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Sunday, March 10, 2024

Weekend Data Dump

Iran's Potemkin Weapons announcements. Of course, some work and are put into production.

The West has naval superiority over Russia, so the West should "use naval power to scare Moscow into allocating its scarce resources to defending its huge coastlines rather than invading neighbors." True. But the other side of the coin is that Western navies diverted scarce resources from needed land power.

Not Banana Republicy at all. Via Instapundit.

Returned to duty: "The Pentagon will lift the ban on flights by the grounded V-22 Osprey next week[.]"

South Korea is expanding military exercises with the United States. Good. I feared the cancellation during the pandemic would be the new normal with resumption considered by the our side to be "provocative" or some such rot.

And no battle damage to repair: "The guided-missile destroyer USS McCampbell returned to the 7th Fleet on Saturday after nearly four years of maintenance and upgrades in Oregon." Four years is shameful.

The Army wants to trade blood for machinery. That's just a more specific version of our goal to spend money rather than blood.

Ukraine has to ration ammo and political deadlock is keeping American aid suspended. Few armies collapse because they literally run out of ammo. They cope. For a while. But when armies have to spend blood instead of ammo to hold their own, that can break an army over time. A sense of urgency, please.

Is America's support for Israel "ruinous" for America's reputation in the Middle East? No. One, do we really want a reputation for being cool with the destruction of the Jewish people? And two, we've done fine with Arab governments. Arab lack of support for Hamas since 10/7 shows Gaza isn't the only issue.

Russia's T-14 Armata won't go to war. I wasn't worried about the tank.

Artillery isn't the only thing the Army downgraded in the belief the Air Force could handle the job: "An air defense battalion saw its Poland deployment extended by three months last week as the unit supports NATO defense in eastern Europe." That choice was fine when we chased jihadis. Now? Nope.

I never pretended to being more than a REMF. A reservist REMF. Well, maybe a bit above that as a "combat support" rather than "combat service support" soldier. But I've certainly understood war is "Endless tedium, a moment of terror—this is known to military analysts as 'temporal desynchrony.'"

Colorado (and other states) can't decide Trump is an insurrectionist under the 14th Amendment to keep him off the ballot. Now that their Guardian Councils are thwarted, will Democrats rely on the media to figuratively drag a corpse over the finish line (again)? The hysteria of our progressive "elites" is scary.

The Kremlin's claims that "Russia is or always has been interested in peace negotiations are very likely efforts to feign interest to prompt preemptive Western concessions regarding Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity and place the onus for negotiations on Ukraine and the West." Reject the ploy.

To be fair, Russia demonstrates its willingness to expand its borders by force: "A newly expanded NATO is launching major exercises with Nordic nations Finland, Sweden and Norway as the western security alliance seeks to demonstrate forces are prepared to defend its borders."

Last week I noted that after spending years (decades?) collecting H. Beam Piper books, I found his collected works on Kindle for 99 cents. I wasn't really whining about losing the thrill of  the hunt, skipping to the kill. I was happy to buy it all that cheaply. I could have chosen to hunt physical copies. 

I assume Iran is expanding its intimidation campaign: "Three Red Sea underwater cables providing internet and telecommunications around the world have been cut[.]" But just because Iran is the usual suspect isn't proof they're behind it.

This is old (2015) but it's new to me: "CBC News has learned that a Canadian military effort to formally create integrated forces with the United States for expeditionary operations included an even more ambitious option — a plan to fully integrate military forces[.]" Gotta say it makes sense.

Are you suggesting that coconuts sand dunes are migratory?

The Reaper's Uber. Tip to Instapundit. Don't give Justin Trudeau any ideas. 

Long ago I decided this was virtually all worthless. So I never wasted any time sorting trash like it made me an effing saint. A lot of people won't get that time back, eh? Oh, and the "success" rate for glass and paper says nothing about whether it makes any economic--or climate--sense.

Once the author wrote this, I was out: "Iraq War, launched in March 2003 and rationalized on another set of falsehoods and lies." There were no lies involved.

Allied Spirit 2024: "Soldiers in Europe this week kicked off a month-long, large-scale exercise with 6,500 participants focused on preparing a multinational brigade to defend NATO."

Airborne troops since 2018 only have to run 3 miles instead of 5 to graduate. Apparently the ability to run 5 miles isn't "relevant." Sure, scale back the requirements for our elite troops. What could possibly go wrong? 

Prove your innocence you deplorable, insurrectionist veterans.

Sea Baby drones. But what identifies the targets and safest routes to reach the target?

Exactly! "The fight to save the A-10 has never been about the airplane. It has always been about saving the capability and the institutional knowledge of the attack pilot community." It's a matter of trust.

Hamas hasn't read the Koran? So what? Is their murder and rape Mission Statement less awful for that? Do they just need a PowerPoint presentation to straighten them out? Face it, if the nutballs like Hamas win the Islamic civil war, the nutballs will define Islam

Food for thought. But sometimes I think analysts try too hard to impose rational templates to explain Hamas actions when in reality Hamas just wants to murder and rape Jews.

Putin's dancing bear: "Medvedev argued that the influence of sovereign great powers, like Russia, extends beyond their geographic borders, ... Medvedev repeated Russian President Vladimir Putin’s previous statement that 'Russia’s borders do not end anywhere.'" Hadrian's Wall would not be enough for Russia.

Not even making them walk in: "President Joe Biden has secretly flown hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants from Latin American airports to 43 U.S. cities." And they aren't counted in border statistics. Mass illegal immigration is bad. Why do Democrats hate American so much? Tip to Instapundit.

I really hate it when I see our military calling its service members "warriors". My understanding is that troops are superior to warriors because troops operate as a coherent fighting machine in contrast to warriors who fight as individuals--no matter how good a fighter each warrior might be. I want troops.

WaPo: Republicans are exploiting crime as an issue; and besides, America was founded on stolen land. FFS. The view dismisses crime and denies the agency of Native Americans who fought their own wars to control the land of others. You think you hate and distrust our media enough. You do not.

The China Coast Guard guards what the CCP says is China's: "'China's latest unprovoked acts of coercion and dangerous maneuvers' against Philippine ships en route to deliver supplies and fresh troops to the Philippine-occupied shoal 'put the lives of our people at risk and caused actual injury to Filipinos[.]'"

I've been looking forward to Biden's State of the Union address where he'll promise to finally beat Robert E. Lee and end the Confederate threat. Admit it, it's 50/50. 

Polls showing Trump with a broad lead for 2024 rely on polling registered--or God help us, all adults--rather than likely voters. Historically Republicans had the edge in likely voters. That is no longer true. Democrats demonized blue collar people and embraced the Whole Foods, college-educated demographic.

If you've seen a headline saying the U.S. is closing China's Houston consulate, it is clearly from July 2020. I noted the news back then.

Australia-Japan defense relationships appear ready to be "throttled up". Good. China would rather divide and conquer. Bilateral regional ties in areas of mutual interest that supplement defense ties to America work better than an Asian NATO.

Via Instapundit, " Biden will ask America ‘Whose side are you on?’ in State of the Union this week and accuse Trump of being with Putin[.]" Bold talk from someone whose base supports Hamas and thinks it hasn't killed and raped enough Jews

Maybe we reached Peak Wokeness in our military. I am an optimist. Although that's the VA and not the DOD. Still ...

Florida had best be prepared to ramp up bus shuttles to Democratic Party "sanctuary" cities.

Oh? "A group of House Democrats is making the case to President Biden that an Israeli invasion of Rafah could violate his requirement that U.S. military aid be used in accordance with international law[.]" I don't believe they have any idea what international law requires or doesn't require. Also, now do Hamas.

MQ-4C Triton: "The Navy is boosting its intelligence capabilities in Europe and Africa with a contingent operating its newest high-altitude surveillance drone recently deployed to Sicily." Good experience in littorals before heading to the coast of China, I imagine.

Assaulting rivers isn't the only reason to practice crossing rivers. Sometimes the enemy destroys the bridges on your line of supply.

So much for the NATO 2% of GDP objective: "Canadian leaders vow to be gentle in making defense-spending cuts[.]" I guess Canada's military is getting the MAID treatment. Gently, of course.

The Maldives, for one, welcomes its new commie overlord: "Maldives on Tuesday said China will provide it with “military assistance,” in the latest sign that the Indian Ocean archipelago’s pro-China shift is well under way following the election of President Mohamed Muizzu last year."

The F**k-Up Fairy has been busy: "The war in Ukraine is not just an economic crisis for Russia, but a demographic and political one as well."

Air-to-air combat and Turkey's effort to build its own AESA radar

The Guardian Council of the Democratic Party is worried. Tip to Instapundit.

Yeah: "While Russian President Vladimir Putin hoped to fracture NATO and drive the United States from Europe, he has achieved the opposite." I've noted that Putin has screwed the pooch ... so far. But NATO has to help Ukraine win this war to avoid ultimately giving Putin a win.

I'm not exactly against the Army killing ships. Before the Army was a power projection force it defended our coasts. But does it detract from the Army's core competency? Can't the Marines and NECC do the job? And why use a new term, "fortress fleet"? We turned the A2/AD tables on China. I hate term churn.

India activates Plan B: "India on Wednesday opened a new naval base on its Indian Ocean island close to the Maldives, as ties with Male [NOTE: The Maldives] remain tense and New Delhi jostles anew with China for influence in the region." 

Because Albania's biggest problem is lack of electric bus service. I'm cynical but I bet this enhances corruption in the country.

Democrats like to say anti-Semitic Nazism is descending on Red States. But it always seems to land in Blue entities. Tip to Instapundit.

This is good: "Ukraine destroyed the Project 22160 Sergei Kotov large patrol ship of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) off the coast of the Kerch Strait on the night of March 4-5." But I assume Ukraine did not generate the targeting data and the path to reaching the attack site

Corruption is (reportedly) amazing in Russia: "Russian forces are reportedly operating a 'black market' to sell Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs), including to Russian paramilitary groups that may be conducting their own POW exchanges with Ukraine."

Good hunting: "The army chiefs of military-ruled Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso on Wednesday announced the creation of a joint force to battle long-running jihadist rebellions raging in their countries." Killing jihadis isn't the only requirement. But it's certainly a prerequisite to success. Make more good jihadis.

Making it illegal to send a state's National Guard abroad unless Congress declares war fails to appreciate the legal complexity and unintended consequences of getting an old-fashioned declaration of war.

Nice: "With Sweden poised to officially join NATO in the next few days, the U.S. Air Force celebrated March 6 with a rare double bomber flyover of a B-52 Stratofortress and a B-1 Lancer over Stockholm, accompanied by Swedish Air Force Gripens." Targets would require flying across Finland.

Yikes: "A Russian missile struck near Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s motorcade Wednesday in the city of Odesa." The Greek prime minister was with him. Chance or breakdown in security?

San Francisco voters are so upset that crime is now rampant that they approved police-state public surveillance measures. I suspect they will lose freedoms--to the government rather than criminals--without gaining security from criminals. Tip to Instapundit.

South Koreans overwhelmingly want nukes: "The fear is this: That a U.S. president would hesitate to use nuclear weapons to defend the South from a North Korean attack knowing that Pyongyang could kill millions of Americans with atomic retaliation." That's the basic flaw of extended deterrence.

War: "A Houthi missile strike on a commercial vessel killed three people and injured several others on Monday, marking the first time that the Iran-backed rebels have caused civilian fatalities since beginning their attacks on international shipping lanes." We defeated Iran in a similar 1980s fight. Why not now?

Western forces should be able to avoid the fate of Russia's fleet at the hands of surface drones: "US and NATO navies are more capable and more competent than their Russian counterparts[.]" Also, we'd do a better job fighting the surveillance and targeting assets that direct the suicide USVs.

Jamming the square network-centric peg into the round platform-centric hole: "Sophisticated networking and communications capabilities derived from the U.S. Navy’s hush-hush Project Overmatch are deployed on at least three carrier strike groups[.]" Sigh. Extend the logic, please. Quantity is hundreds--not three.

Will China's escalating subliminal war against the Philippines trigger the U.S.-Philippines defense pact? Well, initially we could quietly provide surveillance and targeting data to help the Philippines hit the Chinese vessels. Would China risk escalating to direct China-U.S. combat?

When you strike a king, ... annoy him? "[Biden] is just interventionist enough to annoy our enemies, but not sufficiently robust to establish escalation dominance against them." Ah, Smart Diplomacy®! 

No! Way! "Brussels Signal has received a leaked document that indicates UNRWA – the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East – fears 'munitions' have been stored on its premises in Gaza by armed groups." The logistics arm of hate.

I'm so old I remember when Trump's offer to send troops to defeat Antifa/BLM rioters was fascistic: "New York Gov. Kathy Hochul ordered the New York National Guard to begin patrolling the NYC subway system Wednesday with an emphasis on finding illegal weapons among riders." Police lost control. Why?



Democrats say statistics prove crime is down and people are wrong to complain. But over the last four years, Democrats made felonies misdemeanors; refused to arrest criminals; and refused to prosecute criminals when arrested. So naturally, the statistics lie. As intended.

Expose the aggressor: "The Philippines adopted a strategy last year of exposing China’s increasingly assertive actions in the disputed sea by embedding journalists on its coast guard patrol ships." That's been my advice for a long time. Fight an information war.

What do you expect when his reaction to every criminal use of a firearm is to restrict access by law-abiding people? "The nation’s gun-buying binge remained robust last month amid the Biden administration’s latest plans to cut sales and intimidate customers." Via Instapundit. 

Russia pretends it has a long-term edge. Yet it is behaving like it only has a window of opportunity to defeat Ukraine. Russia's army didn't collapse after its fall 2022 nadir. But Ukraine and the West gave Russia precious time. I suspect Russia's army is closer to collapse--somewhere--than we now believe.

If America ruined its reputation in the Arab world by backing Israel in Gaza, why hasn't the Arab world declared Russia enemy number one for directly killing Arabs? "Syrian leader Bashar Assad ... praised the work of Russian President Vladimir Putin." Iran has killed a lot, too.

Israel likes the F-35, but "Israeli engineers also confirmed fears that the F-35 is eminently hackable." That's been a worry of mine for a long time

Because assaulting an American embassy isn't just for Iranians and Sunni jihadis: "The United States is considering deploying an elite Marine security team to Haiti because of a deteriorating security situation there, according to a defense official." That would look bad in an election year, especially.

New poll: "As the U.S. navigates involvement in the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, few Americans want the country to take a more active role in solving the world’s problems[.]" For Ukraine and Gaza, if America supports the Ukrainians and Israelis defeat our common enemies, we won't need a more active roll.

Tell me the Navy is desperate for hulls without telling me the Navy is desperate for hulls: "This year the U.S. Navy decided to reverse its plan to quickly discard its remaining LCS (Littoral Combat Ships) and instead upgrade many of them."

If that speed of identifying targets works in the field, wow: "Soldiers found targets in a tiny fraction of the normal time by streamlining procedures and speeding up data processing during a recent experiment, Army officials said Tuesday. "

I don't throw panties at small UAVs, but we should use them: "When it comes to small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) for reconnaissance and strike at the squad to battalion level, the United States is behind the curve, partly due to self-imposed bureaucracy and institutional inertia[.]" And defeat them (in Army).

It doesn't matter if they follow "true" Islam. If the nutballs prevail, they define Islam this way: "Islamic extremists have abducted at least 200 people who were out searching for firewood, mostly women and children displaced by violence in northeastern Nigeria[.]" Maybe they just want a port of their own.

People once believed Twitter could kill kings. Well, 2016 convinced authorities that Twitter is better used to kill dissent. Freedom is fragile. I'm an optimist. But how long before the reaction kicks in? How long will it take to repair the damage? And will the Fahrenheit 451 thugs pay a price? Via Instapundit.

Yeah, I noticed the SOTU address "fiery" spin. A Republican doing the same thing would have been accused of being an arsonist. Our malevolent mediocrity knows his Toobin-like base demands more Insurrection Porn. You think you hate and distrust the media enough. You do not.

Oh? "In a high-profile televised address, U.S. President Joe Biden ripped his likely Republican challenger Donald Trump for 'bowing down' to Russian President Vladimir Putin[.]" Let's review who is in thrall to Putin, shall we?

Diversity wasn't inherently a strength, apparently: "Nine human species walked the Earth 300,000 years ago. Now there is just one." Tip to Instapundit.

WTAF: "The U.S. Navy has finally started repair work on an SSN (nuclear attack submarine) that returned damaged from its last time at sea nine years ago." There's no way we'll sustain a fleet for a long sea war, is there? Congress spends money we don't have on any stupid woke idea. But shipyards? Nah. It'll be fine.

I hope Strategypage is right: "Currently the larger number of Chinese warships provides more targets for American subs and carriers and not enough threat to those subs and carriers."

I assume the CIA helps Ukraine target the Russians: "The CIA continues to aid Ukraine ... by providing them with information the CIA has obtained on Russian operations as well as real-time video of Russian military operations in Ukraine [using] low-earth orbit photo and electronic intelligence satellites."

Any Code Pink hag doing something similar would be praised for their brave and patriotic dissent. You know that's true. 

Via Instapundit, John Kerry said "if Russia has the ability to wage a war illegally and invade another country, they ought to be able to find the effort to be responsible on the climate issue." The author can't imagine anybody else thinking that way. I can think of someone

Has the West ceded control of the Black Sea? No. I mean, the Montreux Convention limits non-Black Sea country naval presence. But in war between NATO and Russia it would be a Turkey Shoot. Ukraine's hunt for Russian warships is a hint of what NATO could do. But a coalition of the hungry might be in order.

Biden is orchestrating an invasion across America's southern border. Biden is clearly refusing to defend the border. It is an invasion, in a way, despite being by civilians in large numbers. And if that doesn't represent an invasion, why do progressives hate Columbus so much?

Is Russia really interested in putting nukes in space to destroy satellites in large numbers? Maybe. A simpler explanation encompasses ridiculous notions like Poseidon.

We should hunt the Houthi and not let them build up: "More than a dozen Houthi drones were shot down on Saturday after the Iran-backed Yemeni rebels tried to launch a 'large-scale' [37 drones] attack on an American commercial ship and US war destroyers." Will we get serious only after Navy sailors die?

Illegal immigrant edition: What could possibly go wrong? "Criminals with ties to MS-13 and other gangs are selling fake green cards and social security cards to migrants on street corners in Queens — a dangerous security threat as rogue newcomers pour into the Big Apple." Tip to Instapundit.

Aid trickles in: "The Netherlands is sending Ukraine nine [Czech-made] DITA truck-mounted 155mm artillery systems."

Russia's S-400 air defense system has shown weaknesses in the Winter War of 2022. So Russia introduced the S-500. Will it be deployed in the war zone? And then a discussion of some other random missiles. 

What is the Pope's major malfunction? "Pope Francis said in an interview that Ukraine, facing a possible defeat, should have the courage to negotiate an end to the war with Russia and not be ashamed to sit at the same table to carry out peace talks." Was he dropped on his head as a young cardinal?

Yes, the standard is which side is better--and we're undermining Ukraine: "The Russian military isn't the formidable juggernaut it was once thought to be, but without strong defenses and key support, Ukraine is dangerously vulnerable to a force that can still inflict serious damage, an expert is warning."

To be fair, the committee was a wag-the-dog pageant: "Former Rep. Liz Cheney’s January 6 Committee suppressed evidence that President Donald Trump pushed for 10,000 National Guard troops to protect the nation’s capital[.]" Trump and Democrats implicitly expected Antifa violence. Via Instapundit.