It is common in the West to say Russia can't lose the war with Ukraine because Russia can afford to lose men and material all day long until Ukraine crumbles. Do Russians deep down feel that faith is misplaced?
Putin is pushing the formation of additional private military forces in order to fight Ukraine:
Recently additional military contractor organizations have been created by powerful Russian businessmen. To many Russians, this proliferation of private armies seems to be the prelude to another Russian Civil War.
Wagner was the only force to make any measurable advances in the last 6 months. But its relative (if high cost) success may be a threat to Putin. Putin may want more such force for the war while also balancing Wagner.
Russia as a country has ground force split among an army, airborne forces, the Interior Ministry, and Putin's National Guard.
Russia already had--since 2014--separate Donetsk and Luhansk combat formation under Russian control. Now we see regional units being formed all across Russia proper. Units the regional governments must pay for. Units relying on bonus payments that make those troops better compensated than regulars. And with locals providing equipment, better equipped than federal conscripts. We see Wagner growing in power. We see religious units being formed. First Chechen and now the Orthodox Church. And Russia has brought in the notion that Russia is literally fighting Satan in Ukraine.
And I asked:
Will the result be a Thirty Years War fought across Russia? A country with nukes? Will demobilized veterans of Ukraine's military and foreign volunteers offer their services to Russian factions? Will foreign private entities--religions, ethnic groups, companies, and ad hoc groups--finance or even carry out military operations via privatized military operations? Will foreign countries be pulled covertly or overtly in to stabilize portions of Russia or to secure nuclear weapons and research facilities?
Fears are not predictions, of course. But Russians have experienced imperial fragmentation twice in recent history. Russia lost its Eastern European empire in 1989. And Russia lost/happily ejected (but now regret) a lot of regions when the USSR collapsed in 1991. It is not unreasonable to fear a third round even if it is not likely.
Although one loss might be more likely than others.
Sometimes I think that Western talk of potential internal political unrest in Russia is the West's propaganda response to Russia's nuclear saber rattling designed to slow down Western arms shipments to Ukraine.
So far the West has managed Russian nuclear threats to arm and support Ukraine--but not defied without delays. And so far Russia has not shrunk from waging war despite any unease about internal divisions.
How will these competing fears shape the end of the Winter War of 2022?
The raids are meant to embarrass Putin, not kill Russian soldiers and civilians. Some of the Russian responses to the raids did that, notably by doing the same things they did in Ukraine, like bombing and using thermobaric weapons in civilian areas, looting (of Russian instead of Ukrainian civilians), etc.. Most of the responses against the Ukrainian-backed Russian militias were ineffectual, which is typical of the Russian Army Putin has created to fight in Ukraine.
One more bit of chaos in Russia. But the ineffectual Russian performance against these raids isn't apparent in southern Ukraine where Ukraine's forces are attacking.
UPDATE: Spies gathered on the side at the Shangra-La Dialogue according to a number of sources:
Among the roughly 24 intelligence chiefs at the informal meeting were the heads of U.S. and Chinese intelligence. India’s top intelligence chief was also present, as were chiefs from the Five Eyes network (the U.S., the U.K., Canada, Australia and New Zealand), but no other attendees were identified. It was noted that Russia was not represented – whether by its choice or by the organizers’ exclusion is unclear.
Huh. India appears to be ready to walk away from long-time partner and arms supplier, Russia.
And did America and China discuss ending the Winter War of 2022? Maybe:
Another, even more probable possibility is that the two countries, sensing Russia’s decline, want to think of what the future might look like, hoping to prevent conflict between the two remaining superpowers.
Huh. Friedman concludes, "This is a major event in the shifting balance of power."
Again, huh.
UPDATE: Defiance:
Russia's most powerful mercenary said on Sunday that his Wagner fighters would not sign any contract with Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu just hours after the defence ministry sought to bring volunteer detachments under its sway.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
