Monday, November 28, 2016

This All Seems So Familiar

I'm worried about Afghanistan already. Will the defeat of ISIL in Iraq and Syria send ISIL jihadis to Afghanistan?

Like I wrote, I'm not happy about trends in Afghanistan. Unless there is a robust Afghan-coalition winter offensive that really knocks the Taliban back before the traditional warm weather fighting season returns, we are going to have serious problems in 2017.

And with ISIL facing defeat in Iraq and then Syria, where will ISIL choose to flee?

They can't flee to Libya since that fall-back bastion has been wrecked by ISIL's loss of Sirte.

Will ISIL try to fade into the population to wage a terrorist and insurgent campaign in Iraq and/or Syria?

Or will ISIL flee to Afghanistan where the mountains and less effective opposition than in Iraq and Syria will allow them to survive and rebuild?

Remember that Afghanistan didn't become a real problem for us after 9/11 and our initial invasion until after al Qaeda's main effort in Iraq was defeated. Between that victory and Pakistan's decision to bolster support for "friendly" jihadis in the region, America's low-level effort to hold Afghanistan began to falter. President Bush had started to reinforce Afghanistan as Iraq was being won, and President Obama dramatically escalated the fight in Afghanistan after he assumed office.

So now, with a weaker position in Afghanistan, will another jihadi retreat from Iraq (and Syria) destabilize Afghanistan even more?

Will Pakistan behave better this time and make it harder for jihadis to seek a safe haven in the region?

I'd pay good money for Moslems to win their civil war against jihadis trying to define Islam in the sick and bloody way that jihadis want Islam to be.