Friends in need of friends: "The Philippines and Australia began their first joint sea and air patrols in the South China Sea on Saturday, days after Manila took similar steps with the U.S. as Pacific nations warily eye an increasingly assertive China."
The 1933 Oxford Union of British colleges students voted to not fight for Britain against Nazism: "The students’ pacifism and lack of patriotism was viewed as emblematic of the degeneracy of an ungrateful and self-indulgent young intellectual elite. Winston Churchill called the vote 'abject, squalid, shameless,' and 'nauseating.'" History rhymes, but with the objective of murdering all Jews proudly and enthusiastically proclaimed up front by Hamas. The Nazis of 1933 weren't openly the Nazis of the Holocaust a decade later. What excuse do the Hamas fanboys (and girls) have today? Tips to Instapundit.
The author sees Central Asia's former Soviet "Stans" as the place to do this: "As we work to strengthen our alliances in Europe and Asia, we should also look for opportunities to plant seeds of division between Moscow and Beijing—a relationship that had been described as 'one without limits' before Russia invaded Ukraine." I too see the possibilities.
Are Palestinian elections to make Gazans clearly responsible for the actions of their rulers really the alternative to this? "A protracted Israeli occupation therefore remains the most likely scenario, despite the fact that Israeli politicians and generals ardently want to avoid it and the Biden administration is opposed." Banning Hamas and other jihadis as the author advocates is pointless because everyone would know who the proxy for the jihadis is--or would become after violence and threats by jihadis out of power. What if 50 years of occupation is the only way to create Palestinians who love nurturing democracy more than murdering Jews?
Syria is part of Iran's line of supply to its regional proxies and Assad (who would love not to be a proxy): "An Israeli airstrike [last] Sunday hit the international airport in the Syrian capital of Damascus and put it out of commission, Syrian state media said."
Western sanctions are harming Russia's ability to manufacture ammunition. Part of Strategypage's discussion of wartime ammunition shortages.
No harm, no foul??!! "Armed assailants seized and later let go of a tanker linked to Israel
off the coast of Yemen on Sunday before being apprehended by the United
States Navy, officials said. Two ballistic missiles fired from
Houthi-controlled Yemen then landed near a U.S. warship aiding the
tanker in the Gulf of Aden[.]" Japan assisted. China did not. I heard that we determined the Houthi weren't aiming at our ship.
No harm, no foul??!! "US and coalition forces in Iraq and Syria came under attack four separate times on Thanksgiving Day, according to a US official." These attacks were happening long before October 7th.
It's dangerous to use shoulder-fired rockets: "Rocket launchers can deliver a blast that is often twice the recommended safety threshold." It's more dangerous to let enemies who can kill you live, but that's a wartime issue and not a peacetime issue. But peacetime training apparently causes more TBI than enemy IEDs.
I thought we were trying to deter them? "A major Iranian-backed militant group in Iraq warned Wednesday it may strike additional U.S. targets after U.S. warplanes killed multiple militants in response to the first use of short-range ballistic missiles against U.S. forces at Al-Asad Air Base earlier this week."
Short of major emergencies I don't like using American military forces for internal law enforcement. For short periods, MPs and support personnel could help free up civilian police. But too much action domestically will turn troops into police and make them worthless as troops.
Good: "Germany will provide Ukraine with an additional four IRIS-T SLM medium-range air defense systems[.]" Beginning in 2025.
Canada's front line: "The Canadian military’s acquisition of medium altitude armed drones is being delayed to allow for more development work to enable the aircraft to operate in the Arctic region."
Good Lord: "A senior UK defense minister told lawmakers today that a Royal Navy Vanguard-class submarine carrying Trident nuclear missiles was saved from sinking to a dangerously low depth after its crew used a back up depth gauge to keep the vessel diving within safe limits."
I am not persuaded by the space lobbyist for the National Guard that the National Guard should provide reserves for space force. It's a dual state-federal force and I just don't see state-level space missions. I remain a dreaded "nay-sayer."
Marines joined other allies for exercises in Finland: "The exercise includes mine countermeasures and explosive ordnance disposal, among other objectives, according to the Nov. 15 statement." Mine clearing opens land to amphibious assault and opens sea lines of communication across the Baltic Sea.
Few Ukrainian civilians remain in Avdiivka. The grindingly slow pace of Russia's invasion has dramatically lowered civilian casualties by giving them time to evacuate.
People seem far more upset about Gazan civilian casualties than about the Israeli civilian atrocities that started this war. Two things. One, we don't know what Gazan civilian casualties are. The only check we have is that hospital bombing where Hamas claimed Israel killed 500. In fact, a fellow jihadi's errant missile killed at most 50. Two, Hamas murdered 1200 and kidnapped over 200. Add in rape and torture and you have obvious war crimes. Israel is trying to kill Hamas which hides behind civilians, which means that except for odd potential cases it is clear that Israel is following the rules of war. My Lord, I'd bet far more French civilians died during Allied liberation than in the German conquest of France. Was Germany's invasion morally and legally superior to Allied liberation?
Obviously, the man who apparently shot without justification three young Palestinians--two Americans and one legal resident (is this where I insert "alleged" shooter?) should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. It doesn't matter that Palestinians celebrated the October 7th rape/slaughter orgy and have been marching and protesting here to justify that ever since. Yes, that spectacle is outrageous and even horrifying to see. But it is no excuse to kill. It doesn't even matter if the three young men hate Israel. We have freedom of speech here (or should have). Even if more comes out about the shooting victims that make them look bad, being attacked is not something we should worry about here. Hopefully the shooter didn't think a lack of law enforcement across America that has been created for violent allies of the left in the last several years was a license to shoot without consequences. I might not like the young victims if I met them. But I hope they recover fully. They did not deserve this.
It's voluntary separation by race so it's [... checks notes ...] for their own good? "School leaders in this college town just north of Chicago have been battling a sizable academic achievement gap
between Black, Latino and white students for decades. So a few years
ago, the school district decided to try something new at the high
school: classrooms voluntarily separated by race." Old timey KKK members must be kicking themselves that they didn't just pretend keeping minorities ... segregated ... was compassionate "equity" rather than racist hate. Tip to Instapundit.
Trudeau claims Canadian Conservatives defeated an update to a Canada-Ukraine trade deal because of MAGA influence; Canadian Conservatives said Trudeau is trying to hurt Ukraine with a carbon tax in the deal that would hurt Ukraine more than Canada has already been hurt. So who supports Ukraine more, really?
Under the radar: "U.S. INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES let their attention wander away from Iran-backed terror groups in their pursuit of al Qaeda in Afghanistan and ISIS in Iraq over the past two decades, leaving them vulnerable to plots by Hamas and Hezbollah for attacks here as passions rage over U.S. backing for Israel’s onslaught in Gaza, former FBI and CIA officials tell SpyTalk." I'm worried about our defenses.
The Navy's new 5" gun includes a "cluster" shell designed to stop massed suicide (or drone) boats or aerial drones, among other capabilities. Would it work against sea-skimming anti-ship missiles or torpedoes?
Are China and Russia best friends or wary partners? They're frenemies with temporary benefits. I'm still astounded Russia has destroyed its ground forces with China looming over Russia's Far East. Strategery.
Russia tried to invade new NATO member Finland with migrants who don't assimilate well: "Russia’s attempt to artificially create a migrant crisis at the Finnish border appears to be failing due to Finnish authorities’ swift response. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo stated on November 27 that the Finnish government will close the last border crossing with Russia 'if necessary' and reported that the Finnish government is ready to take unspecified additional measures in response to Russia’s artificially generated migrant crisis." That became necessary. Wait.What? You can close your border to illegal immigrants? Huh.
Hands off: "The U.S. and the Philippines conducted a three-day aerial exercise together last week, with fighters from both nations operating over the strategically vital South China Sea."
Trend or lull? "The barrage of attacks on U.S. troops deployed in Iraq and Syria has subsided in recent days, a Pentagon spokesman told reporters on Monday."
Good: "An enemy force had set its sights on Lithuania and was advancing rapidly on the small Baltic nation from the south, with the aim of capturing a major city." But watch the Suwalki Gap. I worry we will develop a Dyle Plan 2.0.
It's not just the South China Sea that China covets. Note that Japan controls the islands: "The Chinese coastguard said its vessels warned off Japanese ships that 'illegally intruded' into waters around disputed East China Sea islets on Tuesday."
I'd be far happier if Germany could capture Kaliningrad by D+14 of a NATO war against a Russian invasion: "The German air force is planning an exercise tour through the Asia-Pacific region in 2024, accompanied by aircraft from France and Spain, the partners in the trinational Future Combat Air System, according to defense officials." Sounds like a FCAS sales trip.
The U.S. military will launch a nuclear reactor into space. If we want to get beyond the Earth-Moon system--or populate areas off our planet--that's the way to go.
Is the recent Netherlands election a foreshadowing of drastic changes in EU policies on immigration and climate change? Or maybe the Dutch will be punished by the EU the way Britain was for Brexit, and cause voters to regret their voting choice. The proto-imperial EU counts on grinding down opposition with pain until it can erase the pesky prefix and just do what it wants.
Good: "The Ukrainian government has allocated billions of dollars to encourage Ukrainian weapons manufacturers, and not just existing firms, but startups as well as small operations that never considered the possibility of a large expansion." Ukrainians were once a major part of Soviet weapons manufacturing.
A $400 billion taxpayer-provided campaign bank account for Democrats. Tip to Instapundit. Cancelling it would be best. But at least re-direct the money to something we actually need. And, as that article notes, to Ukraine and Israel. I'll add to train Taiwanese troops from entry level to multi-brigade operations.
The Democratic Party character assassination machine continues to churn out hate. Via Instapundit. Honestly, that was a turning point in my view of the Democrats. Before then I could vote for local Democrats if I wasn't upset about how they maintained our drains, or whatever. I thought I should be open minded enough to do that even if I wanted Republicans at the national level. After that shameful display of brute force politics, I vowed never to vote for a Democrat for any office.
The Biden administration can try to mislead Americans about inflation, but the truth is that prices have skyrocketed under Biden even if the rate of rise has slowed from its dangerous peaks under his massive spending spree. Lowered rates of increase right now don't erase the increases in the last three years. Lying about it and insulting voters for believing their own lying eyes just intensifies the anger at Democrats. Via Instapundit.
Europeans are panicking over the idea that Trump would cut off Ukraine and throw it to the Russians.
Sabotage, incompetence, or corruption? "Russia is suffering a growing number of attacks, accidents or whatever incidents involving defense activities inside Russia. The government says recent railroad accidents include derailments and damage to signaling and communications equipment."
You think you hate and distrust our journalists enough. You don't. Tip to Instapundit.
I believe I mentioned this bizarre failure before, but it bears repeating (via Instapundit): "While the Hamas terror group was working with Iran to launch its Oct. 7 attack on Israel, the Biden administration’s intelligence community was ramping up efforts to combat climate change, raising questions about America’s failure to detect the terror attack." Did I call it, or what? "Some will invert the jihadi hate-fueled murder sprees and America's response to claim our fight against the jihadis caused the hate-fueled murder. And that we are, of course, now focused on the 'real' threats to America. That could be China, or Russia, or even--God help us--climate change." Unless "the climate" is conspiring against us, how is it an intelligence issue? And what else haven't we detected because of this insanity?
Focused on the dreaded submarine sandwich monopoly.
It's a corvette. And I don't believe it is "sophisticated." Iran boasts about its weapons far more than it designs them.
Strategery? "Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, in a ranting speech before a presidential election campaign, cast Moscow's military action in Ukraine as an existential battle against purported attempts by the West to destroy Russia." Will Russians ask why Putin is overseeing the destruction of Russia's military fighting Ukraine if NATO is such a major threat? If Russia shatters, that's on Putin. I just don't get Russia's stupidity. A chimp with nukes, I say.
A container ship "linked to Israel" will avoid the Red Sea route and instead go around southern Africa. It has been clear over the last couple years that Israel and Iran are waging a quasi war at sea.
Wow. What a small world, eh? What are the odds?
I had vainly hoped we'd retain enough Marines with heavy weapons to land on and take Hainan Island: "Yulin Naval Base, a home port for China's submarine fleet in the South China Sea, has undergone a significant expansion in a sign of continued investment in the country's naval capabilities, according to a new report."
LOL! I mean, I'm offended!
Damn: "A U.S. Air Force Osprey based in Japan crashed during a training mission Wednesday off of the country’s southern coast, killing at least one of the eight crew members, the Japanese coast guard said."
America airlifted humanitarian aid to Egypt destined for Gaza.
Good news: "The first-in-class aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford may cost less over its life than planned because of reduced maintenance costs[.]" Assuming a long life, of course.
Wait. What? Canada has a military? "The head of the Royal Canadian Navy issued a remarkably blunt and public assessment of his own fleet, citing numerous shipbuilding and recruiting issues that threaten the service’s ability to meets it obligations in the near- and long-term." Seriously, Canada's defense budget is near the bottom of NATO's spending level objective.
Chest beating and flinging poo: "The U.S. won't win the next arms race against Moscow, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said." Add that to your other boasts.
And yet when jihadis strike us we'll find the eavesdroppers were too busy listening to Americans lawfully dissenting from government policies to notice the terror plots: "A little-known surveillance program tracks more than a trillion domestic
phone records within the United States each year, according to a letter
WIRED obtained that was sent by US senator Ron Wyden to the Department
of Justice (DOJ) on Sunday, challenging the program’s legality." I once had confidence our government wouldn't abuse powers to protect us from enemies. Now I worry our government defines our own people as enemies.
Why are our defense institutions unable to build major systems effectively? "The U.S. Air Force is trying to develop the new LGM-35 Sentinel ICBM to replace the LGM-30 Minuteman III. It seemed to be a straightforward task but was not the case."
Western feminists are just as silent as the UN: "Women’s rights
groups and officials in Israel who have been working tirelessly for the
past six weeks to document cases of rape and gender-based atrocities
carried out by Hamas terrorists during their mass, brutal terror attack
in Israel on Oct. 7., say the United Nations is ignoring them." To be fair, American "feminists" are merely the women's auxiliary of the progressive cause. And now for something completely different:
Will drone-delivered small thermobaric bombs revolutionize infantry tactics?
Maybe: "Russia is running out of resources and options and the Ukrainians are taking advantage of that as quickly and thoroughly as they can." But "as they can" is the question for Ukraine, no?
I continue to wonder if Ukraine and NATO are working on getting Belarus to defect from Russian control.
Sadly, American defense design and production problems aren't unique in NATO: "The German army’s upgrades to the Puma infantry fighting vehicle will be late because of problems with the vehicles’ software, the Ministry of Defence has announced."
Meanwhile at the DMZ: "Seoul is considering how it will respond now that North Korean troops have returned to border guard posts after Pyongyang scrapped a peace deal in place for the past five years." The chest is being beaten. Will poo be flung?
When I write about Israel's efforts to destroy Hamas, that is shorthand that includes the allied jihadi groups in Gaza. I know I have specifically written that but I usually don't.
Sounds like the EU just gets in the way of national defense efforts: "The U.S. has increased its output of 155mm shells far faster than it originally forecasted, and plans to increase it further—if Congress can pass a budget for the nearly two-month-old fiscal year. Europe has moved more slowly than it intended to, hampered by the consensus-focused nature of NATO and the EU." But the proto-imperial EU will argue the production lag is a reason to strip away that pesky prefix.
Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed used divide-and-conquer tactics to isolate and destroy Oromo and Tigray resistance to his rule, the latter with particular brutality. Now he may be moving on to resume war against Eritrea. When the big powers are getting the attention with their wars and interests, it is probably easier to escape scrutiny and action. I believe I mentioned I thought it odd that Eritrea would help Ethiopia. And I've noted that Ethiopia said it wants access to the Red Sea again--which goes through Eritrea. Worse than wrong, Eritrean support for Ethiopia to defeat internal enemies was a mistake. I wonder how Iran will try to exacerbate conflict to threaten the Horn of Africa sea trade route. I wonder how Egypt--which feels threatened by Ethiopia's new Nile River dam--will react.
Venezuela's socialist nightmare appears to be gearing up to annex weak Guyana's resource-rich western territory. I've noted this threat to Guyana many times over the years, including here and here. FFS, Maduro has claimed tiny and weak Guyana is a threat to Venezuela. Apparently Axis of El Vil leader Maduro wants to get ahead of a possible international court ruling that I cited in the spring. Appeasing Maduro is working out swell, eh? I hope we are working up plans to help Brazil defeat Venezuela if it moves. Assuming Brazil is willing.
We wrongly assume America's borrowing and spending binge is something we have to decide to control. But in fact, lenders ultimately determine how much we can borrow: "Tuesday afternoon’s sale of 7-year Treasury notes was met with poor to lukewarm demand." I'd prefer to stop borrowing on our terms. Tip to Instapundit.
My state's leadership is stupid. Well, she gets the headlines and boost for any national ambitions from the equally stupid. Future leadership will be faced with coping with the predictable energy disaster. I did not vote for her.
If Elon Musk hates Jews, the people attacking him for his alleged anti-Semitism would be defending him as a brave member of the resistance. Tip to Instapundit.
Arguing that Finland was neutral until joining NATO and claiming Russia plans to do to Finland what it did to Crimea in order to "escape the prison of the Eurasian landmass" misses three things. One, Finland was moving toward the West for many years with exercises and purchases of Western weapons. Two, taking Crimea did not escape the prison given that Turkey holds the prison gates at the Turkish straits. And three, if the point is that Russians think they can repeat the near-bloodless takeover of Crimea, that 2014 success had unique circumstances that won't be repeated against Finland. And a fourth, I suppose. Finland joined NATO because it believed standing alone against a Russia pining for imperial restoration would be the real "world of menace and instability."
Armenia and Azerbaijan swapping exclaves makes too much sense to happen. I'm honestly not sure from the article what territory would be swapped, however. But if these two are happy, why not? Worries abroad that it would open up a can of worms in other former Soviet territories probably isn't too convincing for Armenia and Azerbaijan who could throw away the can of worms that has led to three decades of wars.
This is not shocking: "The German tabloid “Bild” said the quiet part out loud. President Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the well-sourced newspaper reported, plan to force Ukraine into peace talks next year by denying it the weapons needed to win." I've often said I think Biden only accidentally got pushed into supporting Ukraine and wants an exit strategy.
Setting Ukraine up for defeat: "[Ukraine and its allies] should accept and prepare for a multiyear war and for the long-term containment of Russia instead of hoping for either a quick Ukrainian triumph or, absent that, an imminent negotiated solution." The problem with that is Russia will be safe to throw itself into offensives knowing Ukraine's allies won't arm it enough to exploit defensive victories. With that approach, Ukraine has to win every defensive battle while Russia has to win only its last offensive. And if Russia does decide to stop offensives, it will not represent peace but a period of reloading so Russia can resume its invasion from the more advanced positions it captured deeper inside Ukraine during the current war. Westerners keep trying to redefine defeat as glorious victory.
And Democrats think Trump wants to be a dictator? How is that okay?
American Marines exercised with Indonesian troops in an around western Java for coastal defense. Adding a partner to sink Chinese warships in the South China Sea is helpful.
Does the Air Force need over 100 B-21s for all its nuclear and conventional missions?
There was a hearing in Congress about the inadequate Coast Guard icebreaker fleet for the Arctic. Wait. What? So the Arctic isn't going to be ice-free year round in the next few years? I can support more. But it seems a waste if the ice is melting for good. What is it?
Strategypage writes about the rise of UAVs and USVs in the Winter War of 2022. I disagree with the assertion that "the Ukrainians are attacking and driving the Russian forces out." I want that to be true. But Ukraine has done precious little driving the Russians out. Ukraine is attacking. And has inflicted disproportionate casualties on the Russians. Which may be more significant in the long run either on the battlefield or back in Moscow to drive the Russians out. But so far, little driving out.
The Winter War of 2022 kills Russia's space effort. Russia may be limited to hitchhiking on Chinese rockets. But Russia is a land power. And when the ground forces are savaged, anything not ground forces (excepting nukes) has to get hollowed out to replenish the ground forces.
Recalling the shell shortage of World War I that should have been a lesson for today's shortage. For the West. Whatever you may say about Russian performance, they've managed to keep shooting a lot of shells for a long time. I've noted this historical example. But my most extensive citation was in an article I submitted some time ago that didn't get accepted. But I've long cited the Iran-Iraq War as a lesson that wars aren't necessarily short and glorious.
The UK wonders if the fact that Covid-19 was engineered in Wuhan, China may have made coping with the virus more difficult. I've wondered that myself, actually. Funny how what was once a racist conspiracy theory is now trotted out to explain the failure of massive government efforts to contain the virus. Tip to Instapundit.
When "responsible" mainstream parties won't acknowledge the very real concerns people have with the damage caused by migrants who do not--or cannot--assimilate, voters will turn to whoever will address their concerns. Even if the politicians who address voter concerns are viewed by the mainstream as irresponsible or even dangerous. But given the damage done, who is the real danger? Tip to Instapundit.
With the lack of a new budget, the Pentagon can fund operations in the Middle East only by raiding readiness accounts. Because they can't raid anything else to buy time until a new budget is passed. Tip to Instapundit.
This has a point:
But as I've commented, "I keep reading that the Germans hate their militaristic past so much that they don't want to fight.
Let's try applying the clue bat to Germany's collective skull on this issue. Conquering and setting up death camps under the shield of a powerful military? That's bad. By all means, don't do that. Having a military capable of fighting death cult enemies or stopping the
Russians from moving west? Well, that's a good thing. Try doing that."
I feel the frustration. But I have an answer to the question, "How much longer must the USA be the glue that holds 'free' Europe together, or the force that keeps them from each other’s throats?" As long as we don't want the Atlantic to be our first line of defense in the east.
I strongly support having a good military. But I think Senator Tuberville's effort to insist that the military obey the law must succeed. It is up to Congress to pass a law to allow the military to do what it is doing contrary to the law. It is shocking that the military is obeying an unlawful order. It is unacceptable that this is going on and it is depressing it is all on one senator to stop it. And it is misleading to portray this dispute as a military readiness issue: "Without specifically referencing Tuberville or abortion, the survey broadly asked whether people think it's appropriate to block military confirmation votes in order to protest Pentagon policies unrelated to warfighting. Nearly two-thirds of respondents, or 63%, said they think it's inappropriate." It's a matter of rule of law, military duty to obey only lawful orders, and the basic fact that the military is America's military and not the president's military.
Don't drink and manage continental air defense. That this must be said clearly is depressing.
Kissinger has died at 100. To me his reputation is sullied by being a practitioner of the 1970s consensus that America was losing the Cold War and that it was up to diplomacy to lock in agreements while we had more power now than the Soviets. I was too young to know that and grew up with the belief that we had to defeat the USSR and that we could defeat them.
The media over-states public opposition to arming Ukraine.
The radical concept of publicizing China's subliminal offensive in the South China Sea. I was on that path nearly a decade ago: "Filipino fishing boats and coast guard vessels should broadcast live on video all their encounters with Chinese vessels and ships."
I find the idea that American military action causes jihadi terrorism rather than being a reaction to it is nonsense. That's one step from saying Osama bin Laden had a point. FFS, what doesn't anger Islamists?
Russia has had a high tolerance for its own casualties--300,000 total so far. I don't think this means it is limitless. But after thinking Russia had a low tolerance for casualties I won't try to predict what Russia's limit is. Especially if Putin orders general mobilization of civilians to refill the depleted ranks already sent into the meat grinder of the special military operation.
From the "Well, Duh" files: "Russia's once-elite paratrooper force is being padded out with low-quality soldiers that are eroding its elite status, according to UK intelligence." How could it be otherwise given the scale of Russian losses? And a new division deployed is probably worse than the existing ones that at least have survivors with experience. And if it drew experienced survivors from existing divisions that just made the existing divisions worse.
Of course, this doesn't mean Iran didn't hire or encourage the pirates given the focus on the Houthi, as the story implies: "An attack on a commercial shipping vessel, sailing under a Liberian flag but linked to an Israel businessman, was likely conducted by Somali pirates, the Pentagon press secretary told reporters Monday." Because I haven't heard news about Somali pirates in a long time.
After China has built up similar missiles on a large scale this is kind of funny: "China's state media this week lashed out at the United States over plans to deploy longer-range missiles to the Pacific, a move to deter the Chinese leadership's designs on Taiwan and other claimed territories in the region." We shall surely file their protest. And then continue the mission.
I guess I'd have no problem assuring China we will continue trading with them (with decoupling limited to strategic trade commodities and items) if China doesn't attack its neighbors who are our friends and allies. Because that's the reality regardless of what we say. But that kind of reassurance can never replace the hard power of deterring a choice for war.
Russia, China, and Iran are weaker than they appear. Well, sure. The main question is whether we are weaker than we appear. And I think including Russia in that ended in February 2022. Now I think they are stronger than they appear now. Or at least that they will eventually become stronger than they are now.
He's not wrong: "When I was younger, I remember being disgusted by the fact that Democrats were Soviet apologists. It appears that they viewed the Russian side of the Cold War as an ongoing how-to manual."
Buying votes. You can't give somebody a dollar to cast a vote. But a 127 billion dollar program is cool?
Canada plans to buy 14-16 P-8 ASW maritime patrol aircraft.
Imagine if the American government had responded to BLM riots and protests by banning any statements in support of BLM. Let's look at Ireland as it embraces fascism, shall we? The Irish Minister of Justice actually defended it: "'We are restricting freedom,' Pauline O’Reilly said, 'but we are doing it for the common good.'"
I completely agree that people over-estimate China's military strength. So of course we shouldn't appease China out of mis-placed fear. But don't let that become over-confidence. We aren't going to fight China on our West Coast. Or even at Hawaii. We'll fight them close to China's shores where our allies are dangerously close to China. Even a China weaker than we think might pull that off. Don't over-estimate Taiwan, for example. And note I was all over Russia's real strength before the Winter War of 2022.
Europeans can step up to arm Ukraine. So far they have not. Mind you, I don't think America will cut off Ukraine any time in the next several years. The level may go down. But it won't stop. And perhaps Europeans can buy weapons and ammunition they can't produce themselves from the U.S. for Ukraine to make up for any reductions in American military aid.
Refusing to believe their lying eyes: "Israeli officials obtained Hamas’ battle plan for the Oct. 7 terrorist attack more than a year before it happened, documents, emails and interviews show. But Israeli military and intelligence officials dismissed the plan as aspirational, considering it too difficult for Hamas to carry out." When you already think you know what the enemy can and intends to do, you don't need evidence.
A hydrofoiling sea glider to resupply Marine Littoral Regiment detachments? Naturally it is eco-friendly. Yeah, something is needed.
Iran is tightening its grip on three islands to control access into and out of the Persian Gulf: "Iran is now doubling down on its ‘ownership’ of three contested islands in the Strait, Abu Musa and Greater and Lesser Tunb." These should be high on Marine Corps contingency plans.
The artillery ammunition war: "Two procurement lessons learned from the Ukraine War were the stockpiles of munitions built up in case there is a war tend to be much lower than actually required when the fighting starts. To make matters worse, the production capacity for additional munitions is usually neglected." Thank God the West has learned this lesson now and not during a Russian invasion of NATO. Also, thank you Ukraine for forcing Russia to use up their stockpile. What I haven't heard about is the status of barrel replacements. A friend with reason to know told me that it takes two years to build a cannon barrel.
Ukraine is having counter-battery success using Swedish Archer truck-mounted 155mm guns combined with recon drones: "Archer counterbattery tactics have destroyed a growing number of Russian artillery and the Russians have not developed any defensive measures, except to shut down artillery operations and seek a hiding place from Archer."
Afghanistan on the ropes against itself. If they want to hurt themselves, I'm fine. It's really only our problem if they want to hurt us.
War: "The war in Ukraine has done enormous economic damage to both Ukraine and Russia."
A compliant Belarus that Putin has been slowly reeling in holds Russia's western front. What will February 2024 elections look like with popular discontent with Lukashenko? "This year, Belarusian President Aliaksandr Lukashenka has worked hard to consolidate his power, knowing that he may face some uncertainty at the start of next year." Russia can't risk losing the most important territory in Europe today. NATO has in interest in nullifying that threat. How much of Russia's military power will need to be held back from the war with Ukraine to deal with contingencies in Belarus if Putin's Mini-me goes belly up?
Western pressure on Ukraine to make some sort of peace with Putin founders on the reality that Putin wants to win the war. So don't believe Russian propaganda that Ukraine stands in the way of peace. Worse as far as I'm concerned is that Western pressure and lack of support for Ukraine helps Putin by letting him know that Ukraine can't go on offense against his armies. Knowing only Russia can go on the offensive would make it easier to Putin to keep trying to win. I mean, if his defeat is off the table, why would Putin stop trying to win? Although I really don't know why Trump's election is seen as such a potential disaster. I just don't see that.
Ukraine develops a stationary and mobile AI-enhanced robotic weapon. I assume a human is in the loop. Otherwise you just have to know how the AI identifies friendlies to defeat it. Once I thought that killer robots could have a role in protecting Israel's border with Gaza with less risk to humans. Hamas showed on October 7, 2023 that it can get around such a system with sheer scale of effort and hate. Although I did broach that tactic in the old post. Still, that Ukrainian development gives trench warfare and trench raids a different quality.
The Artemis Accords explained. Establishing Western-based rule of law in space, it seems. Tip to Instapundit.
Chicago still isn't MAGA country and Jussie Smollett has to return to prison for claiming it is. Good. Causing racial divisions should be treated seriously.
Not that it isn't any less of a crime, but I've long read that surrendering in battle is risky: "Ukraine's military has decried the apparent killing of two surrendering Ukrainian troops by Russian forces and said it considers the incident evidence of a war crime." Unless it is a large organized surrender, it may be much less risky to try to escape and get back to friendly lines.
At this point I'd like Republicans to move on from Trump. But FFS, Europeans need to stop listening to American Democrats panic about Trump. Let's remember what Trump did when in office. Trump did not withdraw from NATO when he was president. Indeed, Trump made NATO stronger. Get a grip, Europeans. You're embarrassing yourselves.
