Weekend Data Dump

Armenia would welcome more Russian troops in light of the drubbing that Azerbaijan inflicted in the recent war.

About all you can say so far is that Biden hasn't interrupted the vaccine production and distribution system he inherited. Which is good.

Texas is not a symbol of preparing for global warming climate change. It was a once-in-a-century cold wave. And Texas just got an award for renewable energy, which it invests heavily in. Because of heavy subsidies. And if Senator Schumer's scolding of Texas for failing to prepare for climate change is sincere, didn't Schumer just admit that New York could tax its citizens to Hell and back to prepare on its own without worrying about the rest of us? Indeed, isn't his charge an admission that the so-called solutions don't have to be national or international?

Somalia. Clusterfuck with a UN seat. And don't get your hopes up for South Sudan, either.

Looking back at Russia's drive-by shooting of Georgia in 2008. The war inspired a Russian drive to reform and rebuild their military. Nukes had the priority.  And yes, even though Georgia initiated an offensive in their own legally recognized territory, Russia started the war. Russia planned for and set up Georgia for an act of aggression.

This will be one of Biden's challenges in "restoring" the trans-Atlantic NATO alliance: "Only nine of the alliance’s 30 countries meet the agreed goal of spending 2% of GDP on defense (the U.S., Greece, Britain, Bulgaria, Estonia, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Romania)." Funny, I think Trump mentioned that issue once or twice.

Here's another NATO issue: "Many of the NATO nations don’t want to be put into a binary choice between Washington and Beijing, and the European Union in particular wants strong economic and tech relationships with China. This will wear away at NATO cohesion." [emphasis added] A major point of the EU is to wear away NATO cohesion.

Iraqi Kurdistan used to be a bastion of security. Iran has penetrated the region to wage war on Turkey and America, while pressuring the Kurdish government. 

As it turns out, Russia's economic problems from the Xi Jinping Flu didn't seem to have been worse than Russia's long-term decline. Russia's problems continue to be the mismatch between their caviar border length and their spam economy.

It is a higher priority for New York City government to punish the Bad Orange Man than to relieve the dreary lives of its lockdown afflicted subjects. Tip to Instapundit.

Wait. What? "On Monday, the Supreme Court threw out several of the remaining challenges to the 2020 presidential election as moot, considering that former President Donald Trump conceded to Joe Biden, who has now become president." So Trump was condemned for challenging the election process after the November election results. But because Trump conceded the election the court won't rule on potential problems in the election process? Is the possibility of more mistrusted elections moot, too? Shouldn't the Supreme Court of the United States want to settle some of that uncertainty when it can? WTF?

As always, the key to comedy gold is timing. 

So the man is getting attention for pointless determination? Why should anyone care? But hey, I'm just relieved this doesn't raise Peak Stupid higher.

It makes as much sense as a lot of things I've heard governments say: "Reviewing changes to the priorities for Covid-19 vaccine recipients, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced Friday that the nation was entering a new phase of vaccine distribution where Capricorns, gymnasts, and childless uncles were now eligible for inoculation."

Who knew being a super hero had so many ... problematic ... aspects?  

Why North Korea's rulers aren't hanging from lamp posts is beyond me. But I've thought that as long as I've been blogging. Things just keep getting worse. Even after the "an idea so crazy it just might work" resort to limited capitalism. It's a long death rattle.

Turkey is pushing an effort to legalize the status of their portion of Cyprus.

France plans to build a new generation of SSBNs to maintain their sea-based nuclear deterrent.

China rejects the charge of genocide against Uighurs in China. The Chinese Communists Party is counting on a technicality, of course. Because until all the Uighurs are dead it doesn't count, I guess.

Russian nuclear missile base defense vehicles. Somebody thinks enemy special forces are pretty badass.

Biden's effort to get Iran back into the nuclear deal is "off to a rocky start." Well sure. Iran knows that Biden is eager for a deal so the mullahs won't sell that rug cheap. And the price will go up with the hostages Iran holds. Iran knows that releasing hostages gives the illusion of an American success. Iran can always take more hostages. And does.

Greece and Turkey continue to throw elbows in the Aegean Sea. 

Lukashenko has endured the protests over his "reelection" fraud. Now he has to pay the price by getting Russia to loan Belarus money. Talk about a debt trap. What is Putin's price?

Collusion. Of course this man was involved. Tip to Instapundit.

Well after the teachers demonstrated such skill at teaching math and reading, why not branch out into "cultural competency?" Tip to Instapundit. 

When food goes bad. Woke people are repulsive and the reason Peak Stupid keeps getting pushed higher.

The Ukrainians and Poles aren't happy with European efforts to expose former Soviet vassal states to energy blackmail via the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. A European Union with the powers of an empire will screw those newly democratic states fully.

If your pro-Democratic activities continue after Biden was inaugurated, your 2020 motivation wasn't being anti-Trump to "save" the Republican Party.

I noted a different angle above on this odd aspect of the Supreme Court election decision: "Monday’s non-decision to turn away a case involving “absentee” ballots that arrived up to three days after the November election as “moot,” was in fact a decision in itself, indeed the Catch-22 of Robertsian jurisprudence. [para] The Court had shunted aside the case (in a 4-4 decision with Roberts siding with the liberals and Amy Coney not yet confirmed) back in October, in effect inviting the plaintiffs to come back after the voting to show injury, if any. Heads, Democrats win, tails, Republicans lose. After all, Trump finally conceded, didn’t he, so what’s the problem? Case closed." Excellent point. But it is not Catch-22. It is Catch-45.

Will Democrats focusing on punishing Republicans and weeding out so-called extremists lead an enemy to believe America is unable to resist an enemy attack? I hope not. Enemies just have to believe they are momentarily stronger than America to launch a war. Ask Iraq how that worked out in 1980.

Wow! Can we dare to start calling them "freedom fries" to honor the French! May they lead the Western counter-attack to success against woke cancel culture.

America went in to Iraq to end a regional conventional threat to allies, reduce terrorism, and end a potential nuclear threat. America went into Afghanistan to end a terrorist threat. In both cases America turned enemies into allies who are now imperfect democracies. Russia is spending money in Ukraine and Syria for what exactly? Ukraine was a conquest and a reaction to the fall of a pro-Russian ally. Crimea secured Russia's Sevastopol bases that Russia once leased from Ukraine. Intervening in Syria to support a brutal dictator was in part, in my opinion, a way of justifying the conquest of Crimea. And now Ukraine and Syria are circular justifications that keep Russia spending on wars it can barely afford.

The Democratic urge to censor speech is frightening. When the government "asks" private entities to suppress freedom of speech, how is that not scary to everyone? Remember when "liberal minded" meant "open minded?" To be fair, too many in the Democratic Party aren't liberals any more. They are progressives. Or worse.

The French-led Sahel anti-terrorist operation.

Well-connected terrorists get a plea deal. Whew! They almost ran afoul of the new Democratic war on domestic political opponents "terrorists." Tip to Instapundit.

"Report: Mansplaining Down But Woman Confusion Up[.]" Heh.

Amnesty International joins the ACLU as just one more far left activist group.

"Women and children first" has a very different meaning for jihadis. I'll say again that I have no idea why feminists aren't the most hard core anti-jihadists in the West. 

Well sure: "Human rights will feature significantly in the Biden administration's relationship with Egypt, Secretary of State Antony Blinken told his Egyptian counterpart on Tuesday[.]" Who do the Egyptians think they are?! China? Egypt isn't as powerful as China, so human rights aren't just something America has to bring up because of our cultural norms before going on with business as usual.

Does Biden really want to reverse Trump's Iran policy? I'm worried. And I worry that Democratic love of Iran's mullahs is more powerful even than hate of Trump. Combined, what can't mullah-run Iran achieve? But I hoped Trump created enough facts to make a return to a Obama policy impossible. Fingers crossed. 

Another story on South Korea's plans for a light carrier to embark F-35Bs. China frowns. 

Desert Storm was thirty years ago. Here are my ten-year anniversary thoughts on lessons from the war.

The sound of boots stomping on human faces--forever: "China's People's Liberation Army soldiers are teaching Hong Kong police the mainland style of marching for the first time[.]"

Europeans complained (falsely) that Trump undermined trans-Atlantic NATO relations. Despite Biden's claim that America is "back," France's Macron makes it clear that the EU wants NATO to die in favor of an EU military. If Trump really had wrecked NATO, the EU would have pinned a medal on Trump. And isn't this a scary thought? "And statesman-to-statesman, the 43-year old French leader will have to convince the 78-year old Biden — or, at least, Biden’s team of Secretary of State Tony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan." That's pretty damning.

Nigeria has sent its navy to deal with Gulf of Guinea piracy.

This seems overly ominous. Will the Chinese really use force--even if disguised--against Britain's carrier group in the South China Sea? Although Lord knows I'm a fan of overwatch just in case.

Brian Stelter is a moron./NOTHING FOLLOWS/

I'm bummed at the shift from micro-aggressions to systemic racism obsession. It was easy to micro-care about micro-aggression allegations. It sounds like a lot of work to systemically not care. Discrimination should of course be fought. And our laws prohibit discrimination. But the woke people who can't see the tremendous progress America has made on this issue are just annoying and dangerous.

Well, this would not shock me. What shocked me was Erdogan's flirtation with mullah-run Iran. Although this is part of my larger bewilderment at Erdogan's decision to alienate America and Israel in favor of reaching out to traditional enemies in Russia and Iran while angering Arabs by treating the former Ottoman realm as Turkey's playground. In the end Turkey may have no friends at all. Still, I'm not sure what to make of an analyst who can say Iran has defeated Saudi Arabia because Aleppo fell to Assad forces four years ago. Syria is a secondary front for the Saudis where actors with more reason to resist Iran there exist. Like the Turks. And the Russians. And most importantly, the Israelis.

Peak Stupid climbs ever higher. 

With the accusations against Governor Cuomo, is #BelieveAllWomen still a thing? No matter how odious Cuomo is, some proof is needed. But activist rhetoric says that the accusation is all that you need. So we'll see. Actual misogynists are fools to identify as anything but a Democrat, eh?

Because the image of "doing something" is worth any amount of other people's money  no matter how pointless?

Hahaha! In light of my above comment on Erdogan's alienation of America, I see this post about Erdogan reconsidering his policy of alienating America.

Fear and corruption defined the USSR's domestic politics. In Russia it is just corruption. Which has crippled Russia's civilian space launch industry. Among other things.

It truly is an accomplishment for China to have ended "extreme poverty." But the price has been high in lives lost and Chinese Communist Party oppression of the people. Does this achievement mean that the Chinese people should move on from the CCP monopoly on power? Perhaps the CCP wasn't thinking this boast through completely, eh?

The fact that a minority that succeeds in America in now "white adjacent" is proof that there is no "systemic racism" in America today. The dominant people in any country set the rules for succeeding. Which in America was white people. White northern European protestant people. Anybody who works within the rules the system rewards can succeed. That's it. Bigotry certainly exists. In all people. Because people are people. And when bigotry was backed by racist laws, minorities were harmed by hindering them from working within the rules the system rewards. But America has moved beyond the racist laws and much of the societal bigotry. We're doing pretty well, actually. Let's not destroy the melting pot that allowed immigrants to build America and achieve the American Dream with their own success (via Instapundit).

Media Kamalamania. Am I wrong in my assumption that Democrats want Biden to last two years and one day to maximize Harris' potential time as president? If I'm wrong, Democrats will want to push Biden out of the way as soon as possible to maximize her first term as president. Does Biden get 100 days to "fix" the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic and then given a gold watch and praise as the moving vans send him on his way? After all, if the pandemic is in the rear view mirror it is harder to hide Biden's limited stamina under cover of social distancing. Tip to Instapundit.

We have met the enemy, and he is us: "Domestic political and cultural divisiveness has become the United States' greatest strategic weakness. This grim vulnerability, exploited by international rivals and authentic domestic enemies who despise the U.S. Constitution, puts the U.S. republic in peril." And we did it to ourselves. The Resistance was a massive force multiplier to a ham-handed and tiny Russian effort to sow division during our 2016 election. And if we lose our freedoms here, our soft power appeal to people around the globe who suffer under autocrats and thug rulers is thrown away. When raw power alone determines how nations take sides, America will be on a dangerous path.

Israel is worried about Iran. Is Israel trying to deter Iran or is Israel preparing to strike Iran? And if striking Iran is the goal, will it be against Iran itself or Iran's proxies in Lebanon and/or Syria?

Is India on a path to win their border disputes with China? China has been gnawing away at Indian control for decades. 

Yeah: "Partisan strife produces high voter turnout, but no big boost for either party[.]" Decades ago those on the left decried low voter turnout in America. I defended it by saying it spoke to the lack of fear of losing. So it was a good sign in contrast to higher voter turnout in other countries where losing was a big deal. So yeah, we got what we they wanted. Good and hard. Tip to Instapundit.

Armenians are unhappy with their government for losing their war with Azerbaijan last year.

Despite my concerns, the Russian vaccine for the Xi Jinping Flu virus seems to work safely. Did China give them a hand with data on the virus?

A trip to the Memory Hole on dismissing the seriousness of the Xi Jinping Flu virus: Nancy Pelosi Visits San Francisco’s Chinatown Amid Coronavirus Concerns. “’[W]hat we’re trying to do today is to say everything is fine here,’ Pelosi said. ‘Come because precautions have been taken. The city is on top of the situation.’” Tip to Instapundit.

Good Lord. That can't be normal modern building practice, can it? I think the ancient Egyptians lost fewer slaves building the Great Pyramid of Giza.

I'm not happy with our budget deficit and climbing debt. But at least we won't pretend to address the problem on the backs of the defense budget.

Nigeria will deploy its military to protect oil infrastructure from thieves. Criminals tapping pipelines has long been a problem. Both financially and ecologically. Will military involvement stop the theft or just give the military a piece of the corruption action to look the other way?

Is it just me or is Germany more active lately in going after Islamist extremists?

So what the polling is saying is that if I ever want to date when the pandemic is over, I have to move. Democrats have gone insane. Truly it is mass hysteria.

The media is nothing but a Biden publicity agency. Tip to Instapundit.

CSI: T-Rex. Tip to Instapundit.

I knew China's Xi Jinping Flu virus anal swab was designed for spite. I guarantee the Uighurs can't protest.

Not-Chinese micro-UAVs.

Russia's parade tank battalion.

This is a light story, but I can't imagine Russia is happy with North Korea over this.

Thoughts on defeating China "over there".

Russia's "doomsday" Poseidon nuclear torpedo. Why would Russia bother with this unless their ICBMs aren't reliable?

It looks like China's fleeting dominance of rare earth elements will be fleeting. "The United States and Australia have more than enough untapped reserves to be self-sufficient. In a single deepwater discovery in 2013, Japan found enough rare earths to meet its needs for centuries[.]" Japan has to figure out how to mine there discovery. But it is there. And there are other sources around the world. 

Huh? Clearly my phone app translator needs this upgrade:
The Bee beat me to it. Hahaha!

Our partisan press requires them to engage in Bizarro World reporting on state Xi Jinping Flu pandemic responses. Tip to Instapundit.

I don't remember seeing this news, but naturally last month's drone attack on a Saudi palace was launched by pro-Iran militias in Iraq. Feel the potential of Iran as America's partner!

The Democrats think they took aim at conservative Christians with this bill. Wait until they discover it hits Moslems, too. That will be fun to watch unfold.

I retain hope that liberals and moderates will regain control of the Democratic Party. Progressives (that is, Marxists) dominate the party now. Liberals and moderates see me as their political foe. Progressives see me as their enemy. And unfortunately the progressive view has infected the liberals to varying degrees.

Even if Biden submits a written "state of the union" address to Congress because he isn't up to a live speech, I think I'll have to support it in the hope it becomes the new norm--as I've often said I want.

Well, it could be an accident. Or Iran attacked it. "A Bahamas-flagged ship, the MV HELIOS RAY, was hit by an explosion in the Gulf of Oman on Thursday, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) and a maritime security firm said on Friday." Later, the plot thickens. The ship is Israeli-owned and the Israelis think Iran did it. Question. Was it just civilian cargo delivered to the Gulf? What other cargo could have been left in the Gulf? Could Israel be prepositioning equipment or supplies in the Gulf area for possible military action?

Why Western feminists aren't the most hard core uncompromising anti-jihadists is beyond me: "Gunmen kidnap more than 300 schoolgirls in increasingly lawless northwest Nigeria[.]"

Keep off the lawn.

Reach out and touch someone.

Well, of course. That's a widely held myth? I remember reading about a Cold War exercise where Red Team guys sent our Blue troops into chaos by getting in the Blue communications network. And in the war on terror we have at times left jihadi web sites or Internet presence up to try and use them for intelligence or to manipulate the Islamists. Still, it is simpler to stop communications than to "turn" them. 

Yeah, we've reached the point where the French are figuratively demanding that we stop calling them french fries. Maybe woke fries? I forget the train of links that got me there.

One thing I miss without cable TV is seeing the relentless media questions to Democratic politicians about whether they reject Governor Cuomo's treatment of senior citizens and women.

Hard pass. 

When near, appear far: an author with a think tank affiliated with the Chinese Foreign Ministry says the idea of China trying to take Taiwan is ridiculous! My view is different.

As I take walks, am I imagining things to think people are getting even more fanatical about masking up even when walking outdoors and passing somebody? With a lot of Cold War Army training on the use of masks, I'm not against them. But on Friday I had a number of people mask up as they saw me walking toward them. I mask going into stores but I'll be damned if I mask walking on uncrowded sidewalks for this virus. What is going on?

Hahaha!

Kids in cages: bad. Bambinos in boxes: good!

How long before the "privacy" of those shipping container shelters allows older migrant kids to bully and abuse younger kids?

Huh: "YOUR TAX DOLLARS AT WORK: COVID Aid Bill Would Pay Federal Employees $1400 a Week if Kids Are Out of School." Democrats stalled giving ordinary Americans a one-time payment of $1,400. But while you have to make do with that, the Democrats' most loyal voters (well, aside from teachers who have their own pallets of cash) get $1,400 more every week. And actually, much of that $1,400 per week will probably go to teachers who are tutoring the children of the well off anyway.

So where's Human Rights Watch when you need them?

I thought China might use their hosting of the 2008 Summer Olympics as cover to invade Taiwan. I was wrong. But was my logic solid? Might typhoon season lead China to use their 2022 Winter Olympics as cover to prepare an invasion before typhoon season starts? Typhoons would hamper an American counter-attack and help China dig in. Or cause America to rush to failure to beat they typhoons. If China digs in, I don't know if we'll ever drive them into the sea. If we don't do that, as I wrote in Military Review, we won't get China off the island.

It's quite the mystery: "Militant attacks are on the rise in Pakistan amid a growing religiosity that has brought greater intolerance, prompting one expert to voice concern the country could be overwhelmed by religious extremism." That dread "religiosity." I wonder what religion is promoting that extremist religiosity, according to the experts? I keep reading and I ponder whether Pakistani Lutherans are getting hopped up on intolerance? Murder-crazed Buddhists? Maybe the dreaded weather-controlling Jeeewws? Mysteries abound in this world. You have to read on to the 18th paragraph to get the only mention of "Islam" or "Muslim" in the long article. Both words--one mention each--are conveniently walled off in that one paragraph. Seriously, bravo on the linguistic gymnastics in that article.

All I know for sure is that this isn't a racist or xenophobic African Ban, now that Biden is president.

Unhappy minorities in Iran's southeast were hit with an Internet shutdown by Iran's government. Pity they chose now to make their unhappiness evident. Biden will throw anybody under the bus to get a glorious Iran Nuclear Deal 2.0.

The people who see micro-dog whistles are just nuts and sad people. How can they go through life like that? TDR has video from the conference. But the stage is rectangular, so no problem:

Meanwhile, communist Antifa scum riot in Portland with nary a concern from the left. Also, if leftists think Republicans are stupid and ill-educated, how are they recognizing such an obscure micro-dog whistle? But hey, for the last four years they were happy with dog whistles rather than getting any actual racist policies. So what do I know? Just how did leftists become so wise in the ways of racists?

Somebody launched missile and "suicide" drone strikes on Saudi Arabia. I guess the Houthis and their Iranian patrons aren't feeling the love of Biden's decision to halt some support for Saudi Arabia's war against the Houthis and their Iranian patrons. At what point does Saudi Arabia join with Israel and other Gulf allies to just hammer Iran?

The good news is that the Biden administration is okay with some energy pipelines. The bad news is that it is a Russian one. I assume a well-funded multi-year investigation into collusion will commence. 

The war in Syria continues to linger on. 

Is this a surprise? "The Biden administration said Sunday it remains open to talks with Iran over the 2015 nuclear deal despite Tehran’s rejection of an EU invitation to join a meeting with the U.S. and the other original participants in the agreement." The Iranians walked away, getting the upper hand. Biden will prove he wants a deal more than Iran says it does. Iran will need "coaxing" with concessions before the talks even begin. And the Biden administration will provide those concessions. Ah, Smart Diplomacy!

CCP Space Program Sets Sights on Uranus

I hate it when that happens (tip to Insanity Wrap):

China Gave US Diplomats Anal COVID Tests ‘In Error,’ American Officials Say

An error? It's not like this is the first time the Chinese have landed on the dark side of the moon.

If this was a point of confusion, maybe the Chinese aren't destined to rule the planet after all.

I regret nothing!

Russian Appeasement Extended Five Years

Russia is scheduled to continue appeasing China for five more years.

China not too subtly bullied Russia into transferring missile defense technology to China: 

As an incentive for Russia to cooperate, and provide the needed tech, Chinese Internet censors were ordered to allow open discussion about Chinese claims on a quarter of the Russian Far East and most of the prime coastal areas. China never cancelled these claims, even in the 1940s and 50s when China was very dependent on Russia.

This Chinese pressure made Russia's appeasement of China less concealed. And have no doubt. What Russia is doing is appeasement:

Russia complains loudly about American and NATO plots against Mother Russia when in fact NATO in Europe has mostly disarmed while America was happy to not think about Russia much.

From our point of view, this makes no sense. Can't Russia see that the West is no threat while China is the threat? Why not work with us?

Well, from the Russian point of view, Russia is acting very logical.

Russian power collapsed in 1991, leaving their Far East vulnerable to China whose power soon began to rise even as Russia's power continued to erode.

Was it logical for Russia to openly treat China as a threat and cozy up to the West that was disarming and never going to help Russia defend the Amur River line?

Not really, when you think about it. Yes, in the end, Russia will have to recognize that China is a threat and not NATO. But we're far from whenever "the end" is and until then Russia can't afford to anger China.

So Russia sells weapons designed to point China's modernizing military out to sea against America, Taiwan, and Japan rather than against Russia.

This isn't just clever politics. This is a form of appeasement.

The Russian-Chinese treaty of 2001 that muted Chinese claims was set to expire this year. The treaty also required Russia to provide military technology to China. Hence the Chinese propaganda offensive on territorial claims to push Russia to share missile defense technology.

You recall the Chinese claims, right?

Does China seem like the kind of country that just lets old territorial claims die? And for China, how old is the 19th century, really?

But rather than let the treaty expire, at the end of last year the treaty was extended 5 years: 

The Russian-Chinese Treaty of Good Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation that expires in July 2021 will be extended for another five years with its basic provisions remaining intact, while introducing some modifications, the Russian ambassador in Beijing, Andrey Denisov, said on Tuesday.

Man, that got little air play in the West, eh? I look for this and saw nothing. It took a web search to get the December 2020 news. I assume the basic provisions are that Russia provides technology (while it can before China passes them by in all defense technology) in exchange for China being quiet about the border. 

The missile defense technology transfer really hurts Russia, which relies on nukes for territorial integrity. Especially in the weakly held Far East. 

And Russia will need to treat NATO like an enemy for five more years. So Moscow's moment of clarity is put off.

I wonder what the treaty "modifications" were? I assumed Russia would have to pay a price for an extension of China's silence on the border.

Clearly Russia did not reach economic and military benchmarks by 2020 that would have allowed Russia to end their policy of appeasement. One more 5-year plan will do the trick, eh?

Luckily for Russia, China isn't ready to move beyond that treaty and declare Russia's Far East a core Chinese interest. Yet.

Army Deep Strike Revisited?

Can the Army strike deep on a battlefield?

That's what the Army wants to demonstrate:

The Army will host an interservice aviation exercise in May to prove its Chief of Staff’s recent claim that the service can bring “speed and range” to future battlefields. Known as EDGE21 — Experimentation Demonstration Gateway Event 2021 – and held at Dugway Proving Ground, the experimental wargame will be the Army’s latest bid to prove it plays a vital role in far-ranging and fast-paced All Domain Operations.

The article summary states:

New drones – launched by helicopters in flight and built by the Pentagon's Strategic Capabilities Office – will reach out “hundreds of kilometers.” Marine F-35s, 82nd Airborne troops, and Special Ops will also participate in exercise EDGE21. 

In some ways this is the Army reacting to the lack of Air Force interest in prioritizing close air support for the Army. This especially applies to long-range artillery.

And if the Army can reach hundreds of kilometers behind enemy lines it will help the Army. If the Army can take out enemy air defenses and air bases, that will enable Air Force ground support.

But I worry that the job of paving the way for helicopter deep strikes behind enemy lines is too difficult. In that post I note a very old pre-Blogger TDR post (scroll down to "Deep Strike" on January 30, 2004):

During the Iraq War, the Army launched a deep strike ahead of 3^rd ID to attack Republican Guard elements guarding the approaches to Baghdad . The attack was repelled by intense ground fire and we lost an Apache. The crew survived and was freed late in the war.

Many said this showed that deep strike was flawed. And this seemed like a real lesson of the war since we really anticipated our attack helicopters would be used behind our front lines to strike advancing Soviet armor in the Fulda Gap. We changed that after the Cold War was won. This battle seemed to show that the concept is flawed.

Yet I was puzzled. Deep strike certainly worked in Desert Storm. The Iraq War answers this. According to the authors, the attack was smaller than first planned and delayed by hours; failed to attack from a better direction; lacked good intel on the target; and squandered an artillery strike mission that occurred hours earlier, when the helicopters were supposed to attack. Instead of suppressing the Iraqis as the helicopters attacked, the artillery mission just warned the Iraqis that we were up to something.

So I'll suspend my judgment on deep strike by our helicopters. 

Using drones to go deep may be the key rather than helicopters. They'd spot for fires units.

So for now I'm more interested in the deep strike artillery the Army is developing to pick up the slack until the Air Force can intervene directly in the ground battle.

But I'll wait to see how this deep strike works out before judging. The Army has had a lot of time to work on this.

Align Forces for Priorities

Assuming America defends its gains in the Middle East, we don't need carrier battle groups there.

Hear, hear:

It’s time to downgrade the Persian Gulf region on the Pentagon’s list of strategic priorities—and let the new, healthier consensus on China and Russia prevail. Let’s align naval operations and force deployments with national strategy at long last—and husband resources for where they are needed most.

As a general rule, we need to focus naval power on China by bringing it in from less important theaters where allies can take up the slack.

And specifically in regard to carrier air power, why can't our many allies in the region host American land-based air power? And if the Air Force can't handle that for some odd reason, why can't the Navy send carrier air wing elements to operate from land bases?

Our power in the Middle East can decline even as we maintain our ability to defend the gains made by our increased military commitments over the last three decades.

But this shift should not mean we refuse to defend our gains. Let's hope that Biden's clear signals he is "tired of dealing with the Middle East" doesn't abandon our gains.

Speak Harshly and Carry a Small Stick No More?

Will the British attempt to conduct counter-insurgency (COIN) again after their Iraq War debacle?

The British realized something was wrong with their Iraq COIN approach in early 2008:

Monday, March 24, 2008, marked five years to the month after the British army arrived in Iraq, preaching to the Americans their apparent expertise in counterinsurgency operations and understanding of the manifold ways of, in the historical British upper-class vernacular, “the Arab.” This is the story of how that complacency—the claimed legacy of imperial policing and Belfast; of Greece-to-your-Rome and barely disguised Anglo-American contempt—became apparent.

The British army committed that bafflingly common 21st-century failing: It exuded superiority toward an exterior entity, then felt genuine surprise when that mean-spiritedness did not generate admiration and fellow feeling in return.

And as the British army in Basra, southern Iraq, experienced what some observers would later describe as the greatest British military disaster since Suez in 1956, or the fall of Singapore in 1942—though others dispute the drama of those comparisons—the institution itself would, on a wider level, start to engage in a wholesale (and needed) program of reform.

I was unhappy with Britain's record of pacifying Basra as Iraqi forces went after Iran's Shia allies there:

The failure of the British to leave a better Basra for the Iraqis is all too clear after round three. So don't expect Basra to be repaired in ten days when the British helped build what the Iraqis face now over Britain's nearly four years of control. (And I say this as a friend of Britain who values Britain's friendship and help. But too many [people] were willing to belittle our fight in the center these last five years by pointing to the so-called success of the "softly-softly" British approach, which in retrospect only allowed cooperative Shia thugs to run the streets to allow the British a decent interval to retreat.)

The region was often relatively quiet because the British left the Iranians alone to penetrate the region with local allies, despite British boasts of success:

The British like to complain of our cowboy pacification efforts in the Sunni triangle and point to their quiet Shia zone as the example we should follow.

Well, after two July attacks on British mass transit that show us how the British cleverly created an enemy within, we also know that the British have been sophisticated enough to turn Basra into a budding Londonistan. They've allowed the security services there be infiltrated by Islamists.

And the British apparently compounded that hands-off light military approach with an attitude of  "Sod off you bloody wogs!" 

The Iraqis succeeded despite the British failure (and despite the American media eagerness to declare Iraqi defeat). 

Basra 2008 was ugly but it was a victory, albeit without style points. The initial article reminds us of that. But don't forget this fact, too:

A victory described in detail is indistinguishable from defeat.

The details in the Atlantic article certainly highlight the ugliness of the campaign. And the comparisons to Suez or Singapore are indeed highly overwrought.

But what is Britain's lesson from their record? Is it to reinvigorate counter-insurgency practice? We aren't told in the article which simply focuses on Basra. 

If COIN has been restored to the British kit, it is certainly just something for an advisory role. The British army is now a expeditionary force part of a largely off-shore global role that does not seem to anticipate extended conventional warfare.

Every Marine a Tactician

Times are changing in the Marine Corps.

Every Marine a rifleman tactician:

Under Berger’s vision, grunts will be expected to fight in small units that will be highly mobile and independent, and often dispersed far from headquarters. The new course is aimed at giving rookie Marines the tactical and cognitive skills to act on their own, and takes a “fundamentally different approach” than its eight-week predecessor, the Corps said.

“To be more dispersed and more precise, we need privates now that can operate by themselves and don’t have to be told and shown where to go all the time,” said Lt. Col. Walker Koury, the training battalion’s commander.

This sounds a lot like my advocacy in the USNI Blog for Marine training to focus on tactical skills:

The U.S. Marine Corps proudly says every Marine is a rifleman. But what happens if even enemy insurgents and militia fighters are just as accurate? New technologies are hastening that day of reckoning. Marines must cope by developing new training priorities, technology, and tactics to maintain their competitive advantage.

My proposal assumes that rifle marksmanship is less important as precision rifles enter the inventory. So in part my assumption is not fact. Although this improved rifle sight is a concurrent beginning of that development:

The Marine Corps has started fielding a new rifle optic designed to adjust for close and long-range targets for more precise shooting.

Marine Corps Systems Command's Program Manager for Infantry Weapons began fielding the Squad Common Optic, or SCO, in January for the M4 and M4A1 carbines and the M27 Infantry Automatic Rifle, according to a Feb. 18 announcement.

It is just a better sight. But it is setting the trend for the technology shift to technological marksmanship. 

Americans will field this first. But enemies will follow. Then we will really need those tacticians.

UPDATE: This is good:

Marine Corps marksmanship officials this week rolled out the final version of a new, more realistic rifle qualification course that will force Marines to put lethal hits on stationary and moving targets the same as they would in combat.

And it seems like it flows into training to gain tactical positions to take the shot even when the technology provides the accuracy.

The EU Seeks Political Power and Nothing More

The European Union is made up of democratic member states--for now. Stop trying to pretend that the EU has anything to do with governing competence or democracy. Well, other than killing both of them.

The European Union admits to pandemic vaccine failure:

It’s an admission that reveals deeper problems in institutional Europe. Bluntly, the EU isn’t as effective as it likes to think it is in many policy areas where it took over responsibility from member states.

Do not become confused. "Institutional Europe" is not the same as Europe. The proto-imperial institutional Europe EU doesn't take over responsibilities from European member states in order to have more effective policies. The EU takes over responsibilities in order to have more power. 

The means are pretty much the ends. One day, with enough vaccine and cheese regulations in place, the EU can finally strip away the prefix. The war-mongering peasantry be damned if it doesn't work out for them.

Oh, and at this point the author of that EU article is just effing with us, right? 

The world’s largest economic bloc is proving erratic as a champion of democracy, too.

I nearly spewed my beer across the screen when I got to the "champion of democracy" part. 

And yeah, I know what time it is. It's St. Patrick's Day somewhere, right?

Exit question: how much longer will authors feel the need to issue ritual denunciations of Trump in their articles when there is no real point?

Lather, Rinse, Fission

Iran wants nukes and the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal was always a means of shielding that drive.

No! Way!

The U.N. nuclear watchdog found uranium particles at two Iranian sites it inspected after months of stonewalling, diplomats say, and it is preparing to rebuke Tehran for failing to explain, possibly complicating U.S. efforts to revive nuclear diplomacy.

Notice that the Iranians had the power to stonewall inspections for months. Despite the article reference to "snap" inspections. In practice those don't exist. As the article explains about this particular inspection:

The material was found during snap IAEA inspections that were carried out at the two sites in August and September of last year, after Iran barred access for seven months.

The "snap" inspections were delayed by seven months!

And check this out! 

Iran’s Compromise With IAEA Taps Breaks on Escalation ...

The head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog says the so-called “additional protocol,” which allows short-notice inspections of Iran’s nuclear sites, is being suspended.

In what alternate world are short-notice inspections something that can be delayed for seven months?

And how is suspending them a compromise with Iran?!

This recent inspection isn't anywhere near the anytime, anywhere inspections we were promised. This is what Obama told us:

It contains the most comprehensive inspection and verification regime ever negotiated to monitor a nuclear program. ... For Iran to cheat, it has to build a lot more than just one building or a covert facility like Fordow. It would need a secret source for every single aspect of its program. No nation in history has been able to pull off such subterfuge when subjected to such rigorous inspections. And under the terms of the deal, inspectors will have the permanent ability to inspect any suspicious sites in Iran. [emphasis added]

The Iranians weren't worried about the inspection process:

Araghchi goes on to explain how Iran could handle the 24-day process triggered if the IAEA suspect activities in non-nuclear facilities: "The IAEA has to present us with evidence as to why it thinks there have been illegal activities occurring. After this step, we need to negotiate. Other countries do the same. After the negotiations, if we are convinced, we might allow them access. In cases where their evidence is not entirely unfounded, we can even use substitute methods; for example, we will say we cannot allow you into the main facility but we can allow you access to the area behind it. The other method is for us to videotape it ourselves and present it to them. But if the IAEA refuses our offers and insists on access, this subject has been left unsaid in the Additional Protocol." [emphasis added]

 This weakness was obvious to me from the start:

If we think there are unlawful activities or materials or undeclared facilities, the IAEA has to tell Iran the basis for the concerns and request clarification. No time limit is mentioned for getting clarification.

If the clarification doesn't resolve the IAEA's concerns--not our concerns apparently, just the secretive IAEA's--the IAEA may request access to the location and provide Iran with reasons in writing and make available relevant information. May? Not must? What is relevant? The name of whoever provided the information? The type of satellite that spotted something? Doesn't this just give Iran information to refine their ability to avoid detection?

On page 43, Iran can propose an alternative to site visits, which should be given due and prompt consideration! Seriously?

Ah, the first time frame. So that doesn't include the time for clarification of the concerns expressed to Iran. If the absence of unlawful materials or activities cannot be verified within 14 days of the IAEA original request for access, Iran and the IAEA have to agree to a means to resolve the dispute.

And I'll ask whether this will morph into the need for the IAEA to prove there is unlawful materials or acclivities, the way Saddam got the world to reverse his WMD obligations under the 1991 ceasefire.

Anyway, if following that 14-day period, the IAEA and Iran can't agree to means to resolve the dispute, a vote of 5 out of 8 members of the Joint Commission (one each from France, Germany, the United Kingdom, China, Russia, the United States, Iran, and the European Union) would approve advice on means for resolving the IAEA concerns.

China, Russia, and Iran will vote as a bloc, meaning Iran only has to bribe one country to abstain (coughfrancecough).

The commission would have 7 days for this step and the Iranians would have 3 days to implement the means.

So that's the 24 days we keep hearing about for access to nuclear sites. I'm still not confident that clarification efforts won't suspend that time. Lord knows how long that can last. And that is only if the IAEA decides to try to gain access to the site. They don't have to do that and we can't make them try.

And if Iran and the other parties can't agree on solutions to alleged violations?

If a party believes the other side isn't meeting their commitments, the party can refer the issue to the joint commission. There is no word on how long a dispute should last before such referral. I assume this could be months.

Once referred, the commission has 15 days to resolve the issue, unless by consensus the time is extended. No word on limits on that. I assume this could mean months, too.

After the commission has considered the issue and the issue is still not resolved, parties can refer the issue to the Ministers of Foreign Affairs. This can apparently be parallel to joint commission consideration rather than sequential. How likely is that?

The ministers have 15 days to resolve the issue, unless there is consensus extension. Again, months are possible to give them time to peacefully resolve a highly technical issue that is surely just a difference of opinion.

Then the issue can go to the Advisory Board, consisting of one member appointed by each side of the dispute and one "independent" member. No word on how that is decided. Please God, tell me Russia is not involved in that determination. That board has 15 days to issue a non-binding opinion.

If, after this 30-day (at least) period the issue is not resolved, the joint commission (which includes Iran, remember) has 5 days to consider the non-binding opinion.

If a party believes the issue is not resolved, the complaining party can deem this a "significant non-performance" and cease performing any or all duties under the act.

And when the IAEA confronted Iran over what was found, according to the article?

Five diplomats said that after the IAEA confronted Iran with the findings it gave unsatisfactory answers. Two of them said Iran told the agency the traces were the result of contamination by radioactive equipment moved there from another site, but the IAEA checked and the particles at the sites did not match.

One diplomat briefed on the exchanges but not the detailed findings said Iran had given “implausible answers”, describing Iran’s response as “typical delaying tactics”.

Even with all the time Iran had to scrub the site, the IAEA found something. But it was so little that Iran could lie about its source and nobody will make them reveal what happened. 

Indeed, Iran may have delayed enough. With Biden determined to revive the nuclear deal, Iran's past violations will be forgotten in a new and improved deal--much as Iran's past nuclear weapons programs were ignored for the 2015 deal.

Lather, rinse, fission.

Have a super sparkly day.

UPDATE: I can't say the Iranians are wrong:

The messages sent out by Iran’s leaders contain warnings to Washington and European capitals. The gist of these messages is that Iran is ready to close the door on nuclear talks altogether if there is no prospect of a return to the old nuclear deal. In the view of Iran’s leaders, this threat will be enough to incentivise the Europeans to back down like they did in negotiating the first deal.

 Praise the renewed trans-Atlantic surrender mechanism!

UPDATE: Any inspections that the Iranians have to agree to is no inspections agreement at all:

In the Sunday agreement between the IAEA and Iran, Tehran said it would allow IAEA inspectors necessary verification and monitoring activities in accordance with the newly passed law for up to three months.

Grossi [the director general of the IAEA] explained that the agreement does not maintain the Additional Protocol and that inspectors will have less access but their technical agreement prevents them from being blind to what is occurring in Iran. 

All hail Smart Diplomacy! 

UPDATE: Oh, and this whole inspections thing highlights what I noted above--in the nuclear deal the United States subcontracted inspections to the IAEA.

Building the Cyber Rounds

I'm fine with "influence artillery rounds." But don't get overly focused on non-kinetics. Jihadis persuaded to be fine people can revert. Dead jihadis remain good jihadis.

Special Forces civil affairs PsyOps operations could use this:

To stay ahead of rapidly moving threats in the information space, 1st Special Forces Command is building an Information Warfare Center that will specialize in “influence artillery rounds.”

Critical to Special Forces’ role is deploying to remote locations while still being able to effectively message portions of a population.

Again, this is useful. Jihadis may be committed but most aren't that fanatical. And other enemies, neutrals, and even friends might need such information ops to help keep our forces secure and promote the campaign objective.

The artillery round framing fits with my thoughts on potential tactical use in effects support for troops in combat:

[Fire support]t could be a plane or space system out of sight, an attack helicopter, a ship or submarine offshore, a distant ground force missile or artillery asset, or even an 81mm mortar back at the company level.

If cyber weapons can suppress the target or add to the fires mission success--perhaps by negating point defenses against fires missions or information operations highlighting a path of retreat open to the enemy before the rounds hit to get them to retreat, for example--it is automatically plugged in to the mission.

Indeed, if the target is close to civilians, perhaps the call for fire support triggers automatic telephone warnings to civilian numbers near the target if there is time before the rounds need to hit.

The Special Forces effort is more of an area weapon, it seems. And perhaps very useful if it isn't as amateurish and laughable as Russia's tiny influence operations in the 2016 election (aside from the multiplier effect made by the Resistance, of course).

But my basic view is that "WebOps" shouldn't let us forget that for the most dedicated enemies, "LeadOps" are still key. Sometimes JDAMs are the weapon of choice:

We'd be better off explaining to Islamists that we know that they do not represent most Moslems and that their right to be angry stops the moment it crosses the line into physical harm to Americans. And at that point we'll remind them why God gave us JDAMs and special forces.

Oh, and controlling "selfie emitting" (my term) to avoid telling enemies where you have been, where you are, and where you are going will be a project.

It's a complicated battlefield out there.

Looking North

With all the talk of a potential Israeli-Arab strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, would Israel seek a closer victory?

This is interesting:

Israel’s air force began a “surprise exercise” to improve combat readiness along the country’s northern border, the military said on Monday.

That was a week ago.

Israel has already tested their ground forces.

I've long expected an Israeli ground operation to de-fang Iran's Hezbollah ally/proxy in Lebanon, quoting a 2010 post:

I assume that any war will be a multi-division push north of the Litani that will take advantage of the fact that Hezbollah, after 2006, wrongly believes it can go toe-to-toe with Israeli troops and so will fight as light infantry rather than as insurgents. For a while, Israel will be able to really pound Hizbollah ground forces as the Israelis take over rocket-launch sites and armories with troops.

Further, I'd guess the Israelis will push rapidly into the Bekaa Valley as far as Baalbek to tear up Hezbollah's rear area to slow down rearmament after the war is over. Air strikes would take place north of that, if necessary, I'd guess.

Could this air force exercise be gearing up for such an assault north instead of the east?

If Israel and its Arab allies stood ready to strike Iran itself, would that threat mute an Iranian reaction to a Lebanon thrust to gut Hezbollah?

I've been connecting dots for a long time without being right, of course. But it makes sense regardless.

UPDATE: This would reinforce a smaller--for now--objective:

The Pentagon chief “underscored Saudi Arabia’s role as a pillar of the regional security architecture in the Middle East and the importance of sharing the responsibility of regional security and stability,” the Defense Department said in a press release.

If Iran struck Saudi Arabia while Israel hits Hezbollah, America would defend the Saudis.

And perhaps then with an expanded war with Iran, Israel would hit Iran directly.

From Maximum Pressure to Maximum Assistance

Is it only up to Biden, Europeans, Russia, China, and Iran for a policy regarding Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions?

Here we go again with Iran Outreach 2.0:

The Biden administration says it's ready to join talks with Iran and world powers to discuss a return to the 2015 nuclear deal, in a sharp repudiation of former President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure campaign” that sought to isolate the Islamic Republic.

The administration also took two steps at the United Nations aimed at restoring policy to what it was before Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018. The combined actions were immediately criticized by Iran hawks and drew concern from Israel, which said it was committed to keeping Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Reviving the corpses of the deal and hope that Iran's mullahs are reasonable is insane:

The horrible deal actually rested on the flimsy objective that the deal would turn  mullah-run Iran into a successful and responsible regional power that would not violate international norms and that by implication would not want nukes. Yes, the deal's flaw of opening the path to nukes would not be taken by Iran because of Obama's goodness lessons.

The Iranians demonstrated quickly that they had no intention of being responsible as part of being a successful regional power. 

Indeed, Israel demonstrated that Iran wants nukes and the deal is not an obstacle to that objective. So that expiration is important.

As I argued well before the deal was signed, the basic premise of the deal was always clear to me: Iran's mullah rulers would pretend not to want nuclear weapons; and America would pretend to believe them. 

I just don't understand why Democrats love Iran's mullahs so much.

I will not be surprised if Israel and its Arab allies mount a "maximum monkey wrench" strike campaign on Iran's nuclear infrastructure to preempt Nuclear Surrender 2.0. And maybe against Iran's oil export facilities, too. The Saudis have reason to wage that kind of war that Iran set the precedent for, right?

Have a super sparkly day.

UPDATE: A reminder that Obama really thought the horse would sing under his deal.

Weekend Data Dump

I am pleasantly surprised that the Biden administration has "deep concerns" about WHO and Chinese information about the early Xi Jinping Flu epidemic--before it became a pandemic. The more the CCP and its hand puppets in WHO obscure that early data, the more I have to conclude the transition to pandemic was deliberate. I had been betting on CCP secrecy and a desire to avoid losing face, and possibly power, from such an epidemic. But I begin to wonder. Not that I think the Covid-19 virus was engineered to be a weapon, mind you. But at some point I wonder if the CCP said, "Ef it, we're not suffering through this alone."

"Climate change is a real, manmade problem. But its impacts are much lower than breathless climate reporting would suggest. " Because of that, massive climate spending and draconian goals for carbon emission reductions will cause far more harm than any climate change. I dispute that climate change is a "manmade problem." Oh, I certainly believe modern humans contribute to global warming. That's been a factor for about 70 years, I think. But I don't think we know nearly enough to conclude that humanity drives the climate rather than being a perhaps small part of it. And even if 100% of the problem is on mankind's shoulders, the left-wing solutions are harmful in the long run. Tip to Instapundit.

Don't believe that the Saudi coalition is at fault for the humanitarian crisis in Yemen: "The seven years of fighting in Yemen have further damaged an already crippled (by corruption and mismanagement) economy and caused a lot more deaths due to hunger, poor medical care and outbreaks of diseases like cholera. The rebels blame it all on Arab coalition air strikes but even UN investigators now agree that Shia rebel theft of foreign aid and denying “hostile populations” access to such aid have caused a large portion of the civilian deaths. Nearly all these deaths occur in the rebel controlled north because in the south foreign aid is delivered through several ports and distributed to whoever needs it." And don't forget that the Houthi use human shields to protect their assets from Saudi coalition air strikes. America helped the Saudis hit those targets with fewer civilian deaths--deaths totally the responsibility of the Houthi who use human shields.

I suspect that Senate Minority Leader McConnell is playing nice with Senate Majority Leader Schumer because of some deal that includes ruling out D.C. statehood or killing the filibuster over the next two years. It is even possible that Pelosi's fury over how Schumer handled Pelosi's impeachment in the Senate indicates something is up in the Senate. I could be wrong. If both "banned" events are seriously pushed I'm clearly wrong. I'm just saying I'm not willing to declare McConnell an honorary Democrat.

We should certainly worry about nutball Shia Islamist Iran becoming a nuclear-armed power. Do we worry enough about nuclear-armed Pakistan becoming increasingly nutball Sunni Islamist? I wonder if America and India have contingency plans regarding Pakistan's nuclear arsenal should Pakistan descend into Islamist-inspired chaos or if there is an Islamist coup?

That CBS reporter is probably as biased toward Democrats as you believe. But her words did not on their face minimize the falsified evidence House Democrats presented in the Senate. I was fully prepared to hear Trump's lawyer put a biased reporter in her place. But I didn't see it. Even after replay. Although I think it is clear that the lawyer believed he heard the reporter minimize the falsification. But she did not use the words he said he heard. Let's not fall for the Democratic sin over the last four-plus years of hearing what they feared and not what Republicans said. The lawyer could have said all the correct things he did about the biased media without that specific accusation.

All along I figured the Lincoln Project of anti-Trump Republicans had nothing to do with saving the Republican Party. The name honors John Wilkes Booth and not Lincoln. And now it has disintegrated in a toxic miasma of financial mismanagement and/or fraud and sexual harassment. I think all Republicans can be grateful that the members loudly separated themselves from the Republican Party and fully aligned with the Democrats. Grenade avoided.

I'm against making community college "free." Until K-12 public schools are fixed to actually educate our children why should we believe that government control--through funding--of two more years of schooling will be anything other than stretching failure out to 14 years? Fix K-12 and we can discuss community college funding.

As I watch birds eat at my bird feeder, it amazes me that they sometimes just sprawl in the seeds that spill into the tray and just eat around them. Sometimes I feel like I should dump Doritos on my floor, get naked, and bask amongst the chips, reaching around to eat. But perhaps I share too much. 

I heard that some Republicans want to form an anti-Trump political party. Wait. What? The Democratic Party isn't enough?

It took three days to put out the fires in that massive fuel tanker conflagration in Afghanistan near the Iran border. 

Macron seems serious about filtering out Islamist fanaticism from France. The effort includes new legislation. As I said, the problem doesn't get easier if they delay the fight.

I think this age of woke persecutors will eventually be seen as a quasi-religious movement that hunted non-existent witches. It's all quite bizarre.

A violent clusterfuck with a UN seat. 

Misleading politics just won't end. VP Harris is reported to have claimed there was no vaccine distribution plan. Fauci refuted that. But the anti-Trump spin seems to be more from the media and not from Harris herself. Some of that spin is from the bias of the media class and Democrats for federal action rather than state and local action. Why would Trump have made a federal distribution plan when it thought sending vaccines to the states to do as they see fit is superior? And our own eyes tell us that vaccinations have been given across the country since December despite lack of a detailed federal distribution plan. Reality is unforgiving on this. Biden promised one million vaccinations per day through his first 100 days. Which is a rate that was achieved by the time Biden was sworn in. As for Harris' claim there was no vaccine stockpile? Huh? Should there be? I'm no public health expert. But when every vaccine dose is needed now, isn't holding some back counterproductive? Shouldn't we be pushing them out to the states as fast as they are produced?

Prepaid burial-at-sea contracts: Iran's subs will kill more Iranian sailors than they will American sailors.

The Army is testing sending satellite imagery directly to troops in the field. Finally! The satellite boys (and girls) held that information so tightly that when Google Earth came around that quick information troops used it rather than wait for superior imagery that arrived way too late to help.

Why on Earth would the Navy get rid of these new small patrol boats? Is the Persian Gulf not a problem now?

I've worried about Taiwanese determination to resist a Chinese invasion. I've read things that make me question the fighting spirit of the Taiwanese army. But that's an old post. Is it true now? Was it true then? And in this podcast, Strategypage says the Taiwanese are absolutely determined to fight. I hope that is true. I keep my eye out for information on that issue. Rarely do I see anything that supports the Strategypage position.

The media praised Governor Cuomo's pandemic policies and leadership. But only because the media acted like Cuomo's stenographers rather than report on the policies and leadership accurately.

Could Starlink empower the subjects of tyrants in Russia, China (and even Iran) by breaking the state monopoly on communications and communications surveillance?

Hmmm. That's disturbing. I admit I've long worried about the longevity of South Korea's alliance with America. And without America there, can their democracy and rule of law long survive? Democracy might not survive with America there. Although I have some worries about America itself these days.

The New York Times Firing of Don McNeil Shows How a Super Privileged Rich Kid Has More Influence There Than a Veteran Reporter[.] The reporters should live in fear of being labeled "very bad people" who thinks bad things and getting sent to the corn field. Which is swell and really good, of course:

On YouTube I saw a headline for a CNN story that said "Trump has a *lot* of money problems." Isn't that an extra unneeded word on the end? Because CNN spent four years telling us that Trump was using the presidency to enrich himself.

Sometimes the jihadis make more good jihadis by accident. Thirty, this time. Let's just hope it was the final exam. And thank God the classroom seats aren't socially distanced. Tip to Instapundit.

So not the Black Plague, then: "The risk of death from COVID-19 is more than triple that from seasonal flu, researchers in Canada say."  And yes, I understand that the Xi Jinping Flu spreads far more easily. That dramatically increases the denominator compared to the seasonal flu. But perhaps the restrictions from a year ago when we didn't know how much more deadly this virus is (and greatly inflated that death risk) aren't justified now. Tip to Instapundit.

We need other sources of rare earth elements. And in the meantime I hope we have good stockpiles. Just in case.

Fingers crossed for a good Mars landing. Although we'll know what happened before this is published. Let's hope no Chinese craft ram it to stake out sacred Chinese territory. Tip to Instapundit.

An American diplomat said good things at the UN Security Council about supporting Iraqi democracy and stability, including help to fight corruption.

The Navy seized large numbers of Russian-style infantry weapons heading for Yemen. No doubt supplied by Iran. The U.S. expressed outrage over a rocket attack on a base housing American troops. An Iran-backed group is responsible. More details on the attack. Again, you don't need CSI: Tehran to figure this out. Perhaps the lesson will be to fight back against Iran. Perhaps the lesson will be bigger pallets of cash. Could go either way.

Iraqi forces and pro-American Syrian militias rely on American air power to fight ISIL.

Biden delayed calling the Israeli contrary to tradition, making people wonder if Israel is on double secret probation, of something. But inertia keeps the relationship going in the short run: "American and Israeli troops are practicing ballistic missile defense and collaborative crisis response in this year’s iteration of the Juniper Falcon exercise." Biden finally spoke to Netanyahu on Wednesday.

The new American secretary of defense will press NATO allies to meet defense spending commitments. Which is what Trump did. Which is what Obama did.

The Italian light carrier Cavour arrived in Norfolk to have its ability to launch and land F-35Bs certified. 

This article says India has detected South African and Brazilian variants of the pandemic virus. Variants of what virus, you may ask. Of the Wuhan Flu virus. No, that's not it. The China Virus. No, wrong again. Those terms identifying geographic places of virus origin are racist, we've been told over and over. Well it's a variant of something and quite newsworthy, it seems. Move along. And don't beat up South Africans or Brazilians.

With all the officially sanctioned misinformation about the Capitol Building riot (horrible but not an insurrection) out there, it's like Congress and Biden have their own domestic Tonkin Gulf Incident to justify a war on conservatives.

France, jihadis, ethnic divisions, corruption, and Mali. 

Biden refuses to cancel $50K in student loan debt by executive action. Good. But it would be better if he threatened to veto whatever Congress sends him. And who knows if Biden's view on executive action will "evolve" without Congressional action.

Good Lord, PolitiFact hit Peak Stupid. For the moment. What? No "context" for the false claim? Tip to Instapundit.

I was told our allies would welcome America "back" after the so-called disaster of Trump. Our allies are getting it good and hard: "[The Biden administration] is also discovering that U.S. allies are not quite as happy with Mr. Biden’s Feb. 4 announcement that “America is back” as many Democrats might have hoped." Yeah:

So  ... the Xi Jinping Flu is just going away in India?

Pakistan used to be America's Black Sheep ally. America tired of Pakistan's behavior. And by switching to China, Pakistan ... chose poorly.

I'm just going to say that I hope Biden does lots of town hall meetings.

No! Way! "The Afghan Taliban have kept up a close relationship with Al Qaeda despite having pledged to stop cooperating with terrorist groups, permitting the militants to conduct training in Afghanistan and deploy fighters alongside its forces, according to the head of a U.N. panel monitoring the insurgency." You may recall that I was never happy with Trump's deal with the Taliban. Because I was never a cheerleader. 

Jihadis in Europe: "Shotguns, a rifle and 'things that can be used to make a bomb,' were found as 14 people were arrested in Denmark and Germany on suspicion of preparing one or several attacks in the two countries, Danish police said Friday." But not an "imminent" threat. So no worries.

The logic of alliances. Spoiler alert: at their core they're transactional.

Of all of Iraq's problems, I worry about corruption the most. Rule of law must be built if democracy is to be real and last. I was worried about that even before the Iraq War.

Russia struggles with drones.

My dad absolutely loved the late Rush Limbaugh. Dad made quite the journey from union Democrat. I'm not sure when he went past me from hard core Democratic loyalist to hard core Republican loyalist. Somewhere during the Reagan era, I'm sure. I'm sorry dad missed the election of Trump.

Even as America gets better and better on race issues, the woke get more and more shrill in claiming "systemic" racism. That's nonsense. Tip to Instapundit. And as I've observed, you'd think a "systemically racist" country could have held the line on African-American achievement and integration closer to slavery than to the White House. As I've also said, Obama's election said more good things about the American people than it did about the skills of Obama. We can always make things better. But denying the tremendous progress our country has made is insane. As is thinking the rest of the world is a racial relations paradise compared to the uniquely sinful America.

I don't actually think Biden made  an excuse for abusive tyranny But can you imagine the media reaction if Trump had said something like that? Maybe Biden excused China's tyranny. But I think Biden was telling Xi Jinping that Biden's criticisms of China's human rights are just "something American culture requires Biden to do." So the implication is that Xi shouldn't worry about actual American action. Which is actually worse. Communists tyrants are going to act like tyrants. What's Biden's excuse for just going through the motions of standing up to tyrants?

Spring is in the air, so naturally "peace" talks in Afghanistan are threatened by an expected Taliban offensive. Also from our "peace partner."

Can't you just feel the appeal of reaching out to Iran? "Fifteen people arrested in Ethiopia were part of what American and Israeli officials said was a foiled Iranian plot against diplomats from the United Arab Emirates." I know, defenders of the original Iran deal say this is exactly why a deal is needed. But the first deal paved the way for Iran's nukes without having any effect on Iran's behavior. And nukes will be a shield for exactly this kind of terrorist behavior. Remember, Iran went hunting in Africa to search for easier targets for their terrorism. The mullahs must be defeated and not coddled. 

The Navy is practicing how everybody is in the sea control fight: "A Navy carrier strike group got a first glimpse at what future operations could look like, with SEALs providing forward targeting data and Marines on expeditionary bases providing another missile strike option to supplement the strike group’s aircraft- and surface ship-based weapons."

The Navy said it conducted a Freedom of Navigation Operation near Spratly Islands. We really have diluted the concept of a FONOP. The warship merely defied unlawful requirements for "innocent passage." Innocent passage means your ship goes through foreign territory quickly and without doing anything a warship can uniquely do. True FONOPs--I thought--deny territorial claims by operating as a warship in that territory. 

The modern Democratic Party has decided to screw blue collar workers in favor of their extremist Green faction. Labor unions thought they were special. Not so much. Tip to Instapundit.

Never let a crisis go to waste. Even when the crisis is declining and the proposed massive "response" will interfere with recovering from the crisis. It's mostly stimulating failure at this point.

Ben Rhodes thinks America's media is way too pro-Israeli? Where was it when that media was wrapped around his finger to promote the garbage Iran nuclear deal? I guess those darned Jews will get what's coming to them now that Biden is in office. To be fair to Rhodes, I guess it isn't mutually exclusive to think the media is pro-Israeli and ignorant.

In the vast Pacific, tiny dots with air fields are very important.  The Australians need to pay attention, too.

Iran-al Qaeda ties. Good enough for government terrorist work?

American social media is waging war on domestic "enemies." There is collateral damage: "Facebook made the sudden decision to ban media content on its platform in Australia Thursday, creating chaos when other entities — including a government weather agency and state health department — were also inadvertently blocked." Even though the government site blocking was inadvertent, the capability to do that on purpose is clear.  As I noted a month ago, " If the president of the United States can be banned, who's next? What else might foreigners begin to fear American big tech can do to them at a whim? Big tech is taking a shot at Trump and Republicans. But the collateral damage could be worldwide and end up hurting big tech. Might Europeans decide they need their own Internet? Might a European decide there is profit in seeking the "niche" market of American conservatives with competitors to Twitter and Facebook?"

That's just sad. Tip to Instapundit. 

I don't let politics interfere with life. The problem is a lot of other people do. As I've said in the context of war, it only takes one side to make conflict. Two sides just make it longer and costlier. Which needlessly complicates dating life where I live. But perhaps I share too much. I have no doubt we'll look back on this era as one of mass and multiple hysterias. Or "collective madness" is a fine term. At this point my hope is that the hysteria dies down enough for my children to enjoy life without the burdens that the mass hysteria places on good people.

I don't know how inflation can't be a looming problem. All I know is that for reasons I can't fathom it hasn't been so far. Which means that when experts generally aren't worried about inflation I take no comfort. 

As the Biden administration figures out what to do in Afghanistan, let me say two things. One, don't forget that our effort created a government that instead of producing terrorists is one that is out there killing terrorists every day. That government is imperfect. But it does fight our mutual enemies. And two, don't make the mistake of thinking counter-terrorism is a cheap alternative to counter-insurgency. The latter enables the former. And without the latter being done by someone, the former ends up being just bombing empty tents or full weddings.

Democrats will find lots of dumb excuses to keep troops garrisoning Washington, D.C. forever. Next month it will be the anniversary of the Iraq War. Then tax day. The month after, Memorial Day. Then Flag Day. Then Independence Day. And August? Well, just in case. It is one of those months without an (R) in it. Symbolic? Then we're up to 9/11, so duh. And more fences and more barbed wire each month, I suppose. It looks like a coup really took place. But I'll only really worry if VP Harris starts sporting an Army uniform and sunglasses. Tip to Instapundit.

Woo!!!

While it is shameful for Democrats to punish Trump with legislation to prohibit his burial at Arlington, I don't know if it is illegal. It isn't a criminal punishment. And it technically is only aimed at anybody impeached twice (so Bill Clinton is fine). In Michigan, such wording is used to get around state constitution's prohibition of laws for specific municipalities. But if you make a law for all cities with at least 1,000,000 people? Oh well, it's a big coincidence it only applies to Detroit. There was legislative scrambling as Detroit's population shrank. Or maybe cities over 200,000 in counties of at least 500,000 with a port or an international airport. There were ways. I remember once somebody from out of state was astounded that such a thing was upheld by our courts. I don't know what federal limitations are. If any. If the bill is passed, Trump should direct that following his death that he will be cremated with his remains divided between his primary place of final resting and the Congressional districts of every bill co-sponsor. Let them enjoy the pro-Trump tourists:

The F-16IQ clusterfuck. 

"A convicted murderer-turned-community activist in Baltimore has a radical approach to combating the city’s stunning murder rate: Pay criminals not to kill." We're not going to get to Peak Stupid ever, are we? Or maybe it is Peak Immorality. How is it justice to reward criminals and say yes, crime does pay? As one writer commented about his long history of not killing people: "And all this time… I’ve been doing it for free??? What a dope!"

The myths of the Capitol Building riot. They conveniently support the ridiculous notion that it was an insurrection. The riot was bad. Those involved in entering the Capitol Building should be punished. But it was no insurrection. Which is what Democrats want you to think to justify wide-ranging actions against Republicans. Right now the only reason for keeping National Guard troops in Washington, D.C. is to support Insurrection Theater. Tip to Instapundit.

The Russians slowly kill Ukrainian troops on the static frontline in eastern Donbas. And the Ukrainians are just taking it. I guess the subliminal Ukrainian counteroffensive is over. Russia has succeeded in getting Ukraine to pretend that the local separatists and not Russia are the real enemy to talk to. But if the Ukrainians attack to liberate the area, doesn't Russia's diplomatic success backfire by making it more difficult to openly fight the Ukrainians? Or maybe I overestimate Russian sense of shame and they'd shift on little notice to open warfare.

I used to mock Thomas Friedman. I decided to ignore him after his horrible suggestion to exploit Russia's 2014 invasion of Ukraine in order to get higher gasoline taxes. I found that despicable. But I can't resist noting this:

As I would say when I read his columns: I won't say you can't drown in a pool of Friedman's wisdom. But you would have to be drunk and face down to do so.

The Israelis want more F-35s. Which should settle the question of whether or not the plane is capable.

The Army faces a choice of modernization or numbers in a tighter budget as available resources flow to the Navy, Air Force, and Space Force. Thank God for the Coast Guard! I'd bet on modernization given that over the last two decades so much modernization was screwed up or took second place during the Middle East campaigns.

Marines who arrived in Norway for cancelled (because of the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic) multinational exercises will conduct Arctic training as long as they are there.

"Gulf War Syndrome" in troops sent to the Persian Gulf War (1990-1991) was not caused by depleted uranium rounds. Researchers think low-level Iraqi poison gas exposure combined with gas antidotes and exposure to pesticide are the cause. Depleted uranium seemed like a too convenient cause ("nuculer!!") from leftist activists to be true. And going to exotic climates with unfamiliar diseases has long been a problem for Western troops. What is the comparison between Western troops and Arab troops?

The British may reduce or cancel upgrades for their infantry fighting vehicle. Which makes sense for their new (old) off-shore strategy that abandons toe-to-toe combat with the Russkies. Although options are limited if the troops going ashore are too light.

NATO will increase its training mission in Iraq by 500 troops to 4,000 total. Good! I assume this means non-American NATO troops. Training is an ongoing process. Too many people like to say "we've been there for two decades and they still aren't trained! Get out now!" You don't train an army and put it on a shelf to be taken down in pristine condition when needed.

My only question is how long it will take to contrast the new Republican target of hate with the "decent" ex-president Trump:

Last week I looked at Xi Jinping Flu cases and the dramatic trend down led me to write that "I wonder if we are far closer to beating this than we think. Not that the virus will be gone. But that it will be infrequent enough to resume normal life." Well: "There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life." If current trends hold, of course. Including vaccination efforts which should continue to go up. Fingers crossed. I'd be happy not to lose another summer to this Chinese Communist Party export. Not to be selfish here. But that would help everyone, too. Including our budget if the epidemic fades before we spend too much money we don't have for no good reason. But if spending that money can be used to credit Biden with an economic and pandemic recovery that would happen without spending a single dime, Democrats will find that well worth the price.

LOL

Hahahaha!

Biden tells Europeans that "America is back." And Europeans "push back." But America never left. We reinforced NATO and strengthened NATO over the last four years, in fact. The two strongest EU powers pushed back at Biden. As the article explains, what France wants is an EU military. That weakens NATO and minimizes American influence in Europe. And Germany wants to reach out to Russia and China regardless of where America wants to lead. In general,I think Europeans want an America that doesn't ask Europeans to carry any burden or pay any price for the alliance burdens. So yeah, those EU states only want an America "back" to not leading Europeans. Which they welcome very much.

Science!

More Science! People aren't rejecting science. People are rejecting partisan politics dressed up as science to avoid the unpleasant need to justify political policies.

But don't you dare call them anti-American:

I have never fallen for the organic food hype and don't buy any of it. Well, it may have pushed conventional farming to get better. And organic meats that don't over-use antibiotics that risk human resistance to that important treatment are a good thing. But only if that niche practice has an effect on conventional meat production. There is no reason to buy organic now for health benefits. The organic fervor all too often is a way to (somehow) proclaim your moral superiority over non-organic consumers. Tip to Instapundit. Oh, and heh:

Putin will send Navalny to a "penal colony." I see there is a new term for "gulag."

Algerians are calling for freedom and democracy. The Arab Spring is a long season.

Russia invests a lot in expanding their nuclear arsenal, especially shorter range weapons outside of New START restrictions on American and Russian long-range weapons. In part this is to compensate for Russia's conventional forces weakness compared to their massive borders. But I do wonder if Russia's bluster is to conceal a Potemkin nuclear deterrent. 

A Shia group rocketed an Iraqi base where American contractors service Iraqi F-16s. I'm sure the attack was just part of Iran's cultural traditions for saying "Let's talk and be friends." We're to respect such differences, I've been led to believe. Ah the rich tapestry of Persian culture!

Huh: "Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Saturday issued a decree ordering the respect of freedom of expression ahead of legislative elections in May, a step demanded by Palestinian factions who discussed the polls in Egypt-hosted talks this month." Maybe the lesson Palestinians should take from this is that regular and frequent elections might lead their rulers to respect freedoms more frequently.

As I've noted, four years of insanely biased anti-Trump coverage may have been the biggest source of election fraud. So a year of insanity on Trump's pandemic record is hardly a shocking thing to ponder. Quite true, of course. But it was just one part of a broad media offensive. Tip to Instapundit.

The American secretary of defense called for more NATO help against China. I surely hope for more European help on intelligence, economic, and diplomatic efforts to resist China. But NATO is a military alliance. I'd rather have NATO take its neighborhood more seriously. Be able to stop Russia, police the Mediterranean Sea, and contribute to stabilizing the Middle East first. Then we can look at NATO projecting power all the way to Asia a bit more, eh? We'll see if Europeans really want America to lead them.

Move along. Nothing to see: "In northern North Korea (Chagang Province) it was recently revealed that a new (late 2020) Ganggye Chemical Factory for producing paint and varnishes was actually producing chemical weapons. This was revealed because the factory was next to the Changja River. The truth about the factory was revealed when people living downstream along the Changja River noted lots of dead fish in the river. Since people get drinking water from and wash clothes in that river this caused some alarm." 

I'm confused: "In comments made to the Defense Writers Group, Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown explained that the Air Force would like a new, from-scratch fighter to replace the F-16 with what seems to be capabilities somewhere in between the F-16 and the F-35." Huh? I thought the F-35 is the replacement for the F-16. Just as the F-22 was the replacement for the F-15. And if you really want something almost as capable as the F-35 but presumably cheaper, couldn't you strip down the stealth features of the F-35 a bit? Maybe make it frontal stealth only? Wouldn't that cut down on production and maintenance costs? How did the F-35 become the Ferrari of the Air Force?

Thank God we don't rely on these people to staff our military.  Tip to Instapundit.

Sometimes the good guys lose: "Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has admitted the protest movement against dictator Alexander Lukashneko “seems to have lost” after being on the verge of toppling his regime last year." Last week I mentioned that Lukashenko seemed like he endured the worst. And given that Russia would have sent in their troops if Lukashenko fell, the only question might have been the form of the protest movement loss. This time.

The U.S. intends to retaliate for Russia's massive hacking attack last year. We'll see.