Monday, April 18, 2016

Matches and the Powder Keg

Summer is approaching. So where do things just blow sky high and push out news of a Shark Summer on our east coast?

The Yemen cage match fight continues.

As I've long noted, I don't closely follow this war because Yemen always seems to be at war with itself, on the verge of war, or recovering from war. I assume at some point the Saudi intervention will lead to some deal--eventually--between the major Sunni and Shia factions that will settle down the war to a low roar that will allow America to go back to business-as-usual of sending in aid to the area and drones to kill jihadi terrorists the way we did when the country was the model theater in the president's war strategy.

The Taliban have renewed their fight for Kunduz in the north of Afghanistan, in their new "spring offensive" recently announced.

If Afghanistan collapses, it will be not because the Taliban are better fighters or more motivated than pro-government forces; but because corruption is still rampant in Afghanistan. Corruption favors disorder and when the government is defending disorder and the Taliban is pursuing disorder, you can see how the battlefield is tilted toward the Taliban in this crucial area.

That living piece of breathing garbage, serial pro-Iran revolt leader Moqtada al-Sadr, is stirring up Iraq again.

Hamas in Gaza continues to focus rebuilding aid on rebuilding Gaza's military capabilities, including this newly discovered tunnel into Israel.

Both Egypt and Israel consider Hamas hostile, and limit the nature of goods allowed into Gaza in an effort to avoid strengthening Hamas or other terrorist factions there. But note how the article describes the two countries' policies:

The tunnels toward Egypt are generally used for smuggling into and out of the Gaza Strip, which is under an Israeli blockade. Egypt's border with Gaza has also remained largely closed.

Ah. Israel "blockades" Gaza while Egypt's border with Gaza is "largely closed." The former is rabidly condemned by the Left while the latter is quietly ignored. But both countries do generally the same thing for the same reasons--Hamas is a terrorist threat. And I bet more goods useful to Gaza's people enter through Israel.

And the Russian-style "ceasefire" in Syria is fraying as rebels decide pro-Assad forces have made enough gains in military campaigns during the ceasefire.

Oh, and ISIL in Libya continues to strengthen their positions.

It could be one or more of these or other places.

I remain grateful we responsibly ended wars in the region.

UPDATE: Related:

Years ago, looking out at the Pacific surf from a beach in Chile, a friend -- alert to the ways of tsunamis -- gave me some advice about what to do if suddenly the water all went away. "Run. Run for your life. Because it's all coming back."

That advice has come to mind all too often since President Obama made his 2012 reelection campaign proclamations about the receding tide of war. Not that the tide of war has receded anywhere except perhaps in the fantasies of Obama and his followers. But after more than seven years of U.S. policy predicated on such propaganda, it's getting ever harder to read the daily headlines without the sense that there's a deluge coming our way.

Yeah, as I've noted before, retreating results in breaking contact with the enemy. If you are dense enough, you can mistake that lack of fighting for "peace."

It is not peace, of course. And when the enemy catches up, the fight resumes.