Monday, August 22, 2016

In the Long Run We are All Dead

Even if Iran abides by the nuclear deal without cheating, I believe that Iran has routes to nuclear weapons that go through North Korea.

This article (direct link, or alternate access here) shows how all the hopes of of the Iran nuclear deal for shifting Iran away from a hostile and aggressive foreign policy are not working out.

And while that aspect isn't working it--yet, the administration says--the nuclear parts of the deal are working just fine, they say:

Today, only 5,000 centrifuges are spinning, the plutonium-making reactor has been made inoperable, and most of Iran’s enriched uranium has been shipped out of the country.

But if this nuclear deal is preventing Iran from going nuclear in the short term, as the administration says in contradiction to indications of problems already, they concede that in the long run--and that seems to range from anywhere from 8 to 15 years from the start of the deal--the deal will free Iran from all constraints on their nuclear programs and allow Iran to use the short run to gain knowledge and experience with nuclear technology free from worry about American military power.

So the long run prospect of a non-nuclear Iran requires Iran to undergo a metamorphosis in the short run from hostile, mullah-run, nutball regime that reaches out around the region to harm American interests to responsible regional power that might not even want nuclear weapons.

Yet consider the signs of claimed short-range success on the nuclear front: that Iran has their plutonium route shut down and can't accumulate enriched uranium. This means Iran can't get nukes, right?

Yeah, not so fast sparky.

Consider that Iran and North Korea are working together on nuclear missile development.

And then recall that North Korea has ramped up both their uranium and plutonium routes to nuclear warheads. As I wrote about this development:

I will note what I asked about a year ago when the news of new Plutonium production on top of their Uranium production came out:

North Korea increases production of two types of nuclear weapon material just as Iran agrees to suspend their work with possible military dimensions.

Isn't that a crazy coincidence?

Given that we know that Iran and North Korea have worked together, why do we assume that North Korean actions are related to tensions with America?

According to North Korea, we've been planning an invasion of that Pearl of Northeast Asia for 50-plus years now. It's imminent war 24/7 as far as Pyongyang is concerned.

But North Korea is desperate for money to survive. North Korea has but two potential exports: ballistic missiles and nuclear warheads.

And Iran has money. And because of the Iran deal, Iran has more money--including $400 million in cash.

Even if Iran abides by the nuclear deal without cheating, I believe that Iran has routes to nuclear weapons that go through North Korea.

What part of "Axis of Evil" was unclear?