The assumption is that the Chinese want another tool to deal with our carrier battlegroups in a Taiwan showdown. But the limited numbers China is seeking and advances in our SAM capabilities lead the article author to conclude:
This rumored sale to China, while it will generate some concern, will not be very difficult to deal with.
So the Chinese will buy weapons that won't deal with the US carrier threat? Either the Chinese think (rigthly or wrongly) these aircraft will work in their hands--perhaps in combination with other assets--or their purpose is not directed at the United States.
I've already noted that the Chinese are building a "string of pearls" along the sea line of communications from the Middle East to China. These bases would try to safeguard Chinese oil imports. Remember that the US is not the only threat China sees--they are surrounded by threats. India comes to mind as the big enemy jutting right across the route of oil tankers sailing from the Gulf to southern China. Might not Backfires based in Burma or Pakistan have a greater chance of knocking down India's carriers (I think they have two) and bottling up India's navy? Indeed, from Burma or perhaps Hainan Island, Backfires could deal with Thailand's small carrier and help guard the tankers as they go from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean.
Once you add the US Navy into the fight, it doesn't matter if Thailand or India are effective. We will shut down the tanker route somewhere along the long SLOC. But China would be foolish to assume that inability to deal with the worst case scenario means they shouldn't try to cope with a lesser threat. I'm just guessing, but India and not the United States seems the logical target for Backfire bombers in Chinese service.
