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Sunday, June 09, 2024

Weekend Data Dump

The idea that Israel is committing genocide is wrong and offensive. In 8 months of war, Gazan casualties are largely the legal responsibility of Hamas. As for Hamas, consider the Israeli casualties if Hamas had been able to rampage inside Israel for 8 months at the rate of October 7, 2023: 288,000.

Perhaps we've been hasty, comrades: "North Korea said on Sunday it will stop sending trash-filled balloons into South Korea, after the democratic nation pledged to take “unbearable” steps in retaliation." North Korea demanded the end of South Korean civilian propaganda balloons sent north.

The burden of defense should fall on them, too, IMO: "Dozens of ultra-Orthodox protesters blocked roads in Jerusalem on Sunday as Israel's Supreme Court heard arguments in a landmark case challenging a controversial system of exemptions from military service granted to the religious community."

To be fair, he has experience in mayhem and murder at home and abroad: "Former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad registered as a candidate on Sunday for the upcoming election to the office he held between 2005 and 2013, Iranian media reported."

I flew to and from military training, adding just one day at either end. So I don't get this at all: "sending [Ukrainian] personnel to train in NATO states ... increases the delay in deploying soldiers as Ukraine must transport these personnel to and from NATO states."

Oh? "Another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are employing a new 'carousel' tactic during raids on Urozhaine [that] allows Russian tanks to continuously fire on Ukrainian forces both at a standstill and while maneuvering." LOL!

Oh: "A former Navy vice chief of naval operations faces up to 30 years in prison after he was arrested Friday along with two business executives on criminal charges involving a U.S. government contract bribery scheme while in uniform, according to the Justice Department." Another substitute for victory.

Of course the EU is in favor: "The European Union is considering setting up its own air defense shield after bloc leaders threw their support behind a Greek-Polish initiative to that effect this week." This is in NATO's lane.

That will help sink every Russian ship and blockade their ports: "Sweden plans to acquire anti-aircraft guns for its fast-assault boats to counter drones and helicopters, as officials have warned that the Baltic Sea could become a flashpoint with Russia."

China tries to drive the Philippines away from territory China illegally claims with coast guard water cannons: "But were that aggression to result in the death of a Filipino citizen, Marcos said, it would be 'very, very close to what we define as an act of war.'" China is playing with fire.

AFRICOM: "Over the past two weeks, roughly 8,100 military forces from nearly three dozen countries maneuvered throughout Tunisia, Ghana, Senegal and Morocco as part of the war games held this year as militaries confront new challenges in increasingly volatile regions."

Strategpage reviews the Black Sea campaign and says the Kerch Strait bridge is already unusable to trains or heavy traffic. I did not know that. Without Western recon and targeting, Ukraine couldn't have achieved this.

Update on the Hamas War: "There is growing dissatisfaction in the West and the Middle East with the Palestinian leadership failures and rampant corruption." This would explain why Israel has gotten more time than I expected to attack. And why only the Western campus/communist "street" has exploded.

The B-21 is torn between "a new Air Force war-fighting concept called 'pulsed airpower' — concentrating airpower at certain times and places to set up windows of opportunity for the other airpower. ... [versus] ... past Air Force goals of creating air dominance and air superiority in combat zones."

Defense chief Austin said we are moving beyond a hub-and-spoke model in Asia to "a set of overlapping and complementary initiatives and institutions propelled by a shared vision and a shared sense of mutual obligation." Still hub and spoke. But the spokes to America are now mini-hubs--but not an Asian NATO.

I missed this news from over a year ago: "13[th Dutch] Light Armoured Brigade completes integration between Dutch combat brigades and German divisions[.]" I did not know the goal was complete integration of brigades.

All for one and nukes for all: "The Royal Netherlands Air Force (RNLAF) announced that the F-35A will fully take over the Dutch nuclear role tomorrow, June 1 ... its weapons are provided under a NATO nuclear sharing agreement arrangement."

Given that a virus could be weaponized to strike us at home, it should matter that the "scientific" response to the Covid-19 Wuhan Flu for the public might as well have been wearing garlands of garlic around our necks, pouring salt across doorways, and chanting appeals to St. Fauci. We have to do better than that. 

About that solid Iran-China alliance: "China held its stance on three disputed islands in the Gulf on Monday despite Tehran's anger at Beijing for describing the Iran-controlled islands as a matter to be resolved with the United Arab Emirates." Iran took them 50 years ago.

I guess Russia is at war with NATO: "Poland has arrested 18 people on allegations of pursuing hostile activities or planning sabotage on behalf of Russia and Belarus, including plans to assassinate Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the interior minister said Monday."

We really need to end America's Ten Year Medium Term Rule on spending to defeat national security threats

Interesting: "Central Asian states gradually shaking Moscow’s control and forging new ties with the West while Russia distracted in Ukraine[.]" I assumed China would exploit that. Is that move by Central Asian states a major opportunity for the West to flip Russia?

Some controversy--fake?--about Dutch plans to build submarines capable of carrying American Tomahawk cruise missiles.

Apparently destroying Hamas with military action should have been eschewed in favor of letting Hamas defeat itself. I love fantasy tales! The author says it is a "smarter strategy" but it's just Smart Diplomacy.®

Oh, please: "It’s taken more than half a year, but, finally, President Joe Biden has publicly unveiled an Israeli plan that could end the bloodshed in Gaza." Hamas won't stop wanting to slaughter Jews. So there is no "end" to bloodshed in Israel. This is at best Hamas "reloading" and not an "end" to bloodshed.

FFS, "climate change" is the least of our military's problems.

Hair trigger: "Philippine troops stationed on a warship grounded on a disputed South China Sea shoal held on to their weapons after Chinese coast guard boats came very close to the ship but they did not point their guns at them, military officials said on Tuesday."

The 2014 pledge was to be met this year: "The number of NATO members meeting the military alliance’s defense spending benchmark could reach 23 nations this year — an all-time high prompted by the war in Ukraine, the U.S. permanent representative to NATO said Monday."

How to earn the Air Force Cross: "An Air Force combat controller dodged bullets, artillery shells and even direct fire from enemy tanks as he coordinated U.S. firepower against an oncoming battalion of Russian and Syrian tanks and fighters in early 2018."

Good: "Italy will send a second SAMP/T air defence system to Ukraine[.]"

NATO aid: "In addition to unveiling the package in July, an estimated 32 countries are finalizing a series of bilateral agreements to support Ukraine ahead of the summit, with 13 finalized so far, according to Julianne Smith, the U.S. ambassador to NATO."

All your sea are belong to us: "A Philippine fishing vessel was traversing Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea when two Chinese Coast Guard ships fired water cannons at both sides of the boat."

Air defense: "In April Germany shipped the second truck-mounted Skynex low-altitude anti-aircraft system to Ukraine. ... Skynex is an updated version of the earlier Skyranger 30, a turret-mounted air defense gun system armed with a 30mm autocannon[.]" Are our old Vulcans sitting in desert storage? 

Turtle tanks

The A-10 was designed for close air support and no Air Force asset to replace it was. But the A-10 was designed for 1970s air defense environments. That's gone. The author hints at the real problem, saying "The A-10's unique features and dedicated pilots contribute to an unmatched close air support culture."

Up to 400,000 soldiers and 300,000 civilians died in the recent Tigray War: "Despite the intense human suffering, this 'forgotten' war has not garnered the international attention it desperately needs." Well of course not! It's not like anybody wants to crown those Ethiopians as the Queen of the Victim Prom!

Stereo chest beating and nuclear poo flinging.

If India's new tough stance against China means China will be more violent in its subliminal war to capture disputed territory, India had best be prepared to win any clash that occurs. Quietly accepting repeated losses to China for decades hasn't convinced China to accept the border. Let the Wookie win, eh?

India's Modi declares electoral victory despite losing its majority: "Although Modi's Bharatiya Janata (Indian People's) Party (BJP) gained the most votes, it will have to rely on its two coalition partners to form a government."

It's nice to have options: "Photos have emerged showing a U.S. Navy F/A-18E/F Super Hornet carrying what appears to be an air-launched version of the hugely versatile SM-6 missile, also known as the RIM-174." But it might just be for some testing purpose rather than being a launching option.

Russia's Baltic Sea surface fleet will have quite the gauntlet to run: "Finland is the latest Nordic country to beef up its coastal defense with the planned acquisition of over a dozen self-propelled artillery systems to protect the country’s territorial waters in the Baltic Sea."

West Berlin (East): "The Philippine military chief on Tuesday said the Chinese coast guard seized one of four food packs dropped by a plane for Filipino navy personnel at a territorial outpost that has been surrounded by Chinese vessels in the disputed waters of the South China Sea." We could help.

This seems prudent: "Threatened by Pyongyang’s burgeoning stocks and varieties of ballistic missiles and rockets, South Korea is moving forward with a key class of interceptor weaponry."

Secretary of Defense Austin visited China's ally Cambodia in an effort to pry the country away from China. It's worth the effort. Nothing will change soon. Who knows what might happen in the future?

Stuck on stupid: "Right now the American navy has none of those clever and effective Ukrainian UAVs and USVs." Remember the Ukrainians rely on expensive NATO surveillance and targeting capabilities.

War: "[Russia's] tank reserves could keep the fighting going for another two or three years. Beyond that the heavy troop losses and the fact Russia is the invader and not defending Russia itself as was the case during World War II, popular support for the war in Ukraine is falling rapidly." Putin's boasts are hollow.

The Army's proposed V-280 tilt-rotor is intended to match the Marine strategy in the Pacific of deploying sensors and missiles to small islands and coastal areas. But the Army didn't neuter itself for one mission in one part of the globe as the Marines did.

Good: "Satellite images gathered on May 27 show that China has deployed its most advanced J-20 stealth fighter jets less than 150 kilometres from the boundary with India in Sikkim." I like it when China is forced to split assets between the sea and inland.

But other than that, Russia is a fine future friend to make by throwing Ukraine under the bus: "From Czechnya to Georgia to Syria, Russia has demonstrated bellicosity, cruel targeting, torture, deportations and disappearances of civilians including children, and ferocious lust for territory and domination."

It's nice of them to practice coming all this way, but in war we'll sink them as they depart their home ports: "The U.S. has been tracking Russian warships and aircraft that are expected to arrive in the Caribbean for a military exercise in the coming weeks[.]"

I think it is stupid and only helps Hamas, but it is good--if expensive--practice: "The U.S. military hopes to reinstall a pier for ferrying food aid into Gaza later this week and have the aid moving again days after that, Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said Wednesday."

There's no evidence government policies had any impact on containing Covid-19. CONUS isn't a sanctuary. But kinetics aren't the only weapon. We need to do better if an enemy attacks us with a virus. Because our military is affected. Via Instapundit.

Rogue 1 drone.

The Abrams. And its competition.

This writer laments: "No one is really campaigning, in this [EU parliamentary] election, on what is arguably the most critical question for Europe’s future at this point in time: how to maintain or indeed restore its role and standing in the world." The EU only cares about the power to have a foreign policy.

China continues to choke Hong Kong to death. Xi is killing the goose that laid the golden eggs. And sadly, since Hong Kongers don't joyously murder and rape, they die in darkness. Nobody will crown them Queen of the Victim Prom.

Russia provoked NATO into taking Putin's threats seriously: "The 53rd iteration of NATO’s Baltic Operations series of exercises is set to be the alliance’s largest amid the inclusion of new members and security concerns with Russia."

The Air Force is buying the Norwegian JSM to equip F-35s

GAO report on funding for Ukraine.

This problem will have more dire consequences in the winter: "Russian missile and drone strikes have caused significant long-term damage to Ukraine's energy grid, and Ukraine will reportedly face even greater energy constraints in summer 2024."

HALO: "An air-launched air-breathing hypersonic anti-ship cruise missile that is now in development for the U.S. Navy could also arm its ships and submarines." I'm assuming they don't fit in VLS cells and that they're too expensive for widespread use.

I mentioned I don't pay as much attention to China's space program. I should. Apollo was a mere Moon pageant. China plans Moon stations that "will form the basis of China’s Earth-moon space economic sphere and position the country as a leader in human deep space exploration activities." Tip to Instapundit.

Atlantic Council advice includes reactivating U.S. 7th Army in Germany; moving the Navy’s European headquarters in Naples to Britain; moving NATO strategic headquarters from Norfolk, Va. to Washington, D.C. or Paris; and moving Joint Force Command Brunssum from the Netherlands to Poland.

Excellent: "The Air Force is 'very close' to being able to rapidly update electronic warfare systems with fresh battlefield data in a matter of hours[.]"

Crawl, walk, run, eh? "Russia-adjacent NATO member Finland has no plans to invite U.S. or other alliance troops to be stationed in the country permanently, Finnish President Alexander Stubb said June 6."

A new American package of military assistance to Ukraine announced.

It's been a while since we had 203mm or 175mm guns (dropped for MRLS): "Russia and Ukraine both use the same heavy artillery weapon, the 2S7 Pions 203mm (eight inch) self-propelled howitzer, ... This cannon fires 103 or 110 kg shells 37.5 kilometers, or 55.5 kilometers using a rocket assisted shell."

UAV warfare: "UAV warfare is increasingly common and dominating some combat zones. Tactics and techniques are also evolving as Ukraine and Russia both experiment with new tactics, techniques, and UAV designs." I think fighter drones are the next step to stop UAVs--and then to escort them.

Modularized auxiliary cruisers can be equipped a new way: "Commercial cargo ships can carry hundreds of armed UAVs equipped with satellite communications so operators anywhere in the world can control them." The USVs need an expensive surveillance and targeting systems, of course.

I think the retired admiral needs to review his oath to uphold and defend the Constitution of the United States. He's way outside his lane. Telling citizens to shut up is no way to restore teetering public confidence in our military flag officers. But he does explain a lot about the Navy, no?

We were told we should get out of Afghanistan and stop spending money on helping our friends in Afghanistan defeat the Taliban and other jihadis. We've spent billions since retreating in 2021 that effectively props up the Taliban government. So we just switched sides. How's that working out?

As long as we don't bind our companies in red tape, they'll beat China to the Moon and beyond: "SpaceX's massive Starship rocket achieved its first ever splashdown during a test flight Thursday, in a major milestone for the prototype system that may one day send humans to Mars."

Fancy that: "the United States and Taiwan conducted unannounced and ‘unplanned’ exercises in the West Pacific during ‘routine encounters’ between the two navies in the open ocean according to a Reuters report citing unnamed sources." Stuff happens.

China is losing the chip war: "Amid intensifying competition, Biden exploited American dominance in semiconductors to gain an advantage and hold back China’s technological and economic progress."

Send the Russians to their buddies the Chinese to ef up their space program: "NASA and the Russian space agency, Roscosmos, still have not solved a long-running and worsening problem with leaks on [a Russian module that is part of] the International Space Station." Sadly, we need Russia. Tip to Instapundit.

Last week I noted the vague "attacker" in Germany. And now we know the stabbing spree in Mannhheim was by an Afghan man: "This latest violence is part of a gathering storm of Islamist stabbings, riots, and violent demonstrations engulfing the West, with Europe at the center of the maelstrom." Via Instapundit.

Somalia will strengthen jihadis to maintain the fiction of a united Somalia: "The move is the latest instance of the SFG giving priority to scuttling Ethiopia’s port deal with the de facto independent breakaway Somaliland region over the counterinsurgency fight against al Shabaab." You recall that issue.

Estimating casualties in Ukraine so far at 500,000 Russian dead and wounded--not including private military companies, like Wagner, losses; Ukraine at 200,000 dead and wounded. I have no idea if these are WAG or based on solid information.

Russia's military is a corrupt shambles. But: "The Kremlin’s chilling nuke stockpile - possibly as many as 6,000 larger strategic bombs and 10,000 battlefield tactical weapons would make Russia the top global nuclear threat." Seriously, how many work? Nukes are on an island of competence in a sea of corruption?

Five? "French President Emmanuel Macron announced that France will provide Ukraine with five Dassault Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets and will begin training Ukrainian pilots this summer."

I feel sorry for the innocent Gazans who die because Hamas terrorists use them as human shields (including by dressing like civilians which makes it hard to distinguish them) and refuse to surrender to save them. But every time I see a hate-filled pro-Hamas rally in America, I want to ship MOABs to Israel.

With an eye on Iran, no doubt: "Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) officially unveiled an air-launched version of its LORA (Long Range Artillery), a short-range ballistic missile originally developed for surface launch." I wonder if Ukraine could put something like that together.

Russia has coped with sanctions. But high defense spending is the major reason for growth: "'Longer term, you are destroying the economy,' believes Chris Weafer, founding partner of Eurasian consultancy firm Macro-Advisory. 'There is no money going into future development.'" Sanctions aren't worthless.

Strategic warfare: "Russian setbacks in Ukraine and anger at European NATO countries for supporting Ukraine have led Russia to strike back at European countries with a sabotage campaign. The Russians have paid criminal networks in Europe to carry out these attacks." Arrests make recruiting hard.

Dying for Putin: "There are increasing incidents of Russian officers shooting their own troops for not advancing against the enemy, or trying to flee when the Ukrainians attack or employ missiles or armed UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles). ... most of the details come from Russian social media."

There were heavy Gazan casualties in Israel's hostage-rescue mission. Oh well. Hamas started the war with war crimes. Hamas defends itself while committing war crimes--including using Gazan human shields. Hamas would have killed hostages if given time. Those "concerned" can urge Hamas to surrender.

Help: "National security advisor Jake Sullivan said Sunday the United States offered help with the rescue of four Israeli hostages over the weekend but did not specify how."

No more mister nice guy: "South Korea on Tuesday fully suspended the 2018 Comprehensive Military Agreement with North Korea following several days of North Korea sending trash-filled balloons across the border and jamming GPS signals."