Thanks for reading TDR. I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and sharing links. I post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I also occasionally post short data dump items on my Substack "Notes" section.
I continue to update this post on the now Hezbollah-centric Israeli war on Iran's proxies.
Oh: "Since the 1970s the PA has diverted nearly half a billion dollars in foreign aid to pay Palestinian terrorists for killing Israeli civilians and soldiers. There is an elaborate system for paying the families of dead Palestinian terrorists as well as lesser payments for those imprisoned for attacks on Israelis."
I see reports of an Israeli brigade commander killed in action in Gaza, but this ISW report says he's a brigade commander and identifies the colonel as a battalion commander. Clearly a battalion commander, I'd say.
After 32 months of war, Ukraine's squeeze of supplies into Crimea is having an effect. I wonder if that will all be undone after Russia completes a rail link through occupied Ukrainian territory north of the Sea of Azov. The gift of time is always appreciated by an enemy.
More fabricating than reminding: "This year has seen President Vladimir Putin repeatedly brandish the nuclear sword, reminding everyone that Russia has the world’s largest atomic arsenal to try to deter the West from ramping up support for Ukraine."
Canada may be weak but they can stand their ground [Link fixed].
CRS report on nuclear-armed, sea-launched cruise missiles. I lean against this. Air defenses are much better against cruise missiles. Can we spare ships from sea control for nuclear missions? And it's dangerous for a nuclear power to think conventional attacks are nukes. But my opinion is fluid right now.
Missiles and drones: "Estonia is looking to acquire weapons and gear to hit an invading force
before it reaches the country’s borders, the head of its defense
procurement office says."
No matter how poorly Russia's military is performing, it is dying and fighting. As long as Russia is better than its target, it can win. Going on three years, Ukraine still hasn't bought Europe enough time to re-arm.
Communism does more damage than storms: "On Sunday afternoon the Cuban Electrical Union announced that more than
216,000 people in Havana, a city of 2 million, had power restored. The
power grid collapsed again later in the day –– for the fourth time since
Friday." Oh, it's not true communism!
An Air Force study says it must focus on countering China. Oddly, the article doesn't mention the need for anti-ship capabilities. Or maybe not odd. Perhaps the call is to just bomb somebody else. Huh, in the study only two mentions of "anti-ship" and both refer to Chinese missiles. Same stuff. Different map.
I don't believe we can bribe North Korea into abandoning support for Russia, but yeah: "Divided by ideological differences, and opposing medium-term goals, the new 'axis of evil' is hardly an axis at all." Sure, they all fear we'll thwart their aims. They are not an alliance. Just an angry chorus.
Revive our economy and the floundering BRICS will disintegrate.
I hate to enter politics, but since this is clearly a reference to using the National Guard and possibly regular troops to stop rioters and not rivals--a mission well within their roles--I have to question the author's trustworthiness. I mean, Antifa and their ilk rioted at Trump's first inauguration.
Moldova narrowly voted to move closer to EU membership despite Russian efforts to derail that. When Russia is threatening, even joining the EU is a good idea.
Goodlife: "Israeli security agencies on Monday said they had uncovered and stopped an Iranian spy ring operating out of northern Israel after seven Israeli citizens were detained over allegations of working to aid Jerusalem’s top adversary."
Will the army parasite tolerate this? "Pakistan’s ruling coalition approved a set of changes in the Constitution early Monday morning, in a show of strength in parliament by cutting the powers of the top judiciary to appoint its chief."
Probably: "[Sinwar's] death therefore will be a major psychological blow which in some will undermine the will to continue the fight." Killing Hitler in 1940 wouldn't have mattered. In 1945 after Germany was smashed up, it mattered a lot. Peace requires Gazans to get the war they celebrated--good and hard.
Will Georgians really vote to re-enter the gulag?
Palau. Becoming more important every day.
Valuable training opportunities for the Army Typhon missile system in the Philippines.
The Burke lives on. It's a good ship but getting old. And there's no replacement on the horizon.
What's going on in Cuba? Have they had enough of "Not true communism"?
The proposed Montana super battleship was a waste of resources better spent elsewhere, even during World War II. Alas, the author doesn't take the next step to consider today's money suck.
Force... Decline: "A new [CRS] report brings harsh scrutiny to the Marine Corps’ Force Design 2030, with many in Congress and the Department of Defense reportedly having buyer’s remorse." Helping the Navy sink Chinese ships isn't a bad idea. But not all Marines! There was another way.
It's interesting balancing writing on two platforms. I've gotten to the point where my links go both ways. But I still have to restrain myself from making TDR posts Tuesday through Saturday too long. And so far, I have more than enough material for Tuesday to Friday posts on TDR:E. They're still stacked up.
I don't know why there is an attitude that losing any of our decades-old Abrams or F-16s should be impossible: "If any of them survive the war [in Ukraine], 'they probably weren't used to their maximum extent,' a warfare expert said." Exactly. The problem is lack of replacements to keep using them.
Oh? "Ukrainian drone maker Wild Hornets is developing an interceptor designed to counter Russia's Shahed-136 loitering munitions, The Telegraph reported." Friggin' fighter drones!
Thank you, Germany! "The Russian Foreign Ministry summoned the German ambassador on Tuesday to protest against the opening of a new German Navy headquarters that aims to bolster NATO's defence readiness in the Baltic Sea region." I believe I've often asked Germany to dominate the Baltic Sea.
Blowback: "South Korean armed forces’ 'Voice of Freedom' has been broadcasting around-the-clock to North Koreans that their troops are deployed to Russia to support the invasion of Ukraine[.]" And South Korea promises more consequences for Russia renting North Korean troops to fight in Ukraine.
Huh: "Germany and the U.K. plan to sign a new defense agreement on Wednesday that will see the two countries develop new long-range strike weapons, prioritize securing NATO’s eastern flank and field a new class of drones for accompanying their ... tank formations[.]" British Army of the Vistula to follow?
Peacekeeping: "Nearly 200 Oregon National Guard soldiers with the 1st Battalion, 186th
Infantry Regiment have been mobilized to deploy to the Sinai Peninsula
in Egypt for a peacekeeping mission[.]" The MFO is not a UN mission.
Note that Iraq continues to help us kill jihadis: "Two U.S. troops were injured in a joint raid with Iraqi security forces that Baghdad said killed the Islamic State terrorist group's leader and eight other senior leaders, according to the Pentagon." How easily our victory is overlooked.
Should Trump win, I suspect this will be one way to sell--not give--weapons to Ukraine: "The U.K. has approved a £2.26 billion military loan for Ukraine using the profits from frozen Russian assets[.]"
That's lovely: "Australia announced this week it was buying $4.7 billion in American-made SM-2 and SM-6 missiles — two of the world’s most advanced air defense interceptors — in a colossal foreign military sale." But is production enough for our operational needs now?
Pain: "Invading Ukraine in 2022 proved to be a disaster for the Russian economy." Casualties and men fleeing Russia, sanctions, and increased war spending.
Uh oh: "North Korea is demanding help with its nuclear weapons and ballistic
missile programs. This angers China ... Not
only is China reducing economic cooperation with Russia but is also
raising the issue of extensive portions of Russia’s Far Eastern Pacific
coastal provinces that are claimed by China." Uh oh.
Ukrainians sabotage Russia's railroads.
The mission of North Korea's 12,000 troops sent to fight for Russia is unclear. The sure aren't true special forces. Seemingly they are decent light infantry assumed to be loyal enough not to desert. But if Putin uses them like Russian troops who lose a thousand troops per day, the North Koreans won't last long.
Iran's 45 years of terrorism: "On November 4, 1979, Iranian students among other Islamic (Shia) revolutionaries attacked and took over the U.S. Embassy at Tehran, taking fifty-plus American hostages." Cut the Gordian Knot.
When the empire won't protect a province: "Belarusian border guards are said to be waving migrants through as part of an attempt to destabilise Poland and the EU. So in response, Tusk has announced ‘the temporary suspension of the right to asylum on [Polish] territory’" Tusk?! Is the EU "falling apart"?
Make sure that "when the fighting stops" it is because Russia lost and not won: "When the fighting stops Russia will retain a sizeable population, albeit with deep demographic issues, substantial capabilities, and most damningly, an unbridled imperial mindset."
The military's logistics shortcomings for a war across the western Pacific.
Assets are tight: "With a new commander in Miami and a new administration coming in Washington, it is time for U.S. policymakers to (finally) provide SOUTHCOM with the assets it needs to fully perform its mission." AFRICOM's motto is "Thank God for SOUTHCOM!" How about The SOUTHCOM Queen?
Sh*t got real: "U.S. and Filipino marines used live fire Tuesday to rehearse their defense against a hostile amphibious landing, less than 150 miles from the August scene of a coast guard clash between China and U.S.-ally the Philippines."
Well let's hope we can use that data better than an enemy: "In a future war, Army tanks growling around the battlefield may be able to send live data back to their headquarters showing every time they fire a round or burn a gallon of fuel." I worry we will neglect defending the data while moving the data.
Australia to send surplus Abrams tanks to Ukraine.
Read more at: https://www.stripes.com/theaters/asia_pacific/2024-10-23/kamandag-philippines-palawan-invasion-15598204.html?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru
Source - Stars and Stripes
Via Instapundit, does Russia's military face collapse by 2026 from weapon shortages? Well, operations would slow down before that. But a morale collapse is possible at any time. It likely nearly happened in autumn 2022. That said, such a prediction could easily be for the purpose of bolstering Ukrainian morale.
Senior retired officers go way outside their lane to claim political expertise. This is a dangerous trend unlikely to reverse serious concerns about our general and flag officers.
Ukraine's thermite-dropping Dragon Drone. I suspect its value is more of a morale booster in the face of Russia's widespread use of chemical weapons that combine riot control agents and deadly pesticide.
Japan continues to expand its fleet.
A defended border is fundamental to defending America. And quiet, secure borders are a foundation for power projection.
Well, sure: "Canada’s continued underinvestment leaves its NATO obligations unmet and weakens the overall defense of both the alliance as a whole and the North American continent. Canadians deserve better[.]" But taking off to the Great White North may be its core mission.
The Egypt-Eritrea-Somalia alliance is aimed at Ethiopia. The GERD Nile dam in Ethiopia is Egypt's worry. Where will this lead if regional countries line up?
Russia and North Korea are formalizing defense ties with a treaty. Is this for justifying North Korean troops sent to fight Ukraine for Russia? Or is it really aimed at China? With maybe the Tumen River issue triggering this response?
I'm sure this is intended to "Trump-proof" aid to Ukraine for a while: "The U.S. on Wednesday finalized its $20 billion portion of a
long-awaited $50 billion loan to Ukraine backed by frozen Russian assets" But I suspect it is something Trump would be fine with to fund purchases from American defense industry.
Indonesia confronts China's South China Sea subliminal offensive: "The Indonesian National Armed Forces said its Maritime Security Agency's command and control center detected China's coast guard ship at the southern edge of the South China Sea, on Monday."
Palau: "From Oct. 10-11, 2024, the U.S. Army’s 25th Infantry Division conducted an airfield seizure exercise as part of the Joint Pacific Multinational Readiness Center 25-01." Rangers went in first. The exercise seemed to focus on HIMARS and "missiles," implying a temporary A2/AD outpost.
WTAF? "The Biden-Harris administration has promoted the senior Pentagon employee who was outed as a member of an Iranian government-run influence operation, Politico reported." The AF. And how many Iranian assets are there?
Hmmm: "With only four remaining publicly owned naval shipyards and a handful of private shipyards that are near their capacity, the United States must consider turning to foreign shipbuilders." We should expand capacity with robotics and innovative construction procedures that match past innovation.
Size matters: "REFORPAC, the large-scale exercise in the Pacific planned for summer 2025, will be on a scale unseen by the Air Force in recent memory: nearly 300 aircraft spread across 25 locations."
Coastal defense: "'It controls the straights into the Sulu Sea and into the South China Sea and West Philippine Sea,' he told Stars and Stripes while standing on Palawan’s western shore Tuesday."
Hello: "Two American destroyers, armed with missiles, were sent by an aircraft carrier group to the Barents Sea on Monday, conducting maritime operations on Russia's Arctic doorstep."
The shape of a sea campaign in the Strait of Hormuz takes shape: "U.S. Navy and United Arab Emirates drone operations wrapped up Thursday after a 10-day exercise in the Persian Gulf, where Iran was hosting its own maritime showcase on the opposite side of the strategic waterway." Eventually.
Is the solution to the Army's recruiting problem setting lower physical standards for non-combat troops? Maybe. But lifting stuff and stamina are needed by everyone. And sh*t happens. I worry that this simply means we'd have a much smaller true combat Army with civilians in uniform in the support units.
Vietnam is vying with China on island expansion: "Vietnam aimed to leverage its island construction to strengthen control over the Spratlys, as it was likely to establish a constant presence of maritime enforcement vessels and expand the deployment of military facilities there." Defend them.
Huh: "Fearing China will deploy hypersonic weapons to sink ships in the Pacific, the U.S. Navy is moving forward with a plan to arm some of its vessels with Patriot interceptor missiles[.]" The worry is prudent.
Interesting that Iraq is turning to America for help as Chinese investments dry up. I guess the "China is replacing America" claim is dead. Iran wants investments to capture rather than flare natural gas to end reliance on Iranian gas exports. Does Iraq recognize China won't help Iraq resist Iran's influence?
DEI wrecked recruiting: "The veteran community has lost faith in the country’s national-security leadership. The military is a family business—80% of volunteers have a family member who served." The military earned loss of confidence. The problem isn't recruit attitudes. It's leaders who shaped the attitudes.
Via Instapundit, fix officer education: "Refocus the service academies on disciplines related to warfighting and engineering." Yeah: "Any undergrad degree other than engineering should be banned. And enforce the Honor Code. And while we're add it, figure out what we're doing wrong with flag officer education."
Ukraine strikes petroleum and railroad targets inside Russia to disrupt logistics. The West continues to supply Ukraine and provide intelligence while Russia has to buy support from China and North Korea. Things are getting worse inside Russia but Putin maintains the loyalty of security forces.
Why the F-35 gets undeserved media coverage. Good points. Unmentioned is the old Russian disinformation campaign that tried to get the program canceled before the plane was produced. Maybe the effect of that propaganda lingers on, too. Users seem very happy with the plane.
Cuba blames its problems on America's embargo on trade with Cuba. The U.S. reports that as nonsense. My memory is that our embargo is looser now. And more importantly the rest of the world ignores it.
Ukraine's main problem is manpower. Still, I will remind you that Iran did not defeat Iraq; Russia withdrew from Afghanistan; China could not defeat America in South Korea; and America withdrew from South Vietnam and Afghanistan. Larger population doesn't mean you can lose men at the same ratio.
Is Iran deterred by Israel's aerial strike on Iran? Who knows how nutballs on a mission from Allah think? I prefer to destroy capabilities rather than try to deter an enemy from using their capabilities. Below the nuclear threshold, of course. After the next Iranian barrage, Israel hits nukes, energy, or leadership targets.
This author speaks of the "Biden-Harris regime’s intense unrequited love for the Islamic Republic of Iran[.]" It really is a mystery. Deploying American troops to protect Israel is just as much about protecting Iran from Israel.
Russia's "shadow fleet" is one way Russia evades energy export sanctions: "By early 2024, Russia had acquired more than 600 old tankers to continue these operations."
The pro-Russian Georgian Dream party won their election in Georgia, but by too small a margin to enact constitutional changes. Voting to re-enter the gulag is bizarre. There are indications of voting fraud.
