Oh? "Netanyahu’s Trip to China Risks Further Alienating Washington" If Saudi Arabia is the model, it will work wonders for Israel. But Israel should be careful, it's no mullah-run Iran, after all.
Democracy dies in darkness: "Liberal media bends over backward to dismiss new Joe Biden revelations[.]" Tip to Instapundit.
Schadenfreude? "Americans awoke Sunday morning to find themselves bathing in wave after wave of schadenfreude. In Melbourne, Australia, the unthinkable had happened: the US Women’s National Team had been defeated — and eliminated from the soccer World Cup." Schadenfreude? What misery of Americans are foreigners celebrating? I'm delighted those America-disdaining, over-hyped publicity whores crumbled on the world stage. That team purportedly representing America deserves all the mockery it gets. That team found itself bathed in a wave of schadenfreude when it lost. And added another wave when a lot of Americans woke up to hear that the team lost. President Biden said that despite the defeat, the team inspired Americans. Yeah, it inspired me that sometimes a-holes get what they deserve. Hahahahahaha!!!
Speaking of the purported needless atomic bombings of Japan in 1945:
Thank goodness two of the most annoying kinds of people on the planet are pitted against each other. Tip to Instapundit.
We knew this unprecedented post-World War II measure was coming. And I assumed the teams would only be on while in the most constricted waters: "About 100 Marines have been training in Bahrain for specialized defensive teams that would travel briefly with commercial ships through and near the Strait of Hormuz[.]" But how many will be out at the same time? And while designed to prevent boardings and captures, what if the Iranians mine the waters or otherwise attack the commercial ships with deniable weapons? How will we respond with multiple rescue efforts? And what if Iran "rescues" the crews and our Marines from sinking ship, but holds the Marines "to finish paperwork" before release?
This statistic is pretty stunning: "With limited other options for transporting oil exports, such as
pipelines, about 88% of all oil leaving the Persian Gulf goes through
the strait, the center said." Especially considering Gulf Oil producers have worked since the Iran-Iraq War to bypass Iran's ability to interdict Strait of Hormuz traffic. I thought more progress had been made. Apparently not. Unless the cheapness of the Persian Gulf route means the alternative pipelines are Plan B. Which is probably the way to bet, I imagine.
The never-ending complaint: "China is expanding its influence into Latin America and the Caribbean, and it could present increasingly greater threats to the United States, the top U.S. military commander for the region said Friday." As I always do when a SOUTHCOM commander complains about lack of resources, I offer this solution.
Making friends: "The Philippine military on Sunday condemned a Chinese coast guard ship’s 'excessive and offensive' use of a water cannon to block a Filipino
supply boat from delivering new troops, food, water and fuel to a
Philippine-occupied shoal in the disputed South China Sea." Second Thomas Shoal is the shoal in question. I also offer advice here.
Russia canceled their Derzky advanced corvette class: "Since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Russia has had problems dealing with ambitious new ship designs that were too expensive and complex to complete." I don't mind Russia cutting their losses as long as they keep trying.
China's civilian reserve amphibious fleet evolves. Does China have as many problems as Russia has revealed in Ukraine? Are Taiwanese as ready to fight as the Ukrainians were? I feel comfortable enough on the former but much less confident on the latter. Yet even if the answer to both is "yes", Taiwan lacks the depth to trade time for space as Ukraine had.
Yes. Next question. Didn't we have this debate over the crossbow? Killing has gotten more remote ever since a caveman sharpened the end of a long stick. With few exceptions, the morality question is whether killing is for a good or justifiable purpose. And even the exception of poison gas is probably just a Western European/American thing based on the horrors of World War I. I don't think other states have the same view. So far, only nuclear warheads seem to have a universal bad reputation for use. But that may be from consequences rather than morality.
Ukraine continues its line of supply interdiction campaign through Crimea. And Russia's strikes on Ukrainian cities surged above recent trends.
The American airman accused of bombing an American base inside eastern Syria was acquitted as the case fell apart in court. So who did it? Was it enemy action? Green (local allied) on blue (American)? And could it be done again?
Voyager 2 can once again phone home.
The Russian Ka-52M helicopter gunship operating in Ukraine.
If there was any truth to the notion that Ukrainians are really just Russians, Russia's brutal invasion of Ukraine has ended almost all of that. Near the end of the Cold War I had read a dry demographic study by a French author that showed that Soviet attempts to Russify the non-Russians was failing everywhere but in Moldova. And perhaps my hopes that Russia would join the West after the collapse of the USSR was always a fantasy.
South Korea stuck between America and China if they go to war. North Korea won't be a major problem for South Korea. I addressed the issue earlier this year.
Biden administration dismissal of verification provisions for the practically dead New START Russia-America nuclear arms reduction treaty is an invitation for Russia to cheat. Unless the whole issue is moot. Sometimes I think we go along with a Russian nuclear bluff to deter China from invading Russia.
Hopefully allies are ramping up, too: "The Army expects production of 155mm artillery shells will jump more than threefold next year from 24,000 per month to between 80,000 and 85,000 per month, said Douglas Bush, assistant secretary of the Army for acquisition, logistics and technology."
If all China has to do is delay America's military reaction to a Chinese attack rather than defeat America's military, this might be enough: "Anonymous officials from the Biden administration have told the New York Times that Chinese malware has been planted in the networks that control the critical infrastructure of military bases. The 'ticking time bomb' could potentially cripple military systems in the event of a conflict between the two countries."
Springboard: "Belarus began military exercises Monday near its border with Poland and Lithuania, amid tension already heightened with the two NATO members over Russia-linked Wagner mercenaries moving to Belarus after their short-lived mutiny in Russia."
In regard to the Winter War of 2022, when the going gets tough, the tough reassess their life plan: "Ukraine must have a militarily defensible boundary and a shallow concession. Russia must validate the claim that it is a great power and can settle for far more than Ukraine can concede. Each side must make a powerful move to convince the other that a bad compromise is better than defeat."
Tensions on the Israel-Lebanon border. One day, Israel might go big to smash Hezbollah.
I say carry out that purported promise after building a nice permanent concrete structure: "Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr on Wednesday denied making an agreement with China to remove a grounded warship that serves as a military outpost in South China Sea, and said if there ever were such a deal, it should be considered rescinded." That would be Second Thomas Shoal.
Holding their ground between democracy and killing jihadis: "The Pentagon is not only keeping U.S. troops in place in Niger but pointing to their presence as a vote of confidence in the people of the West African nation, even as hope for a restoration of the democratically elected government begins to dwindle."
China's leaning forward to compel neighbors to submit to Chinese dominance is pushing potential victims to want more from America: "President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that he plans to soon visit Vietnam in an effort 'to change our relationship,' with the Southeast Asian nation." Adding another cat to the herd, apparently.
They're old and they're few. But they're something: "Dozens of second-hand Leopard 1 tanks that once belonged to Belgium have
been bought by another European country for Ukrainian forces[.]" Get back to me when we're talking about dozens of Leopard II tanks.
Good: "The Pentagon’s counter-drone office will focus on neutralizing swarms of unmanned aircraft in its next demonstration planned for June 2024, according to a slideshow displayed during an Aug. 8 presentation by the office’s director." Maybe I'm wrong, but I think combat air patrol drones are needed to battle attacking swarms of drones, as I recommended in Army magazine.
A desperate Russia makes nice to North Korea.
I suspect this is all a U.S.-Iran ploy to engineer an Iranian retreat in the face of apparent American resolve to justify a new Iran nuclear agreement: "In a message of defiance and apparent preparedness for escalation, Iran warned on Monday that it could capture American vessels after the Pentagon beefed up its presence in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea."
Fingers crossed: "Twice in under a year, researchers at California’s Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory have managed to trigger a fusion reaction resulting in a net energy gain, or producing more power than was used to fuel the experiment." Tip to Instapundit. And also deploy air defense missile around our key electricity generation facilities.
Of course, this assumes that the leaders distant from Russia are trying to defeat Russia rather than bolster their own political futures: "While the provision of Western support to Ukraine has seen some notable successes, the slow pace of decision-making has made it more difficult to capitalise on Russian weaknesses." I think Biden painted himself into a corner--the right corner in my view--with a facade of resolve he never expected to have to sustain.
Assuming the Air Force can protect our stuff on the ground falls apart from the missile threat. So: "The U.S. Army will grow its Patriot air and missile defense force structure, the head of Space and Missile Defense Command told reporters in an Aug. 8 briefing." Defend those air bases, too.
Same as it ever was ... : "The Somali civil war began in the late 1980s. It quickly produced complete state collapse in 1991, ... Somalia’s civil war never ended. It periodically assumes different forms, of which the war in Las Anod is the latest." Somalia's independence was in 1960. So 31 years as a single state entity. We're at 32 years of Somalia not being a single state. I say admit reality and break it up for parts.
The J6 show trial is understandably reluctant to show its work. When the actual government is acting under color of law, we have problems. Tip to Instapundit.
Two years after the military needlessly lost the Afghanistan war at the orders of the Biden administration--which brazenly claimed success in this skedaddle debacle--there has still been no accountability in the upper ranks of the military leadership. Nah. It'll be fine. No need to discourage that sort of failure with employment and reputational loss, eh?
I'm sure the Taliban view this as tribute from the defeated: "A report by the Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction (SIGAR) notes that the Biden administration has given $2.35 billion to Afghanistan over the past two years, despite the fact that it is now ruled by the Taliban again following the disastrous U.S. withdrawal in 2021." I can't say they are wrong.
If the danger period for a Chinese attack is the next few years, this is prudent: "The Navy plans to extend the service life of four guided-missile destroyers that were slated to be retired in the coming years, adding four or five years to each of the warships’ standard 35 years of service."
More ammunition for Ukraine from America.
Proto-alliance in INDOPACOM takes shape.
Indirect Fires Protection Capability launchers take shape to protect Army facilities from incoming fires. Maneuver units still on their own.
China is working to incorporate its theoretically huge militia into PLA operations. No, not the Other Guys. Actual civilian militia personnel. Who knows if it would work out as intended, given issues raised in the article. People who leave military service forget usable skills in a shockingly short period of time unless routinely refreshed with training.
As I suspected, few of Ukraine's Western tanks have been total losses. If you can recover them, they can be repaired. No word on the non-tank armored vehicles. Then a long digression into tanks and tank-related themes.
UAVs as cheap cruise missiles (a.k.a. "suicide drones").
From the "Well, Duh files": "[Russian defense minister] Shoigu accused NATO of intentionally militarizing Poland as part of America’s alleged anti-Russia policy." The man is right about Poland. Gosh, what could account for that? What's a little invasion and nuclear threats among friends? I have a rule of thumb about Russia in Europe.
How can America promote rule of law abroad when corruption reaches our own White House with no punishments in sight? Good question. And rule of law is vitally important at home, of course.
Does the American military need more non-lethal weapons? One, they are "less-lethal" and not "non-lethal". And while it can be appropriate in some circumstances, in others where the enemy is out to get us, the enemy gets a big initial advantage knowing we aren't trying to kill them. Enemies can be very clever defeating non-lethal weapons with the confidence of knowing their own death isn't on the line. I'm just not a huge fan of getting carried away with supposed magical abilities of NLWs. (See? an acronym! It's military-grade for sure!)
Just in case: "Poland is planning to move up to 10,000 additional troops to the border with Belarus to support the Border Guard, Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said on August 10."
This does not shock me: "a paper written by the National Bureau of Economic Research found the best reason not to switch to a remote workplace: working from home is just less productive than working in the office, on average."
Leadership and training problems handicapping Ukraine's counteroffensive. The inertia of Soviet-era practices is heavy. That said, the army-within-an-army approach to creating a mobile force is good in theory. Germany did that in World War I and Iraq did that in the Iran-Iraq War. And Western slowness in providing military equipment has been a problem.Transforming while at war is no easy task. Still, Ukraine just has to be better than Russia to win. If Ukraine is better at Soviet-style attrition warfare, Ukraine may yet win if supported long enough.
The SM-3 Block IIA missile will get a test: "The U.S. Missile Defense Agency is planning a first flight test of some elements that will make up the air and missile defense architecture of Guam in December 2024"
Will a man on a white horse promise these people and others under stress that he will take care of their problems? "Bed-sharing comes as youth unemployment in China soared to 21.3% in June, per official statistics. Youths in China are classified as 16 to 24 years old." The Chinese Communist Party believes imposing party discipline is the key to survival. But what if this isn't a Gorbachev problem but a King Louis XVI problem? Tip to Instapundit.
I have two questions. How long does the gap have to be before America rewards Iran with cash for it not to be a direct payment? And how long before Iran restocks its American hostages? "After months of quiet negotiations, Iran and the U.S. have reached an agreement that would see five American citizens considered to be unjustly detained released from custody and allowed to leave the country, ABC News has learned." [LATER: More details on the huge ransom America is paying. Which means Iran will take more Americans hostage. Ah, Smart Diplomacy.® We're so screwed.]
Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
Nigeria stands on the cusp of getting much worse. Again.
Lots of Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine: "By June 10th 2023, Russian reporters compiled a list of 27,423 Russian dead. A month later the number grew to 47,000." The number is no doubt higher. Russian plans to mobilize 100,000 additional soldiers (outside of the usual recruiting cycle, I assume) might run into problems because of the losses.
Hmmm: "The material two alleged spies for China provided to their handlers point to a sustained interest from the People’s Liberation Army in amphibious operations as threats to Taiwan grow, two naval experts told USNI News."
Good Lord: "There are multiple Arctic and near-Arctic islands with power-sharing relationships that leave control of national defense to a larger entity—as in the case of Svalbard (Norway), the Faroe Islands (Denmark), and Greenland (Denmark)—while permitting local governments a high degree of autonomy. In each case, Moscow has expanded its influence with far too little resistance by Oslo or Copenhagen." Why have I never heard of this opening for Russia? I'd hope "little green men" would be followed by large NATO marines. Maybe America should buy Greenland.
Oh? "A major justification that U.S. administrations have used to overlook the inherent risks of arms sales is that, despite no empirical evidence, weapons sales allow Washington to leverage recipient dependence on American-made arms to force policy changes in line with U.S. interests." Once the shooting starts, unless the war is brief, America can absolutely leverage reliance on American logistics and ammunition supplies. I mean, do you expect our arms sales to turn customers into pliant colonies? They buy our arms because they have enemies. That won't change. But we do retain influence. I think the analysis is BS.
LOL: "Despite war and sanctions, Vladimir Putin is trying to haul Russia back into the space race."
This certainly signals that Ukraine is willing to lose ground there rather than weaken their counteroffensive on other parts of the front to reinforce that front: "Ukraine has ordered the mandatory evacuation of all civilians from 37 settlements in the north-east as Russia steps up its attacks there."
I have a couple of old short booklets on Lanchester Equations. I came very close to making that my career path. That and the Correlates of War project. I won't pretend to be more than aware of the general ideas of quantitative analysis in this field. But it is fascinating to me.
From each according to their electrical ability; to each according to their electrical need. And the state determines your ability and need. The "Big One" earthquake will just bounce the rubble that California's purported leaders are creating out of the prosperous state they were given.
Believe the science? Tip to Instapundit.
This is the kind of distracting BS you can do when the media fluffs you like there's no tomorrow. Tip to Instapundit.
We have no choice but to work with the Taliban? "For the sake of millions
of Afghans, regional actors as well as Western governments and
institutions must work to establish more functional relationships with
the Taliban." BS. "For the sake of" the people there we have to help an odious government that helped jihadis kill us? What about the sake of our people? I say let our enemies support the Taliban. I say let the Taliban make changes to get our aid. Why should we be stupid to fund their buddies? Why should we care more about the Afghan people than the Taliban government?
I did mention this problem not long ago regarding Ukrainian refugees and Russia's kidnapping of Ukrainians, including children: "The Ukrainian leadership was more aware of this situation and realized that losses in population were more serious than combat losses."
LOL! Tears of laughter, I swear:
I don't trust CNN. I think Trump has been unfairly, unjustly, and illegally targeted by the Democratic Party-bureaucracy-media complex. But I absolutely want to decisively defeat Putin in Ukraine. Just because Democrats are suddenly and oddly anti-Russian, I won't change my position on Russia. I just say, "Welcome to the party, pal."
My view is that this author uses the entirely valid exercise of judging whether it is in America's interests to resist a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in order to rule out American help. He doesn't even wonder if China should rule out a war because of hypothetical costs to them and whether America ruling it out just emboldens China. I suspect this author would rather rely on Fortress America.He was surely a stalwart soldier and may be a very nice man. But I just don't trust his judgment. Your mileage may vary.
OUT: The appearance of impropriety is bad. IN: The illusion of influence is fine. Via Instapundit.
Speaking of archeology: "Six Western nations marked the 15th anniversary of Russia’s takeover of 20% of Georgia’s territory by demanding on Thursday that Moscow return the South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions." The Europeans once made excuses for Russia. So, progress.
Another reason to help Ukraine win earlier rather than later: "All the heads of Ukraine's regional military recruitment centers will be dismissed, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced on August 11, amid concerns about corruption." As the emergency of the initial invasion wears off, corruption rears its ugly head. I've long warned about this.
Apparently British police are too busy protecting certain preferred classes of people with fragile feelings from online butt hurt. Tip to Instapundit.
The University of the CCP's many campuses in the West.
Ukraine used a couple of S-200 air defense missiles converted to ground attack in a failed attempt to hit the Kerch Strait bridge. Old NATO hands know it as the SA-5.
Good: "Japan and the U.S. will agree this week to jointly develop an interceptor missile to counter hypersonic warheads being developed by China, Russia and North Korea, Japan's Yomiuri newspaper said on Sunday."
