The Russian blue water surface fleet had to die to build the Borei SSBNs.
Iran takes time out from coping with protests to vent anger at France over some cartoons. France and Iran were recently at a conference in Iraq to stabilize the country, which I noted. Reader Eric does not trust France. I trust France to want to sell arms to Iraq. And to other Arab countries. So I don't worry too much about France letting Iran dominate Iraq. But is Iran's anger a result of France not cutting a deal with Iran or an effort to get France to cut a deal? Or is this simply what nutball Shia jihadis do and I'm over-thinking it?
That's not good: "Supporters of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro who refuse to accept his election defeat stormed Congress, the Supreme Court and presidential palace Sunday, a week after the inauguration of his leftist rival, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva." I'm no fan of da Silva. But it is good that the protesters were removed. Still, I hope in time we don't look at this as a lost opportunity to stop a leftist dictatorship before it got going.
The year 2022 was another year of mowing the jihadi grass in Somalia from the air. Until local authorities can exert control--no matter how many recognized states that turns out to be in my opinion--it's just holding the line.
Palau will host a new type of American over-the-horizon radar. Good.
Wishing for Japan to be able to defend itself to free up American forces for other things. It's almost funny to read that America needs allies to spend more on defense after all the media huff about Trump's blunt pressure on NATO countries. Also, with more threats to worry about, our allies should arm up. But don't pretend there isn't a danger to getting what we wish. That just leaves dominating ammunition production to maintain leverage.
We mock Putin's "special military operation" in Ukraine, which looks an awful lot like a war. But let's not forget America's "time-limited, scope-limited military action" against Libya, which also wasn't a war. And also took much longer than anticipated. Hell, it's still going on, really.
Kazakhstan is slipping out of Russia's grasp. Even before Russia invaded Ukraine, Russia said the quiet part out loud. The big question is whether China tightens its grasp. I mean, is Turkey really a counter-balance to China? Russia's weakening grasp is a problem for Russia bigger than "only" Central Asia.
Is there a major malfunction in the California National Guard?
If there is a real effort to rein in federal spending, I have no problem with defense spending taking a hit, too. Big "if". That said, I think helping Ukraine defeat Russia is absolutely in America's interest.
I don't buy the idea that 100+ American, German, and French armored vehicles are the key to a Ukrainian mobile counteroffensive in the first half of 2023. Ukrainian losses of armored vehicles aren't that high. And Ukraine has captured a lot of Russian armored vehicles to replace losses. Either Ukraine's army is in much worse thought than I thought or this is disinformation to distract from a looming Ukrainian counteroffensive.
The Navy is considering reestablishing Cold War-era "readiness squadrons" to repair training and maintenance problems in the fleet. Good. But is this treating the symptom rather than the disease?
Environmentalists to Germans: we'd rather freeze you and destroy your job than allow coal mining.
Who needs a state-owned media to support the government when the media is willing and eager?
Canada will purchase F-35As. Equipped with drag chutes for icy runways and "true north" navigation to operate over the Arctic. So ... F-35Ehs. I regret nothing!
From the "Well, Duh" files: Russia's Twitter propaganda during the 2016 election had no measurable impact on voters. Tip to Instapundit. It was obviously a BS accusation. But the Democrats' sudden conversion to Russian collusion hunters paid off in 2020. So as former Senator Reid might have said, "It worked, didn't it?"
And now for something completely different (and inspired by a clever quip my daughter, Lamb, made about a photo she took):
No! Way! "Joe Biden on Monday refused to answer why classified documents [taken after he was vice president] had been found inside the offices of his Washington D.C. think tank in November - news that has only been made public now." Funny how that long-known information only surfaced now. Actually I'm shocked it surfaced at all. Tip to Instapundit.
Russian tank design development.
I don't understand why some images I put into posts fail to display when I bring up older posts. Very odd.
So ... Libya is still stumbling along.
Would preventing military vehicles from idling save the planet? One, that's not the military's mission. And two, my old service understanding was that you did not turn your vehicle off--even during refueling--until you get to where you are going. Otherwise the vehicle has a risk of something breaking that prevents it from starting. It's not just a battery issue.
The United States may send Stryker wheeled armored personnel carriers to Ukraine.
The US contracted for Vampire anti-drone systems to be built for Ukraine. The rockets can also be used against ground targets.
NATO basically announced that Turkey has hit Sweden about the head and shoulders enough and that Sweden (and Finland, with it) should be approved as alliance members. What kind of pressure will NATO put on Turkey to say it has squeezed enough out of Sweden, Finland, and NATO?
Well said: "We’d all be a lot better off if we didn’t devote so much time, energy, and creativity to solving problems that aren’t problems."
The House will investigate General Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. I don't think General Milley has committed treason. But he has to go. As the military would say when relieving a senior officer, I have suffered "a loss of confidence" in his leadership. And he should not be the only one.
A see expertise in regions or countries is no longer needed to understand those countries or regions when bad things happen. Now you just need to blame Trump. Tip to Insanity Wrap.
There seems to be a defense of Russia's invasion out there that claims Russia was defensively preempting a Ukrainian offensive in the Donbas. This is silly on two obvious counts. One, Russian-occupied Donbas is Ukrainian territory. So a hypothetical Ukrainian counteroffensive would have been fully justified. And two, if Russia thought it was preempting a Ukrainian offensive--meaning Russia expected war--why did Russia plan a victory parade into Ukraine rather than a hot war?
Hey! I can finally see and load images I uploaded to Blogger again. Whew.
NATO and the EU have pledged to work together to help Ukraine. Good. But NATO should watch its back.
Were any conservative "conspiracy theories" about leftists suppressing conservatives on Twitter false? Tip to Instapundit.
That's seems wise: "Shaken by an underwater explosion that ripped through the Nord Stream pipelines in September, European nations are waking up to the task of securing the ocean floors that house the continent’s arteries of wealth." All the more reason to get Sweden and Finland into NATO soon to dominate the Baltic Sea. I assume no news on what caused the explosion means a friendly country did it or that it was an accident.
America's media and their Democratic allies generally likes a rubber-stamp Congress that quickly passes whatever leftist nonsense that is put on the calendar. Actual democracy in action disturbs them.
Friends in need: "Indian Air Force fighter jets have made their first deployment to Japan to take part in the long-delayed exercise Veer Guardian."
News from the responsible and successful regional power, Iran: "The U.S. Navy seized more than 2,000 assault rifles after halting a suspected smuggling vessel on its way from Iran to Yemen, the Navy announced Tuesday."
Democrats outraged that they have to exist under rules Speaker Pelosi set. Tip to Instapundit.
So people could re-evolve fur from dormant genes? Do our genes know something we don't know? Tip to Instapundit.
Oh FFS: "The University of Southern California's School of Social Work is dropping use of the word 'field' in an effort to oppose racism." They give higher education a bad name. And I can't say that conclusion is wrong these days. Idiocracy is coming true. Still, I could really go for a Starbucks, I suppose. Tip to Instapundit.
Russia's logistics difficulties.
But the Taliban promised America they wouldn't do that! "The United States and Pakistan openly agree that the new Afghan government cannot be trusted and is definitely providing sanctuary for many Islamic terrorist groups."
Huh: "A computer outage at the Federal Aviation Administration brought flights
to a standstill across the U.S. on Wednesday, with hundreds of delays
quickly cascading through the system at airports nationwide." But don't worry, the transportation secretary is on the problem.
There was also a 9-1-1 outage Monday.
Tigray regional forces began turning over heavy weapons to the Ethiopian government.
Poland is thinking about sending Ukraine Leopard II tanks. It does make sense for Poland to go to a Abrams tank force for simplified logistics.
The military is ending its mandatory Covid-19 vaccination policy. A number of troops were discharged over this. How many couldn't enlist in the first place? I'm torn over this. Clearly the mandatory vaccination policy went on way too long. We lost people we didn't need to lose. But in principle, the military needs the authority to require whatever shots it deems necessary to keep personnel in fighting condition.
Just going to mention again that when Democrats block streets with protests, riot, interrupt government proceedings, or take over government buildings, according to our media that's "what democracy looks like." But when Republicans take four days to vote on how the House of Representatives will be organized to operate the next two years, that's a "threat to our democracy."
Armenia needs an alternative to Russia or Iran to help defend itself. It sure won't be Turkey. Or Israel, which has other commitments. Or America, given other commitments. Who's left? China?
Iran clamps down "decisively" on its women. This never gets old:
Canada will buy a NASAMS air defense system for Ukraine.
If Iran is a threat to Israel and Saudi Arabia, yes, Israel can reach out to Saudi Arabia directly despite the Biden administration's disapproval of the Saudi government. The Abraham Accords provide a framework for formal relations, no? But it is astounding that the Biden administration is a speed bump for that, no?
I didn't think we could surpass "murder hornets". But here's another thing I'm supposed to be worried about. And now for something completely different:
I was fully prepared to say that I was wrong about Biden's domestic fossil fuel production policy. But the administration is lying with statistics. Using an annual production average for two years of the Biden administration as America exited the Covid-era compared to four years of the Trump era--which included massive Covid-19 reductions in demand and production--is a form of lying. Also, it doesn't cover long-term Biden disincentives for future production.
Will Western tanks allow Ukraine to show how tanks should be used in their next counteroffensive? I've said I'm now open to concluding tanks may be too expensive and vulnerable to go on as currently designed. But I also said I won't make that call just based on Russia's horrible performance.
Ukrainian artillery destroyed a Russian cutter on the Dnieper River recently. According to a Ukrainian claim.
Like many buzz word notions, I don't exactly oppose the "whole of nation" approach to national defense. It is useful to apply all forms of national power to defeat a threat. But I do worry it is just an excuse to reduce defense spending, arguing other forms make up for that decrease in hard power.
A defense of keeping American troops in eastern Syria. There are good reasons to stay. But as a nation we need to know why those troops might die to achieve them. And we need to be aware of the ground shifting dangerously under our presence.
This seems prudent: "The leaders of Australia and neighbouring Papua New Guinea say they are finalising a new security treaty – a move seen as a challenge to China’s growing assertiveness in the Pacific region."
If people want to argue that it is natural for North Korea to want nukes to defend itself (from non-existent American invasion threats), you have to admit this is natural: "President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea said for the first time on Wednesday that if North Korea’s nuclear threat grows, South Korea would consider building [tactical] nuclear weapons of its own or ask the United States to redeploy them on the Korean Peninsula." South Korea wanting nukes is natural. And I don't like proliferation. But it might be the least-bad option.
Uh oh: "Exasperation is growing over the U.S Navy’s inability to get missiles and weapons delivered fast enough to keep its own magazines full, let alone offer more assistance to Ukraine or other partners in need, several leaders said at this week’s annual Surface Navy Association conference." That's a problem.
I'm sure I've mentioned this before, but just in case, the F-15EX with lots of missiles and good radar will be great for defending North America. You don't really need stealth to defeat heavy bombers and cruise missiles inbound.
As I hear about the time it will take to train Ukrainians, I assume the estimates are too high. In basic training we were told that if at war, training would be accelerated in its pace and by cutting out the fluff, like the class on using bank accounts. And if we aren't accelerating the training of Ukrainians, shame on us. Ukraine needs troops fast and we could use the practice on the accelerated training we'd use for our own troops.
The Navy is thinking about the replacement of the successful but aging Burke-class destroyer design. Burke construction was extended to buy time to avoid effing up the next design. God help us if we can't successfully design and build a major surface combatant.
Will the U.S. military become hollow with too little money (remember inflation) pursuing objectives too large to achieve? Possible. The solution is to increase the resources (including people) or reduce the objectives. But don't just play with words to achieve the balance. Although I have some problems with the "porcupine" flavor-of-the-month" buzz word solution.
Just a reminder that other countries have their own political cultures and don't just ape what they see Americans doing. It's kind of racist to deny them their own agency, isn't it?
Good: "British and Japanese troops are planning joint military exercises in the Indo-Pacific to deter an increasingly aggressive China, Russia and North Korea." There are good post-Brexit reasons. Ah, memories.
Russian power and influence in Syria is going down as Russia devotes resources to its invasion of Ukraine. Turkey and Russia could take advantage. And jihadis, too. But would our NATO ally Turkey really cooperate with Russia and Assad to push American forces out of eastern Syria?
Oh! The garage was locked? Never mind. Biden could only have been more sloppy with classified information if he'd emailed it to Secretary of State Clinton. Tip to Instapundit. And now for something completely different:
Apparently, when you have $90 billion for covert agents, global eavesdropping, and fleets of spy satellites, it's kind of humiliating to use OSINT. That's all bloggers have.
Good point: "Too much Western analysis and debate about China’s impressive military
buildup focuses on its equipment and weapons, and too little on its
people. Yet personnel recruiting, training, and retention issues might be exactly what holds China back in the “marathon” it is racing against the United States." I concur. But does Xi Jinping know that? And can he know that?
Who knew the Code Pink hags were still around? They usually get more quiet and lose media visibility when a Democrat is in the White House.
Why do so many people distrust our media?
Iran keeps its Yemen allies fighting but can't provide enough support to do much fighting. But there are so many fights that nothing much seems to matter these days.
The F-15EX: " Initially squadrons that perform air defense missions in the United States will receive these aircraft. The F-15EX is cheaper to buy and operate than the F-35 and, for missions that do not depend a lot on stealth, the F-15EX is cheaper and more capable." And there is this: "The F-22 and F-35, have demonstrated the ability to remain silent (few radio and radar transmissions) while finding and identifying targets while using less stealthy aircraft (or missile units on the ground) to launch weapons at new targets." As I wrote last week, "I assume it would work with F-35s that spot for the F-15EX launchers." And the F-15EX is large enough to carry hyper-sonic missiles. I did not know that.
Despite long dismissals of Belarus joining Putin's invasion of Ukraine because of domestic opposition and a poor military, is that the way things are drifting? I've mentioned that I've worried Putin could directly threaten Lukashenko with death, making all the reasons for not joining the war seem like the best option available to him.
If Asian neighbors are worried about Japanese rearmament because of the 20th century history, they can blame China for awakening a sleeping giant. Remember, a peace constitution is not a suicide pact.
"Consider"? "Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced alongside Japanese officials on Wednesday that they would consider military retaliation in response to attacks on satellites, a policy that puts China and Russia on notice amid looming threats in space."
Well, China provoked this in the first place: "China on Thursday signaled plans to retaliate militarily to new security initiatives between Japan and the U.S., warning that the allies’ accelerated cooperation will create new threats for themselves in the region." China has already been racing to build up its military. How much faster can it arm up?
Having sufficient support for the shooters is vital, especially in the vast Pacific. And medical care is part of that: "To be built by Austal USA, the Expeditionary Medical Ship will be based on the Expeditionary Fast Transport, or EPF, a catamaran used by the Navy for personnel transit within coastal operational theaters such as Central and South America."
No! Way! "The University of Pennsylvania, the Ivy League institution which collected tens of millions of dollars from China while paying Joe Biden and hosting his foreign policy think tank, successfully pressured the Biden Justice Department to end an FBI counterespionage program targeting Beijing's increasing influence within U.S. academia."
Make it stop: "I’ve convened and I’ve convened now at least three times a group that
has their acronym CARICOM. It is the Caribbean nations. Island nations.
In the Western Hemisphere. That is where the Caribbean is. We are also
in the Western Hemisphere. They are our neighbors." And she's more sentient than the man she is a heart beat away from replacing. They need PDB pop-up briefing books. And now for something completely different:
We have always been at war with Eastasia are NOT proposing a ban on gas stoves: "A week ago, nobody was talking about gas stoves. The Dems are the ones
who brought up banning the damn things. They thought the issue was a
winner. Then they quickly realized it isn’t, so now they’re blaming the
other guys for noticing." Is it just me or does AOC's confident stupidity make her less pretty every year?
The man who wrecked a large solar energy plant in Las Vegas said he did it to [checks notes] support "clean" energy. He's just going to exacerbate anti-dentite hate.
Tell Turkey to stand down on NATO membership and start developing now! "While it could take more than a decade to develop, state-owned Swedish mining company LKAB said Thursday it uncovered Europe's largest known deposit of rare-earth elements, elements that are central components for the energy transition." Via Instapundit.
Battlefield UGVs cross the line from toy to useful.
And now for something completely different:
The Green spending agenda, oddly enough, benefits Communist China. Tip to Instapundit.
Islands: "This week, the U.S. signed memorandums of understanding with the Marshall Islands and Palau that administration officials hope will pave the way for the quick completion of broader agreements that will govern the islands' relations with Washington for the next two decades. Those ties grant the U.S. unique military and other security rights on the islands in return for substantial aid." Good.
The Russian government is starting to fight rival Russian private military power more than the Ukrainians. It's interesting times in Russia: "As for Gerasimov, he may be a superb general, but given the reality, he is going to fight a battle for command over Wagner before he fights the battles for Ukraine."
If hearing the word "field" harms you, well, I guess I just don't care. Peak Stupid is pushed ever higher out of reach.
The Russians really are bastards: "Russian authorities continue to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of adoption."
It was a dumb idea. I'm sure this was done in the spirit of trying to think outside the box. But that's it. If it was really serious I want to know why the book's author--and his source--held on to that fact all these years for their book.
For months the general assumption out there was that Ukraine would launch a winter counteroffensive. Now it seems like the general assumption is that Ukraine is preparing to repel a Russian spring offensive. I don't know if Russia is lying to forestall that Ukrainian counteroffensive or if Ukraine is lying to conceal that counteroffensive.
LOL:
Germany's post-Cold War military became a joke. Germany had a brief spasm of defense resolve in 2022. But it got over that. Yeah. Clue bat, where are you? Biden should name Trump as his Special Envoy on German Defense Spending.
Iranian protests are waning. Will protest leaders shift to insurgency? The regime will react. And likely increase the anger of those who used to protest.
I wish this was the way the left thinks: "Kamala: 'I think of this moment as a moment that is about great momentum, inspired by, yes, optimism…but also inspired by also our collective effort to see what can be unburdened by what has been.'" Sadly every policy they have is burdened by their bizarrely incorrect history of what has been dating back to 1619. Tip to Instapundit.
Crimea is territory Ukraine must have to defeat a future Russian invasion. And Crimea is territory that Putin can't survive--whether that is politically or literally--losing. And while I don't think nuclear threats are highly credible over Crimea, I concede Russian nuclear use is more likely than the threats have been up to now. Is there a potential compromise at some point? Or perhaps a more narrow rental agreement? Neither side is ready for compromise. And maybe one side or another wins enough this year to make compromise unnecessary. But I like to keep this in mind.
Scientists seem reluctant to practice science in defiance of the consensus of The Science: "Nature magazine, one of the premier science journals, carried a
startling news story last week about a study charting the precipitous
decline of 'disruptive' scientific research, concluding that this
decline is also reducing technological innovation." To be fair, heretics are treated roughly by the true believers. And now for something completely different:
Euros in space! "The European Union wants to bolster its capacity to launch small satellites into space with a new launchpad in Arctic Sweden."
Britain will provide about a dozen Challenger tanks to Ukraine. [Later: 14 tanks.]That's enough for a squadron/company. It isn't a lot, but it could provide the spearhead company of a tank battalion with the rest composed of older Russian/Soviet models a bit back in support. If a few more countries donate similar amounts of modern tanks, Ukraine gets the assault elements of a number of tank or combined arms battalions. It's a start.
Oops. LOL Tip to Instapundit.
Yevgeny Prigozhin continues to poop on the Russian military while boasting of the Wagner Group's competence. I'm just going to say that Prigozhin falls down a flight of stairs the first major defeat Wagner experiences.
The precision 120mm mortar. Carried on a HMMWV.
No SDB-based surface-to-surface weapons for Ukraine because the "Office of the Secretary of Defense and the U.S. Air Force are concerned that the long lead time to deploy the SDB could render the weapons redundant given the fast pace of fighting in Ukraine, which has not let up in the Donbas region in towns such as Bakhmut and Soledar despite the onset of a punishing winter." Huh? "Fast pace"? The war is grinding on! Stop assuming the war will end when you calculate it!
Russia will deploy a huge 240mm mortar to fight Ukraine. That will fire a huge shell. But it takes 25 minutes to set up and has a slow rate of fire. I don't know how long it takes to pack up and move to avoid counter-battery fire. It's supposed to be scary. And I suppose it will be useful against fortifications. But my sense is that its nuclear capability (scary!) is the major reason it is being deployed. That and perhaps shortages of artillery ammunition.
Ukrainian pilots fear an advanced long-range Russian air-to-air missile carried by the Su-57. Tactics to avoid the missile degrade Ukraine's use of their small air force. AWACS flying from NATO territory haven't detected the stealthy Su-57. But if flying inside Russia, does the AWACS have the range to detect any aircraft? Low-flying aircraft can be detected at 250+ miles and those higher 400+.
Iraqis learned that if they ask us to leave, we leave. And all the bad things that happen when the predators then sweep in: "Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani defended the open-ended presence of US and other foreign troops in his country, in an interview published Sunday." The war against Iran in Iraq continues.
Russia's death match inside Ukraine means it has little power to help Assad push Iran out of Syria these days. So: "Syria and key ally Iran agreed Saturday to renew an economic strategic arrangement between the two countries as Damascus prepares to welcome Iran’s president in the near future."
Now go and emit no more. Tip to Instapundit.
For the next century, pranksters will pour a bucket of mayonnaise in front of this statue. What an honor.
