Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out and subscribe! Hell, share links. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I'm also occasionally posting short data dump items on my Substack "Notes" section.

Huh: "North Korea has expanded its espionage activities by sending agents trained to act like South Koreas to western nations, including the United States, where they get jobs with firms that have technical information North Korea wants." Plus hacking data and cryptocurrency.

And now for something completely different:

Interesting: "For decades North Korea arms factories operated at low capacity to produce shells, rockets, and bullets for stockpiles to be used in a war with South Korea. Now North Korea has unexpectedly large orders from Russia but can’t obtain the raw materials needed to fill those orders."

North Korea prioritizes the army, but "military families are also going hungry. Political officers, who monitor such things, report that a growing number of military personnel, both conscripts as well as career officers and their families, are hungry and openly criticizing the government." Ignoring the army failed.

Training for warship battle damage assessment. Now do shipyards and trained personnel to build and repair warships.

We'll preserve China's objection in the circular file: "The U.S. is in the final stages of sending almost $570 million in security assistance to Taiwan — the largest such package to date, and one sure to frustrate China — according to multiple congressional aides and a U.S. official."

Britain: "it is difficult to build almost anything, anywhere. This prevents investment, increases energy costs, and makes it harder for productive economic clusters to expand. This, in turn, lowers our productivity, incomes, and tax revenues." You can Brexit. But I guess you can't take the EU out of Britain. 

Sh*t got real: "The 68th Theater Medical Command, activated at a ceremony in southwestern Germany, will serve as a 'one-stop shop' for everything medical on the Continent." 

AFRICOM has little force to wield. So you find alternatives: "The U.S. aims to show that its prescription for good relations in Africa includes medical partnerships with militaries across the continent, some of which are engaged in heated campaigns against militant terrorist groups." The AFRICOM Queen?

It's inconceivable the box could be stolen: "The Air Force has been developing a portable data center that can hold maintenance and sustainment docs for every plane the service has—in a container the size of a window air conditioner." Right??

Welp: "The U.S. expects to announce next week a long-awaited agreement with Iraq on reducing the U.S. troop presence in the country, two administration officials said on Friday." Answering my question with "One more time!" But engineering a decent interval by pushing the date to the next president's tenure.

Until Russia disperses their ammunition and allocates air defense missiles, Ukraine's campaign of blowing up huge ammo dumps just might slow down Russia's invasion. And dispersal and defense imposes costs on Russia, too.

The U.S. has a carrier in CENTCOM (including F-18s ashore), an amphibious group in the Mediterranean carrying a Marine battalion, a SSGN, and a handful of destroyers; and four Air Force squadrons (F-16, F-15, A-10, and F-22). Unmentioned are Army units in Kuwait, Syria, Iraq, and Djibouti.

I don't like this federal power grab: "Congress is poised to adopt language in the annual National Defense Authorization Act that would override governors’ authority over National Guard units." I don't think a Space Force Guard makes sense. Find another way to create a Space Force Reserve.

The Green Rainbow Machine doesn't worry enemies: "Today our military services face growing threats around the world while their ability to maintain a quality, well-trained, and capable force is at risk. Our focus should be on readiness, warfighting, and especially selecting the best qualified leaders possible[.]"

West Worst Point.  Contra MacArthur, our military has too many substitutes for victory.

Is this the result of the X-37? "An amateur astronomer has reportedly captured images of classified US spacecraft."

Potential enemies will do stuff like that: "Pentagon reports say China’s new H-20 bomber has concerning attack range[.]"

Smart Diplomacy®: "Washington’s continuing inability or refusal to formulate let alone execute a winning strategy in Ukraine impedes Kyiv’s efforts to do so and risks achieving defeat despite Russia’s abysmal strategic leadership." If we aren't trying to win, we provide a safety net to an enemy trying to win.

Has Iran sacrificed Hamas in order to gain influence in Lebanon? Will Israel allow that?

Does "concern" encompass action? "President Joe Biden on Saturday hosted a fourth Quad Leaders Summit with Japanese, Australian and Indian leaders, noting issues in the Indo-Pacific region: 'serious concern' over maritime violations by China and North Korea's destabilizing ballistic missile launches." 

If you are confused about college football conference realignment, even the Michigan sports site (it was finally fixed on 9/27, I think) hadn't fully digested the change after defeating new Big 10 member USC last Saturday. Michigan is actually 1-0 in conference play:

 

Men in Afghanistan are having a "it seemed like a good idea at the time" moment as they endure Taliban rule. We effed up. But they--and the women and children suffering more--have to live with their screw-up every day. Just saying our defeat isn't permanent. No more than any victory is permanent.

Leadership: "One of the less publicized forms of NATO military aid for Ukraine was the establishment of a training course for Ukrainian officers based on previous military operations and the current ones in Ukraine. So far over 700 officers from the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces (TDF) have graduated[.]"

The Army's CALL pays off for Ukraine. Many years ago, CALL had a lot more publicly available resources.

The multi-war in Syria (it's too complicated to just call a civil war) continues at a lower pace: "Since 2012 Syria has been in turmoil, dealing with a civil war, Islamic terrorism, and Iranian efforts to launch attacks on Israel." Lebanon shares the turmoil and complexity.

Want an illustration of China's ascendancy over Russia? All three of China's carriers were at sea at the same time, for the first time. And Russia's carrier Kuznetsov? "[Russia] reportedly reassigned the aging ship’s sailors to the army—and sent them into battle in Ukraine." Russia accepted God's gift.

China faces anti-access/area denial (A2/AD), too: "The Air Force is keeping the momentum going with its bomber deployments in Australia, with regional allies increasingly 'welcoming' them as a strategic counterbalance to China’s growing assertiveness." All our bombers can carry LRASM.

So what's the replacement plane? "The U.S. Air Force is set to significantly cut back the number of F-16 Viper aggressor jets at Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada, including those flown by a squadron that stood up in a high profile manner just last year." The early blocks are certainly aging.

Consider this a preview of China in the South China Sea: "Ukraine on Monday accused Russia of seeking to illegally seize control of the strategically important Sea of Azov and Kerch Strait, as hearings opened in a high-stakes arbitration case between Kyiv and Moscow."

We'll see: "Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky toured a Pennsylvania ammunition plant on Sunday as he began a key visit to the United States in which he is expected to present his blueprint to defeat Russia to President Joe Biden and other allies." Is the plan realistic? Will America and our allies supply it?

Oh? "Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan called for U.S. sanctions blocking some defence purchases by his country and for other "unilateral" measures that hinder the NATO allies' ability to hit long-term bilateral trade targets to be lifted." Dude, we're still on a break. 

RUMORINT? "gCaptain has received multiple reports that the US Navy oiler USNS Big Horn ran aground yesterday and partially flooded off the coast of Oman, leaving the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group without its primary fuel source." Our fleet sails on its stomach. Tip to Instapundit.

A hypersonic missile truck: "A new B-52 variant, the B-52J is currently on the way with better engines and hypersonic missile capability." A2/AD doesn't build itself, you know.

West Africa is becoming a haven for jihadis, accelerating flows of people to Europe. Russia's Wagner has replaced Western power fighting jihadis but have had no success stopping the jihadis. As if Russia has any interest in doing anything but accelerating illegal migration to Europe!

Russia leans on North Korea for resupply. And provides missile technology to North Korea. Not that this is a surprise.

And yet America plans to withdraw its troops from Iraq, apart from small forces in the Kurdish region of Iraq: "Iraq remains a war zone, although not as violent as in the past. The main source of violence is Iran as well as Islamic terrorist groups that continue operating in the more remote parts of Iraq."

I never heard of this designation: "America’s declaration that the United Arab Emirates is now officially its second-ever Major Defense Partner is expected draw the two friendly nations even closer on military matters and may offer a boost to the UAE’s beleaguered effort to join the international F-35 program[.]"

Should Guam have its missile defense needs met with a cheaper alternative that has a smaller foot print? The man makes a good point.

RUMORINT on that oiler accident is confirmed. CDR Salamander has thoughts on being more than a coastal defense Navy. I heartily concur.

The Army in Germany has a new tracked, armored M270A2. It has twice the rocket load of the lighter and more famous HIMARS. And it can carry 4 of the new Precision Strike Missiles that replace ATACMS.

Prudent: "The Army’s current method of rearming and refueling its helicopters worked well in past wars, but leaders fear it won’t keep pace with the faster-paced, move-or-be-killed wars of the future." But getting into the air isn't really safe, either.

To be fair, while Trump complains about military aid to Ukraine and said he wants to quickly end the war, the story doesn't say Trump plans to cut off aid to Ukraine to address his complaints, as the title says. I'd be disgusted if Trump clears the way for Russia to win. Russia's buffer needs don't trump our need.

Because our military has been ordered to battle so-called climate change, I'll take editor's privilege to note the Earth is colder than it has been in 485 million years (tip to Instapundit). As I've long said, I don't doubt humans emit CO2. I don't know if it is significant. And I don't assume warming is bad. Crisis, indeed.

France ignores Hezbollah in its zeal to pressure Israel to step back from full war inside Lebanon. I guess we have the return of "cheese-eating surrender monkeys" in Paris. Why don't people ask why a major non-state military force with its own (Iran's?) foreign policy exists inside a sovereign state?

I guess if the missile is stealthy it's marginally okay to mount it outside the plane: "The Pentagon has, for the first time, released a photo showing an F-35 stealth fighter carrying an AGM-158C Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM)." But yeah, the missile reduces the F-35 stealth profile.

The United States announced new military aid to Ukraine, including armored vehicles, armored bridge-laying vehicles, small boats, anti-tank weapons, artillery ammunition and aircraft ordnance.

Russia's ground force: it is what it is.

Russia can't get Western ball bearings now: "Russian railroads are at the point of collapse. This process began before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. This process was underway before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022." This is a repeat. But quite relevant.

China announced an ICBM test: "This launch is a powerful signal intended to intimidate everyone." Oh? So nobody has intelligence agencies? It's a surprise to everyone that China has ICBMs? I think people get carried away with the significance of "signals" to others.

I'm confused. The Marines will emphasize close-range rifle proficiency based on war on terror experience just as they are de-emphasizing ground combat to shoot at ships? Won't long-range rifle fire be useful to protect the perimeters of SIF island anti-ship missile outposts? Whatever. Rifles will soon do the aiming.

I would be happy to return the favor and unseat the Taliban. This former Afghan general want to fight them: "Former Afghan Lt. Gen. Sami Sadat believes he’ll once again see that flag ascend in Afghan skies." But I worry our funding will just support a lavish life in exile without affecting the Taliban.

Good: "Personnel from 10 nations will join in a massive 10-day Army exercise in Hawaii next month with drills taking place on three of the state’s islands." It isn't large-scale combat operations training. But familiarization will enable that when the tyranny of the shores arises, as I described in Military Review.

Navy force structure and shipbuilding plans.

Duty: "With a live grenade about to explode during a sudden training mishap, Marine Sgt. Brett D. Meil’s only thoughts were for his student, so he threw his own body over a junior Marine just before the grenade went off." Giving trainees a live grenade is a moment of tension for the trainer, as I experienced.

And then, the aerial vex: "American and Filipino security officials have agreed to keep a U.S. mid-range missile system in the northern Philippines indefinitely to boost deterrence despite China’s expressions of alarm[.]" Well perhaps we could stay a bit longer.

Yeah: "The real problem is Tehran. 'The Three H' are not autonomous actors, but stand-ins for Iran, America’s mightiest enemy in the Greater Middle East. Iran has paid, trained, and armed them all. Let them fight and die for the greater glory of the Islamic Republic." Mullah-run Iran is the Gordian Knot.

Protection: "NATO nations fear future threats from Russia and seek to upgrade their air defenses, especially their supply of Patriot missiles. The American manufacturer of these missiles is increasing production and [to replenish stockpiles] those increases will continue after the Ukraine war is over [.]"

Strategery: "The economy is a mess, as in stagnant and shrinking. Russia has fewer friends or allies and the future looks dim. Sending troops into Ukraine (2014 and 2022), Syria (2015) and Libya (2016) has not helped solve any of the fundamental problems there but made for great propaganda." 

Bravo! We won't highlight the goal was 10,000 fewer than before: "After several dismal recruiting years, Army officials announced the service has exceeded its recruiting goals for this fiscal year." Quite the "success" on paper.

Support: "Israel said on Thursday it had secured an $8.7 billion aid package from the United States to support its ongoing military efforts and to maintain a qualitative military edge in the region."

Oh, joy: "North Korea has likely enriched enough uranium to build a “double-digit” number of bombs and is making progress in its efforts to develop more powerful and accurate missiles targeting rival South Korea[.]"

I worry because China is close to our allies and we are far. And our Navy has problems. But don't be fooled by the new-ship smell: "China’s newest nuclear-powered submarine sank pierside in the spring and the Chinese Navy tried to conceal the loss, according to two US defense officials." Via Instapundit. 

Japan is not intimidated by China's incursions into Japan's territorial waters: "A Japanese warship has sailed through the Taiwan Strait between Taiwan and China for the first time, prompting Beijing to lodge complaints with Tokyo."

Germany, France, and America announced more aid for Ukraine. It looks like Biden is front-loading aid to last beyond his term. I find it hard to believe (not saying "inconceivable") Trump would cut off aid (rather than change it to loans or some other "deal"), but that seems to be the administration assumption. 

Well, sure, the EU wants to build a multi-ethnic empire of atomized subjects rather than citizens: "The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) has published a report warning of the danger that 'whiteness' and 'Europeanness' pose to the European Union."

Poland seeks to be a hard target and to be worthy of America deploying troops to Poland, which is the center of gravity of American power in NATO now. 

Not every Navy problem is self-inflicted: "Shipuilder Newport News Shipbuilding, Va., informed the Department of Justice of faulty welds that may have been made intentionally on non-critical components on in-service Navy submarines and aircraft carriers, USNI News has learned."

It is interesting that the Biden officials are outraged at any suggestion that Ukraine should give up territory to Russia to end the fighting. Until February 2022, they had no problem accepting what Russia captured since 2014. I agree we shouldn't compel Ukraine to make such a deal. But what will Ukraine die for?

Corruption and the rise of Russia, China, and the Europe-spawned and America-defended West.

Those bad welds on Navy ships were due to failure to follow proper welding procedures rather than from malicious intent. That's a bit of comfort. But it also puts more responsibility on the Navy for failure to ensure proper procedures were followed. Are there any more failures in shipbuilding oversight?

Yeah: "[The Army is] under persistent surveillance, and the information that we are being presented with and that we are presenting to our adversaries is allowing our adversaries and our … commanders to learn lessons that can be used in future stages of war." More reason to limit the scope of mil-to-mil contacts.

The Long Frayed Line. Any undergrad degree other than engineering should be banned. And enforce the Honor Code. And while we're add it, figure out what we're doing wrong with flag officer education. Tip to Instapundit.

The big Afghanistan lesson is walk away after you're out of office: "The American and Iraqi governments announced Friday a phasing down of Combined Joint Task Force — Operation Inherent Resolve, a U.S.-led military operation to counter the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria." Bilateral deal or blame to follow?

More on the Big booms: "Beirut has been rocked by huge explosions, with Israel confirming that it carried out airstrikes against Hezbollah’s main military headquarters in the Lebanese capital." I've certainly had a lot of updates to my latest Last Hamas War post that reflects Israel's shift to focusing on Hezbollah.

I'm reasonably sure Iran is checking to see if their bunkers are built to the same standards: "The Israeli military said on Saturday Israel is on high alert for a broader conflict after it claimed to have killed Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut[.]" Israel hopes Hezbollah will change course.

Can Lebanon throw off Hezbollah power because "it is clear that Hezbollah’s power is built on a foundation of false morality and what can only be described as miserable impotence in the face of Israel"? 

In regard to Israel's intensified campaign against Hezbollah: "Israel is meting out long-delayed justice not just in its own name but ours, too. And for this generous dispensation, Israel gets nothing but grief from its supposed allies." Maybe Western "peace activists" will volunteer to be "human shields" in northern Israel.

For the Baltic Defense Line and Poland's Eastern Shield: "NATO members Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland will seek European Union funding to build a network of bunkers, barriers, distribution lines and military warehouses along their borders with Russia and Belarus, Estonia’s officials said Saturday."

This offends them? "The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) strongly condemned on September 28 Israel’s 'political assassination' of Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah." It is unclear if American campus activists are more or less upset than the Russians. I say rot in Hell.

Uh oh: "Nigeria is suffering multiple economic, political and security issues." Even foreign companies that kept the oil flowing have left because it's just not worth it any more. Islamists, tribes, and gangs all add to the cacophony of corruption and chaos.

An unexpected source for red lining my pucker factor: "An adverse combination of events has led to a severe shortage of aircraft maintainers for the U.S. military and commercial aviation. ... It may take up to a decade for military and commercial aviation to recruit and train their way out of the current shortages."