Why did Iran seemingly throw away the Biden administration's clear effort to revive the horrible 2015 Iran nuclear deal by unleashing Hamas on Israel? Will Smart Diplomacy® achieve its most horrific result yet?
The 2015 Iran nuclear deal wasn't even a written deal. And horrifyingly enough, the 2015 Iran nuclear deal was "approved" by a Congress content to rubber stamp such a major diplomatic engagement. Hell, Obama didn't even fully follow the law that created the farcical "approval" process. But through a loophole, it argued that there are no secret agreements--just documents we can't see.
Iran has seemed on the cusp of getting nuclear weapons even as Biden has tried to revive the Obama policy of strengthening Iran--including the acquisition of nuclear weapons--to get a "balanced stability" in the Middle East. Because these Democrats in power love mullah-run Iran. And they have long clung to the bizarre belief that a nuclear-armed Iran is a source of stability. Yes, the 2015 Iran nuclear deal was designed to help Iran get nuclear weapons. The Iran-Democrat collusion on that is astounding. Rather than support our allies, our enemy Iran was to be strengthened.
The Biden administration was even conducting a campaign to pretend Biden's resolve was compelling Iran to succumb to our Smart Diplomacy, with the result that Iran would get the bomb. Sadly, the basis of the original deal seemed doomed to be repeated:
Well of course a deal is possible! Duh. All Iran has to do is pretend to end their drive for nuclear weapons and all we have to do is pretend to believe Iran. Simple, no?
Unfortunately, the original deal may have worked all too well. By giving up to 15 years of shielding Iran from attack, it enabled Iranian cheating by giving Iran benefits up front and encouraging Western caving in to Iranian threats to leave the deal if called on their cheating. The incentives to ignore cheating were clear.
And the deal actually helped Iran with basic nuclear technology, as I noted when I first looked at the nuclear deal. God help us, but Obama expected a nuclear-armed, mullah-run Iran to become a responsible regional power. It's a miracle Iran doesn't have nukes yet. They don't have nukes now, right??!!
And then, seemingly out of nowhere, Iran's hand puppet Hamas brutally started a bloody war with Israel. Why? Why now? Did Iran think even the compliant and friendly Biden administration with all its Obama staffers who disdain Israeli defense (and survival) worries would accept the horrors of the Hamas slaughter and kidnapping raid? Did Iran think this could break Israel apart from Saudi Arabia without derailing the clear Biden path to Iranian nuclear weapons?
If we are lucky, Iran just wanted a little violence to allow Biden to "pressure" Iran into reining in its little pet psycho, Hamas. It would all be part of the theater production of "Dark Brandon" getting results to prove Biden was compelling Iran to agree to a new "tough" nuclear deal. Maybe Hamas exceeded Iran's expectations by orders of bloody magnitude. Maybe Iran is horrified that their nuclear deal will be collateral damage in this supposed charade. Maybe.
What if my view of an enrichment red herring is just a tiny fish in Iran's plan? The red herring to hide the real red herring? I keep saying we are fools to mistake fanaticism for stupidity. What if this is a "go big or go home" moment for Iran. Hell, maybe Hamas leadership is willingly letting Hamas be sacrificed for the greater goal the jihadis pine for.
God help us all, maybe Iran doesn't need a new deal no matter how good it is for Iran. Perhaps Iran now needs weeks or months of chaos to fatally distract Israel--with the most incentive to strike Iran--and America--with the most capability--away from Iran's last dash to putting nuclear missiles in its arsenal?
What if North Korea's rail activity to resupply Russia has hidden in that traffic a number of nuclear missiles that Iran has paid for? I've long considered North Korea a potentially fatal gap in efforts to stop Iran's nuclear drive. And what if Iran will use its new arms supply line to Russia to smuggle them back into Iran? Russia doesn't even have to know this. Bribes in broke Russia will go far, no?
It is being said that Israel was caught off guard by a failure of imagination to see the scale of what Hamas would do to Israel. Are we suffering a similar failure of imagination--perhaps self-inflicted as our intelligence agencies mistake Constitutionally protected dissent for domestic terrorism--to accept that Iran might be trying to do what its fanatical mullah rulers have long claimed it wants--destroy Israel?
Is this war in Gaza and Israel the bloodiest red herring the world has ever seen? Ah, Smart Diplomacy®! God help us all. A new bad Iran nuclear deal is starting to sound like a best-case scenario.
But I just have a really good imagination, right? I hope so.
UPDATE: Maybe Iran thinks sacrificing Hamas is worth it to delay a Saudi-Israeli alliance against Iran (I told you the Iranian-Saudi deal under China was no alliance):
The Hamas attack on Israel meant the end of one of Iran’s major paramilitary assets. The Israeli military is one of the best in the world and did not expect Hamas to self-destruct like this, killing as many Israelis as it could before Hamas was gone and their base in Gaza severely damaged. Iran may have ordered this in an effort to disrupt the recent alliance between Israel and the Gulf oil states against Iran.
But that is a fleeting benefit. I fear Iran is playing for bigger stakes. But my imagination is over-active, right??!!
UPDATE: It is possible Iran did not initiate the Hamas terror assault. Iran has built up Hamas, so it bears a lot of responsibility. But this war may reflect the riskiest problem of "leading from behind" from Tehran's perspective. It is possible that Iran is rushing to get into the parade to make the best of this.
That qualifies as the "optimistic" take. But we should be examining the worst case possibility, no?
UPDATE: Somebody else has a similar worry:
It’s an ominous prospect: The Islamic Republic of Iran may seek to exploit Israel’s preoccupation with the Gaza counteroffensive against Hamas to break out of its nuclear nonproliferation obligations.It would be more ominous if Iran wasn't exploiting this as much as it planned this preoccupation.
NOTE: The basic image was made from DALL-E.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
