Chemical Strikes

This article is interesting and probably quite right that Saddam will opt for a scorched earth policy; but ends with a statement I think is clearly wrong: “War planners don't expect a chemical and biological attack in the early stages of war, but they do say that it could be a last act of deadly vengeance and defiance.”

Saddam’s only chance to survive our invasion is to knock us back on our heels by launching what he’s got as soon as we strike. When defeat is staring his commanders in the face, they will hesitate or refuse to shoot. Only in the beginning of the war will they fear Saddam more than us. We need to assume chemicals from H-Hour on.

Oh, I note that when leaders refer to late February as invasion time, they often note there is no particular timetable, which everybody assumes means it could be later—even much later.

Why couldn’t it mean earlier? That’s what I think, anyway. That’s the only way to get tactical surprise at this point.