My latest Substack post on The Dignified Rant: Evolved is here.
I have a new article in Army magazine calling for recruiting European NATO maneuver battalions to flesh out combat brigades that have a backbone of American troops.
I worry a country might believe an enemy inflicted the damage prior to a nuclear first strike: "Scientists discover that interplanetary shocks that strike Earth’s magnetic field head-on cause more powerful ground-level electric currents, threatening pipelines and submarine cables." Tip to Instapundit.
This seems too cruel even for North Korea: "North Korea executed 30 middle schoolers for watching South Korean dramas, according to reports." But I won't say the accusation is ridiculous.
Controversial? "Finnish lawmakers on Friday narrowly approved a controversial bill that will allow border guards to turn away third-country migrants attempting to enter from neighboring Russia and reject their asylum applications because Helsinki says Moscow is orchestrating an influx of migrants to the border."
Trained journalists belatedly report obvious war crimes by Hamas that: "[hides] under residential neighborhoods, storing their weapons in miles of tunnels and in houses, mosques, sofas — even a child’s bedroom — blurring the boundary between civilians and combatants." Via Instapundit.
"Trump-proofing" NATO aid to Ukraine misses the target: "I think Biden is accidentally supporting Ukraine. I think Biden was told Ukraine would lose fast. ... The [anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons] would be a relatively cheap way for Biden to show resolve after needlessly losing Afghanistan."
China has a military facility in Cambodia: "With the months-long presence of Chinese warships at Cambodia’s Ream naval base and a major bilateral military exercise there in May, China’s newest overseas military facility appears to be up and running[.]"
I assume most of this equipment will find its way to Ukraine: "One of the largest military bases in the U.S. is conducting a massive housecleaning of redundant and outdated military gear and hardware."
Hmmm: "Direct ties between senior U.S. and Chinese military leaders have been restored following a rough patch last year when a Chinese spy balloon overflew the United States, President Joe Biden told reporters on Thursday." As long as the ties remain at high levels, I won't object.
Why the Army can't get enough recruits: "the military, particularly the army, is undergoing a period of mandatory political indoctrination[.] ... in 2018 70 percent [of healthy men aged 18-35] saw the military as very trustworthy. In late 2023 that had fallen to 46 percent. This is a dangerous decline." You don't say.
Russian territory isn't a sanctuary: "Soldiers on the front lines say the [Western arms] deliveries are beginning to make a difference – especially since they can now use the arsenal to strike across the border." Russia will adapt. Russia's losses from the strikes will go down but its military will be less efficient.
Matt Taibbi on the normalization of murder. In the long run I'm confident. In the short run, people are hate-filled nuts. Excuse an out-of-my lane entry on the assassination attempt on Trump, but to quote Biden, it is a "big fucking deal." Tip to Instapundit.
The idea that Russia is not a threat because just Europe has a larger GDP than Russia is wrong. Japan had a GDP no more than 1/8 of America's the morning of December 7, 1941. It thought its will to win was greater. Putin clearly feels the same way about outlasting NATO in Ukraine. Even a war we win is bloody.
Iran's election masks trouble: "Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s increasingly tenuous grip on power is evident as he navigates a regime riddled with internal strife, economic challenges and a society that has rejected his regime in its entirety." Fingers crossed. Don't save the mullahs as Obama did.
Russia and Ukraine both use mercenaries. But many of Ukraine's are more ... interesting ... in their potential.
I fear this Army briefing on potential threats to base security was a feature rather than a bug when it "conflated mainstream lobbying groups, partisan organizations and non-violent political activism with terror groups such as the Islamic State and the Ku Klux Klan." Gosh! The Army has a recruiting problem?
Anchors Sailors aweigh away: "The U.S. Navy continues its push for unmanned systems with a new RFI
published last month, seeking information on the potential procurement
of seven MUSVs within the next two years, marking a shift in U.S. Navy
interest in the MUSV platform and [a short time line]."
I'd have more sympathy, but Pakistan supports "tame" jihadis to attack India and backed the Taliban: "A suicide bomber detonated his explosives-laden vehicle and other insurgents opened fire near the outer wall of a military facility in northwestern Pakistan early Monday, killing at least four soldiers. ..."
I'm told that Israel fell into a Hamas-set trap by invading Gaza. Wait. What? "The CIA has assessed that the leader of Hamas in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, is coming under increased pressure from his own military commanders to accept a ceasefire deal and end the war with Israel[.]"
If we aren't going to try to win the Horn of Africa naval war, I guess it's good the Navy is learning from the Houthi about defending against aerial threats.
Fingers crossed: "India unveiled a prototype Zorawar light tank this month, as defense officials seek nimbler armored fighting vehicles suitable for the mountainous terrain along the border with China, where violence broke out in mid-2020."
Huh: "[The Army] seeks to significantly reduce munition costs and enhance expeditionary utility by developing a 155-mm artillery cannon-based air defense system capable of firing Hypervelocity projectiles (HVP)s, integrated into a wheeled platform[.]"
Sucks to be Russia: "Armenia on Monday launched joint military drills with the United States, a move that reflects its leader’s efforts to forge closer ties with the U.S. and other Western allies as the country’s relations with old ally Russia sour."
INDOPACOM logistics need to expand beyond Northeast Asia: "U.S. troops practiced their ability to operate with Malaysian and Australian forces along the western coastline of Borneo, facing the contested South China Sea."
Air defense: "Norwegian defense firm Kongsberg has regularly developed and sold lots of innovative weapons. The latest is NOMAD, a 29-ton self-propelled tracked air defense system vehicle that complements the older stationery or towed NASAMS system." Is stealth and altitude the only answer?
Russia sent the garrisons to Ukraine: "The departed Northern Fleet ground security force troops have not been replaced. The Northern Fleet had to improvise a security force from naval personnel and some local civilian watchmen." I guess Putin doesn't think NATO is poised to pounce, eh?
Drone defense: "The service is looking for new technologies to help 'every' Marine defend against unmanned aerial systems." Every Marine? That's why I want fighter drones on combat air patrol over our infantry. But whatever. Maybe the Marines don't anticipate close combat these days.
About time: "The electricity grid operators of the three Baltic countries on Tuesday officially notified Russia and Belarus that they will exit a 2001 agreement that has kept Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania connected to an electricity transmission system controlled by Moscow." Now end your Russian rail gauge.
Hmmm: "China is putting great effort into developing its soldiers’ ability to operate in high-altitude and cold environments, increasing its military capacity relative to India." India is pivoting north. But it may not be enough. Will India be compelled to escalate at sea?
Trump rightly wants Taiwan to pay more for its own defense. And: "Trump also accused Taiwan of sinking the U.S. semiconductor sector, signaling he wants a more transactional approach to shielding the island from China." Done! Seriously, Taiwan needs to prepare like its life depends on it.
Good: "For the Air Force, Warrant Officers Will Be a Critical Link in Digital War with China[.]" The Air Force restored warrant officers classes after over a half century absence. They focus on skills and not on broader leadership. Now do pilots.
Not just an American issue: "German aid to Ukraine will be cut to 4 billion euros ($4.35 billion) in 2025 from around 8 billion euros in 2024[.]" Germany wants Ukraine to rely more on money from proceeds from frozen Russian assets seized by the G7 nations. Which is broadly a means I raised.
Ah, intelligence agencies: "[Here's] the intel community’s quadrennial hysteria about Kremlin online activity
aimed at U.S. voters. This activity is so microscopic amid the
social-media deluge that the only people who notice it are the CIA and
NSA nerds who ferret it out." Beware the micro-aggression.
Rather than defuse incidents I imagine China will use the "hot line" to demand surrender: "A recently signed agreement will open a direct line of communication between the presidential offices of China and the Philippines[.]"
Six more were promised for Kenya: "Two UH-1 Huey military choppers arrived in the African nation earlier this month and are now being assembled by a specialized team of US Air Force technicians in the Embakasi Garrison hangar in Nairobi."
China extends its reach to the Western Hemisphere.
Interesting: "Cyprus' defense minister said Wednesday that plans are in motion to build a major naval base on the east Mediterranean island nation's southern coast capable of hosting large ships from European Union countries and other nations[.]" And get back to me when Cyprus talks about an air base.
Peak China? "What most concerns Chinese is the state of the economy, which lately has not been performing up to expectations. China is still dealing with a housing bubble debt crisis, rising unemployment and inflation and continued slowing of economic growth." As I expected.
Russia has its fifth Yasen-class SSGN: "This submarine was built at the Sevmash shipyard near the port city of Severodvinsk on the White Sea. This is the only shipyard in Russia building nuclear powered submarines. [Yasen is] the Russian answer to the American Virginia class."
And yet the "ramped up" protection Trump was given was insufficient to prevent an amateur assassination attempt: "The Biden administration obtained intelligence in recent weeks about an Iranian assassination plot against former President Donald Trump[.]" Sounds like grounds to sink Iran's navy. Via Instapundit.
Sweden arms up to be NATO-worthy: "The commander of the Swedish Air Force, Maj. Gen. Jonas Wikman, has led the flying force since December 2022, overseeing the integration efforts of Sweden into NATO’s deterrence and defense posture since joining the alliance in March." That was my requirement.
The program expands to Sweden: "Under the National Guard’s State Partnership Program, New York and Swedish troops will engage in activities ranging from training exercises and personnel exchanges to disaster response work."
INDOPACOM will get Joint Fires Network next year that rapidly sorts out what weapon shoots each enemy target. This should prevent leaving targets alone while some targets are hit with multiple strikes. I believe Israel has used such a system successfully. Although in a small and less challenging environment.
Italy's carrier is sailing and exercising in China's shadow. In principle I'd prefer Italy to focus on Europe. But Russia's navy isn't going to do more than die quickly there, these days. So what the heck, I guess. For now.
Bad idea jeans: "Europe and the United States can offset that advantage by creating sanctuary space for Ukrainian forces in NATO countries." The answer to Russia's sanctuary is to let Ukraine strike Russian soil with Western weapons--not to taunt Russia by giving Ukraine's military sanctuary in NATO states.
Yawn: "Since the 1990s North Korea has been trying to design and build a working SSB along with a functional SLBM to launch from their SSB. [SOP] in North Korea is that there are usually decades of slow progress followed by several failed tests before there is actually some sort of success."
Seriously, doesn't the bizarre failure of the Secret Service to protect Trump encourage foreign enemies to have a go at our president? Heads should figuratively roll in DHS and USSS. How is this acceptable even for sick individuals lamenting the good outcome? Do they think their candidate will never win again?
The war will change but it won't end: "The Israelis realize the external Hamas support will revive Hamas military power if given time. The new Israeli strategy seeks to prevent that from happening in Gaza and other Palestinian territories."
Intended to supply the Second Thomas Shoal outpost? "A Philippine Marine Corps unit focused on securing sea lines of communication – including those in the South China Sea – is now operational in the force’s latest modernization effort to reorient itself from internal to external security operations."
Are we really going to blow this--again--and require Iraq War 3.0? "The Islamic State group carried out more attacks in the first half of 2024 in Iraq and Syria than it did in all of 2023, officials at U.S. Central Command said[.]" Don't think the war on Islamist terror is over just because we are complacent.
Britain's "hollow" military: "The country’s former chief of the general staff, Patrick Sanders, has repeatedly warned that defense cuts risk leaving the U.K. unprepared for war and lacking the capability to launch operations such as the 2003 invasion of southern Iraq." Britain guessed wrong about the threat.
I can't say whether the Air Force culture needs a "reboot" to actively pursue victory. Perhaps it does, though. But complaining that it was just a "critical enabler" seems to imply supporting ground forces is a diversion. I worry that a reboot to win can easily become a "victory through air power" culture.
One defeat in the loss of the Sahel: "U.S. troops just withdrew from Niger’s Air Base 101—the latest phase in an ongoing complete evacuation of U.S. forces that began following a coup in the African nation one year ago." France should have taken the lead here. Because AFRICOM has limits for acting.
South Korea must grow up and defend itself? WTAF? We used to have a corps on the DMZ and now we have a brigade in reserve. South Korea is arming Europe with its advanced defense industry. South Korea has F-35s. And a new blue water navy to help resist China! FFS, what more should South Korea do??!!
You don't want to be the last to claim your interest in the South China Sea: "Vietnam has filed a claim with the United Nations for an extended continental shelf (ECS) in the South China Sea, a month after regional neighbour the Philippines made a similar move, Vietnam's foreign ministry said on Thursday."
Huh: "Almost two and half years into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow’s war machine still runs on energy revenues[.]" Maybe the West should be drilling and fracking fossil fuels and building nuclear plants rather than blindly and prematurely pursuing the unicorn of cheap, reliable green energy.
Hear, hear. Reward good policy! "Europe is finally getting serious about defense, and should receive more, not less, transatlantic investment and engagement, the top U.S. commander in the region said Thursday." Leading from behind is an oxymoron with unintended consequences.
It is true that Taiwan is improving its defenses: "Kuoyu Chiao, the deputy head of the North America department in Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry, told reporters at a press briefing on Thursday that defense spending was at 2.5 percent of gross domestic product[.]" But it isn't enough given the threat.
SOUTHCOM: "The US should embark on a 'Marshall Plan' for Western Hemisphere nations still struggling to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic if it wants to keep Russian, and especially Chinese, influence in check in the region[.]" To be fair, SOUTHCOM has more chance of that than military assets.
Encouraging allies in INDOPACOM: "The [American aid] package includes $1.2 billion for Taipei, $500 million for Manila and around $300 million to spread around other partners, such as Vietnam, parts of South Asia and island nations in the Pacific."
China squeezes desperate Russia for cheap energy: "China is making the most of it. It means a major shift in Russia-China relations with China becoming the dominant partner. The new boss is not the same as the old boss and Russia has to get used to it." That's how a master treats a vassal. Also, "becoming"?
Huh: "In a major boost to its hypersonic might to challenge U.S. maritime dominance, China’s People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has claimed to equip its Soviet-era nuclear-capable Xi’an H-6K bombers with four modern YJ-21 hypersonic missiles for the first time." Nah. It'll be fine.
Cook 'em: "The US and Japan are planning to collaborate on the development of high-powered microwave weapons to defend against hostile drones."
The issue of "Trump-proofing" aid to Ukraine is fascinating. While I want the next president to help Ukraine win, the media enthusiasm for hamstringing the next elected president with past policies--not treaties--is anti-democracy. The media didn't cheer Obama-proofing Iraq. Or Biden-proofing Afghanistan.
Ukraine is refurbishing ammunition once destined for disposal: "it had returned a 'significant amount of ammunition of various calibres' which had been 'transferred to enterprises for disposal as surplus'." North Korea didn't refurbish what it sold to Russia. Russia didn't care.
Optimist that I am, I should probably look at the American effort to get a post-Last Hamas War government and security force an improvement over the once-popular notion that a drive-by shooting of a bad regime was enough to let the locals magically create tranquility without our destabilizing presence.
Some perspective on the FPV drone craze: "Since the war began, artillery has proved so lethal that it has caused more than 80% of casualties on both sides, according to estimates by Ukrainian military commanders." Drones are part of a complete breakfast, as the expression goes.
Oopsy: "In the years between Russia’s 2014 seizure of Crimea and its 2022 invasion, for example, repeated warnings from top NATO commanders and from officials who operated or supervised U.S. munitions plants went largely unheeded." To be fair, we were on a break from reality.
Question: "Can Ursula von der Leyen save Europe? " By "Europe" they mean political Europe. We should sustain geographic Europe by opposing the European Union. As for the question, LOL!!!! That's a "no".
Even if valid, conflating a counteroffensive after October 7, 2023 rape/slaughter invasion is just sick: "The International Court of Justice (ICJ) said Israel should stop settlement activity in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem and end its 'illegal' occupation of those areas and the Gaza Strip as soon as possible."
WTAF: "In Ukraine ... dead Russian soldiers are found alongside their 1890s vintage Mosin-Nagant rifles. Since over 39 million of these rifles were produced between 1891 and 1973, millions of them are still in use and many are being issued to Russian soldiers sent to Ukraine."
Huh: "[The Navy aircraft carrier] Stennis is undergoing the midlife [refueling and complex overhaul] but has encountered problems that will extend the midlife process 14 months. Rather than taking about four and a half years, it will take five and a half years." I was slightly too pessimistic. As of now.
This shows that Russian troops aren't in the war for the duration: "The Kremlin is reportedly concerned about the long-term social and political implications of Russian veterans returning from the war in Ukraine." Recruiting must replace casualties and discharged troops. Will Putin mobilize those "reserves?"
FFS: "Executive Order 14057 justifies the Department of Defense’s (DOD) Plan to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions as necessary to counteract the existential threat of climate change ... by achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2045." So many substitutes for victory. It's starting to worry me.
Huh: "Based on the currently limited reach of the Navy’s air wings, the carrier’s best use may be as a decoy force." I guess we have the answer to my question. Note that I warned the Navy not to fall for a similar ruse by the Chinese. I can't see sacrificing thousands of American crew as a decoy.
Problem. Solution. I'm outside observing so it is hard to fully judge. But warning alarms are sounding.
Yeah: "For at least the last half-century, technology enthusiasts have been heralding an imminent revolution in warfare wrought by long-range precision weapons and sensors. We are still waiting. Revolutions in warfare are rare." I have concerns about the direction of the Marine Corps.
Uh oh: "US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated on July 19 that Iran has reduced its nuclear breakout time to one to two weeks." I worry that Iran will have purchased nukes before it can make them.
China: "in recent years, as the economy began slowing, social discontent began rising. So far this hasn’t burst into open protest. but the eruption of civil unrest during the Covid lockdowns shows just how difficult it can be to maintain social order in a country of over one billion people."
Government Accountability Office report on Army modernization: "the Army had fielded six new priority equipment efforts as of November 2023, with ten more scheduled over the next 2 years[:]"
Lukashenko is both a tyrant of Belarus and a vassal of Russia. Can he survive? Hey, maybe he survives by cutting out the middle man Putin and becoming a vassal of China to get Xi's protection.
Doing: "According to an Israel Defense Forces statement, 'A short while ago, IDF fighter jets struck military targets of the Houthi terrorist regime in the area of the Al Hudaydah Port in Yemen in response to the hundreds of attacks carried out against the State of Israel in recent months.'" What America won't do.
Sign of war or means to deter it? "Several European nations have reintroduced or expanded compulsory military service amid Moscow’s mounting threat, part of a range of policies aimed at boosting defenses that are likely to be scaled up even further."
I assumed the NATO number was both aspirational and heavily reliant on naval and air forces: "NATO is struggling to meet its new goal of having 300,000 personnel ready to be activated within one month and another half a million available within six months[.]"
Libya, where the drive-by NATO shooting of Khadaffi didn't allow locals to sort out their problems peacefully without America's "destabilizing" presence--even thirteen years later. Maybe it's them and not us, eh?