Is the apparent lack of a visible Iranian supreme leader giving Iranian protesters room to grow?
Will high energy prices cripple European industry? For many Greens that's a feature rather than a bug. How will the victims of that victory react? More on the natural gas problem in Europe. Remember, Putin just exploited what the Greens did to European energy "strategy".
The Taliban may be setting their sights on Central Asia. Despite their victory over America, Russia may seem an easier target. Will the Central Asians see Russia as their protector or will China build on economic ties (and last week I noted this highly related news: "Belt and Road 2.0 0.2, it seems.") to become the protector? All is proceeding as I foretold.
Is Hillary! Clinton really planning to run for president again? It is Dick Morris, after all. Not exactly Mr. Credibility. Or is she just trying to maintain Brand Hillary to attract donations? Still:
Iran expands its arsenal of wonder weapons.
Japan as the third "global military power"? Sort of. Japan could have the third strongest conventional military. But it won't be a global military power as far as reach. Japan doesn't have the logistics to be more than a regional military power. But much like Europe in the Cold War, Japan could be a decisive factor in global power competition because of its location near China.
Allies 2.0: "More than 2,500 U.S. and Philippine marines joined combat exercises Monday to respond to any sudden crisis in a region long on tenterhooks over South China Sea territorial disputes and increasing tensions over Taiwan."
The mullah regime in Iran hauled their quiet chief nutball out of the basement: "Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Monday blamed the U.S. for the widespread protests still erupting in Iran[.]" If only we were that competent.
I can't say I'm happy that Russian soldiers are dying in large numbers. But I feel worse for the Ukrainian dead. And sending body bags of Russian troops back to Russia--no matter how unwilling the troops are--is the only way to get Russia to admit defeat and end the invasion.
Shame on him! "Burkina Faso's Capt Ibrahim Traoré has become the latest military officer to seize power in a coup in one of France's former colonies in West Africa." Wait until you are a general! A colonel, at minimum.
America: From pivoting to the Pacific to pivoting across the Pacific. Tip to Instapundit.
I don't think it is appropriate for a Ukrainian diplomat to tell the man who provided Ukraine with secure communications to "fuck off." And while other Musk's suggestions aren't something I agree with, using Crimea as a bargaining chip for peace after defeating Russia's latest invasion is hardly crazy. I've done that. Although I'm not locked into the specifics from back then. But I don't think bringing more pro-Russian Crimean voters into Ukraine--at a potentially high cost in Ukrainian troops--is a great idea. I think the option of selling Crimea to Russia should be an option, if it doesn't save Russia from defeat and promotes the end of the war. The sale--and back rent to 2014--could disguise decades of what would effectively be Russian reparations for the invasions. Ukraine may well reject the notion. Russia might, too. But it isn't crazy.
Russia sent the huge sub Belgorod with its Poseidon nuclear torpedo (?) to sea for tests. Whatever. LOL! Less humorous is the movement of a Russian train possibly carrying nuclear weapons toward Ukraine. But it might be a bluff. Especially given it is moving at the same time as the underwater bullshit machine. I don't assume a "test", as I've heard it might be for, means detonating a nuke on Russian territory. Tip to Instapundit.
Corruption is undermining Iraq's fragile democracy, in part by enabling Iran's destructive influence. Is Moqtada al-Sadr really the hero in this drama?
You can't replace weapons and ammunition losses and usage in a war with peacetime production.
Is it my imagination or are the people who say NATO is obsolete the same people who say it is natural for Russia to want a buffer zone in the west? A buffer that once bisected Germany.
Russian nuclear targeting doctrine. I find the idea that without nuclear arms treaties Russia can massively increase their nuclear arsenal to be ludicrous given I doubt how much of its existing arsenal works. There is reason to worry about Putin. But reason he shouldn't want to risk exposing the fraud of his nuclear deterrent.
North Korea fired a ballistic missile over northern Japan. As I noted last week, Japanese in northern Japan killed a land-based missile defense system to protect them.
I'm not for NATO ignoring the Black Sea. But saying it is key for preventing Russia from projecting power into the Mediterranean Sea is nonsense. Sure, Crimea enables that. But Russia has done nothing to build on that potential. In war the Russian Mediterranean flotilla would live a short but exciting life, giving NATO southern states something to do with their navies.
The Army prepares to fight in the western Pacific region. But outside of South Korea, the army prepares to be a Navy auxiliary rather than preparing its reason for existence--large-scale conventional operations, as I addressed in Military Review.
Is Germany's decision to face Russian aggression too little and too late? I don't think so. If Germany acts. I'm worried Germany has had second thoughts about finally joining the West.
The U.S. is sending another package of military assistance to Ukraine. Including a thousand of these, which are nice to block enemy retreat routes or, more usefully, interfere with enemy counter-attacks on flanks when advancing.
The U.S. may create a command in Europe to oversee the equipping and training of Ukrainian troops.
A DOD official said Russia's recent retreats in Kherson will spiral into a major defeat.
Just because a Russian recruiting video was both a fake and not reflective of reality doesn't mean American recruiting videos aren't crap. And I certainly didn't believe Russia's military reflected that video.
I understand Poland's request. But I don't think a request for $1.3 trillion reparations from Germany for World War II is helpful when we're already having trouble getting Germany to help defend NATO.
Huh: "A Greek defense startup is proposing a new autonomous surveillance tower, “Outpost,” to improve the monitoring of remote islands, a capability considered crucial in territorial disputes with neighbor Turkey." I suggested something similar for Japan.
The Taliban empire of dirt, where resistance is growing.
One of four South Korean ballistic missiles fired to send a message to North Korea exploded on launch. Does Putin want to bet his nuclear weapons works better?
Europeans certainly need to step up with help to Ukraine to avoid a trans-Atlantic rift. But if the European Union has the job, the EU has higher priorities than solving the crisis with Russia. Never confuse political "Europe" for geographic Europe.
China's path to overtaking the American economy is longer--if it can achieve that. Welcome to the party, pal. What will the CCP do? "Chinese growth will slow sharply, and the way in which it does will have profound consequences for the country, the CCP, and the global economy."
I've wondered if Putin would organize his newly conscripted troops and fling them across the northeast Ukraine border on that now-dormant front. While Russia's annexation of some Ukrainian territory will allow conscripts to be sent into southern and eastern Ukraine, they can't legally be used for my speculative purpose. That would require Putin to abandon his "special military operation" and a Russian declaration of war on Ukraine.
Biden is trying to keep Saudi Arabia from cutting oil production. The Saudis owe Biden little. Not only did Biden call Saudi Arabia a "pariah state", Biden plays footsie with the Saudi enemy mullah-run Iran and had left the Saudis hanging by ignoring the Abraham Accords. The Saudis quietly backed that initiative for Israel-Arab peace, and would have joined it with American backing. I wish Biden had succeeded. But I can hardly blame the Saudis for wanting something tangible in return.
Russia's failure to use its much larger air force to support their ground forces still stuns me. Russia clearly doesn't want to risk it. Probably because Russia would need it against a bigger more dangerous enemy. I wonder what would have happened if Russia had lots of cheap World War II models of propeller ground attack aircraft that could be lost in large numbers and replaced easily (and which would be easier for new pilots to learn to fly). Just wondering.
People that wrapped up in politics are nuts and self-destructive: "I know a lot of people who were so distressed about the election of
Trump that they had to go on anxiety medication. They couldn’t sleep. It
dominated their lives, their goals, their thoughts, their
relationships, their conversations for four years and even to this day." I suppose I should be grateful rather than lament that they advertise their mental illness on dating sites. Tip to Instapundit. As I observed some time ago:
The Solomon Islands government is falling into China's orbit. We should work with our allies to diplomatically reverse that before we need to review this campaign.
Fair enough: "The Romanian Navy wants more minehunters to keep merchant ships safer in the Black Sea, its top service official said last week."
While China may have developed Covid-19 for weapons purposes, China clearly didn't release it as an attack if you consider how self-destructive China's pandemic policies have been. Tip to Instapundit.
Dueling artillery systems in Ukraine. Is armored tracked artillery too expensive to be useful? If you are fighting a skilled enemy using massed dumb shells, armored tracked self-propelled artillery would really help. But perhaps that isn't the scenario to prepare for?
The administration has no idea. How could we? "Why did the Biden administration decide to spend so much political capital trying, and failing, to get Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ members to expand production when it could have simply expanded oil production domestically? What, exactly, is going on?"
I don't think it is that bad on a large scale--yet: "Russia’s latest military collapse happened like bankruptcy: gradually and then suddenly." You have to push even collapsed enemies to really know that. But I'm absolutely on that "gradually and then suddenly" notion, as I noted when I said the war was on the knife's edge. The war tilted to Ukraine. Is a cascade starting?
Will the replacement for the aging but still excellent Abrams tank be the AbramsX? Until then, the M1A2 SEPv4 is an option.
Is Iran an important link between China and Russia? If so, add one more problem that could be made better by the fall of Iran's mullah regime.
U.S. forces (Delta Force plus supporting forces, I assume) launched a ground raid against ISIL in northeast Syria. Shortly thereafter America launched an airstrike in northern Syria. I assume the latter was enabled by intelligence gathered from the former.
The U.S. wants to stockpile weapons (and supplies?) on Taiwan, in hardened and disperse locations, so Taiwan can endure a Chinese blockade until American-led forces can break the blockade. That would be prudent. Although I think Taiwan needs tanks and artillery to drive the PLA into the sea.
An Army that already has many substitutes for victory decided to add one more: "The Army on Wednesday released its new plan describing how it intends to combat climate change built around trying to survive increasingly extreme weather while limiting the service's contribution to the problem."
Biden would rather give Saudi Arabia or Venezuela money for oil rather than Texas. It's worse than that. By canceling the XL pipeline, Biden put Canada below Texas, too.
Short explanation: Russia and Turkey cooperate to keep Libya divided to enable migrants to threaten Europe. Well, that and helping Turkey grab energy-reach seabeds.
Huh: "President Joe Biden has been explicit in vowing to commit US forces in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan. The question occupying US and Taiwanese officials is the fate of the island’s flagship semiconductor industry." Well, sure.
Can Zumwalt become a dominant 21st century destroyer? No. The 3-ship class is a technology test bed with a secondary combat capability.
What the Hell is Canada's major malfunction?!
The Russian empire strikes back. And out? Will china throw that pitch? Could be.
The return of history: "A new headquarters unit was activated in Sembach, Germany, on Thursday to provide command and control for all Army air and missile defense forces within U.S. European Command, according to a statement from U.S. Army Europe and Africa."
I don't understand this "correction" of the record. I've long known 10th Mountain troops participated in the Battle of Mogadishu. I thought I'd written that the trained and veteran Delta Force troops weren't that happy with Rangers let alone the (relative to Delta) near-civilians in 10th Mountain. But I can't find it. I may have simply read it. But I knew it.
More than 7 months after Russia invaded Ukraine, Russia's Lavrov says Ukraine's Zelensky has just said something to justify the invasion. Finally! Zelensky's view has nothing to do with 7 months of Russia wrecking Ukraine and killing Ukrainians; and Russia waving around nukes. Effing Russians.
We need an "off ramp" to war crimes trials: "Ukrainian officials in newly-liberated Kharkiv Oblast continue to report Russian torture chambers and other human rights abuses, further confirming ISW’s previous assessments that the atrocities uncovered in Bucha, Izyum, and elsewhere were not isolated war crimes but rather a microcosm of Russian atrocities throughout Russian-occupied areas."
This seems like a problem: "Electric car owners have seen their rides catch fire after becoming waterlogged during Hurricane Ian and it can take hours to put the conflagrations out, a top Florida official warned Thursday." Via Instapundit.
Iranian protests against the mullah-regime are not dying out: "Schoolgirls chanted slogans, workers went on strike and street clashes erupted across Iran on Saturday, as protests over the death of Mahsa Amini entered a fourth week in defiance of a bloody crackdown."
American mortars and the development of precision. America has supplied Ukraine with 120mm mortars. Did Ukraine get precision ammunition, too?
The Russians continue to kidnap Ukrainian children from territory the Russians occupy.
Slovenia sent 28 modernized T-55 tanks to Ukraine. Don't laugh.
The Biden administration just can't restrain itself from helping our enemies, can it?
Are Hezbollah and Israel edging toward war? If so, will Israel bombard Hezbollah or drive all the way to the Bekaa Valley? Still, does Hezbollah want war as little as democratic Israel wants a ground war?
The German defense minister said NATO must do more to prevent Russian aggression. Welcome to the party, pal.
Then why the Hell did Biden speak of "Armageddon"? To be fair, I pretty much ignore what he says until all the explanations, corrections, and denials trickle out.
I can't say that Biden's rhetoric provoked Putin into invading Ukraine this year. Although if the Russians knew our diplomacy was based on the assumption that Russia would win in a matter of days, Biden certainly didn't deter Putin.
A common and visible threat works wonders for alliance unity.
The Russian truck bomb theory seems weak on the evidence. I was skeptical because Ukrainians don't seem like suicide bombers.
An inconvenient truth. Apparently. Via Instapundit.
Columbus Day is tomorrow. As I wrote last year: "The discovery of the New World by Columbus saved Western civilization: "No era transformed Western Civilization like the Age of Discovery. Before then, Europe was an economic and military weakling that had suffered centuries of defeat from Islamic empires. ... Europe was the Third World of the late medieval era. Chroniclers saw it as living in a long twilight, far removed from its golden age. It had nothing to look forward to but Judgment Day." Indeed. What will revive the West now?"
Also: "I still observe Columbus Day. Any property owner in the Americas is free to give their property to Native American tribes to do their small part to make up for any lingering guilt those people feel. But remember that the tribes and empires in the Americas in 1492 were the winners of past wars between Native American entities. The Europeans of 1492 were the victors over past Europeans and were the people who beat the past victors in the Americas. That's how the world worked, and still does all too often. Also, isn't it interesting that only America and Canada are considered illegitimate while every conqueror of indigenous peoples south of the Rio Grande River--or in the rest of the world (other than Australia and New Zealand)--get a pass from the woke? This is a useful essay."
