Erdogan won Turkey's run off election. Darn. We remain on a break for a little longer. Europeans are relieved that they don't have to reject the pro-West challenger's efforts to join the EU. Will Erdogan clear Sweden for NATO membership now that the election is past?
The new presidential campaign season is starting. And now for something completely different:
The Taliban have a use for some of our weapons they captured: "The Taliban and Iran exchanged heavy gunfire Saturday on the Islamic
Republic's border with Afghanistan, killing and wounding troops while
sharply escalating rising tensions between the two countries amid a
dispute over water rights." A silver lining, I suppose. I missed the news last week.
The multi-war rumbles on: "Airstrikes attributed to Israel targeted Syria's capital city late Sunday, the first such strikes in nearly a month, Syrian state media reported." This is part of the Iran-Israel conflict.
Illegitimate federal agency power expansion reversed in one area. More please. The statutes are a guideline for agencies to push to and beyond their limits as long as the agencies can get away with it.
Russia fired Iskander ballistic missiles at Kiev in a rare daylight assault.
Huh: "Saudi Arabia said it executed two Bahraini men on Monday after being convicted of belonging to a militant group wanting to destabilize the two Mideast kingdoms." Iran has supported Shia unrest in the past. But after the Iran-Saudi detente deal, Iran really can't say anything.
Jane Fonda wants white men in prison because of *checks notes* global warming. There is but one appropriate response:
Will it be Trump-Biden 2.0 in 2024? Look, I voted for Trump in 2020. He was screwed. The media rigged it. Was there voting fraud? That's guaranteed given how widespread mail-in ballots lacked safeguards. Local election officials only had to not look to let it happen. Was it decisive? I doubt it. Media propaganda was the real thumb on the scales. That doesn't mean we owe it to Trump to support him. Politicians are a means to policy ends. I moved on. Mind you, if he's the candidate I'll vote for him. If he isn't, Trump's most dedicated fans must do the same. Strap in.
BRICS is no currency threat to America. Too many members have high interest in preventing the success of rival members of the grouping. Tip to Instapundit.
Friends: "The coast guard of the United States, Japan and the Philippines will hold trilateral maritime exercise in the South China Sea this week, the first such manoeuvres between them as a time of growing concern about China's moves in the region."
The XXB variant: "Last week when a Chinese senior health adviser projected 65 million COVID-19 cases per week in China by June, some health experts sounded the alarm." Huh. No indication it is particularly lethal.
Friends: "Japan’s three military branches will participate in the United States’ Large Scale Global Exercise 2023, according to a Wednesday news release from the Japanese Defense Ministry’s Joint Staff Office (JSO)."
Leaning forward: "Japan put its ballistic missile defences on alert on Monday and vowed to shoot down any projectile that threatens its territory, after North Korea notified it of a planned satellite launch between May 31 and June 11."
I don't know what to make of Peter Zeihan. He's supposedly a geopolitical genius. Maybe. Or he has a knack for self-promotion who tells convincing stories.
Can France refocus on its corner of former colonial Africa to defeat Russian and Turkish influence there? If so, France has to help civilians and promote rule of law. Good in theory. But the local governments prefer help from countries content to let the locals be corrupt. Like Russia, especially. It's a dilemma.
For me, the controversy over taking white male roles in entertainment and making them female and/or minority in new version isn't about fearing or hating minority or female actors. It's about hating stories that use the new characters to promote woke crap rather than tell a story. I liked the new Equalizer movies. I liked the new Battlestar Galactica. Because the new characters were part of a good story and you were invested in them. By injecting woke, the basic physical characteristics of the actors are the point, relying on bashing viewers who don't like the character or story by accusing them of being haters.
French military intelligence: "'Reinforced since February 24th, 2022, we no longer focus on a 60-degree angle between Western Africa and the Middle-East dictated by the fight against terrorism, but we constantly look around with a 360-degree spectrum, not only geographically-speaking, but also with the integration of space, cyber and underwater domains,' Carcy said." Why it isn't a 270-degree spectrum.
The Czechs will by the CV90 infantry fighting vehicle. The Czechs will send Ukraine its Soviet BMP-2s being replaced. And the CV90 soon may get a "combat proven" stamp of approval in Ukrainian service.
Crimea is already nullified as a Russian naval asset: "Russia continues to keep most of its Black Sea fleet in the port of Novorossiysk, which is on the east coast of the Black Sea." This helps protect Odessa.
I've noted that Wagner is focused on helping Russia and not helping Mali: "The Mali military government use of Russian Wagner Group mercenaries has not proved very effective for Mali but has provided Russian with an opportunity to get past the sanctions imposed on Russia and obtain needed weapons for Russian forces in Ukraine."
Via Instapundit, are home prices about to collapse? I've already experienced one collapse. My home value is 50% higher than my purchase price. But that's over 20 years. Luckily I wasn't looking for an investment but a place to live. And any losses will be paper losses since I plan on staying here. But it is a bit demoralizing. Unless another dip lasts long enough to depress my taxable value. Which would help long after value recovers.
You may recall my unease over the last six months because I assumed Russia was building an offensive reserve within Russia. But I never read anything about this despite the fact that I believed it was a completely obvious course of action. Well, "Russia is rebuilding an offensive force in Russia but this process won’t be complete for another year." I've long worried that Russia will rebuild such a force before Ukraine can exploit Russia's first-year losses. Is it a race? Also, how big is it? And is it getting better equipment as older stuff is sent to the front to hold the line?
Avoiding being a missile magnet.
Agreed in principle: "Currently fielded transportation platforms lack the mobility and
lethality necessary to insert these forces over the sea to key terrain,
maneuver within the restricted maritime environment of China’s first
island chain, and persist while enabling the tasks envisioned by A Concept for Stand-In Forces." Preaching to the TDR choir. Although the author's solution may not be quite right. But the issue is real.
Is this a lesson that Russia learned? "Our hesitance [to arm Ukraine] telegraphs to Russia that by continuing to assault Ukraine, it can wait us out—a lesson consistent with the course of the U.S. withdrawals from Iraq and Afghanistan." That's a lesson of Afghanistan. But I think only Americans wrongly learned this lesson from Iraq. I'd bet Russia has more of an appreciation that America won. And remember, Obama and Biden took credit for the win.
This has alarmed Israel and caused them to raise the idea of striking Iran: "Israeli officials are watching tensely as intelligence indicates Iran is working on the detonation mechanisms needed for a nuclear bomb." I worry this is part of Iran's red herring plan to avoid such a strike. Which may mean Iran has its nuclear deterrent already. Could Iran's seemingly pointless global naval deployments have hidden a mission to return nukes to Iran? Could North Korea have moved working nukes to a friendly location--say Venezuela--where Iran picked them up?
I pushed back on the notion that America placed a "bad bet" on India to resist China. This author agrees: "But India has never pretended it would behave like a treaty ally of the United States, and the occasional divergences between New Delhi’s and Washington’s interests do not mean the U.S. investment in the bilateral relationship is misguided."
Is Erdogan going to keep blocking Sweden's NATO bid? Or is this just a hard block before allowing a decent interval before dropping objections? But then there is Hungary's Orban to deal with.
Do EU confusion and floundering over Turkey and its record on helping Ukraine mean the "EU empire" is crumbling? Only if you assume achieving a result and not the power to try to achieve results is the EU's goal.
Um: I'm deeply offended you don't think I'm a potential rapist. And I'm not sure I can forgive you. Tip to Instapundit.
End of an era: "China’s era of rapid growth is over. Its recovery from zero-Covid is stalling. And now the country is facing deep, structural problems in its economy." I've long been a China miracle skeptic. Can Xi Jinping survive the consequences?
Enemies of the state. And now for something completely different:
If Ukraine defeats Russia's ground forces and compels Russia to agree to a favorable peace settlement, Russia will still have the lovely parting gift of Belarus far more securely inter-weaved with Russia. Which would fit with a pre-war speculation. Which assumed Putin understood his military's limitations.
I was a little disturbed that Ukrainian drones targeted civilian areas in Moscow. Despite what Russia is doing to Ukraine's civilians it seems wrong. Even if revenge is good, Ukraine can't match the scale. But it sounds like the drones had no warheads. It was a propaganda strike. Ukraine should follow China's example when Japan invaded it:
The government has a strict limit on its actions because it must presume defendants innocent until proven guilty. But the government has ways to improve its odds of proving guilt--or at least getting in the way of defendants creating reasonable doubt. Rule of law dies a little more. Because enemies of the state don't deserve that quaint notion.
I worry not only that we have morons leading us. I also worry that the voters who put those morons in office agree with them. The morons believe they can damage America for partisan purposes because America is great enough to endure their idiocy while getting partisan objectives. For decades they have been right. How long will that be true? Tip to Instapundit.
Octopolis. Via Instapundit.
How wonderful: "The Army is pushing forward with the procurement and fielding of its new Infantry Squad Vehicle (ISV) assault buggy despite years of documented issues with the platform, the service recently announced." It fills a ridiculous niche, but it is getting better!
Is Italy secretly sending Centauro heavy armored cars to Ukraine? It has a minimal-recoil 105mm gun that is better than the low-pressure 105mm gun on French AMX-10 heavy armored cars.
2001 is calling, and it's asking for its aggressively dangerous Chinese assertion of baseless territorial control: "The U.S. military said Tuesday that a Chinese fighter jet flew aggressively close to a U.S. reconnaissance aircraft over the South China Sea, forcing the American pilot to fly through the turbulent wake."
As I've mentioned, some F-16s for Ukraine would be nice--and I'm in favor of this--but not decisive: "The F-16 jets that the Ukrainian military is touting as a potential game-changer in its conflict with Russia will either be restricted to defense or deployed in very high-risk operations, according to people who’ve flown the planes in combat."
Iranians and Palestinian leaders find dead Palestinians convenient. A few dead Israelis are a bonus.
Romania retired the last Mig-21s in Europe.
NATO members mull secret plan to fight Russia "that will detail for the first time since the Cold War how the alliance would respond to a Russian attack"? Wow. How odd that a defensive military alliance would--finally--develop a plan to fight the most obvious military threat in Europe. Note that notwithstanding Russia's paranoid accusations, NATO hasn't had a plan to fight Russia for the last 30 years. I'm not worried about secrecy. During the Cold War, the broad outline of plans became visible. I have several games on the subject. With more media options, we'll know.
Did the West basically decide it will help Ukraine win--and not just avoid defeat? A Ukrainian victory would have been more likely if that decision had been made eight months ago. Russia was given time to recover from its initial debacle.
I'm not against birthright citizenship. I'm against illegal immigration. Ending birthright citizenship creates people who look and sound like an American but who aren't. That creates a dangerous two-tier system that ghettoizes people who have actually assimilated. Which also means that citizens will be as suspect as illegals because many illegals will act like citizens--and actually act more American than recent legal immigrants. Do we want that kind of broad government harassment? The solution to our illegal immigration problem is to control our borders to compel would-be immigrants to go through our legal system--and not to be looking at a dangerous Plan B.
The neglected--again (after Vietnam and after Iraq)--Navy small boats for operations on rivers and coastal areas. Tip to Instapundit. So what does NECC do these days, anyway?
Maybe this is a good idea for business and consumers: "The Federal Reserve said Wednesday it will launch its long-awaited instant payment service FedNow in July." And maybe this good idea should be in government hands rather than letting the private sector meet what is apparently a need because banks and businesses are too ignorant to work on that. And maybe this isn't a step toward a digital currency. And maybe a digital currency won't eliminate paper currency. And maybe government control of all financial transactions isn't a bad idea that will lead the government to punish people it doesn't like outside of the judicial system. Maybe.
Is the debt ceiling deal bad? Clearly. The question is whether it is as good as we can get with Democrats controlling the senate and White House.
Via Instapundit, is this a threat to America? "The Biden administration has resumed the public disclosure of sensitive nuclear data as part of a treaty with Russia that Moscow pulled out of months ago[.]" Maybe we know all we need to know about Russian nuclear weapons. Say, here's possibly related news (and a warning about American readiness). And perhaps we share because we think it is a good idea to reassure the needlessly paranoid Russians.
North Korea's satellite launch malfunctioned: "Following its malfunction, the rocket tumbled down and crashed into the sea off the west coast of the Korean Peninsula." Off the west coast?
The Russian BM-21PD multiple-rocket launcher, which fires short-range depth charges.
Avoid war with China by *checks notes* abandoning Taiwan. Another application of the "Let the Wookie win" strategy.
I'm not getting fired up about a study that says left-wing people have some really dark traits. How many so-called studies over the years have claimed conservatives are really awful people--perhaps Nazis? If this convenient study is embraced, are we admitting the past studies were valid? I'm just not impressed with the scholarship of such a biased cohort of academics on anything. Or sure, maybe they finally got one right.
I'm hearing stuff about AI girlfriends. Did Harry Mudd teach us nothing?!
The Americans told the family of a killed Iraqi interpreter a lie rather than tell the family he was killed by friendly fire. This is not a scandal. A lot of American families have been told that friendly fire casualties were from enemy action. Friendly fire is common in war. And much more common in the past. But it is bad for morale to tell families that ugly truth.
FFS: "Equipment drawn from the U.S. Army’s Kuwait-based pre-positioned stock bound for Ukraine was not ready for combat operations, the Pentagon’s inspector general has found." We mocked the Russians for similar widespread problems with stored equipment when they invaded Ukraine! This stuff is prepositioned overseas because it is faster to only fly in troops than to also ship the equipment across multiple oceans. But if it doesn't work it is pointless!
Chinese spies pretending to be tourists target American bases in Alaska. How many are here who will take direct action during a war?
Three more states are sending troops to the Mexico border to provide some security. More than a hundred years ago my grandfather was sent there to protect America from civil war in Mexico. Today's threat is caused by civil divisions here that lead the American government to allow threats to spill over into America.
The U.S. will let General Electric make warplane engines for India in India.
Heads up: "Iran is arming militants in Syria for a new phase of lethal attacks against U.S. troops in the country, while also working with Russia on a broader strategy to drive Americans from the region[.]" Did I call it, or what?
REFORPOL as I've long wanted has begun. Let's make sure contractors don't ef up the prepositioned equipment sets. Tip to Instapundit.
F-16s and DASH helmets for Ukraine.
Interesting: "The Russian military command has likely ordered Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov’s forces to begin offensive operations in Ukraine following the withdrawal of Wagner Group forces from Bakhmut."
So, Ukraine invented ... guided torpedoes? "Ukraine, finding that their attack USVs (Unmanned Surface Vessels) were vulnerable to Russian heavy machine-gun fire before the target ship could be hit, decided to try attacking from underwater. This led to the rapid development of the Toloka TLK-150 UUV." I guess the early panty flinging over USVs is over.
Please clap: "French President Emmanuel Macron sought to mend fences with Eastern Europeans at a conference in Slovakia, telling an audience largely from the region that he wants a more collaborative relationship with ex-Soviet states." He has a lot to atone for. Really. Eastern Europeans shouldn't join the other guys.
To be fair, the existence of a document with an accusation of crimes is not proof of Biden crimes. Tip to Instapundit.
The Air Force and MIT demonstrated jam-resistant "AI-enhanced magnetic navigation called MagNav". Tip to Instapundit.
Debating Taliban 2.0. FFS. Don't think measuring whether the Taliban are 10 or 20% less horrible than the original is a great debate to have. Trees, forest.
Biden tripped and fell on a stage. He appears uninjured. Saturday Night Live will ceaselessly mock his clumsiness as a symbol of his poor mental capaci--oh, who am I kidding? SNL will keep giving him affectionate tongue baths. Tip to Instapundit. And now for something completely different:
The signal will always get through: "The Pentagon confirmed it has hired SpaceX to provide communications services to Ukraine through the company’s constellation of more than 4,000 Starlink satellites."
The 3rd Marine Littoral Regiment exercised in the Philippines to practice making the South China Sea a living Hell for the PLA Navy from positions on Luzon. I won't be happy until it has more anti-ship missiles.
Yep, Erdogan won reelection in Turkey.
Russia's Kh-101 stealth cruise missile.
The U.S.-China diplomatic struggle for Pacific Island nation friendship. Heartily endorsed.
Huh.
Egad: "Hidden code in many Gigabyte motherboards invisibly and insecurely downloads programs." Tip to The Morning Briefing. I'm totally not really paranoid--just prescient. Say, about infected motherboards.
Griffin Shock is just the first step for the NATO numbers needed in the east. Crawl, walk, run.
Sniffing for nukes: "The U.S. Air Force is updating its radiation surveillance aircraft fleet with three new three WC-135R aircraft." Also, the 2006 North Korean test was likely faked rather than a "fizzle" as I'd heard it. Too little plutonium calculated. From the sniffing aircraft.
Russia isn't cooperating with OPEC in keeping oil prices higher.
Don't let the quest for good be the enemy of the less-bad: "House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif.) notched a victory for himself and for Republicans with Wednesday's passage of the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023. The bill will raise the debt ceiling through 2025, claw back pandemic and IRS spending, improve welfare programs, speed up permitting, reinstate student loan payments, and cut non-defense discretionary spending. The bill also has an enforcement mechanism: If Congress fails to pass the required appropriations bills by January 1, overall discretionary spending will be cut by 1 percent." A lot more should have been done. Could it have been done right now? I doubt it.
Western culture is not white supremacy in action: "Western culture, though imperfect, has produced a wealth of great ideas: that all people are created equal, that we are endowed by our Creator with natural rights, that truth exists and is discoverable." Show me a less imperfect culture. Most will be truly awful if examined as closely as Western culture is picked apart by the left. Tip to Instapundit. And don't forget America's role in creating the modern, free West.
The left says the right are haters. Who are the haters? "This, of course, is classic projection. No one hates their political opponents or revels in their own imagined superiority like leftists." Via Instapundit.
Taiwan Strait drama: "USS Chung-Hoon (DDG-93) and HMCS Montreal (FFH-336) were transiting the strait when a PLAN warship cut across the bow of Chung-Hoon, according to a report from Canadian outlet Global News." China illegally claims the strait as its territorial waters.
The Army learns to operate in the Arctic. Russian aggression is not only an eastern Europe problem. Canada has little interest in defending Europe post-Cold War. Although with a huge ethnic Ukrainian population it has leaned forward on helping Ukraine. But surely the Eh Team will show up for the Arctic, right?
LOL! I made my meme before seeing that. Just saying. Tip to Instapundit.
For decades I learned and read that America accepted the "One-China" principle. Only in the last couple decades have I seen that refined. To repeat, "The United States operates under its own one-China policy that acknowledges the PRC’s position towards Taiwan without accepting PRC territorial claims over the island." China would have the world believe America agrees with China.
American interest in Central Asia dropped when we didn't need it for sustaining our forces in Afghanistan. So I agree putting much effort in there is a waste of limited American resources. But saying Russia and China compete on separate planes, so "neither struggles with the other for influence" must be modified with "so far". So stirring the pot to stoke friction between China and Russia would be a great game to play.
I remain perplexed that Democrats' sudden conversion still continues: "[Democratic] U.S. Sen. Bob Casey Jr. repeatedly emphasized the need to stop Russian dictator Vladimir Putin 'at all costs'[.]" I shouldn't complain. Welcome to the party, pal.
In addition to Wagner and the Chechens, companies, oligarchs, former military officers, and even the defense minister, Shoigu, have established their own ground forces. Regional governments recruit their own volunteers, too. "Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin himself remarked: 'Everyone is saying that there will be a power struggle at some point, and everyone needs their own army.'" Add in the multiple state ground forces and intelligence services. What is the result of this fractured military power?
We're trying to help Iran and Sunni jihadis gain influence in Iraq, aren't we? "The Biden administration is prepared to shell out up to $12 million to teach Iraqis how to fight climate change and appreciate 'gender diversity,' an effort it says will help strengthen democracy in the Middle Eastern nation." The administration says its initiative will help Iraq deal with global issues. But local issues are a more immediate threat. And also, is the Biden administration saying that an Islamic country isn't already perfect with its own indigenous beliefs and practices? That kind of colonial-mindset Islamophobia is problematic, isn't it? Tip to Instapundit.
An Egyptian police officer crossed into Israel where he killed three Israeli troops. The officer was killed in the exchange of gunfire. Was this a tragedy during a drug smuggling attempt? Or a case of Moslems Gone Wild Jihadi? Still, what an odd concept that a country would defend its border, eh?
Ceasefires just aren't sticking in Sudan despite American and Saudi urging.
