Korea/Iraq

Safire has a good column regarding the faux concern for dealing with North Korea first. He also points out the interests of South Korea, China, and Russia in preventing North Korea from acquiring nuclear weapons. The Chinese, especially, should be the most concerned since they already have nuclear-armed India, Russia, and America as potential foes. Do they want to add Japan to that list? Or South Korea? (and what about Pakistan? Though China counts Islamabad as an ally, could Islamists there gain sudden concern for their repressed brethren in western China?) America is in the best position to ride out a nuclear build-up in Northeast Asia so nobody should be pinning sole responsibility for resolving this crisis on America.

I disagree that pulling our troops out completely would be a good idea. But when things die down sufficiently, we should pull 2nd Infantry Division south of Seoul. It makes no sense to have the best division on the peninsula exposed to the initial North Korean assault where it must basically hold and die to prevent Seoul from falling. Let the South Koreans bear that sacrifice and let our division play a mobile reserve role where our technology and mobility will be maximized.

The way critics of war on Iraq have seized on North Korea and its purported “gains” in the last few weeks astounds me. What has North Korea gained? They’ve spouted off without being nuked. This will be a long game unless the shrill North Korea-firsters succeed in calling our strategy a failure already and get their way on new and improved negotiations with the same old liars. Given the balance of power out there, even with no Iraq war pending, we’d be hard pressed to press home a military solution at an acceptable cost. But once Iraq is occupied, we will have more freedom of action and certainly more ability to back our diplomacy versus North Korea.

And by all means, let’s stop dawdling on Iraq. Even Tariq Aziz, displaying his stunning grasp of world affairs that makes him so valuable to Saddam, predicted America will invade. I am stopping my countdown to invasion post since it is abundantly clear that a period of obvious troop movement must precede an invasion. I had originally believed that but when my deadline approached, I speculated that maybe we had enough there to start the war just as the airlift started. I doubt we will need to reach the 250,000 number mentioned as necessary, but it shouldn’t take too long to airlift in the rest of the five-plus Army and Marine divisions and supporting arms and move in the Air Force and Navy assets needed to invade. Yet with Blix ready to go to Baghdad in mid-January, I am distressed to think we will actually wait for that January 27 Blix report that everyone says will be the trigger for war. That report will most likely say that Iraq is cooperating and that the inspections should continue—until Saddam kicks them out after weaponizing a WMD sufficiently scary to deter an American invasion. Annan has, after all, said that Iraq is cooperating so there is no reason for war prior to the Blix report. How likely is Annan to read that report and cry out, “No more! I will suffer the lies no longer!” I’m hoping that the Blix deadline is a ruse and that we will hit Iraq before then to at least try to get tactical surprise.

On to Baghdad. Squeeze Pyongyang. Disembowel Michael Bolton. (Hey, as long as I’m wishing…)