Is Turkey on the verge of civil unrest? (And for humor value, note that Erdogan is using his "charity" foundation, where his son sits on the board (!), as a vehicle for exercising power.)
Could Erdogan under internal threat change course radically and resort to a foreign war to take Syrian and/or Iraqi territory to bolster his side; or even turn to fellow autocrat Putin for backing in the knowledge that a Russia that will back Assad to the hilt for a couple bases would do what it takes to save Erdogan if success would secure access to the Turkish Straits for Russian lines of supply to the Mediterranean?
Battlestar Crimea would support military action from the Balkans to the eastern Mediterranean Sea.