Troop Build Up

Countdown to Invasion: 7 days.

When near, appear far. When strong, appear weak.

Everyone is saying February invasion. We need more time, they all say. Troop strengths in the Gulf continue to ratchet up (now it is given as 60,000). More reservists are on duty now than a couple months ago (7 or 8 thousand more if my memory is correct). Defense officials note that we have more heavy equipment in the Gulf than is publicly reported. Three heavy divisions are apparently on call for the invasion (1st Armored and 1st Infantry (Mechanized) in Germany (4 brigades total) and 3rd Infantry (Mechanized) from Georgia (3 brigades, with one brigade reported in Kuwait now)). Our airmobile 101st Airborne Division will go. 1st Marine Expeditionary Force will go too. And the article mentions an Italy-based parachute brigade as going. Unmentioned is 10th Mountain Division which I think will go too. And the Rangers. One more heavy division than I thought but if the British heavy stuff won’t make it in time for the invasion, this makes sense. We then get one heavy division with a single brigade to simulate all of V Corps in Kuwait (plus artillery and attack helos to make lots of noise and mimic a major drive north to the Euphrates); and two heavy divisions with 6 brigades for the main thrust out of Jordan and maybe western Saudi Arabia supported by the 101st and the parachute brigade to grab airheads in western Iraq. The Brits will have a couple brigades too, though not much heavy stuff, to help the Marines take Basra. Our mountain division’s two brigades deploy in northern Iraq to the east of the Turkish corps that advances south. Nobody else will commit major combat units though special forces, naval, and air elements may arrive from friendly nations.

I will be shocked (and quite obviously wrong, too) if we wait until February. I’ll be surprised if we wait until January. Maybe I’ll start to believe at face value more of what I read in the papers and have a little more faith in the skills of reporters.

On to Baghdad.