I've been droning on for a long time about Russia's slide into vassal status under China. I'm seeing more and more authors talking about that and China's claims on Russian territory.
So here's a short piece on this sad reality for Putin's bare-chested, tiger-riding bravado (I've got nukes!):
Russia went to war against Ukraine to proclaim its great-power status and unbridled sovereignty over the surrounding regions. Instead, this endeavor has resulted in Russia becoming the subordinate partner in its alliance with China. Lavrov’s visit confirms that, far from being a great power, Russia is increasingly transforming into China’s vassal.
Russia and China are frenemies with temporary benefits with Russia sliding to vassal status.
I thought Russia hoped to appease China to build up its forces to defend its Far East. I guessed that verbal hostility toward a then-weak NATO was a verbal posturing to obscure the appeasement.
Perhaps it was. Yet after twenty years, Putin found he hadn't rebuilt Russia's power in time to settle his accounts in the West. But he managed to get China to grant five more years.
And before that extension could end, he launched what he intended to be a short and glorious war to conquer Ukraine and humiliate NATO to allow Russia to face China with confidence.
I warned his military wasn't up to that task. I warned it was risky for Putin to reveal just how much his military fell short of his boasts.
And Russia's military failed to achieve Putin's objective. Yet Putin and his minions beat their chests and fling poo about Russia's greatness--and don't you dare forget about the nukes!
The reality is that Russia has its ground forces tied down--the ground forces of a regional power with continents-spanning defense needs--in the west being ground up in Ukraine--especially his vital airborne forces--with a reviving and expanding NATO rubbing Putin's nose in the large pile of poo he left on the ground around him.
How low might Xi force Putin to bow to restrain China?
UPDATE: Will China pay a price for aiding aggression?
China’s supply to Russia has been one of the "key factors" in gaining momentum on the battlefield with its war in Ukraine, top U.S. intelligence officials told Congress Thursday.
And more relevant for Putin is what China will demand from Russia for this aid--and for whatever price China pays for aiding Russia.
UPDATE: Huh:
A potential joint invasion of Taiwan [by China and Russia] was raised in the meeting of the Senate Armed Services Committee by Republican Senator Mike Rounds, who asked the head of the Defence Intelligence Agency about the Pentagon's plans should an invasion happen.
Is Putin willing to bow low enough to Xi to agree to participating in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan?
That's just astounding. China's help for Russia's war against Ukraine is selling key items useful to Russia's war production effort; and buying oil at discounted prices from Russia.
In turn, Russia is expected to stand in the front ranks of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan so China doesn't face a coalition led by America to defeat the invasion all alone?
That's no alliance without limits. That's a vassal being told by the master what it can get and what it has to provide.
Putin's reputation as a chess master really is astounding, no?
UPDATE: Explain why Russians haven't already strung Putin up by his heels in Red Square?
The growing risk of war between Russia and China presents the most significant challenge to global stability in this decade. Indeed, by the time the 2020s are out, an armed clash between the two countries over China’s increasingly brazen territorial claims against Russia looks like a distinct possibility, with worldwide implications.I really don't feel lonely on my assessment any more. And seriously, what will it take for Russians to violently reject Putin's disregard for Russian lives?
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.