UK MOD: "Ukrainian forces are using the experiences from the first two weeks of the counter-offensive to refine tactics for assaulting the deep, well prepared Russian defences. Ukrainian units are making gradual but steady tactical progress in key areas." We'll see what this looks like on the ground by the time this is published.
Huh: "The US Naval Criminal Investigative Service is investigating after multiple Navy personnel reported receiving unsolicited smartwatches in the mail that could be installed with data-stealing malicious software, an NCIS spokesperson told CNN on Friday." The Army, too. What did I say?
Did the Wagner Insurrection damage the Russian political system despite failing? Or merely reveal its schisms? And if the latter, I assume Putin will inflict more damage on this system as he roots out all the people he thinks are out to get him. Winning doesn't make the paranoid feel secure. Winning just proves one of their many enemies almost won.
LOL (via Instapundit):
The 1990s called and they want their Balkan hatreds back. I have to wonder if Russia is involved. It would distract NATO. But I don't assume locals aren't capable of reviving violence all on their own.
This is a problem: "An old American problem, defense projects that are completed over budget
and late, has proved impossible to eliminate. A recent assessment of 36
defense acquisition projects revealed that their costs had increased
over the last two years by $37 billion and most were late as well." To be fair, U.S.S. Constitution and her famous sister frigates were over budget and late. I guess I mostly hope our enemies are worse off rather than count on fixing it. But it would be nice to reduce the problem to a dull roar.
Russia's claimed motive for invading Ukraine collapsed--Ukraine did not need to be saved from Nazis and by their fierce resistance demonstrated they were not oppressed Russians waiting for Russia's help. Russia's high casualties and economic and diplomatic costs have led Russia's leaders to escalate their war goal to justify the casualties--restoring the glorious Russian/Soviet Empire. Putin might be at risk if that goal is accepted but Putin is deemed unable to achieve it. And what happens when Russia's casualties and other costs are too high to justify that goal? A bigger insurrection or coup to end the war?
Australia will provide more help to Ukraine, including 70 military vehicles.
Questions about China's economic prospects right now. Via Instapundit. Will India pass China by? Hmmm. Don't replace irrational exuberance over China with India.
Friends: "The US is seeking to assist India in developing its naval and maritime infrastructure to create an Indo-Pacific regional hub for ship repair and maintenance[.]" The hub would assist America in shifting naval power from CENTCOM to the South China Sea.
While I have wondered if Russian war failures might lead to civil unrest on the scale of 1905 or 1917, I don't think the Wagner Insurrection indicates one is near. Putin may have endured the worst of the divisions within Russia. After all, it was a one-day threat that didn't attract any elite support. That doesn't obviously weaken Putin. I'm reticent to let my hopes drive my conclusions that this episode dooms Russia's invasion. Civil unrest on a scale that threatens Putin may depend on whether Ukraine's counteroffensive can inflict a substantial defeat on Russia's military--not "mere" stubborn resistance to Russia's military. And if Russia does experience a coup, who knows what leader will step forward from that wretched hive of scum and villainy that Russia's political class creates? Also, I don't think this was a Putin conspiracy.
Thoughts on the Wagner Insurrection. Big question is what happens to Wagner units. I don't think it is safe for Putin to disband them and send them home. The best thing for Putin is that the men die fighting in Ukraine (in separate penal battalions dressed up as "assault" units?) or in Africa to spare some Russian soldier less prone to insurrection from dying. Keep them separate from regular formations to keep the Wagner units from infecting the other troops--or provoking battles between Wagner insurrectionists and angry regular troops. Fun fact: China sent a lot of the losing Nationalist troops from the civil war to die in the Korean War.
Oh, our government is effective all right. Effective in rewarding supporters and punishing the opposition. But seriously, do check it out. I agree 2-4 are problems. I have mixed views on 5, but I'm sympathetic. I reject 1. We've had 1 for a long time without having ineffective government. As Victor Hanson has said, when government officials spend their time spouting off on issues unrelated to their official duties, expect the official duties to be done ineptly. Tip to Instapundit.
I'm so old I have a game where the yet-to-be-made M-2/3 Bradley was called the MICV.
American Rheinmetall Vehicles and General Dynamics Land Systems will
compete for the Bradley replacement that the Army is now calling the
XM30 Mechanized Infantry Combat Vehicle. One day it will be the M-30. I had thoughts on a replacement in Infantry magazine (I thought the link was gone until I realized I needed to change part of the address for the new base name).
Welp, let's see if those leaner Marine infantry battalions of the future are just as mean without tanks and tube artillery. I've got a bad feeling about a lot of infantry on a modern battlefield trying to survive--let alone win--without armor and firepower volume. Fingers crossed.
The splintered rebels are tough to negotiate with, however: "Iranian influence on the Shia rebels is fading and many rebel factions call for some kind of peace deal and an end to a civil war that the rebels were losing."
Russia is using anti-tank mines to help slow down the Ukrainian counter-attacks. Those mines wreck the tracks and wheels. But remember, as long as Ukraine controls the ground where the loss occurred, the tank can be repaired for the surviving crew. Controlling the battlefield is important to reviving those "mobility kills".
ISW discussion of the Wagner Insurrection and the aftermath. Also: "The Telegraph, citing British special services, reported that Russian special forces threatened to harm the families of Wagner commanders during the armed rebellion, which may further trigger tensions and low morale."
I've noted this lateral movement of forces because of an apparent lack of reserves: "The UK MoD indicated on June 26 that Russian forces likely lack operational-level reserves that could reinforce against simultaneous Ukrainian threats on multiple areas of the front hundreds of kilometers from each other, chiefly Bakhmut and southern Ukraine." And subtract most of Wagner from Russia's force pool until Putin decides whether to imprison them, execute them, throw them at the Ukrainians to let their enemy kill them, or send them overseas to die for Russia.
Liability without limits? "'Chinese leaders must be concerned that China’s strategic alignment with a weakened Russia may turn out to be a net burden rather than a plus to China’s strategic interests,' [Brookings Institition's Patricia M.] Kim said." Indeed.
Drug war scam 2.0: "The Taliban have launched an impressive new war on drugs[.]" In the 1990s the Taliban engineered a temporary drop in Poppy production to get Western aid. The revenue and drug industry supporters were too important to the Taliban to stomp out. What the heck. This time we can totally trust Taliban 2.0!
After voting for Brexit in 2016, Britain still isn't completely out of the EU's grasp. Yet Remainers blame Brexit for everything going wrong in their zeal to rejoin the proto-empire. And Conservatives find it convenient to excuse their policy failures. Putin must be kicking himself over the superior power of 10,000 entangling EU cheese regulations over tanks and secret police to bind a subject state to its master.
Germany doesn't have much of a military, but it will deploy more forward: "Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Berlin’s decision to station an army brigade in Lithuania will enhance allied security along the eastern flank."
The military's recruiting crisis.
Is the wording imprecise or indicative of my major issue with retiring the A-10? "Moody isn’t the only base set to get a new mission to replace departing A-10s—the Air Force also announced that Gowen Field Air National Guard Base, Idaho, will transition to F-16s in spring 2027." A new mission? Not a new plane? My trust issues are not being addressed.
LOL: "Reuters determined that President Joe Biden and every living former U.S. president — except Donald Trump — are direct descendants of slaveholders[.]" Tip to Instapundit.
Obviously charges will be dropped only until the weapons are handed over: "Preparations are under way for the group to hand over its heavy weapons and equipment to the Russian army, the defence ministry said." Or perhaps lots of Wagner troops will subsequently end up falling out of windows or down flights of stairs.
Bulgaria will provide Ukraine with military aid.
America will provide Ukraine with more ammunition, anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles, mine- and obstacle-clearing equipment, and additional Bradley Fighting Vehicles and Stryker armored personnel carriers, among other things in the latest arms package.
Right now the goal is to get Sweden in before the July 11th NATO summit commences: "NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Monday that he will call an urgent meeting in the coming days to try to overcome Turkish objections to Sweden joining the military organization."
Belarus may attempt to use Wagner forces that choose to move to Belarus plus nuclear weapons as means to push back against Russian control by portraying Belarus as capable of halting NATO. Lukashenko is awful. But we really want him to be awfully independent from Russian control.
Russia seems to be stripping Wagner of heavy weapons in order to give them to Russia's National Guard. Which pulls needed equipment away from the war for internal security purposes.
Can Yemen become less clusterf*ckish?
Arguing for a thicker red line: "The British Army’s most senior leader has hailed the need for combat mass as one of the major lessons to be drawn from the Ukraine war and strongly advised against any further cuts to UK land capabilities."
Prigozhin is purportedly in Belarus. But is he alive? And will Putin really let Wagner fighters go to Belarus?
And now for something completely different:
The bill would also push the Coast Guard to work more closely with INDOPACOM: "A $91.5 billion bill making its way through Congress funding programs under the U.S. Department of Homeland Security includes provisions to continue supporting an increased U.S. Coast Guard presence in the Pacific."
Increasing price is making it more difficult to fulfill this requirement: "Muslims are required to make the journey to Mecca at least once in their lifetime, if they are physically and financially capable of doing so." Over time, one would think this trend could break this pillar of Islam.
If states can't sue the federal government to enforce immigration laws (tip to Instapundit), who can? The majority makes a good point on the need for priorities (so maybe have fewer federal crimes and laws to compete with this?). But if this is something that is supposed to be resolved by politics, doesn't the 17th Amendment make that more difficult?
Ukraine says the countdown to the end of Putin has begun. I'm sure Ukraine hopes that saying that is so will make it so. And it encourages their own troops to keep fighting.
Railroad sabotage in Crime and a failed drone attack on Moscow.
Conservatives mocked liberals for constantly saying they had the evidence on the latest alleged Trump crime. It never turned up. Are conservatives making the same mistake that the walls are closing in on Biden before there is something that rises to levels of evidence that is decisive in a court?
Should America be more active in Central Asia rather than let China and Russia dominate them? We can't be strong everywhere. It was hard enough to sustain efforts in Afghanistan. But we'll expend effort in landlocked Central Asia? I'm thinking this is a low priority. I want Russia and China to clash in Central Asia. At most, we could help Russia resist China there if Russia retreats from Ukraine--and stops promoting chaos in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. That would be Smart Diplomacy.
And I thought I was an optimist. To be fair, "moving toward" stability is agnostic on velocity.
Russia sends a message to China: "Taiwan scrambled aircraft and dispatched ships late Tuesday to monitor the passage of two Russian warships off its eastern coast[.]" The message is, "I swear to God we're still useful! Please don't invade us!"
Well that's unfortunate: "Switzerland blocked arms maker Ruag AG from selling almost 100 tanks in a deal that would have seen them used by Ukraine in its war with Russia."
We decided to build more because we couldn't manage to design a new destroyer: "The Navy on Tuesday formally took delivery of the first Flight III Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer from HII’s Ingalls Shipbuilding." With the new AN/SPY-6 radar and updated Aegis, it will have better air defense capabilities and will take over the carrier air defense role retiring missile cruisers have had.
And now for something completely different:
Friends in a dangerous neighborhood: "Australian and Japanese forces conducted exercise Trident 2023 over the weekend in the South China Sea."
To be fair, he did help create a doozy in Wuhan: "Georgetown hires Anthony Fauci as ‘distinguished professor’ of infectious diseases [.]" Tip to Instapundit.
Ukraine will get American AMRAAM air-to-air missiles. Right now this is for surface-to-air missile systems. I assume this will eventually be for F-16s or some other Western fighter.
Shortly before the Wagner Revolt, I wondered if fear of internal chaos would push Russia to end their failed attempt to conquer Ukraine. Does Putin have that fear now that Wagner revolted? Or does Putin think he weathered the worst of the threat because he defeated Wagner quickly?
It's very weird. Blogger stats indicate 60,000+ hits in June. Which is nuts. And I don't believe that. And while my other stats show a noticeable increase, it is nothing at all like that. And to make it weirder, that usually more accurate stat count's counter at the bottom of the page shows many more hits than the actual stats report it is based on. Very weird.
Hard to dispute this take: "At this point, lefties are basically in a contest with one another to see what they can get people to give up in the name of their Earth cult." Now go and emit no more.
Guard the skies: "The U.S. State Department has approved a possible $15 billion sale of an Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) Battle Command System (IBCS) and related equipment to Poland as it upgrades its air defenses[.]" America needs a secure location to send reinforcements to its new European center of gravity safe from Russian missile attacks.
Estonia arms ups and why countries want American troops.
Helping the ground attack missiles get past defenders.
At this point I assume Russia is behind the burnings to get Turkey to keep Sweden out of NATO: "Several Muslim-majority countries have condemned the burning of a copy of the Quran in Sweden at a protest." As long as governments are issuing protests rather than seeing mobs of enraged Moslems killing Infidels and rampaging through their neighborhoods, I call this progress.
Why can't Americans be as science-based on medical treatment as Europeans? Tip to Instapundit.
The Claymore directional mine. I'm sort of fond of this weapon. In basic training I had to carry one around and provide the platoon with lessons on its emplacement and use during gaps in training. And really, "Front Toward Enemy" is kind of funny, no?
The Marines want smaller prepositioned equipment ships for disaggregated operations in the Western Pacific. Hmmm. So how do they operate in the shadow of China's anti-ship missiles? If the idea is to have more targets than China can hit, just how many are planned?
Ukraine will get the vehicle-mounted, 124-mile range Naval Strike Missile.
NATO plans to revive once-downgraded and lightened ground forces. Plans are cheap.
How to lie like a professional (via Instapundit): "The former spies and Biden campaign aides who smeared Hunter Biden's laptop as Russian "disinformation" have remained silent following revelations that the FBI authenticated the computer nearly a year before it was released." The former spies said that the laptop looked consistent with Russian disinformation. Later, at least one farcically said nobody claimed the laptop actually was disinformation. Yet none stood up to correct the impression they gave when the media ran with their statement and assumed the laptop was disinformation. But hey, it worked, didn't it?
There is renewed talk that Biden will revive the awful Iran nuclear deal. Recall my prediction of what the deal would be before the first one: "The Iranians will pretend not to have a nuclear weapons program; and we will pretend to believe them." I've only slightly altered that prediction:
Okay, I may lose some readers (and won't gain any). But I try to provide perspective. I have partisan views but I try not to let that interfere with analysis. I suspect the Pride slogan "We're coming for your children" wasn't meant literally by 99.8% of the chanters. It's like murder mystery shows where the initial suspect is someone overheard before the body is found saying, "I'm so mad, I could kill him!" I think the problem is that everyone excuses hyperbole from friends because we know they don't really mean it. But think foes are actually revealing their deep dark intent they usually hide. I complained about the left's fear of a conservative "insurrection" for the same reason. So you can't say I'm not consistent, at least. Words aren't violence. Mind you, this is a separate issue than child mutilation in search of the right pronoun match.
Yeah, I remember the good old days. They sucked compared to today. We had deeper political divisions and more political violence. Tip to Instapundit.
Interesting: "Labor strikes are rising in China as weak demand sees factories shutter and workers’ pay cut." Let me know when they get angry at the Chinese Communist Party for that. Also, let me know when the police stop being willing to arrest, beat, or shoot them.
Does the Russian record since the Crimean War defeat indicate Russia will experience a societal shake up after the Winter War of 2022? One, four examples is a small sample size. Two, the Russian empire is shrunken now, with fewer centrifugal forces at the periphery. And three, Russia hasn't lost this war yet. Russia has performed poorly. But that's different. So I don't know.
Three potential outcomes for the Winter War and implications for Taiwan, mostly regarding Western aid for Taiwan. I think a stalemated partial Russian win's implications for Taiwan are most dire because it would encourage China to believe an invasion could be a multi-step process to conquer Taiwan.
The Pentagon says no decision on providing ATACMs to Ukraine is imminent. Which means Ukraine will get them.
Practice: "The U.S. and its allies intercepted American B-1 bombers coming across the Atlantic toward North America, in a NORAD-led exercise simulating an enemy attack on June 26." That seems prudent.
Some so-called peace group said putting American forces in Somalia was based on an exaggerated threat to America. Well let's just wait until they hit us? I say make more good jihadis.
Australia really should lock down friendly relations with the Solomon Islands.
Good: "The US Supreme Court shot down the Biden administration’s controversial
plan to forgive billions of dollars in federally-backed student loan
debt, a decision that means millions will have to start making
repayments later this year." As a 17-year-old newly admitted college student, I knew enough not to take more than the smallest interest rate loans. And few of them. I understood I'd have to pay them back. And as a father I put away money for my children for college. Paying the loans with my taxes of moron college graduates who took too many loans would have been a killing blow against good citizenship for me others who didn't spend our money on luxuries and then claim victimhood to get other taxpayers to bail out their poor decisions. [LATER: Damn them to Hell. It's a bailout for the liberal upper middle class, pure and simple.]
It would be nice if this is true and it pressures Russia to withdraw from Ukraine: "Russian forces are losing ground in Ukraine and facing possible civil war at home." My judgment is that the frontline troops are focused on immediate problems: "So unless Russian leadership effs things up behind the lines, I think there is a good chance Russian troops still holding the front are unaffected by the Wagner coup attempt. At least in the short run." I'm working hard not to let my hopes lead me too much.
I speculated that Wagner forces had to reach a certain distance from Moscow to get open Russian military support. Well, "zero" is a number: "many senior Russian generals quietly agreed with Prigozhin and some were secretly in touch with him and ready to openly back Wagner Group forces against Putin, but only if Prigozhin marched into Moscow."
The Marine infantry battalion evolves. Of course it has drones. Also, Switchblade suicide drones couldn't handle Russian countermeasures and are no longer produced. Better to know now.
Biden's brain dies in darkness. "Journalists." If only we had those. Tip to Instapundit.
The SR-72 approaches. Maybe. I wonder if it can actually reach or operate in space in unmanned mode?
ABC: It would be a shame if something happened to your little opinion polling company. "Journalism." Tip to Instapundit.
The game of thrones inside Russia. Maybe the leadership shake up will make things worse. I worry that Putin might stumble upon somebody who is effective to take charge of the war.
Higher education is taking a beating in America as it has expanded and provided too little value for too much money to too many people. There should be a well-deserved contraction and reform for the survivors. But what do we do with all the over-educated morons who believe they should be running things despite their farcical degrees? An oversupply of such people is a recipe for unrest.
Oh FFS: "Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met Thursday with Swedish environmental activist Greta Thunberg and prominent European figures who are forming a working group to address ecological damage from the 16-month-old Russian invasion." Yeah, that's the biggest problem with Russia's brutal invasion of Ukraine. Greta can go to Hell.
Also, HRW can go to Hell: "Human Rights Watch (HRW) has urged Ukraine's government to follow through on its recent pledge to avoid using banned antipersonnel land mines and investigate and punish their use so far in the war with Russia." How about punishing Russia for invading?
But other than that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln? How would a cabal of our enemies inflict more damage on us? Tip to Instapundit.
You spelled "to help encourage migrants to go north to Europe" wrong: "The U.N. Security Council voted unanimously Friday to immediately end its peacekeeping mission in Mali as demanded by the country’s military junta, which has brought in mercenaries from Russia’s Wagner Group to help fight an Islamic insurgency."
My impression is this is a Plan B to reassure Ukraine to accept less than a complete ejection of Russia from Ukrainian territory in a peace treaty or ceasefire if the counteroffensive does not make a good start on that objective: "NATO members are closing in on a compromise on Ukraine's membership aspirations that may set out how Kyiv could join the military alliance, the U.S. ambassador to NATO said on Thursday."
Riots in France over the police killing of a 17-year-old of North African origin. I assume the rioters are Moslem. One day the riots could have a bigger purpose than just reactive rage. They're certainly big enough. Imagine what Iran might do to make a claim to be the protector of all Islam and not just Shias if it gets nuclear missiles. Not saying Iran would nuke France. But Iran might be far more vocal and might extend aid to those growing "no-go zones" knowing their own nukes limit France's reaction. Jihadi lives matter, Iran will say. Say, here's a vocal reaction to Sweden's freedom of speech. And that would certainly distract Iranians from protesting the Iranian government. And earn Iran some points with new friend Russia for destabilizing a NATO state.
More than a decade ago I worried that failing to win the war on terror would threaten civil rights at home in an increasingly intrusive battle against terrorists here. What I didn't suspect was that our security apparatus would shift from looking for foreign-inspired jihadi terrorists to defining lawful dissent as terrorism. That was inconceivable to me. It was a failure of imagination. Can we dismantle what our post-9/11 security laws have led to?
Oh? "On the surface, the turmoil in Russia would seem like something for the U.S. to celebrate[.]" It is standard operating procedure to quietly stand out of the way while your enemy is busy fighting itself.
How's that restoring our trans-Atlantic relations that Trump "wrecked" going? Oh: "A week ago we learned that US President Joe Biden, the leader of the free world, appeared to have blocked Defence Secretary Ben Wallace’s candidacy for Nato Secretary General. British officials were understandably furious[.]" Our closest ally. This is shameful. But Biden will call it Smart Diplomacy®. FFS.
Michigan didn't really propose to make it illegal to "misgender" someone. House Bill No. 4474 would add misgendering to statutes about "ethnic intimidation" against defined protected classes, enhancing penalties for the base crime. Much more is required than merely using the "wrong" pronoun to be guilty of ethnic intimidation. For example, stalking someone and repeatedly using the "wrong" pronoun might fit the definitions. Or beating up someone while yelling "You are not a girl!" or some such thing. Although I imagine if passed this law will be mis-used against someone, as this author (tip to Instapundit) writes, "it might not be abused today. But it will almost certainly be abused at some point." I'd expect a challenge in the courts for that. I think this change is stupid. And I have problems with the underlying hate crime law that allows only some victims to get the benefits of harsher sentences for their attackers. But as written it shouldn't require specific pronoun use. The bill narrowly passed the House and is in a Senate committee.
Shit getting real: "Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki says his country wants to join NATO's nuclear weapon sharing program."
Interesting: "During a secret visit to Ukraine by CIA Director William J. Burns earlier this month, Ukrainian officials revealed an ambitious strategy to retake Russian-occupied territory and open cease-fire negotiations with Moscow by the end of the year, according to officials familiar with the visit." Ukraine hopes by the fall to have retaken some territory in the Donbas; take substantial territory in the south; and put Crimea within range of long-range weapons.
The Chief of Space Operations wants Space Force to focus on protecting assets down on Earth rather than just satellite protection. I'm sure that's a problem. Remember who spun them off.
The Pentagon can claim they aren't woke. But saying veterans are wrong to discourage enlistment isn't going to cut it: "Pentagon scrambles to retain the main pipeline for new service members as disillusioned families steer young people away[.]" Thank you for your service. But FFS, your pronoun is "major". The Pentagon needs to demonstrate it isn't too woke to be entrusted with our young men and women. Because the woke sure aren't enlisting.
Ah, a sense of urgency: "The Navy has not developed a full cost and schedule estimate for its Shipyard Infrastructure Optimization Program (SIOP)—an effort to improve its dry docks, facilities, and equipment—and reports that it will not be able to do so until fiscal year 2025." I'm sure the Navy will get around to it.
Science! Put up that "IN THIS HOUSE WE BELIEVE ..." sign, stat! Tip to Instapundit.
Progressive tolerance: Stay away but send a gift, you deplorable monster. Yes (and bravo), a candidate for the "Bridezilla Hall of Infamy." Tip to Instapundit.
NATO and Western allies are continuing to train Ukrainian recruits. Is the pipeline enough to replace Ukrainian losses on offense?
