I Will Remember 2020 As a Good Year

The year 2020 will be a good year when I look back on it.

The year 2020 has been for me one with problems that predated the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic. But those problems are being addressed if not resolved. The pandemic itself has not created any new problems that won't pass with the end of the pandemic. And there has been good that as the years pass will overwhelm the bad and define this year for me. 

One part of my view is that problems could have been way worse if the pandemic had hit in the previous years. Or even a year later. So I had that going for me.

So the bad has been contained for now. There have also been a number of good and neutral things this year. And one good thing will be what defines the year: My daughter graduated from high school and began college. And she was admitted under the pre-pandemic standards before they seemed to decline across the education world in response to the pandemic. So nobody will ever be able to say she got into her university on anything less than her qualifications.

Sure, there is much that is out of my hands. Voters vote, politicians act, and overseas friends, foes, and enemies act in ways I don't want them to. I don't like those things. Some annoy me and some infuriate me. But those things don't define my personal life. I influence what I can and cope with what I cannot influence.

So yeah, 2020 will be a good year despite this once-in-a-century pandemic. I really am a glass half full kind of man, aren't I?

I know that many people have endured much, whether from the pandemic or from the reaction to the pandemic--both justified and unjustified reactions. So I don't dismiss the losses that many people have endured and that will take time to grieve and overcome.

But while I can already foresee viewing his year positively, my hope for those who have endured much will with the passage of more time be able to look back on 2020 and say that it was a good year. Whether in the balance or because of what you did to overcome the problems of 2020 that helped you for the rest of your life.

Happy new year!

Crunch Time

Hezbolah is boasting of its loyalty to Iran and ability to hit Israel and determination to hit American targets. Explain to me again why that would not invite an American-backed Israeli campaign to shred Hezbollah?

On the anniversary of Soleimani's death, Hezbollah boasts of its increase in precision weapons capable of hitting Israel:

The Lebanese terrorist group Hizbollah has doubled its arsenal of precision-guided missiles in the past year, its leader has claimed, despite Israel’s efforts to stop it acquiring more weapons.

Hassan Nasrallah, the group’s leader, said he had the capability to strike anywhere in Israel and occupied Palestinian territories using the missiles, which the Iran-backed group has threatened to use against targets such as oil refineries, air force bases and the Israeli military’s headquarters in Tel Aviv.  

In a televised interview, Nasrallah said that Hizbollah would retaliate to any attacks on its strongholds in Lebanon, while the group is also seeking to avenge the killing of two of its members in an Israeli air strike in Syria in August.

He also repeated a vow to take revenge for the killing of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commander, Qassim Soleimani, by an American drone strike in Iraq on January 3 last year.

But don't you dare say Hezbollah is a pawn of Iran! 

Does Israel go in to occupy the rocket-launching sites shortly after the new year to avoid immediate Biden retaliation? I've been expecting this for some time, but Israel knows that Biden will not be friendly to Israel and may be hostile the way Obama was.

I mean, as long as Hezbollah is telegraphing its intent to hit Israel and America, why wouldn't Trump green light and bolster an Israeli military mission to tear up Iran's vassal force Hezbollah before Biden can marshal full punishment of Israel for getting in the way of Glorious Iran Reset 2.0?

Wouldn't America's armada in the region, which includes a cruise missile sub, a carrier, and a light carrier, plus aircraft--and Israel's nuclear-capable submarine--be a warning to Iran to sit and take it or experience worse than the loss of their Hezbollah proxy?

SDF? I Thought You Were Dead

A joint Coalition-Kurdish operation targeted remaining ISIL forces in northeast Syria.

This is good:

U.S.-backed forces are carrying out new raids against militants affiliated with the Islamic State (IS) terror group in eastern Syria.

The new campaign led by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) targets remnants of IS in Deir al-Zour province, which borders Iraq.

The SDF, a Kurdish-led military alliance, said its ongoing operations have been focused on active IS cells in the northern part of the province.

“On December 26, our Special Forces and International Coalition Forces arrested a member of a terrorist cell north of Deir al-Zour, during a joint raid operation,” the SDF said in a statement Sunday.

Wait. What? I thought Trump abandoned the Syrian Kurds? As I wrote about that accusation:

We aren't abandoning the Syrian Kurds. We are abandoning the Kurds' goal to hold the border region which anti-Turkish Kurds need to fight Turkey.

We've been trying to protect the Kurds in that border area but we've run out of stalling tactics. The Turks were coming in and we could fight the Turks or get out of the way. What should we have done under those circumstances?

This is bad. I don't like siding with Erdogan over the Syrian Kurds. I don't deny that. But it could be worse.

Again, America is not abandoning the Syrian Kurds, as our officials have stated[.]

A year later American-backed Kurds with American help are still fighting our common jihadi enemies.

Just Who is a Threat of Going Rogue?

This author thinks that the Brexit trade deal does in fact restore British sovereignty. But he points out a rather insulting provision that the European Union put in to jab Britain. I think this might be a useful tool for Britain against the EU.

While the deal has provisions that appear to let the EU hang on to influence over British law, in practice the provisions are toothless.

And this is interesting:

There are sections [Law Other 137, for example] involving ultimately pointless chest beating over the ECHR, fundamental freedoms and the rule of law. Pointless because these clauses will never be violated: neither the EU or UK are rogue states. We are friends, allies and equivalent partners trying to uphold democracy. The pantomime suggestions the UK would go rogue were, unhelpful, at best. 

If the EU people put this in to jab Britain by implying Britain could be a rogue threat to the peace and happiness that the EU is supposedly building, it might be a double-edged sword that can be used when the proto-imperial EU sheds that prefix and goes rogue.

And I think it is more likely than not:

Europe without American help has the economic, demographic, and scientific base to keep a weakened Russia out of Europe. But if left on its own, Europe's long history of autocracy will return and risk a Europe that again poses a threat to America.

The unofficial reason for NATO after World War II was to "keep American in (Europe--unlike after World War I), keep the Russians (Soviets) out (of Western Europe, after the Soviets advance to the Elbe River), and keep Germany down (after starting two world wars)."

The modern purpose of NATO is to keep America in Europe, keep Russia out, and keep European autocratic impulses down. The third reason is a real threat that is easy to forget in the post-World War II time frame that we remember as the normal state of European affairs. And the first reason is the means to achieve the third.

We forget the role that America played in creating the free and democratic Europe that we wrongly assume is the natural state of now-free Europe[.]

That post is a reminder--one that I needed when I first ran across another author who mentioned it, and I said to myself in a blinding flash of the bloody obvious that I hadn't really thought about, "Well duh"--that the modern democratic Europe was built by America's presence in NATO after World War II and the expansion after winning the Cold War. Prior to 1945, Europe was not the beacon of democratic freedom without that ugly "American" military might thinking that the Europeans claim to be today. 

So Britain, which does have a long history of democracy and freedom, is not a potential rogue state.

But the EU, with its host of member states with rather thin resumes' of real democracy, is not the bastion of rogue-free governance that it annoyingly claims to be.

I think that the EU actively seeks to become a multi-ethnic empire through a gradual accumulation of power that ultimately suppresses those ugly nationalists who the EU elite believes were the cause of the many wars in European history.

Without NATO and America, rule of law will slip away in Europe as brute force is increasingly used on the people of Europe to keep them in line; and the EU will shift to open hostility to America.

America needs to remain involved in NATO while keeping NATO strong as an institution to prevent Europe from being controlled by a hostile government that can mobilize its still vast demographic, scientific, and economic potential to be a real military threat.

Defend the Win

Rule of law is the ultimate defense of the Iraq wars success.

Iraq wants loans to cover their budget holes, but the IMF rightly concluded that without rule of law more loans would just disappear into the maw of corruption that is killing the future of Iraq:

Iraq was hoping the IMF (International Monetary Fund) would help bail the government out of its growing budget deficit crises. An IMF audit team completed a ten-day examination of the economic situation on December 10^th and reported that Iraq has the same problems it had for several years, only worse and that the solution was not more multi-billion-dollar loans but internal reforms that address the widespread corruption. Earlier audits had found that corrupt officials were responsible for $400 billion of government funds stolen or misappropriated since 2003.

Note that the corrupt Saddam-era bureaucracy of 2 million has expanded under majority Shia rule to 6 million. So the corruption just expanded to benefit the majority rather than just the minority. 

The bright side is that Saudi Arabia is finally competing with Iran for the friendship of the Arab Shia in Iraq. Although without rule of law Saudi money will just fuel corruption. 

Still, with Iran selling  methamphetamine to Iraq you'd think Iran's appeal would tarnish faster than it already has. 

I've long felt that after achieving military missions that we need law enforcement and judiciary reforms to hold the gains made by force of arms. There are more Iraqis who understand this and are willing to protest. 

Will Biden make the rule of law effort so that Iraq will be one of the great achievements of his tenure?

Judging Victory

I appreciate his effort on Vietnam given my repeated efforts to get people to recognize that America won the Iraq War. But judging Vietnam is complicated.

This is a worthy effort:

The United States sent 2.7 million men and women to South Vietnam to help preserve the Democratic Government of that nation. Nearly sixty thousand were killed and/or missing in action. Ignoring the truth concerning winning of that War is disrespectful and a slap in the face of those who served and a disgraceful epitaph to those who were killed and those still missing in action.

For about ten years I have been trying to get this Nation to acknowledge the fact that the United States military won the Vietnam War. 

It is a worthy effort because Vietnam veterans went to war and did their duty yet were denied a recognition of their honorable effort even if in the end the country we defended was defeated and destroyed.

But it isn't as simple as convincing people America won the war.

One, it is true that South Vietnam stood when we pulled our troops out. So technically we won the war we were in. And I have great sympathy for that military-centric view. Our military did defeat enemies and build up local allies to hold when we left.

But America fights wars and not the military. So the failure of Congress to allow America to support South Vietnam with supplies or fire support meant that America failed to secure the battlefield victory. Are we really going to rest a debate over victory on whether we truly had a "decent interval" between leaving South Vietnam and the fall of South Vietnam?

Two, victory also depends on the level you look at. Was it the Vietnam War that is judged on its outcome narrowly? Or was it the Vietnam campaign in the Cold War against the USSR and communism in general?

Even if you think America lost the Vietnam campaign, I think the fight there helped win the Cold War. When America first entered the fight, the region from India to Southeast Asia was weak and vulnerable to communist subversion. The decade America bought for those countries by holding the line in South Vietnam probably kept them in the Free World. The dominoes that fell after South Vietnam were limited to Laos and Cambodia. In 1965, the repercussions could have gone all the way to India.

Further, the willingness of America to lose 60,000 troops in defense of South Vietnam had to have an effect on deterring the Soviets from attacking the far more important NATO Europe. What would we do to hold Europe if we were willing to lose 60,000 in South Vietnam?

Three, the military itself contributed to the image of defeat in Vietnam by wrecking the Army as it withdrew it from South Vietnam. It feels right that a decimated Army reflects a loss in the field. 

My guess is that if the Army had been ordered to withdraw as units instead of shuffling units which destroyed unit cohesion in order to send the longest-serving troops home first that Vietnam would not be seen as a defeat of the Army. 

And four, given this self-inflicted it is somewhat dangerous to speak of Congress losing the war that the military won. I don't want the Army to develop a "stabbed in the back" attitude toward civilian leadership. 

Fortunately, the battlefield successes in the Long War, including the Iraq and Afghanistan campaigns that did not involve wrecking the military in the process, has--along with 45 years of distance--moved the military beyond that old potentially festering wound of Vietnam. I think we can safely admit that America lost the Vietnam campaign when a conventional North Vietnamese Army conquered South Vietnam despite the earlier battlefield victory over the Viet Cong insurgency and their NVA friends/masters (and yes, it was a blend of insurgency and conventional warfare despite the shorthand) which failed to hold the support of enough people in South Vietnam to overthrow the Saigon government.

So good luck. But convincing Americans to recognize that America won the Iraq War--and so be willing to defend the battlefield victory--is a higher priority right now.

And sadly, recognizing American victories is difficult for Westerners who too often insist on impossible standards in stark contrast to what they grant our foes.

The Longest War

This article behind a pay wall asks if the Arab Spring really failed. This site has it and quotes one author:

The fact that dictators once again sit on the thrones of the Middle East is far from evidence that the [Arab Spring] uprisings failed. Democracy was only one part of the protesters’ demands. The movement was engaged in a generations-long struggle that rejected a regional order that had delivered nothing but corruption, disastrous governance, and economic failure. By that standard, the uprisings have profoundly reshaped every conceivable dimension of Arab politics, including individual attitudes, political systems, ideologies, and international relations.

Too many people assumed it failed because it didn't solve the corruption, governance, and economic problems. I called it a beginning of the process to solve the governance problem because it finally broke the pattern of Arab governance that only recognized secular autocrats or mullah-run governments to consider democracy as an alternative. 

And we have to help reformers to protect ourselves. If it was easy, they wouldn't need our help.

So not the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning?

At the Hot Gates

The Greeks see an opportunity for being a pillar of NATO in the eastern Mediterranean Sea:

Greece's acquisition of the F-35, combined with its existing force of over a hundred F-16 fighters, will make it a bulwark of the alliance’s southern flank. 

As a result of Turkey's fall from favor, Greece is an increasingly appealing candidate to step in. It has one of the largest NATO airbases in Europe and has long hosted the F-35s of other countries. Iraklion Air Base in Crete is now being eyed by the U.S. as a candidate to replace Incirlik. The rest of Europe also appears favorably disposed to Greece. 

This fits in well with my description of NATO's Plan B as Erdogan takes Turkey out of the alliance in practice if not in fact:

Greece seems increasingly like a fallback position if Turkey goes fully bad rather than being temporarily, er ... cranky, and opens the Turkish Straits to the Russian navy.

I don't want to lose Turkey because of Erdogan. But NATO needs a safety net if Turkey loses itself under Erdogan. 

I really hope we don't have any nuclear bombs stored in Incirlik.

Weekend Data Dump

Without American special forces on the ground in Somalia with our local allies, our drone strikes seeking to kill jihadis could actually be counter-productive. People forget that without old fashioned meat sack sources on the ground, the high tech strike systems could just be a means to kill the wrong people for the wrong people.

The Japanese navy is the second largest in Asia and very high quality.

The United States set a record for the number of Navy transits through the Taiwan Strait this year, which China obviously claims as their territorial waters in defiance of international law. Note that the next day Taiwan shadowed a Chinese carrier battle group going through the strait. Taiwan knows who is a threat to it.

Somebody fired rockets at the American embassy in Baghdad, which is defended by C-RAM defenses that were activated. Iran is the usual suspect. I wonder if Democrats will be demanding American retaliation for their favorite pet psycho regime? There does seem to be outrage that Trump has not openly condemned Russia for the apparently successful hacks.

So far, severe allergic reactions to Xi Jinping Flu vaccines have been rare.

No. I do NOT want to lock in behavior during the Xi Jinping Flu lockdowns and will return to normal--indeed more enthusiastic normal--when I can. Screw these proto-fascist control freaks. Tip to Instapundit.

Robot wars in the South China Sea? But beware the peacetime threats to the robots: " That's fine for wartime. But I'd be careful about unmanned ships without serious overwatch simply patrolling the South China Sea in peacetime because I figure the Chinese would try to ram or board an unmanned ship even if treating a manned ship that way is far less likely." Heck, I'm already worried about those threats to our manned ships.

This successful use of UV light isn't against the Xi Jinping Flu virus, but it is promising. Tip to Instapundit.

Victor Hanson thoughts on the incoming Biden administration. We really can't afford to have Biden meet foreign leaders in person. Better to have them suspect he is in cognitive decline than have them confirm it first hand. I was going to write that this will be hard to pull off for four years, but we all know it won't have to be that long. Biden should have a personal protection detail composed of Iranian, Chinese, and Russian nationals. Lord knows they will defend Biden to the death for the sake of their motherlands.

Rwandan troops are already in the Central African Republic under the UN flag. Both Rwanda and Russia have sent forces outside of the UN which could fight as rebels threaten the capital.

We have probably spent too much time trying to find voter fraud or hacking when the real election manipulation was in plain sight. 

More about that leaked database of Chinese Communist Party members inside American companies and universities. Apparently, Chinese Americans have been warning about this for some time. Via Instapundit.

Why can't American moviegoers have nice things? Tip to Instapundit.

USS Georgia, one of our four cruise missile submarines (capable of hauling around 154 of them) went through the Strait of Hormuz in a not too subtle "don't ef with us" signal to Iran. Although I'd think the Biden presidency is a "be smart and wait for the glories of a Reset" signal to Iran that is more likely to keep Iran quiet for now. Iran is our enemy. Why can't Biden and Europeans see that they can't achieve peace for our time with these mullah thugs?

Of course progressives are least likely to take pride in America. And when they do, it is usually only when progressives are running the country. Which means they take pride in progressives and not America. I don't understand how anybody isn't proud of America.

Oh good, despite the fact that Trump was just more vocal than Obama in insisting Germany pay for its defense (the 2% NATO standard was agreed to in the Obama era) the coming Biden administration is letting the Euro-weenies stand up and take pride in being Euro-weenies. Instead, Germany should abandon all guilt about being a defense free rider and focus on (cheaper) cyber warfare expertise. As if Germany would lead any type of counter-attack. Hah! I'm close to being fed up with the Germans.

The Army awarded a contract to update the Abrams tank over the next eight years: "The Abrams M1A2 SEPV3, described as the most reliable of the Abrams family, is a version of the current SEPV2 production model with significant improvements in the areas of survivability, maintainability, and network capability, General Dynamics said." And improved ammunition flexibility.

This is an interesting article on how the Army got ahead of the ISIL small drone threat in Iraq. Kudos. But the drones will get better than civilian conversions we defeated. And swarms will threaten to overwhelm ground-based defenses. Maybe then my aerial drone defenders idea that I advocated in Army magazine will be needed.

It's not that I'm for Confederate statues. It's just that I'm against the preening hypocrites and/or stunningly ignorant fools who bask in the glory of taking them down.

Oh I get it, in Oregon communists can riot, burn, and occupy territory without getting armored vehicles sent to immediately disperse them; but people on the right get the full treatment if they protest and attempt to observe the legislature in session, as is their right. Oregon likes standards so much that they have two of them!

North Korea is planting anti-personnel mines along their border with China to cut down on smuggling (goods in and information out) and to keep the Xi Jinping Flu out. How long before anti-tank mines are placed on the natural invasion routes from China?

I assume the Tyranny Porn aficionados will turn their attention to a daily 2-minute hate against Trump supporters to stoke their baseless obsession when Trump oddly doesn't stage a coup to remain in power.

A reminder that "science" changes on a dime for non-scientific reasons. I was always pro-mask even when we were being told not to use medical-grade masks. It was clear by listening to them closely that they were not saying masks are ineffective but that medical staff needed the scarce items more.

The Chinese are outraged that Australians are oddly treating China like an enemy. Where on Earth would the Australians get the idea that China is their enemy?

I'm not upset that members of Congress are "line cutting" to get the Xi Jinping Flu vaccine first. First of all, 538 shots are not going to deprive anybody lower down a vaccine. That's a drop in the bucket, an it is important for our federal legislative body to be able to work together. Second, can you imagine if they did not get it first and were accused of using the rest of America as test subjects to make sure it is safe for them to get the vaccine later? You'll have better chances to trigger my outrage if higher income Americans in general get the vaccine first, including professional athletes and actors. And I'm going to admit that I'm experiencing whiplash from the left saying that they will never trust the "Trump" vaccine to overnight saying minorities should have vaccination priority. Whoa.

Wow, the Cornell student government is learning all the tricks of despots manipulating a formal democracy to simply do what they want. Tip to Instapundit.

Britain is waiting to see how rough the European Union's punishment will be as Britain finally leaves the EU. Given how eager the EU is to trade with the far smaller Iran, perhaps Britain--which already has nukes--should threaten to bomb Brussels to get a little more respect and cooperation from the EU.

Good luck to Detroit on its lawsuit against BLM. I wish more cities would do this.

Surely you recall how the hopenchange transformed soul crushing unemployment under Bush to "funemployment" opportunity under Obama. With a bonus "new normal" of high unemployment argument. How long before our "dark winter" pandemic that Biden predicted under Trump becomes a Biden era "fundemic" of entertainment?

Biden will respond "in kind" to Russia's SolarWinds hack? Why do we assume we are not now? And what credibility does he have for that statement when the Obama-Biden administration launched its "reset" with Russia in 2009 despite Russia's invasion of Georgia in 2008?

UAV's disguised as birds. It will be interesting to see what countries start shooting birds routinely out of sheer paranoia.

Turkey's parliament extended by 18 months the authorization to have troops in Libya. The eastern Libyans threaten to target them.

The chutzpah is breathtaking. Given Swalwell's record  and high profile over the past four years, his downfall will be well deserved and glorious to behold. Will Pelosi and the media back him despite the last four years of hyperventilating over imaginary Russian collusion?

The Nigeria-Boko Haram fight continues.

It is not hard to think that male progressives like Warnock are simply camouflaging their misogyny. 

The Israelis are sending a submarine capable of carrying nuclear-armed cruise missiles closer to Iran.

Another discussion of Sweden edging toward NATO membership. 

Silly me, I thought the horrible music killed disco. 

Do it! Do it! Do it now! Make sure no games are played with these serious issues next year.

The Air Force will practice deploying to different Pacific islands. Good, hop on those islands before anyone takes them to use against us. Land-based air power counts for controlling the seas despite not being part of a navy.

It's an interesting story, but the deployment of a Navy versus a Coast Guard ship would not be a big deal absent a paranoid angle of wondering what Trump is up to. Give it a rest, people. I guess this was also an outrageous use of Navy assets for non-military tasks.

Uh, cancel the latest Xi Jinping Flu mutation red alert. Tip to Instapundit.

A Brexit trade deal is close, apparently. ... and the deal was concluded ... in principle. So we'll see if the EU tries to make this work or tries to punish Britain through the deal. Johnson seems happy enough. I'm relieved. Although I'll only relax when 2021 arrives. It would be nice if we could come to a trade deal with Britain to help them out.

The pandemic relief bill is not actually only a covid relief bill. It is a combination covid relief bill and "normal" omnibus appropriations bill. So the crap in the spending bill is the usual crap that gets into spending bills. By all means be upset with that enduring problem. But the the relief portion is smaller than the Democrats wanted it to be--stuffed with partisan junk disguised as relief. So I'm not sure why conservatives are complaining about this spending bill. I think opening up the economy rather than spending money is the answer on the covid issue. But the short-term relief spending could be worse--and will be if we wait until next year. And conservatives should be worried that Democrats are celebrating Trump's desire for bigger relief checks. Trump earned conservative support with a number of conservative policies that rejected his liberal history. He certainly earned my support because of the last four years despite my longstanding personal distaste for him. If Trump is returning to his liberal populist instincts, conservatives should be wary of embracing every Trump priority. The spending is just insane.

A tour around Israel: a reminder that a Biden reset with Iran will allow Iran to fund Hamas and Fatah which have been cut off from major Arab funding because the Arabs are sick of the Palestinian attitudes; and Iran is moving the Houthi offensive effort to the Red Sea to attack shipping (perhaps the Israeli sub sent toward Iran is related to this?). One of those mines scored a hit.

Iran is trying to get Democrats worked up over Trump voters with "Enemies of the People" disinformation. Which will come in handy when Democrats want to dismiss Republican complaints about rewarding the mullah-run Iranian regime.

Leaky Russia.

I have as little respect for conservatives spouting off about secession as I did about leftists spouting off about secession after 2016. I think it is all venting. Which is fine. Restoring federalism would be a soft-secession that we should all want to reduce polarization at the national level.

Will Erdogan face a stronger domestic opposition?

The Navy will get a new lightweight torpedo that has defensive capabilities, too. It will be small enough to be useful on unmanned systems, too. I wondered if the offensive light-weight torpedo could be the payload of our anti-ship cruise missiles--one-use drones, really--to focus on weaker anti-torpedo defenses.

The Air Force in Europe is starting to regain its command and control dispersal skills.

What an outrage that Trump isn't waiting until his last day in office to issue pardons! Settle down.

What is the CDC's major malfunction?! If woke non-science has this much influence under Trump, what will it look like under Biden/Harris?!

Have Xi Jinping Flu deaths in America been inflated by 13%? I've long said we are over-counting with a monetary incentive to count deaths with covid19 as deaths because of covid19. I dismissed claims that say the overwhelming majority of deaths are not from the pandemic. So this estimate at least seems reasonable. I imagine this will be corrected the day after Biden is sworn in so it looks like he lowered deaths. And again, wait to compare country or state efforts until this is over and when we have uniform definitions for the purpose of comparison.

I'm really getting annoyed at those meal delivery kits with very well off young people starting off saying how they like to eat "healthy." They have a fantastic kitchen larger than my living area and they decided that they have to buy expensive mail-order food ingredients to eat "healthy." Yeah, nobody could do that before companies started marketing expensive mail-order kits to yuppies. I wish these people would just admit that they like to eat "expensively" in a way that advertises their wealth and moral superiority to everybody who knows them.

Our new head-spinning media standard operating procedures. Had those journalistic standards been in effect the last four years, Trump would have beaten Ham Sandwich (D).

Hong Kong democracy advocate Jimmy Lai was released by Chinese authorities on bail, but with severe restrictions on his ability to make his case to the world. Let's see if he finds a loophole.

One more problem that Russia didn't anticipate from their invasion of Ukraine: Russia's problem with their new nuclear icebreakers. 

Signals. Please. Iran already knows they just need a little patience to get more pallets of cash to pretend not to want nuclear weapons.

Yeah, in the CCP's dreams. Seriously, they dream about it. So the Navy needs to be careful.

Heretic.

It's just a meme so space is limited, of course, unless you want 2-point font at the top:

Israel's war with Iran continues.

Good Lord, how can you (allegedly) murder your own daughter over your religious beliefs?! How feminists aren't the most militant anti-Islamists is beyond me.

How many generations is this commenter removed from farms to be that hilariously ignorant and woke?

Please dear God, be a joke. I'm not sure if I can make it the rest of this year if it isn't a joke.

I'm starting to think that Xi Jinping Flu suppression "science" requires California to have a wall around it--except in the south of course, you racist--to keep anybody from leaving and infecting the rest of us. while they inflict their social justice "science" on themselves. Tips to Instapundit.

Hahaha!

Oh yeah, that's totally normal parenting. If true, of course. Or it could be worse if the parent kept their child completely isolated from everyone.

Bulldozing your way to victory.

That's disturbing, but have you seen their dating pool?!

So "political correctness, after all, functions as the cutting edge of a bourgeoisie culture that prizes civility and gentleness in manners.” That's not the defense of political correctness those authors think it is. The figurative cutting edge in practice is the guillotine that cancels people for bad-think. So far socially and economically. But how long before the Red Guards get more cutting edge literally?

Russia is always promising working weapons so I don't have major worries of Russian promises of having 76 Su-57 stealth fighters by 2028. And the plane (formerly known as the T-50) isn't 360-degree stealthy, recall.

Couldn't happen to a nicer proto-empire.

"Nearly 60 percent of the country thinks poorly of Progressive darling Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez and 75 percent want nothing to do with the socialism she preaches." That's a pretty good result given that a pretty face is making the case for socialism. Although I'd be happier if it was all people and not just likely voters.Although maybe I'm assuming wrongly that all people would be more favorable to both. I guess I'll just be happy that people who vote reject both. Never forget the failure of socialism as this Soviet-era joke highlights: A man orders a car and is informed that the car will be available in two years. The man, unfazed, asks whether it will be there in the morning or the afternoon. The man taking the order is stunned and asks how it could possibly matter whether the car that will be available in two years will be there in the afternoon or morning! The man replies that he has a washing machine repairman coming in the afternoon. That is socialism.

Letting the Xi Jinping Flu do Lukashenko's dirty work for him.

Remember my view: It isn't a disproportionate response if Israel's enemies keep trying to kill Israelis.

So in regard to fighting the Xi Jinping Flu, exactly what version of "science" are we supposed to follow? Tip to Instapundit.

I forget things. When I wrote about an off-shore British strategy I forgot I noted that shift earlier in the year. I'm fairly consistent, at least.

For anyone eager for a reckoning on the future direction of America by means of violence if necessary, I recommend a look at post-World War II Europe, which I note in this post. Violence destroys a lot if you want a decisive decision. Let's use evolution rather than revolution to determine our direction.

Japan's Aegis Ashore drama.

Bending the knee and defending the faith.

Iran cuts off natural gas exports to Iraq over unpaid bills, amidst American pressure to end Iraqi reliance on those energy imports.

What fresh Hell is this? Best and brightest, indeed. Tip to Instapundit.

The horror. The horror ... . Via Instapundit.

Let's not think there isn't a bright side to the pandemic lock downs: "During the quarter ending in September, when the overall unemployment rate averaged 8.5 percent, 52 percent of actors, 55 percent of dancers and 27 percent of musicians were out of work, according to the National Endowment for the Arts." Hey, they voted for the people ordering the lock downs. Let's just hope it is 100% for mimes. Again, Instapundit.

Always Check the Definitions Section

So who is inept and who is nuanced?

 The Germans compare pandemic futures in America and Europe: 

The contrast is unmistakable. On the one hand, there is the supposedly incompetent Trump administration, which will provide vaccines to 20 million Americans in the next two to three weeks alone. By the end of March, the plan is for around 100 million Americans to have received the two vaccine injections they need.

On the other hand, there is the supposedly well-prepared Europeans, who continue to have to wait for a vaccine that was developed in Germany. And who still don’t know exactly how much of the vaccine they will be getting in the coming months." 

I guess the template for coverage has been wrong for nine months. But no worries, we'll probably out-produce our estimates and be able to help out in Europe. 

When you check the definitions section, I'm sure you'll find "incompetent" defined as "not a Democrat."

And pity this nuance didn't make it into the news prior to our presidential election.

Merry Christmas

Merry Christmas! I think I'll take tomorrow off blogging. I don't know if I've done that. 

Quite possibly that could have happened in 2002 when I first started blogging. Or maybe I've done this a lot over the years and just don't remember. I know I've blogged on things I forgot I blogged on earlier, and found my reasoning and conclusion were virtually identical.

I hope you are celebrating as well as you can under the circumstances. The joy of the season should be embraced in difficult times as best you can to salvage good from the bad. I put up my decorations and lights the day after Thanksgiving as God and tradition demand.

Nor will the pandemic stop my new Die Hard Christmas tradition.

This year it will be a virtual celebration.

I also did not let the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic drag me down and fail to send out Christmas cards this year, figuring that day drinking is an acceptable coping mechanism.

Opposable thumbs and mindless adherence to tradition are what separate us from the beasts, after all.

And if your work place doesn't allow you to cite even a heavily secularized Christian holiday, wish people a Merry C.H.R.I.S.T.M.A.S. instead.

We will get through this. I've adapted to the pandemic screwing up monthly game night. I had hoped against hope that it wouldn't last this long, but we persist. After it is over it will be back and expanded with a retro spinoff.

By all means, let your little ones track Santa via the NORAD site.

Signs of Victory in the Long War

Behind the shield of Western military action in the war on terror, we've seen the beginning of progress in the Arab world to resolve their civil war to defeat Islamist jihadis that could end the supply of jihadis by marginalizing Islamist thought. Europe, too, may be trying to turn off their smaller jihadi-producing machine.

Europeans are finally starting to realize that multiculturalism has been weaponized by Islamists to create jihadis inside Europe:

Over the last few years more European governments have come to realize that integration of their recent Moslem migrants into the local culture is an essential process for preventing Islamic terrorism. That means some nations are making it mandatory to learn the local language and customs. Another lesson learned is the importance of preventing unintegrated Moslem migrants from congregating in Moslem majority neighborhoods. That enables radical Islamic clerics to establish mosques where all the members are dedicated to, or supportive of Islamic terrorism as a means of “defending Islam.”

France is not alone in its sudden resolve to fight that radicalization, apparently. And in the rest of the post that I quoted, you can see hope from America's experience that the European effort is not futile.

The Long War might actually end with Western and moderate (and modernized) Moslem victory rather than peter out from jihadi exhaustion, large body counts of more conveniently vulnerable non-Islamist or insufficiently Islamist Moslems at the hands of jihadis, and battlefield losses--only to reignite in a generation or two, this time with nuclear weapons in the jihadi arsenal.

Baby, It's Broke Outside

A New York congressman is begging Goldman Sachs not to leave New York City for Florida: 

Rep. Thomas Suozzi’s message to the (likely) soon-to-be departing financial firm Goldman Sachs had the sound of an 80s love ballad: don’t go, baby.

“Please don’t leave us,” the New York congressman said on CNBC following news that the multibillion-dollar investment bank is likely to bolt New York City for Florida. “We’re in a desperate time in New York right now. We need you. You’re important to us. We want you to stay.”

There really is a song for this. But an older one that has attracted a Twitter cancel mob is more appropriate.

Baby, It's Broke Outside

[Verse 1: Goldman Sachs & Rep. Suozzi]
I really can't stay (But, baby, it's broke outside)
I've got to get away (But, baby, it's broke outside)
This city has been (Been hoping that you'd drop in)
So like a heist (I'll hold your cash, it's just so nice)
My shareholders start to worry (Tax cow, what's your hurry?)
My CEO's pacing the floor (Listen to the protesters roar)
So, city, I'd better scurry (Tax cow, please don't hurry)
But maybe just a half a riot more (Hire some guards at your door)
The clients might think (Baby, it's bad down there)
Say, what's with this fee? (No Broadway to find down there)
I wish I knew how (Your revenue's like starlight now)
To break this Hell (I'll take your cash, your mayor looks swell)
I ought to say, "No safety at all" (Mind if I squeeze you harder?)
At least I'm gonna say that I cried (What's the sense of hurtin' my budget?)

[Chorus: Goldman Sachs, Rep. Suozzi & Both]
I really can't stay
(Oh, baby, don't pull out)
Baby, it's broke outside

[Verse 2: Goldman Sachs & Rep. Suozzi]
I simply must go (But, baby, it's broke outside)
The answer is no (But, baby, it's broke outside)
Your arson has been (How lucky FDNY dropped in)
So nice and woke (Look out to sea at the storms)
My CFO is suspicious (Gosh your profits look delicious)
My brokers will be there at the door (knaves upon the five-borough shore)
The SEC's mind is vicious (Gosh your profits are delicious)
But maybe just a tax credit more (Never such a deficit before)
I've gotta get out (But, baby, you'd burn down there)
Say, extend me a credit (It's just killer bees down there)
I've already been banned (I thrill when you fill my coffers)
But don't you see? (How can you do this thing to me?)
There's bound to be riots tomorrow (Think of my budgetary sorrow)
At least there will be plenty of space (If you find a Florida Man and die) 

Baby it's broke outside. The company needs to run before New York legislates an exit tax.

Thanks to these people for the original lyrics.

Victory in the Middle East, With a Catch

Withdrawing most of our troops from the Middle East isn't a retreat. America can afford to reduce troop strength if we don't just ignore the region and hope for the best.

I'm fine with the terminology of this piece on potential American basing options to avoid a mass Iranian missile barrage:

The recent assassination of Iranian physicist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh may not have been an American-led operation, but it nonetheless raised the risk of reprisal attacks, quite possibly targeting U.S. bases. The vulnerability of American military bases in the Middle East to missile attack is not new, but growing Iranian capabilities make U.S. assets deployed in the region more vulnerable. In recognition of this threat, a rethink of U.S. basing architecture is needed.

What I am most interested in is the reminder that prior to the Iran-Iraq War when we added force to protect oil exports, America's military presence in the Persian Gulf region was minimal.

Our large presence, especially since 1990, is the exception and reducing it does not mean abandoning the region:

So as time went on, the need for American military power in the region went up. Our peak commitments in Iraq reached about 180,000 while in Afghanistan it reached 100,000.

And don't forget that the collapse of the Soviet Union and the still-future Chinese military rise allowed America to commit force to the region without risking higher priority theaters.

Still, we eventually beat this Iran/al Qaeda effort in Iraq. And even our surge in Afghanistan left Afghan forces that could carry on the fight. In Iraq War 2.0 against ISIL and in current Afghanistan, we can see that we don't need 100,000+ troops in direct combat. Locals with our support and special forces can carry on the day-to-day fighting.

So it is possible for America to reduce our combat role and rely on local allies and on our proven ability to rapidly deploy forces if they are needed. The problem is that in the visuals the world has gotten used to seeing a lot of American forces in combat as a concrete demonstration of our commitment.

But a reduction in our military power doesn't mean our commitment is lower. It means the need for our military power in the region to back our commitment is going down after spiking from about 1973 to 2009 (although the surges in Afghanistan extended that to 2011 or so). Eventually locals will get used to our lower footprint and lower level of direct combat without thinking it means less commitment.

A number of events prompted the dispatch of American troops to watch and fight enemies, including the fall of the Shah of Iran who America armed to be our local "policeman" to keep the Gulf quiet. Replacing that Iran with the mullah-run "Death to America!" Iran was a major flip. 

Our wars and diplomatic efforts since then allow America to reduce troop strength and lower our military actions since the peak need for American troops. 

This draw down of troops is a sign of potential victory as long as we don't just walk away and hope for the best. And Iran is currently the biggest problem in the region that could undermine all that we've achieved (and note I was wrong to give Obama the benefit of the doubt on Iran policy, which as I address in this more recent post is a mess of failed assumptions and process if the goal is to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons).

My only worry is that we assume the relative stability that allows our draw down wasn't achieved by the troops we think we don't need. Our military power and activity can't go to zero any time soon unless we want to risk the relative stability we have achieved. Withdraw--but verify the freedom to do that.

Limited Objective for Limited War

This CCP objective admits that China is not on the verge of military superiority over America:

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army may have set a new goal of ensuring military power equivalent to that of U.S. forces in Asia’s western Pacific region by 2027, sources close to the matter have said.

That's a tilted comparison. The entire PLA versus just American forces in the western Pacific.

I've long said that America has to avoid excessive attrition in the opening stages of a Chinese surprise offensive in the western Pacific until America can gather its forces from around the globe to counter-attack.

And the Chinese objective doesn't include friends and allies in the region--which America has a lot of while China has (if you squint in a dark room) three. And probably zero if you count those who'd be willing to fight America at China's side. 

Not that the Chinese objective is meaningless. America needs to be strong enough to keep America's allies in the western Pacific aligned with America rather than peeling away out of fear of China.

If China wages war on America, it needs to win quickly and end the war before America and our allies can gather forces to fight back. And in regard to Taiwan, China just needs to defeat Taiwan while deterring an America that needs time to gather sufficient forces to defeat China. That's what their area denial/anti-access strategy is intended to provide China.

Which is why for the sake of deterrence I want the Army to have a role in defending Taiwan, as I argued in Military Review.

China has grander goals for mid-century. But can they achieve that scary goal? I guess I'm not the biggest proponent of China's purported genius for long-range planning.

In the short run, is a short, victorious, and glorious Chinese war scenario likely?

Funding the NATO Option

Sweden decided to dramatically increase their defense spending to re-arm in the face of Russian threats:

The plan will see the armed forces grow from the current 55,000 positions to 90,000 by 2030. Several disbanded regiments will be reestablished and the number of conscripts will increase to 8,000 annually, which is a doubling compared with 2019. The Navy will receive new equipment, including a fifth submarine, and upgrades in armaments.

I've mentioned this spending decision a couple months ago. And more recently wrote:

Sweden is reaching out to Finland for military cooperation and is now in favor of considering the "NATO option" if it would help Sweden's security.  Good. But Sweden should remember that NATO has to accept their application to join.

Russia is weak enough compared to the USSR that small bordering states are motivated by Russian hostility to arm up rather than submit to Moscow's domination. 

Which will make them a prize for NATO to get rather than being a burden.

Let's Pretend in the Far East

Japan and America are alarmed at Russia's military build up in the Far East. I think China is the real target.

In theory this should be a worry for America and Japan:

Russia caused a major stir earlier this month when it deployed one of its most advanced air defense systems, the S-300V4, on a disputed northern island claimed by Japan.

This was no isolated incident: For several years now, Moscow has been on a mission to strengthen its military presence in Northeast Asia. To counter the U.S., Russia has upgraded its weaponry in its Far East, commissioned new ships for its Pacific Fleet, and significantly expanded military cooperation with China.

If Russia is so worried about America and NATO, why would Russia move forces away from the heart of European Russia? Doesn't preparing for a virtually non-existent American-Japanese threat to the Russian Far East make Russia's western border--which the Russians bizzarely claim is under threat from NATO--easier to overrun?

But I don't think the Russian build up that I've mentioned here, here, here, and here, is a real problem for America and Japan. Russia just can't admit it.

And I totally disagree with the idea from the article that adding Russian naval and air defense forces to the Far East means Russia can't possibly anticipate using them against China.

Useful Idiots on a Grand Scale

The Russians are assholes and Americans are sadly eager to cooperate:

Between the FBI’s deception of the surveillance court and Mueller’s weaponization of FARA laws, the federal government’s most powerful institutions turned against an elected president to discredit him, as a “check on his power,” to use Weissmann’s phrase. The dynamic of a rage-filled lying president and a dogged national-security bureaucracy set on taking him down has advanced Russia’s strategic goal of tearing our republic apart. Both sides should acknowledge their guilt as we move past a president who was both framed and guilty.[*]

The Russians played an epic supporting role in this tragedy.

We've long known the Russians are assholes. It isn't new. When the Chinese finally put Russia's nuts in a vise over Russia's 19th century conquests of Chinese territory, it will be both horrifying and glorious. 

But it is our fault that we magnify Russia's assholery to levels the Russians can only marvel at enjoying. Nobody comes out looking good over the last 4-1/2 years, including Trump's 2018 Helsinki performance. That momentarily surpassed my anger reflex over the sudden faux 2016 Democratic outrage over Russia. We'll see if that outrage can survive the defeat of Trump or whether a smiling Original Reset 2.0 at the expense of allies will beckon. 

But the behavior of our permanent bureaucracy by taking sides--hard--in the partisan fight has brought shame to our government. The use of the dormant Foreign Agents Registration Act to target Trump people was shameful. The Democrats acted shamefully, but they are partisans driven mad by Trump. The same with the media. 

But the bureaucracy is supposed to act for the country regardless of who they think should have won. That ideal is bent routinely, but with Trump too many did not even try to pretend to be civil servants rather than partisans with job security. And they got away with it. I could not ever imagine acting that way when I was a nonpartisan staff of the state legislature. 

In the end, our own institutions discredited American democracy and governance far more successfully than any Russian disinformation campaign could have. As I wise man once said, we have met the enemy. And they is us.

*"Guilty" of being the Trump we've long known and not of any crimes, of course. So that word usage is unfortunate. And Trump had reason to have even more rage than he unfortunately started with. But do read it all.

I have a long history of not liking Trump. As I've said, I long thought of him as a liberal Democrat. But the absolute insanity and criminality of the 24/7 turn-it-to-11 Resistance that amplified Russia's effort to damage America also pushed Trump to the right; and in the face of the relentless insane opposition raised my opinion of Trump a great deal over the odious alternative. The relentless Resistance pushed me to defend Trump out of a sense of fairness even aside from pure policy considerations (which is a mostly positive but mixed bag as far as I'm concerned--and definitely superior to what Clinton would have provided).

Weekend Data Dump

The Saudi coalition continues to grind away at Iran-supported Houthi control in Yemen, while the Saudi air defenses have gotten better at stopping missiles and drones. So the Iranians are going back to hitting ships in the Red Sea. This is one more problem that will be made worse if Biden tries a Reset 2.0 with Iran's mullah regime.

I have no doubt that as they long have, foreigners interfered in the 2020 election. Just as I have no doubt that they--including the Russians--interfered in 2016. The question is whether they had any effect. The bigger question is whether they actually hacked election results or committed fraud. In 2016 there was no indication of those more important questions. I suspect the same is true today.

Democrats want to steal from the blue collar class and give that money to the children of the upper classes. And it angers beyond reason people like me who borrowed little for college and saved money for my children's college rather than blow the money on vacations and stuff while pleading poverty "for the children." To Hell with these people. If Democrats truly want to help poor people, cancel some of the debt of people who never finished a degree. Let the people who got MAs in victims studies enjoy their loan payments. Tip to Instapundit.

I've long recognized that some people are their own worst enemy. Victimhood is a personality trait. Via Instapundit.

And you won't get the Xi Jinping Flu vaccine for the sake of your country?!

The covid19 panic: "So far covid19 has caused deaths per million population in the U.S. similar to the annual flu did in 1957-58 and 1968-69. " I'm skeptical that China will benefit from the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic given the panic that has overtaken the world over this and the harm Western countries have inflicted on themselves to fight it.

In thirty years, a new generation of woke scolds will discover and outraged that in the late 20th and early 21st centuries, racists ethnically cleansed Native American symbols and names from our country. And they will be right.

Basically Germany can look forward to minimal pressure from the Biden administration to be a real NATO partner. Why people complicate things is beyond me. And I'm going to protest that "the traditional trans-Atlantic alliance" rest on NATO and not the European Union monstrosity.

The Navy's latest version of the solid Burke destroyer has a more powerful radar that will allow for expanded capabilities. But does it have all the electricity it needs for all the fancy stuff that will come on line to exploit that radar?

Are Chinese border troops in Tibet using unpowered exoskeletons?

The Navy let China know that America will eventually deploy unmanned systems in the South China Sea to battle the Chinese fleet. That's fine for wartime. But I'd be careful about unmanned ships without serious overwatch simply patrolling the South China Sea in peacetime because I figure the Chinese would try to ram or board an unmanned ship even if treating a manned ship that way is far less likely.

The question of whether the Navy is falling behind the PLAN is interesting. But I prefer to balance this as a question of our entire military versus their entire military. Purple, don't you know? Plus, you have to consider that most of the American fleet is not in the western Pacific while most of the PLAN is in or adjacent to China. And America has allies with powerful naval and air power. My view is that the Chinese have an initial edge in a war because they set the timing which allows them to maximize their fleet operations against a fraction of the American navy. Then America mobilizes and deploys while allies activate as well. China has a dilemma of whether to also target American allies in the opening days of war and guarantee these allies fight with America very quickly or gamble on allies staying out of the fight if left alone--but being stronger if they join the fight.

If European NATO states on the Mediterranean Sea can't manage to keep that body of water secure, what good is NATO? Remember, America has a phantom fleet there.

Republicans failed to prove election fraud sufficient to change the election despite early claims that it would be forthcoming. I'm disappointed in the claim-proof gulf. The gulf is smaller in distance and duration than the claims of proof for Russia-Trump 2016 collusion, but it is still a fatal gulf. So if Republicans spend four years stridently claiming that the prior election was invalid I think Republicans can safely say they learned it by watching Democrats:

Mullah-run Iran doesn't just kidnap foreigners to hold them for ransom. Sometimes the mullahs capture foreigners to kill them.

Well, duh: "Iran would return to compliance with the nuclear deal within an hour of the US doing so, its president said[.]" The deal was designed to be a shield for Iran to get nuclear weapons.

The Royal Navy will protect the Channel from the European Union. Fishing-wise, of course. For now.

I hope the Durham probe into the Russia collusion cabal gets a lot of work done in the next month.

Writing more checks to people who don't need them to cope with the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic--like me--really doesn't make sense now. And from the point of view of elected officials it doesn't make sense because the next election is too far away for that gift to be remembered.

Sometimes I think the main reason for using the legal system to battle the Biden win because it may have been helped by ample opportunities for fraud and engineered error--magnified by ridiculous Orange Hitler propaganda--is to inspire the troops for future battles to contain the damage the Biden administration can do. The current perfectly lawful under our Constitution legal system battles--like this one on alternate Electors--are long-shots and highly unlikely to work. But you can't turn enthusiasm off and on like a switch. But as I noted above, Republicans learned that by watching the Democrats. Tips to Instapundit.

Japan's pandemic numbers aren't that high--but they are setting records.

For Rep. Swalwell, his dalliance with Fang could have been worse--waaay worse.

The mixed bag of actors filling the partial vacuum created by America's troop reduction in Afghanistan. This includes an Iran alternative to Pakistan for overland lines of supply. Which while nice when you consider the problem of jihadi-friendly Pakistan, is problematic while the mullahs run Iran.

Biden has gotten his Electoral College votes. He is officially the president-elect. Republicans failed to prove election-changing fraud. That may be because of the short time to prove it. But here we are. There are levers of power apart from the presidency. This is still a republic with substantial powers away from the center and outside of government. Republicans need to organize them to resist the incoming administration. And part of the resistance is reforming voting to remove the avenues for cheating and engineered error (error that can be "fixed" in a partisan manner with no oversight). Work the problem. Beginning with the Georgia runoffs for the Senate. Working the problem is harder without the Senate. Leave the futile and stupid gestures to the other side:

The European Union wants their version of the X-37B. You may recall the X-37B, which I've posted on for over a decade now.

China exploits India's corrupt and inefficient weapons manufacturing industry for information war operations. But making stuff up seems potentially counter-productive to me.

Trump has been carrying out a lot of freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea to deny Chinese claims of sovereignty over the vast majority of that body of water. Will Biden return to the Obama era phony FONOPs that I began to suspect were taking place?

Erdogan pissed off the Iranians when he spiked the football over his support for Azerbaijan in the recent war with Armenia by referencing Iran's large Azeri minority. Making friends and influencing people is not Erdogan's strong suit. He's angered America, Israel, European NATO states, the EU, Russia, Armenia, Arabs, Kurds, and now Iran. Amazing. 

Cyber-war means that Army bases in the continental United States are no longer secure bastions immune to attack. And that vulnerability extends to civilian companies providing goods and services to the bases. I hope the Navy doesn't think our CONUS ports and airfields are immune to actual kinetic attacks from the sea.

Well this thought from a three-star Air Force general is just silly. Or does the Air Force think it can operate its air bases without the Army between them and enemy ground troops? And it is a dangerous issue for the Air Force to raise. Does he really think the Army wouldn't jump at the chance to take the job and money that the Air Force gets for Army close air support and put it in-house as it was before the Air Force was promoted from Army control after World War II?

Why the newly upgraded anti-ship Tomahawk is still a viable weapon despite its age and low speed.

When the Russians (in their Soviet era) were on the Elbe River, a missile launch false alarm like this would have been very dangerous. Now? Not so much, I think.

I think the people giving credit to the European Union for trade and stability benefits are mistakenly crediting the EU for benefits that the European Economic Community provided.

If I'm ever asked to state my pronouns, they will be "ho, hum, huh?" Peak Stupid will cross the boundary into space at the pace we are raising it.

The United States has sanctioned a pro-Iran subversive group in Bahrain.

So ... what then? A wood-burning aircraft? I miss the days when a military was expected to defeat enemies.

The former senior intelligence officials misled Americans about the Biden "laptop" corruption scandal. It was clear at the time that they were lying by wording ("has all the hallmarks of") that the media willfully interpreted in a way friendly to Biden--that Russia did it. Basically the intel people said that if the Russians did it, it might look like this. Which isn't the same as saying Russia did it. One could say it had the hallmarks of any other country's intelligence outfit--or even that it had the hallmarks of the truth.

I suppose it is barely possible that President Elect Biden won't be sworn in as president if evidence of fraud is strong enough to shame even the Pelosi-run House into declining to accept the formal Electoral College vote. Long shot on that kind of evidence and for Pelosi doing the right thing. Absent that, it's time to work the problem of containing Biden. And that includes winning control of the Senate next month. Don't let pursuit of the unlikely perfect wreck achievement of the good within reach.

I agree. I was totally against the militarization of police until the police had to face sustained rioting this year.

I know Trump and his most loyal backers are slamming Senator McConnell for urging Republicans to accept the validity of Biden's election (which isn't, obviously, the same as supporting Biden's agenda). But perhaps McConnell is worried that Republicans might not hold the Senate next year and needs open lines of communication to prevent the Democrats from killing the filibuster if they run the Senate. Heck, there might even be a secret deal. Sheer speculation. But sometimes you have to fall back and preserve power rather than hold the line at all costs and risk crippling losses in order to win the war. And Trump had five weeks to produce something more substantial than he did. Fewer than 50,000 votes shifted would have made Trump the winner. But he did not provide the proof to shift those votes. It was a short time frame, to be sure. But he got that time with Republican support despite Democratic/media hysteria. And really, the most effective voting interference might have been the relentless media Orange Hitler propaganda over the last four years that swayed too many people to vote for Ham Sandwich (D) for president. I just hope we haven't gotten what we deserve--good and hard.

Hillary Clinton started the BS Trump-Russia collusion hoax that polarized our country the last four years. And the Obama administration was worried that the Russians were manipulating the Clinton campaign to do this! So I don't want to hear a damn thing about how Trump supporters haven't accepted Biden as the president yet--when he isn't even the president yet. And as long as we're going back in time, you're damned right Clinton should have served time for her private email system that evaded government security and record retention rules and practices. Is our only hope for some justice over the last 4-1/2 years more declassification?

I assume I am low on the list for the Xi Jinping Flu vaccine. For yucks I tried a covid19 risk calculator I found online. I have no idea how credible it is. So I'm not linking to it. But online searching at a basic level is not hard. Over the next year under weak mitigation measures and no lockdown conditions, I have under a 4% chance of being hospitalized and a 0.08% chance of dying. I'll still take the vaccine when available, of course. For the team. And I assume that the odds are calculated without considering that the virus will be defeated in less than a year. My odds are lower than calculated both because of mitigation efforts I take regardless of rules and because the odds don't need to be calculated over a year.

Iran pretends to design tanks, with bonus material on Russian tank models.

Not to be rude--and, like my stand against bowing to royalty, not like I'll have the chance--but I'd call Jill Biden "Elliot" before I call her "doctor." And honestly, I mistakenly had a higher opinion of her degree until I heard more about what it is and her path to it, in particular. The Streisand Effect Exposure Corollary?

Barring extraordinary revelations and evidence, Biden will be inaugurated. Which is a shame. But violence (by a few, I'll add; and not yet anywhere near the left-wing violence we've experienced this year, and indeed for the last four years off and on) is not the proper response to the possibility that fraud is the cause of Biden's win. Without clear proof rather than data analysis of odd outcomes or sworn testimony of what people believe happened, we have to go forward. As I mentioned, if proof does come up in the future, I imagine impeachment is the legal measure to correct the crime. Which doesn't help Trump. But justice is not perfect. And America should always have gratitude to Trump not only for many policies and judicial appointments, but for denying Hillary Clinton the presidency. He'll always have that credit. And honestly, Biden's victory just rubs Clinton's nose in her 2016 failure. She'll always know that Joe (Ham Sandwich (D)) Biden managed to do what she could not. That's gonna leave a mark. Invest your money in boxed wine stocks now.

California wants to release rapists and murderers from prison because of the pandemic? Huh? I thought California was locking up the non-criminals because of the pandemic? Does California hate criminals so much that it would release criminals to what is supposed to be a death sentence outside? I salute the sheriff for his compassionate decision not to effectively kill those convicts by releasing them. And Californians are haters too. They need to get with the program. It is way better to be raped or killed than to risk even one prisoner's life to the low odds of getting or dying from the virus. Haters.

"Abe Lincoln Canceled in San Fran. School Because Being Murdered by a Democrat for Freeing Slaves Doesn't Show He Cared Enough About Black Lives". That makes sense this year.

It's too soon to worry. But how many times have we heard that line in some doomsday plague movie? Maybe 2021 is telling 2020 "Hold my beer."

Oh please! Like a gay Republican counts!

The year 2020 isn't done effing with East Africa. 

Germany's Xi Jinping Flu deaths hit a record high.

Attention: Dispatch from Bizarro America! 

Look, the non-wealthy nations had a choice when the Chinese Communist Party unleashed the pandemic on the world: Be further down the line for getting the Xi Jinping Flu vaccine after the wealthy countries that design and produce it use it on their own people; or don't get any at all by preventing the wealthy countries from designing and producing the vaccine. So just stop this self-flagellating nonsense. Anybody that upset in a wealthy country can simply refuse to get the vaccine until the last herder in northern Chad get it, if it makes them feel morally superior.

I guess a small enough country can afford to hide in the basement until someone else solves the pandemic. 

Oh for crying out loud, how is the Navy going to match Chinese numbers when some of our LCS may have a basic propulsion system flaw? Maybe the new unarmed LAW can just tow them around for limited protection capabilities and just beach the LCS to protect the Marines once ashore.

To be fair, Iran's hostility toward America didn't end with Obama.

The Xi Jinping Flu has delayed BAE's delivery of prototype light tanks (Mobile Protected Firepower). I'm not sure whether to be happy or sad at this. Does the delay stall the acquisition of the Future Burned Out Hulk or delay the testing that would confirm that it is a ridiculous weapon system to acquire?

Arab states can no longer indulge in the luxury policy of hostility to Israel when America might not defend Arab states from the real threat Iran. Will Biden reverse the peace progress between Israel and the Arab world in order to re-engage our four-decade enemy mullah-run Iran?

I do not envy the French for their efforts to stabilize Mali. Related thoughts on French practice.

Is China really driving forward at top speed after shrugging off the pandemic that started there? Or are Westerners falling for Chinese Communist Party propaganda in the face of indicators that all is not well in China? And more broadly, has China's economy already gone bust? I've been waiting for peak China for a while rather than thinking China's rise is a straight-line vector to global domination. 

Seriously, always check the definitions section--especially when it comes to the Xi Jinping Flu. 

The Army has a new heavy scissor bridge.

Walk away from Turkey to heal the relationship?  I think it is certainly time for a break in the relationship.

Ethiopia is sinking deeper into sectarian conflict. If Egypt had a hand in this in order to pressure Ethiopia on the Nile River GERD dam project, bravo. Not that I'm in favor of the ethnic conflict. But that's pressure of the first order for containing what Egypt sees as a potential existential threat--but only if Egypt could help turn it off if Ethiopia agrees to a deal on the dam. The article wonders if Ethiopia is Africa's Yugoslavia. Well, it is an empire divided by ethnic and religious groupings, and sometimes empires fragment along ethnic lines.

Lukashenko is hanging on to power in Belarus while the opposition is held in check with an uncertain ability to sustain opposition. I mentioned this situation a couple weeks ago. Unless Lukashenko's security forces lose heart and switch sides en masse, including a good chunk of senior leadership, the opposition isn't in a position to win even if Russia doesn't send in troops to back Lukashenko.

Putin's defense against the charge of poisoning opposition figure Navalny is that if Russia tried to kill Navalny he would be dead? Does he really want to stick with the line that Russia is really good at quietly killing dissidents?

Just because Trump will be out of office doesn't mean Twitter won't be a presidential election and governing tool. We had advances to radio, broadcast television, cable TV, YouTube shows, and now Twitter and other social media. Nobody goes backwards. I assume the next presidential election has video game advertising. Or did I miss that this year?

My guess is that he would have targeted a Los Angeles skyscraper. 

I'm losing my sympathy for the people of Portland who clearly don't mind their city being bullied by communist thugs. Enjoy your people's paradise, you morons. Seriously, what is their major malfunction? To be clear, I don't really think napalm is the answer.

Iraq's economy and budget are under pressure. Let's hope Iran remains in worse shape so it can't exploit those problems.

One can only hope that the media's pre-election suppression of the Hunter Biden "laptop" corruption story will finally wash away the media's credibility. The media has worked hard for many decades to throw away the trust the American people had in the industry. When the media ups their game to overtly take sides the way it has over the last twelve years, it should be recognized.

The Marines need to address air defense and coping with enemy air attacks. And yeah, the threat of small, armed drones is a real danger, as I addressed in Army magazine.

Giving Swalwell a pass on his relationship with a Chinese spy because he personally didn't tell her anything classified ignores the possibility that she gained information just by having access to him. Did he have no files she could photograph? Did she meet someone through him more vulnerable to espionage? Did she find out about any meetings that other Chinese spies could gain access to in order to get classified information? Even if she was just one of a "thousand grains of sand" Swalwell might have been very useful to China. The same goes for Senator Feinstein's driver/spy, of course. There are no repercussions and little media interest in these Chinese intrusions. Yet somehow it was a good idea to tear our country apart looking for fabricated Trump-Russia election collusion for three years.

North Korea's newest coastal defense missile. 

The Su-34 saves Russia's light bomber capability.

Rather than being outraged at a president's actual war on reporters, the media was honored to be punished for failure to serve The One properly. Only returning the anger that reporters demonstrated against Trump counted as a president's war on the media, I guess. Via Instapundit.

The Chinese are expanding base capabilities on their large Hainan Island. This is hardly shocking.

The Navy, Marines, and Coast Guard are looking to resist "gray-zone" Chinese pressure and slow conquest against nearby countries.

Exposing Russian covert operations.

I still don't understand how people who warn about Islamist ideology that generates jihadis can be accused of being "Islamophobic." Aren't the people who cannot see the difference between the jihadi terror-friendly Islamists and the bulk of Moslems the real haters?

I blame Trump and all those anti-science Deplorables who refuse to wear masks or socially distance for the surge of Xi Jinping Flu cases. 

On-demand high-resolution satellite photograph service is coming online. The article mistakenly stated the satellite could see into buildings until corrected. But how long before that opacity is defeated? This is hastening the day of no privacy as I noted here and here concerning the science fiction book The Light of Other Days. It explored human reaction to the lack of any personal privacy. Science fiction is becoming science fact faster than I'd like in this area. And as a private entity asset, it also has implications for hastening the day of private military operations.

I've been wondering whether Senator Manchin is Plan B for Republicans to control the Senate if the Democrats win both Georgia Senator runoff elections. I'm obviously not the first to think of that.

Let's get the Twitter Red Guards on the case of canceling this misogynist who is on record mocking Jill Biden's academic achievement. Sure, he'll say he doesn't remember it--and he may be right--but the facts are clear. Buh bye hater.

Japan is moving beyond missile defense to shoot down enemy nukes to "deterrence" with long-range missiles able to reach potential attackers. Precision conventional warheads can deter a bit, given that prior to precision small nuclear warheads were required for some targets. But this seems like a signal that Japan could eventually go nuclear if the threats continue to expand. Also, Japan will build its own stealth fighter to supplement F-35s.

Is it just me? Or does it annoy others that there are people who make a living being an online "influencer."

The World Court will take up the issue of the Venezuela-Guyana border. Venezuela doesn't want this intervention. I have to wonder if Maduro would order an invasion if the court rules for Guyana. While Venezuela's military is in shambles, Guyana has almost no military and has a tiny population. Would Brazil intervene to help Guyana?

The kidnapped school boys in Nigeria were released. Boko Haram may or may not have been behind the mass kidnapping because lots of violence-prone groups plague Nigeria. The military may well be one of those, practically speaking.

Iran is building at its underground nuclear facility at Fordow. But somehow we are to believe that Iran is determined to build nukes even in the face of air attacks only because America won't agree to abide by the horrible Iran nuclear deal that in theory delays Iranian nukes for a decade or so and then frees Iran of all international nuclear scrutiny.

To be fair, I'm not sure how much better we are doing on freedom of speech than Britain even though America has a written Constitution with enumerated civil rights. Tip to Instapundit.

From the damned if you do and damned if you don't files: "With Trump silent, reprisals for [Russian] hacks may fall to Biden[.]" One, we don't know that Trump didn't authorize quiet retaliation. And two, if Trump was loudly or even just visibly striking back, tell me that the exact same critics would be claiming that Trump was trying to start a war to justify nullifying the election and remaining in power. And three, was it as bad as so many are now saying given we knew about this in the spring? And remember, the Obama-Biden administration ignored Russia's August 2008 invasion of Georgia when it crafted its 2009 "Reset" initiative.

Sweden is experiencing a big rise in Xi Jinping Flu cases and deaths after what seemed like a relatively low level by the summer despite remaining largely open. Apparently Sweden failed to quarantine people coming in who were exposed to the virus. Heck, it may be that no strategy could have stopped the virus prior to herd immunity, whether by immunization or spread. I'd avoid real comparisons until this is over and we can establish uniform definitions for the purpose of comparing countries. But the early Swedish method wasn't the obvious way to go in response to the pandemic.

Well that's nice for her:

But the rest of us need technology:

I see that Biden and Obama both went on TV for late night comedian "interviews." I guess we know what the shape of journalism will be for the next four years. Good God, the wet-kiss news media isn't friendly enough for them? Yes, yes, these aren't news people. But they are setting the standard for what Biden and Harris expect. The "hard" news people will grovel just as eagerly. And willingly.

Yes, if Trump was a Democrat he'd get the Nobel Peace Prize for any one of the peace agreements between four Arab states and Israel. And yes, recognizing Israel is tantamount to a peace deal in these circumstances. Heck, Trump would have gotten one once in office just for his "potential."

Iran's global "Quds force" terrorist organization within the Iranian state. Poor Iranian finances and the decline of leftist terrorists in South America limit its power now, but with a base of operations in Venezuela it could ramp up if the Biden administration loosens the financial squeeze on the mullah regime. God help the world if Quds has access to nukes. If Iran wasn't a mullah-run despotism they'd be a natural ally against the jihadis from the Sunni world we've been battling for nearly twenty years on the Long War. That and other problems would be easier to solve without mullah-run Iran.

Of course Iran can get Xi Jinping Flu vaccines "despite" American sanctions. Iran is under sanctions and not under blockade by America. Iran blames sanctions for everything. Don't buy their BS. And given that Iran was hit hard early by their direct air links and high-level contacts with China, China is obviously a route for a vaccine. Don't put Iran's problems on America when the virus came from China and when the mullah rulers initially said Allah protected Iran's faithful from the virus. Maybe if Iran had a higher priority on coping with the pandemic rather than seeking nuclear weapons the Iranian people would be better off.

Pretty much:

I see the media has started the "look at the foreign policy problem Biden will inherit from Trump" nonsense. No media people ever lament what a Republican inherits from a Democrat. Apparently Democrats leave a global kite-flying paradise to those luck SOB Republicans. I have little tolerance for this media genre. How can Democratic presidents grow up with "helicopter journalists" forever protecting their precious little ones from facing the world as it is? 

Well, Space Force troops better learn to box or learn to dance. Space Force just guaranteed that its troops will be bullied on the Joint playground. Space Force has decided to call its troops "guardians." I kid you not. I certainly can't imagine any soldier, sailor, airmen, or marine sarcastically mocking their newest comrades in arms, "Hey, guardian ... Ow! My nipples!" I suggested "spacor" with my reasoning set out here. But does the Pentagon listen to me? Nooooo. They didn't listen to me on PAINCOM and I doubt Space Force will call its future close combat troop units SMOD. I'm giving the Pentagon gold here, I tell you, but they don't listen.

This is how you know that polls on most subjects are worthless: "In the poll, when asked, “Is President-elect Biden your president?” 56% said yes, 34% no, and 10% were not sure." The proper answer should have been 100% no because the president-elect is not the president! When he is sworn in (99% chance of that, although the 1% is almost exclusively the chance of Harris pushing Biden down a flight of stairs in the next three weeks rather than Trump proving enough voter fraud in that time) I will of course--regrettably--say yes, he is my president. Trump was my president. Obama was my president. Bush 43 was my president. And so on back to Eisenhower, in theory (good Lord, that hadn't occurred to me until just now). Maybe the pollsters should focus on honestly and accurately tracking voter polls for elections.

Just one more:

Her priorities for her constituents don't apply to her, naturally. 

Despite their draconian measures to keep people in line during the Xi Jinping Flu California is in rough shape. This is far from gloating. Just a note that supposed best practices are no match for the virus. And a reminder to avoid judging relative performance until this is over.

Tell me you are surprised that Democrats are running interference for campus Confucius Institutes--Chinese Communist Party propaganda and espionage nests on our college campuses. Tip to Instapundit.

They're going to convince me to scrape off my alumni association sticker from my car, aren't they? At any moment the stupidity piled on the asininity is going to push me over the edge to do that, isn't it? Sigh. Ow, my nipples. Tip to Instapundit.

What is their major malfunction?

North Korea is sending their special forces into China and Russia to capture smugglers in order to seal their border. The Chinese and Russians cooperate. 

Police and armed local people in Nigeria rescued 84 of a reported 113 children kidnapped there. The children attended an Islamic school and the government called the kidnappers "bandits." Was it a "business" venture for profit, selling the kids back to families for ransom or to armed groups for "recruits?" Or could it have been attempted revenge for jihadis kidnapping children?

If I understand the rules of treating people, I think that because Doctor Johnny Fever is such an outstanding doctor that he should be named surgeon general by the Biden administration.

Turkey continues to get squeezed out of its northwest Syria buffer zone notwithstanding the ceasefire that does not prevent Russian-backed Syrian forces from isolating Turkish outposts guarding the borders of the buffer zone.

Too many of our elites apparently don't fear the Xi Jinping Flu as much as they tell us to fear it--and hide away from it.  I had a better opinion of Dr. Birx until this story. How do they have credibility left?

I always suspect that calculations of this sort are BS given that nobody has any way of judging what is reasonable for calculating how many--if any--civilizations developed in the galaxy. And this calculation has some big BS involved, such as assuming for the purpose of the calculations "intelligent creatures' tendency toward self-annihilation" as a given. How was that established as reasonable to assume?  By looking at the survival rate of planetary civilizations? Um, that would be one--Earth--and the survival rate is 100%. How is it not biased to assume we will destroy ourselves contrary to the outcome so far and that projected outcome is the norm? This isn't science. Tip to Instapundit.

Nah, it will be fine. Right?