Saturday, August 09, 2014

Calling Doctor Kevorkian

I tend to assume that North Korea will collapse at some point. The regime--if not the state--is dying. But I've long stopped looking for signs of imminent collapse. Until North Korea experiences regime or state collapse, their nutball rulers will inflict a lot of damage even if we are lucky and that damage is confined to North Koreans.

One can hope:

The mighty North Korean People's Army is crumbling. Is the ruling Kim dynasty next?

After noting the rot in the North Korean military, the author writes that the military is unlikely to strike Jong-Un:

Nevertheless, a military coup is unlikely. One party rule and the suppression of internal dissent means there is a lack of a credible alternative for the military to back. The military could impose a junta of senior military officers but thanks to Songun, it already is getting the best deal it can.

Like the Kim regime itself, the military simply has no good choices. The North Korean People's Army will likely continue to back the Kim regime and march into oblivion.

I don't know about that. While I've given up predicting the collapse, North Korea can't afford Songun. That's why they went to the strategy of spooks and nukes to keep the kooks in power.

Jong-Un has reversed that decision on paper, but there is very little to prioritize for the military. If backing the Kim regime can't provide resources because there aren't resources, the military has little reason to stand with Kim Jong-Un.

Really, the military would find China all too happy to support a coup if the military can prevent state collapse and risk South Korean and American troops rolling north across the DMZ to unify the peninsula.

Heck, given the costs of unification, South Korea might welcome that, too. As might we if it relieves us of the responsibility to act.

And however little the military gets, the people are getting even less to funnel goodies to the elites who do back the Kim regime. Might the military not discover a new meaning for being the Korean People's Army?

The only thing we can know for sure is that North Koreans will continue to pay a price for living in this gulag with a UN seat until and long after the despicable Kim regime is gone.

We'll see how much of a price we or North Korea's neighbors must pay, too/