Monday, December 13, 2004

Dealing With Iran and Syria

The Syrians and Iranians have different strategies for opposing the US in Iraq.

The Syrians are eagerly sending jihadis into Iraq to fight or die:
Iraqis believe that their Arab neighbors are using Iraq as a way to get rid of their Islamic radicals. Syria, in particular, does little to stop Islamic radicals from entering Iraq. The Syrians know that most of these men will get killed. Those that survive and return, can be arrested, questioned to see if they are still willing to die to establish an Islamic state, and release them if they have mellowed out.
We are looking to orchestrate pressure on Syria. Lebanon is one area we are working on with the French even.

The Iranians have to work differently. First of all, they don't want to kill off their jihadis. The Iranians want them in the Iranian religious militias to keep the locals in line. And supporting Sadr didn't work out so well, since his revolt just got Iraqi Shias killed in large numbers trying to spark a national revolt against the US and our Iraqi friends. Instead the Iranians seem to be trying to compete at some level in the upcoming Iraqi elections (no link, forgot to save it). I think their effort will fail. Iraqi Shias didn't follow the Iranians in the Iran-Iraq War and they won't now.

One would think that Syria is our prime target given that Syrians seem to be far more involved in the Baathist revolt at this point. But Iran's nuclear ambitions make Iran far more dangerous than Syria no matter what they are doing in Iraq. Given that the Iraqi insurgents are targeting Iraqi security forces more, the insurgents must realize that we are winning by building up the security forces to take over the fighting from us. Syria's efforts certainly must be punished and stopped but they are not likely to defeat us so we have to focus on the biggest threat (though I am happy that things are going boom in Damascus). Not that we are supposed to sit by and do nothing while Damascus funds and funnels people to kill our soldiers and Marines. But keep our perspective. We might consider sending telegrams to the families of Syrian jihadis announcing their deaths. I'm sure the families would be touched by our gesture of concern and it wouldn't hurt to publicize the end results of buying the all-day pass to Jihadworld in Iraq.

Another reason to give Iran priority is that the Europeans are moving on to the next phase of their negotiations with Iran (Phase 1 was negotiating a meaningless freeze on nuclear activities). And if the words of wisdom from the former foreign ministers are anything to go by, Phase 3 negotiations will be to agree to parity in nuclear weapons between the EU and Iran.

Bolster the Iraqi security forces. Squeeze the Syrians. Get rid of the mullahs.