If we don't stop Russia in Europe because we must face the "real" threat from China in Asia, that fails if China simply doesn't go to war for its objectives until Russia achieves its ultimate objectives. And then Russia would be strong enough to directly help China defeat the shrunken and shaken West. And if China has no intention of risking war with the West, this is a bonus free pass to the Russians based on an imminent threat that does not exist. Face it, some conservatives have decided to look for Mister Good War.
Via Instapundit, UNEP says that solar geoengineering is the only way to save the planet from climate change. "Saving" the planet--as if we understand enough to tweak one input without making things worse--will make this seem like a weapon against some countries in order to benefit other countries. Admit it. While some countries lose with higher temperatures, others benefit. And eventually whoever controls it will use it as a weapon.
Remember how Democrats said the so called racist "National Day of Hate" was coming? And now for something completely different:
I've read that Israel's drama to allow their parliament to overrule supreme court rulings is different than I've read here. My initial view was that this was a bad idea. But their court does not judge laws against a written constitution as our Supreme Court does. Instead it judges laws on whether the court thinks the laws are a good idea. And it has a wide web of veto power. This is no court as we know it, but a small body's legislative veto power. I don't know if it is a good idea, given that it has been this way for a long time. But I can't say it is a bad idea to change it.
If this doesn't change the months-long protests into revolution against the mullahs, what will? "A crisis over suspected poisonings targeting Iranian schoolgirls escalated Sunday as authorities acknowledged over 50 schools were struck in a wave of possible cases."
I will grant that this is unfair. And I keep reminding myself of this fact as I write about the Winter War of 2022: "It’s not exactly a sign of a healthy democratic discourse that it’s virtually impossible to ask a critical question about the United States’ role in the Ukraine-Russia conflict without being smeared as a Putin apologist or an 'isolationist.'" But all too often the so-called better alternatives to helping Ukraine defeat and reverse the immoral and dangerous Russian invasion amounts to "let the Wookie win."
Xi Jinping apparently doesn't think America is "distracted" by Russia's invasion of Ukraine: "Xi Jinping will hike military spending to its fastest pace in four years because of what China perceives to be escalating foreign threats."
The Osprey clutch problem. the V-22 is a very useful aircraft. But the innovative aircraft is seemingly a work in progress.
Norway is upgrading and expanding its tiny tank force. Norway does have a small border with the highly problematic Russia.
I wish we were as frank with our enemies in the region as we are with our friends. That might reassure friends a little more.
Yet another warning alarm going off as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine: "Army equipment issued from pre-positioned stock sites immediately after the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine did not meet maintenance standards[.]" We can very rapidly fly in troops to man ... nonworking weapons?
Dipping our toe in the F-16 waters: "Two Ukrainian pilots are in the U.S. undergoing an assessment to determine how long it could take to train them to fly attack aircraft, including F-16 fighter jets[.]" My related thoughts.
The Trojan Ship-to-Shore Chinese Crane: "While comparably well-made and inexpensive, they contain sophisticated sensors that can register and track the provenance and destination of containers, prompting concerns that China could capture information about materiel being shipped in or out of the country to support U.S. military operations around the world."
The Air Force still has a pilot shortage. No crisis is bad enough to abandon the whole "officer and a gentleman (or lady)" thing. But yes, actually flying in challenging training is something pilots actually like to do.
Giving European tanks to Ukraine isn't even complete. Sustaining them in combat is required, too.
Is Biden's policy of denying (F-16s, for example)--or gradually giving (tanks, for example)--Ukraine capabilities self-defeating? I guess it depends on whether or not dampening Russian threats to go nuclear if the West pushed capabilities too fast has been necessary. And of course, it depends on whether or not Ukraine could absorb and use those capabilities if they arrived faster. So maybe. But I can't say for sure.
Apparently this is controversial in some small circles: "The U.S. Air Force’s Air Mobility Command (AMC) recently made the decision to remove most of the markings and tail numbers from its refueling and cargo aircraft[.]" Should I be concerned? The claim that this is pointless for operational security seems contradicted by plane watcher concerns that transparency is reduced. If it is a problem for plane watchers why wouldn't it be a problem for enemies watching?
Is Iran ready to build a nuclear bomb? I'm not sure that's the key question. My question is whether Iran already has nuclear weapons before it can build the bomb. There is a danger thinking of attacking Iran's nuclear facilities as a "last resort" before being able to build the bomb if the enemy knows that is the trigger.
Is a protracted war in Ukraine in Russia's interest? I don't think a protracted war is generally in anybody's interest for any war. Unless you have no choice. Russia has no choice now as long as Putin seeks to win. But I don't assume this is necessarily an advantage for Russia. After all, Russia invaded big a year ago in the hopes of a rapid victory. And this despite all the Western analysts explaining how the "frozen conflict" in the Donbas after the 2014-2015 conquests was brilliantly in Russia's interest. I can't say the author's likely scenario for how the war ends is unreasonable, however. But it is far from clear that it is the most likely scenario.
Should America retain "irregular" warfare skills as it turns to great power conventional warfare training? Sure. But keep in mind that irregular warfare is very different from counter-insurgency warfare. Insurgents fight without uniforms, without trying to hold front lines, and hide among a supportive part of the population. Irregular warfare is essentially regular soldiers fighting like insurgents behind enemy lines
Good: "The US and Saudi Arabia are planning to kick off their first-ever experimental counter-drone exercise in the last week of March, Al-Monitor has learned." You remember this problem, right?
It would be nice if Ukraine has the reach to strike this Russian ship entering the Black Sea to bring what is believed to be ammunition to Russia. We will know before this post publishes, I imagine.
Despite the predictions that the American Century was being replaced by the Chinese Century, that isn't how it is working out (tip to Instapundit): "'China’s population is expected to peak at 1.4 billion in 2024/25 and then it will almost halve by the end of the century,' says Pushpin Singh, of the Centre for Economics and Business Research." Can I call 'em, or what (just Cntrl F "Chinese Threat" to get to the February 18, 2004 post within that recovered pre-Blogger February 2004 post of posts.)?
Apparently the federal government is letting the leftist terrorism slide to keep its powder dry for the crafty white supremacists who cleverly keep a low profile waiting for the right moment to unleash a wave of violence.
George Santos is not an admirable man. But he's not exactly a rare fin(D) in that area. Tip to Instapundit.
Russia's 3:1 population advantage isn't necessarily decisive, as Putin counts on. Agreed. But the author gets the 3:1 rule wrong.
When you start to wage total war, wage total war?
Have you noticed that not one zombie is vegetarian or vegan? It's all human or animal flesh, all the time. Not once do you hear "Kaaaalle!"
Becausereasonsshutup: "President Biden’s top spokesperson refused to comment Monday on why two Russian billionaires associated with first son Hunter Biden have escaped US sanctions over the year-old war in Ukraine." Tip to Instapundit.
So who is fragile? Forebears who truly struggled to overcome racism weep. Tip to Instapundit.
#WhySomaliaCan'tHaveNiceThings
Bye bye Akulas. And thanks for all the fish.
Al Shabaab jihadis counter-attacked and recaptured a base in Somalia.
AUKUS to get its road map: "The leaders of the United States, Australia and the United Kingdom are poised to gather next Monday to announce the plan for supplying Australia with nuclear submarines." Start soon. The path is three decades long. How will the post-Collins sub gap be filled?
When California addresses its corruption problem, it will be with legislation establishing equitable bribery levels based on the woke hierarchy of victimhood. So it goes in the California Corrupt Party (CCP) paradise. Where regulations are just for those who don't pay the bribe. Tip to Instapundit.
Huh. Tucker's J6 video selection is surely selective. By definition. Mere minutes out of tens of thousands of hours. But it shows that the Democrats were highly selective--with added music and sound effects for drama--in their show trial video presentations for more than two years. Neither perspective negates the other. Release all the footage to everyone. I'm sure defense attorneys would appreciate it.
A new Chechen problem is born: "The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on March 6 that Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov is actively recruiting DNR fighters into his units in an effort to increase his influence in occupied Donetsk Oblast. The Center noted that the Kremlin is becoming increasingly nervous because Kadyrov appears to be conserving his forces by only performing policing measures without participating in combat, while other Russian armed formations are suffering significant personnel losses."
Why is Europe still having an energy problem? China and India are buying more energy from Russia at discount rates. Aren't the former sources of energy for China and India who saw their energy exports replaced by Russian energy looking for new customers? I understand infrastructure wasn't in place. But this is a problem that time and money solves. It's been a year. Or did Europeans hold off on an early-war belief that Russia would win and things would get back to "normal" soon?
He's not the nuttiest fruitcake so far this year, at all. Tip to Instapundit.
Sod off, Hershey's. The fanatical activists will want all of us to choke that crap down.
Mock it all you will, but it is still a tracked twin-barreled 25mm anti-aircraft cannon that can shoot down drones. Admit it, if Ukraine did it our media would swoon at the innovation while under attack. [LATER: And right on cue: ingenuity!]
Iran has finally made some arrests for poisoning schoolgirls. Good.
Not even Hungary is friendly enough to Russia for Putin. Hungary seems to be hedging its early bet that Russia would win the war.
Presumed American CIA drones killed two al Qaeda terrorists in Yemen. More good jihadis.
I'll only worry when she says, "I'm fine": "Kim Yo Jong, the sister of North Korea's Supreme Leader Kim Jon-Un, said the nation was ready to take 'quick, overwhelming action' in response to US and South Korean joint military drills elsewhere on the peninsula." And now for something completely different:
The B-21 sounds awesome. But I worry it will allow us to ef up at the speed of light. Have I mentioned my concerns with our senior leadership? Also, I never heard about that 2007 incident when F-22 computer systems crashed when they crossed the International Date Line for the first time. WTF? I have worries about software-heavy networked systems. And I swear it isn't because I watched Battlestar Galactica. Both of them, actually.
I hadn't realized the Ukrainians were that bad: "During its offensives last year, Ukraine’s army largely attacked in company-sized formations." The Russians started the war at the battalion level and devolved to companies. We'll see if Ukraine scales up.
Ukraine's top commander hopes that with Western help he will "eventually have three new army corps at his disposal, each with six brigades, and each comprising more than 20,000 men." Those "corps" are really like quite large divisions. In the late Cold War our divisions could have as many as 18,000 troops. I don't know how many of the Ukrainian brigades per division are maneuver brigades.
I can understand why the leader of the democratic opposition to Lukashenko would like NATO to work to overthrow Lukashenko. But I'd rather not expand the war when I think we are winning inside Ukraine. Belarus can be Tomorrow NATO's problem. And it is.
Hmmm: "New intelligence reviewed by U.S. officials suggests that a pro-Ukraine
group - likely comprised of Ukrainians or Russians - attacked the Nord
Stream gas pipelines in September, but there are no firm conclusions[.]" So the intelligence "suggests" this. Well, that's solid.
I don't think we have the horses to pay close attention to every region. And Central Asia seems like a lower priority region.
Romania wants to buy Abrams tanks. I do hope we have a viable replacement coming soon.
Britain really needs to rearm. We may be back to the day when the appropriate response to the British landing on the continent is to summon the police. It's a long slog to the BAOV.
What fighter plane is best for Ukraine? But it is also good to ask "when" Ukraine should get them. Resources and time are not unlimited. So one must make choices.
Potential enemies have an advantage in tactical nuclear weapons. Is our dearth of them a real problem? We already downgraded tactical nukes in favor of precision conventional weapons that can do what we once needed less-precise nukes to achieve with a bigger blast radius.
Will American submarines reign supreme in a war with China? Probably. They are the most survivable asset that can operate within China's A2/AD bubble until that is degraded. So definitely in the early stages of the war. Until the subs empty their magazines and have to return to distant bases to reload. Do read it all.
The Chinese seem most worried about Taiwan having Starlink and Javelin missiles.
The Army is standing up its third Multi-Domain Task Force. I'm not exactly against them. They have a point. But I worry the Army is more worried about being relevant to the other services' domains rather than bolstering artillery for winning the land domain.
Our "best and brightest" government leaders are neither. Any government system based on that fantasy is bound to fail. Success lies in minimizing the role of those government leaders in our country.
When I got a new furnace, the energy savings potential are apparently all in the new "Ecobee" touch-screen thermostat. You can program it to do what I already do manually--adjust the heating or air conditioning for when you aren't home or go to sleep. Are people dumb enough not to do that on simple manual thermostats but smart enough to program their thermostats for the future? So no magical savings for me. And no App for me. Smart Home bad.
Sovereignty dies in darkness: "Manila's coast guard has intensified patrols in the disputed waters and taken extra efforts to document and publicize assertive Chinese behavior in the strategic waterway[.]" It has been a Chinese subliminal war and I advocated shining a light on China's behavior.
Russia's open reliance on Iran for weapons is driving Israel away from its policy of cooperating with Russia. It's a bold strategy, Putin. Let's see if it pays off for him.
I think Austin Bay makes good points but misses the biggest flaw of plans to defeat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan--the PLA invaders must be driven into the sea before a ceasefire.
Oddly enough, dying in a losing war is no aphrodisiac. And have I mentioned the Russians are bastards? "Currently Russia is forcibly moving over a million Ukrainians to Russia. About ten percent of these forced migrants are kidnapped children who are to be adopted and raised by Russian families as Russians."
That's not totally symbolic of Democratic illegal immigration policies at all, is it? "Two Honduran nationals believed to be illegal migrants were arrested in Nebraska on Tuesday after gunning down a North American bald eagle with the intention of cooking and eating it." Republicans pounce in 3 ... 2 ... 1 ... Tip to instapundit.
No way is our education at fault! We have an entire federal department, tenure, and powerful teacher unions! "The professors who authored the study theorize that the quality of education could play a role in reversing the IQ gains enjoyed by previous generations." Tip to Instapundit.
Ya think? "[The Army cautions that] unilateral U.S. military action into Mexico could harm the relationship between the U.S. and its southern neighbor[.]"
Australia will buy 3-5 American Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarines for the post-Collins retirement gap. The subs provide a transition to a British design with American technology for the AUKUS deal Australian subs that Australia will build.
Naming your tank will be a reward for III Corps crew gunnery qualification excellence. Otherwise it's Tanky McTankface for you. But will unintended consequences make this a bad idea?
I think it is a scandal that the U.S. can't ship a stripped down battalion of Abrams tanks to Ukraine in less than 18 months. Are our last shipments of weapons to the Afghanistan government flying toward Kabul even now?
Potemkin Tank: "The T-14 looked impressive and was considered as evidence that Russian tank design continued to be the most advanced in the world. That was an illusion that eventually did not last." The tank won't even get a cameo role in the war. Add details to the list.
As we hear Ken Burns and Michael Beschloss use their history degrees and prominence to promote partisan nonsense, I shudder that I quit the American Historical Association back in 1992 after I went to an AHA convention and was dismayed at how left-wing it was back then.
The same thing happened in World War I on the Western front when sometimes ancient weapons were thrown into the war because of ammo shortages, too, until production could catch up with demand: "After a year of fighting, both sides have to limit their artillery use because it will take years for ammo stockpiles to be rebuilt."
Western countries slowed weapons deliveries because they feared a long war. Which created a long war: "What could have been a relatively quick victory has turned into a slog because of the constant need to plead and scrounge for the needed weapons for Ukraine." Hmmm. Plausible. But could Ukraine absorb weapons faster? Was stretching out deliveries important to keep Russia from "over-reacting"? I'll hold off final judgment on this question.
Israel apparently struck the Aleppo airport to disrupt Iranian weapons shipments to Syria.
Indonesia is building a brand new capital city.
Is this a signal that China is getting ready for war or that China's military is way less effective than its shiny new weapons indicate? "China’s leader Xi Jinping has called for 'more quickly elevating the armed forces to world-class standards[.]'" Also, the article very accurately describes the PLA as "the military wing of the ruling Communist Party[.]"
We already know about all the equipment we left behind in Afghanistan. I've already written I'm not that worried about the low-tech gear and infantry weapons posing a direct threat to America. And as time goes on much will break down. And some will be stolen, promoting regional mayhem that stresses Pakistan. The Taliban controlling our weaponry isn't the main problem. The Taliban controlling Afghanistan is the problem. Or do you think our past jihadi outreach actually reformed the Taliban?
Putin fears Russia's fragmentation. I think that he should. But he should look in the mirror if he wants to find the villain in this drama. Will Russians let Putin take Russia down with him? Seriously, how does one reason with Putin?
The Russian ground forces enter the Wayback Machine.
Erdogan continues to be a complete a-hole by blocking Sweden and Finland from entering NATO.
Wow, the left doesn't actually believe dissent is the highest form of patriotism when they are in charge. Allegedly? Tip to Instapundit.
Slovakia and Poland may turn over Mig-29 fighters to Ukraine.
Consequences? We don't need no stinkin' consequences!
Russia's latest missile barrage on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure was the most damaging in weeks.
"What's known" about the Nordstream pipeline explosions is that pipelines exploded. CSI: Baltic Sea, it ain't.
Close to a decade and a half ago, I rejected the giddiness over the possibilities that social media could topple tyrants. I warned, When you Twitter a king, kill him. Little did I imagine that the "kings" and their minions would simply take control of social media to make it an arm of repression, instead.
Feminists have spent decades warning that the patriarchy was out to keep women down. But the patriarchy didn't knock down the door in a drunken, t-shirt-wearing rage. No. The patriarchy put on dresses and walked in the door after being invited in. Yes, men are now the best women. Feminists never suspected the patriarchy was that committed.
Next up: making water heaters produce only lukewarm water? For our safety, of course. Tip to Instapundit.
A resolution in the House to compel the withdrawal of American troops from Syria failed by a wide margin. We have about 900 troops there. Plus contractors in unknown strength. And I assume our special forces aren't included in the number for operational security. I guess that vote addresses my concern--a bit. In related news: "U.S. troops in Syria are seeing more Russian fighter jets flying over their positions, the Air Force’s top general in the Middle East said."
Taiwan said two Chinese civilian ships cut Internet cables that keep Matsu island, just off of China's shores, connected to the rest of Taiwan and the world. Taiwan isn't claiming it was deliberate. But it was deliberate. The Chinese naval militia in action, I dare say.
If British-French defense cooperation grows, will the need for British military power on the continent end the EU's efforts to punish Britain for Brexit?
Is the West winning the ammunition production war with Russia?
From the "Well, Duh" files of the American intelligence community: The US intelligence community believes that Russia "probably does not want a direct military conflict with US and NATO forces, but there is potential for that to occur[.]" The Russians would have to be lunatics to think that going to war against NATO on the battlefield is the best response to failing to defeat Ukraine on the battlefield.
Iran's mullahs can't get more and more of the Iranian people to love their rule. But the people are so far unwilling to fight and die to do something about that. If they don't, the regime security forces will never face the moral dilemma of shooting civilians. Can the mullahs use fear to get the people to accept its rule? And do the mullahs think nuclear weapons make that domestic problem irrelevant?
AUKUS will help Australia keep the PLA Navy at bay. And in part it will be by enabling American SSNs/SSGNs (what are they now with all the cruise missiles added?) to remain forward-deployed more.
INDOPACOM has a wish list for funding programs to deal with the China threat.
Ford embarked with a full air wing. Gulp.
The fact that Iran allowed this appeal to Biden from one its hostages to be broadcast must mean Iran's mullahs are desperate for more pallets of cash.
"Patient Zero" in the Russia-Trump collusion hoax. The FBI pretended Josh Rogin's story was accurate. Gosh, why do I have contempt for our media? Tip to Instapundit.
A single source for the F-35 engine is causing problems. I thought that was a mistake. But I read stories that my concerns were not based on facts. I know little about the technical details. I relied on the strange notion that lack of competition was fatal. I was also worried about ALIS. I can't say I wrote anything about the software update issue. But I might have. Still, if the problems are just teething problems, the plane will prove to be awesome. Pilots sure like them. And they are operating in the real world successfully.
The myth of Nixon's "southern strategy." Nixon was a proponent of civil rights. And it gives too little credit to whites who were increasingly supportive of civil rights. Tip to Instapundit.
Xi Jinping gets a "norms-breaking" third term as ruler of China. Emperor Xi, First of His Name, takes firm control.
Exposing China's subliminal war on the Philippines: "As a Philippine Coast Guard plane carrying journalists flew over the Spratly Islands in the hotly disputed South China Sea, a Chinese voice issued a stern command over the radio: 'Leave immediately.'" The war is on.
Perhaps Army senior leadership isn't woke (or woke-adjacent or systemically woke). That leadership denies the charge. But something is seriously wrong if it can't manage the NGSW infantry firearms design projects. I want purges.
The Netherlands is cutting China off from producing advanced computer chips. That's good. But am I wrong to think about the pre-Pearl Harbor American oil embargo on Japan?
Ukraine has apparently gotten pretty good at restoring the damage from Russian missile barrages on their electricity grid.
Democratic politicians don't know how to deal with actual reporters because Democratic politicians have grown accustomed to being fluffed by those who say they are reporters. Tip to Instapundit.
Whatever: "Iran has finalised a deal to buy Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets from Russia, state media reported, as defence cooperation between the two countries deepens." This just gives our pilots something to shoot down. Hell, our Gulf allies could to it by themselves if they don't want us to join in on the fun.
From the "Well, Duh" files: "In an effort to destabilise Western unity, the Kremlin continues its covert disinformation campaigns, relying largely on local supporters to promote its narrative." If the campaigns are as tiny, amateurish, and completely ineffective against anyone who didn't already agree with the subject as Russia's 2016 American election interference was, we have nothing to worry about. Also, "Russia's hybrid war thinking." Sigh. The fanboys are trying to zombify that dead mess.
Lithuania thinks Russia can keep up its war at the current level for two more years, at least. Are they right? Russia has certainly fought more than a year now. Although the current intensity is much lower than earlier in the war. But as much as Westerners mock Russia's warfighting skills, Russia has fought longer than most NATO countries could manage. You have to show up on the battlefield to win a war. Russia shows up.
Harrison Bergeron was unavailable for comment:
Lukashenko needed Russian assistance--at the price of increased Russian control--a couple years ago to avoid losing power to popular opposition. Is a Belarusian armed resistance capable of growing as Russia is tied down in Ukraine? Could Belarus flip if Russia begins to visibly lose in Ukraine? From either the opposition winning, elements within the government taking control, or Lukashenko recalculating his odds for survival? Italy flipped in 1943. Under different circumstances, of course.
Huh. Naomi Wolf apologizes to conservatives for believing the Democratic propagandists and their media "fact checker" handmaidens who wrongly demonized half the population with lies. I'll accept that. And hope more on the left at long last show some decency and realize what we've endured to oppose Democrats--as is our right and duty as citizens. Tip to Instapundit.
Retired Army General Jack Keane notes that America and our allies have the combined power to defeat China if it attacks Taiwan; and that we rely on Taiwan's advanced computer chip production. I think those are related facts. And I have related thoughts.
The China-brokered Saudi-Iranian deal is not a sign of a new era in the Middle East with reduced American influence. Our military footprint is going down. But that's natural. I think the deal is a Saudi shot across the bow that it is willing to explore a new era if America doesn't support Saudi Arabia security concerns. But that is mostly bluff given the huge American-made arsenal that the Saudis have, which needs supplies and maintenance to sustain.
Three years and counting for the Covid-19 pandemic. What explains the duration of this pandemic? Is it because it was engineered? Did vaccinations (and yes, we all know what that means. It's just shorthand) and lockdowns delay the spread, enabling more variants before it burned out? The Spanish Flu, while deadlier, lasted about 15 months in America. Unless the death rate we have now was considered "over" a century ago.
Turkey's escort carrier. Let's see if it operates south of the Suez Canal in the reborn Ottoman Empire-ish.
I know we are all supposed to quake in our boots from Russian "information operations" after the farcical Russian effort in our 2016 election. But is it really something to worry about in Moldova? I mean, I suppose a coup plot would be something to worry about. But just propaganda can be countered. In part by exposing it. I just don't think you can Twitter a king. You need something more.
The Navy proposes to retire USS Mount Whitney, a very useful command and control ship. She is great for signals intelligence, too, I believe. I mean, what replaces that capability?
Not even close to science--just advocacy with graphs and faux "confidence" levels. "Experts." Tip to Instapundit.
This will work out just swell, I'm sure: "Oregon lawmakers are aiming to make the state the second in the nation
to mandate climate change lessons for K-12 public school students[.]" Our schools fail to teach students to read, write, or do math. But by God they'll inflict needless climate anxiety on them. F**k the teacher unions and their government allies.
