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Monday, February 22, 2021

Looking North

With all the talk of a potential Israeli-Arab strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, would Israel seek a closer victory?

This is interesting:

Israel’s air force began a “surprise exercise” to improve combat readiness along the country’s northern border, the military said on Monday.

That was a week ago.

Israel has already tested their ground forces.

I've long expected an Israeli ground operation to de-fang Iran's Hezbollah ally/proxy in Lebanon, quoting a 2010 post:

I assume that any war will be a multi-division push north of the Litani that will take advantage of the fact that Hezbollah, after 2006, wrongly believes it can go toe-to-toe with Israeli troops and so will fight as light infantry rather than as insurgents. For a while, Israel will be able to really pound Hizbollah ground forces as the Israelis take over rocket-launch sites and armories with troops.

Further, I'd guess the Israelis will push rapidly into the Bekaa Valley as far as Baalbek to tear up Hezbollah's rear area to slow down rearmament after the war is over. Air strikes would take place north of that, if necessary, I'd guess.

Could this air force exercise be gearing up for such an assault north instead of the east?

If Israel and its Arab allies stood ready to strike Iran itself, would that threat mute an Iranian reaction to a Lebanon thrust to gut Hezbollah?

I've been connecting dots for a long time without being right, of course. But it makes sense regardless.

UPDATE: This would reinforce a smaller--for now--objective:

The Pentagon chief “underscored Saudi Arabia’s role as a pillar of the regional security architecture in the Middle East and the importance of sharing the responsibility of regional security and stability,” the Defense Department said in a press release.

If Iran struck Saudi Arabia while Israel hits Hezbollah, America would defend the Saudis.

And perhaps then with an expanded war with Iran, Israel would hit Iran directly.