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Monday, June 10, 2024

The Winter War of 2022 Tries to "Understand" Russia

I really don't get the impulse of some conservatives to validate Russia's demand to give them free people to create a buffer zone. No more than I understood the zeal of liberals in the Cold War to "understand" the Soviet Union and its conquests up to the Elbe River in Europe.

Russia invaded Ukraine to push their western border further west as it has done in the past. Russia has been attacking and gaining ground slowly. But American military aid has resumed:

While Russia is mounting attacks at several points along the front line, “we have chances to change the situation in our favor,” Ukrainian armed forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said Wednesday on Telegram.

Some understand Russia's objective. Recognizing that Russian "line in the steppe" gives people freed from Soviet control to Russia

[The] West erred disastrously in extending delusions of NATO membership to a country whose borders reach within a few hundred miles of Moscow, and that Russia—not just Putin—was left with little choice but to draw a line in the steppe.

That phrase about a line in the steppe implies that Russia is finally stopping aggression. And saying Zelensky's term of office has expired without noting that Ukraine's constitution makes that perfectly legal when it is invaded is meant to imply Ukraine is no better than Russia. So no big deal if it falls to Russia.

Shame on that author.

And NATO didn't conquer those former vassals of the USSR. They asked to join. Because they understand what it is like to be controlled by the thugs in Moscow. Once freed of that control, they sought to make sure it wouldn't happen again. 

Ukraine is resisting Putin's effort to march west, but even now after two years of heavy casualties Russia is seeking Ukraine's surrender--even if it is just a little bit for now--and drive a wedge between the West and Ukraine by portraying Ukraine as uninterested in "peace". The territory gained and that wedge would make the next round of conquest easier.

Face it, it is futile to expect Russia to be satisfied with even all of Ukraine as a buffer. Russia accepts no limits to their buffer zone. Hell, Russia will claim it has little choice but to keep redrawing its line further west.

And if some here want to "understand" Russia's desire to control countries on their western border--wherever Russia draws it--because of a history of invasions from the west, why can't these Americans understand why America needs a buffer in Europe? And with Russia the biggest threat, why it must be kept as far east as possible?

And consider that despite invasions of Russia from the west, the most lasting conquest came from the east when the Mongols ruled Russia for centuries. And the biggest threat to Russia's territorial integrity comes from China--not NATO. No matter how much Russia has tried to disguise it, Russia has been appeasing China in an effort to buy time. But it's getting worse for Russia.

Invading Ukraine made it worse rather than being the signal victory allowing Russia to pivot east

I've long wanted to welcome a sane Russia into the West. I thought they were preparing to at least downgrade NATO as the primary threat. But no, they decided we're their enemy. And demonstrate they are far from sane

Feeding Ukraine to Russia--even if you do it in stages to dull your conscience--is no way to protect America.

UPDATE (Monday): If so, Russia doesn't think they've yet missed their opportunity:

Ukraine's military says there are clear signs that Russian forces are getting ready for a major push in the east, where a stalemate continues despite months-long heavy fighting and intensive daily shelling by Moscow's troops.

In unrelated news, Russia is made for war and its "autocratic leaders always position their aggression as defense, and the Russian people invariably go along with it." If so, no buffer will satisfy Russia's so-called security worries.

UPDATE (Friday): The Russians lie. And they invade for no reason. Don't believe Russian lies about their unprovoked and illegal invasion of Ukraine:

Western media continues to report that Russian President Vladimir Putin is interested in a negotiated ceasefire in Ukraine, although Kremlin rhetoric and Russian military actions illustrate that Putin remains uninterested in meaningful negotiations and any settlement that would prevent him from pursuing the destruction of an independent Ukrainian state.
Help Ukraine send body bags back to Russia. That's the only way to achieve anything even remotely similar to "peace."

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.