Not shocking: "The European Union was set to approve Monday a new defence strategy designed to increase the bloc's capacity to act, including setting up a 5,000-strong rapid reaction force." A real defense effort would reinforce the existing military structure in NATO. But the EU won't waste a crisis.
The wording is needlessly specific: "The Chinese ambassador to the United States says that China will not send weapons and ammunition to support Russia’s war in Ukraine and that Beijing would 'do everything to de-escalate the crisis'." What about weapons that don't support the war? What about ammunition for reserve stocks? Or am I ruined by the need for Clintonian parsing of language to accept this?
Afghanistan: "The IEA took power but it turns out that holding onto it will be far more difficult."
Airborne electronic support experiences significant shrinkage. It is cold at high altitude, after all.
About that Russian hypersonic missile used in Ukraine: "The truth is, the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missile is actually little more than a conventional air-launched ballistic missile with a design that dates back to the 1980s." It technically flies at hypersonic speeds but is not in the class of what is discussed today. Add another tree to the forest of lies.
Russia believed its own bullshit and sent its marketing machine to war. From the above link: "Russia has continued to fund the development of new weapons and systems aimed at garnering a great deal of attention, rather than focusing on maintaining or improving its existing equipment fleets." Again, no shock.
America won't import fossil fuels from Russia to punish Russia. America won't import fossil fuels from Canad to punish America. Oh. Oh, and Venezuelan and Iranian oil is okey dokey. Will I ever grok nuance?
Only certain people get accused of being traitors, I guess. Via The Morning Briefing.
Putin thought he could revive the territorial and power glories of the USSR without also getting the Soviet diplomatic and economic isolation. He also failed to appreciate the brain drain that Russia might face, too. How long before the old Soviet exit controls are reimposed? It's a package deal--not à la carte.
One of the problems of holding Afghanistan was that in adversity the Afghan armed forces had no loyalty to the idea of Afghanistan as a nation. If we'd done what I wanted before our surges there, actual loyalties to local political entities under a nominal national state would have been resilient enough to defeat the Taliban.
What's one more enemy at this point? "Russia said it is abandoning peace talks with Japan, which were aimed at signing a formal World War II peace treaty, due to Tokyo's tough response on Ukraine."
The Saudis want America to act like an ally if it wants them to pump more oil: "The Biden administration has transferred a significant number of Patriot antimissile interceptors to Saudi Arabia within the past month, fulfilling Riyadh’s urgent request for a resupply amid sharp tensions in the relationship, senior U.S. officials said." I bet we see the Saudis pump more oil. Tip to Instapundit.
To be fair, sucking up to Putin and declaring a cold war on Israel rolled up the red carpets: "'Turkey’s diplomatic isolation was the focus of excited punditry in recent years,' writes Amberin Zaman, 'but today, Ankara is running out of red carpet as a deluge of foreign dignitaries knock at its door.'"
NATO's challenge: "An emboldened Moscow could encircle NATO's new Baltic members, and cut them off from the alliance." Indeed.
To say "post-Soviet Russia was humiliated after the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union" is some revisionism. Recall that the Russian federation itself was eager to get out of the USSR to stop subsidizing the poorer parts of the Soviet empire. Current Russian rulers have stoked a sense of grievance that just wasn't there except in the hard core Soviets.
Crap: "A Marine Corps MV-22 Osprey with four crew members on board crashed during a training exercise in Norway, according to the Norwegian military." Just operating and surviving--let alone fighting--is hard in that environment.
American troops will stay in Iraq: "Going forward, [Marine General Frank] McKenzie said, the role will look a lot like it does now, as the Iraqi government comes together to make another go at strengthening the defense of its sovereignty." Iran is the main threat now. And unless Biden grants Iran a nuclear deal/financial boost--which, God help us, they want to do--we can defeat Iran's malign influence in Iraq. Surely we wouldn't court disaster by abandoning Iraq a second time, right?
Well why the ef not? Or are you listening to 2012 calling for its force posture back? It's not like an enemy would attack our diplomatic facilities, right?
Ah yes, the "historic ties" of being conquered and crushed by Russia, as told by Putin's man servant: "Moscow has made thinly veiled threats against Poland with an essay that stressed the two countries’ historic ties and attacked 'imbecilic' Polish leaders as 'vassals' of the US." The Russians act on this BS whether they believe it or not.
This is banana republic stuff: "Imagine a country that imprisons peaceful protestors on false charges of participating in an attempt to overthrow the government, as part of efforts to discredit and ultimately criminalize all opposition to the ruling party’s agenda." Vote accordingly. Via Instapundit.
It's like America is trying to lose influence in the region: "Iraq, like Saudi Arabia and the other Arab Gulf Oil states are very angry with the Americans because they are offering to not only rejoin the 2015 treaty but to modify the terms to make it easier for Iran to develop nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. Worse, the United States is considering taking the Iranian IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) and its Quds Force off the list of known terrorists."
In related news, "Israel makes it clear it will launch a major air and missile strike against the Iranian nuclear program if Iran gets close to creating a working nuclear weapon. Israel’s new allies among the Arab Persian Gulf oil states will cooperate with such an attack, as they are already being hit by Iranian missiles, cruise missiles and guided rockets."
Okay: "Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and IRGC are demonstrating 'growing expertise,' the U.S. intelligence community said in February in its annual threat assessment. Iran, the assessment concluded, takes an 'opportunistic approach' to cyber operations, particularly those that target U.S. and allied critical infrastructure." One word: JDAMs.
Basically, stop obsessing over what Putin might do to us; and think more about what we can do to him. Grant said it better, but the advice is good. That doesn't mean we do everything we can do. Just don't act like Putin gets to decide the limits of this war. Tip to Instapundit.
Our media is composed of partisan garbage people. And if this activist garbage collectively ends up having to learn to code or driving ride shares, it couldn't happen to a more vile group of partisan liars. Tip to Instapundit.
Spending more money is just a start to repairing the faux German military, training it to fight, and expanding it. Luckily for Germany, Russia is destroying the best of its ground forces attacking Ukraine.
If woke Americans won't take pride in America and its achievements past and present--and insist on pushing woke policies on the world--why should we expect other countries to rally to our side--even against Putin's Russia? Tear America down and pretty soon other countries believe we're garbage as much as the woke claim. You can't just turn that effect off when it is convenient. Use America's power to punish those who don't share woke views, and maybe they won't say "thank you" and comply. I'll ask again, why do we hate America? And what made us great? America has surely made mistakes. But look at history and the rest of the world, and we look pretty damned good.
The way the Fuck-Up Fairy seems to be guiding Russia's war effort, I can totally see Belarus throwing off Russian control; and many of the Central Asian former Soviet republics turning to China for protection and trade ties. Hell, Russia's Far East might cut unofficial deals with the Chinese to avoid Putin's immolation of Russia. Would anybody really obey a Putin command to use nukes?
Medvedev: "One of
Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin's closest allies said on Wednesday that the
United States aimed to humiliate, divide and ultimately destroy Russia,
and vowed the country would never allow that to happen." Very clever of the U.S. to infiltrate the Fuck-Up Fairy to Russia who tricked Russia into a bungled invasion of Ukraine.
Fact-checkers are no such thing. Tip to Instapundit.
Is it magical thinking or lovesick blindness that explains the Biden administration fervor to revive a nuclear deal with mullah-run Iran?
Live by the jihadi. Die by the jihadi.
Unvetted Afghans that America pulled out of Afghanistan after the Taliban captured Kabul can't be deported for the next 18 months. We wouldn't have this problem if we'd evacuated American allies instead of just grabbing nearby bodies to pad the numbers and obscure America's defeat.
The evolution of the Marines to the first Marine Littoral Regiment: "The littoral infantry teams also use tactics similar to what the allied 'coast watcher' teams did in the Pacific during World War II. The coast watchers formed spontaneously when Europeans or locals on Pacific Islands began observing Japanese ship traffic passing by and reporting it back to the nearest allied military base."
The "Z" signifying support for Putin's invasion of Ukraine doesn't really stand for anything? On March 15th I saw a sign with the Z and underneath it, "Za Pobeda", or "For victory." Perhaps that is just one of many after-the-fact definitions.
Russia's nuclear forces and willingness to use them. The Russians threaten nukes because they know the West fears them. The Russians have a history of nuclear threats. This war is no different. Still, Russia's nuclear posture reflects their conventional military weakness. And really, I wonder if Russia's nukes are really a pocket of military excellence amidst their ramshackle mediocrity.
Yes, don't let Russia's invasion of Ukraine damage U.S.-India relations. India needs Russian weapons to oppose China. And I hope India might be a lever to split Russia from China. FFS, isolating Russia from India reduces a point of Russia-China friction. Other countries we want to rally to oppose China, like Vietnam, should also be given some room to maneuver. Vietnam, too, wants Russian ties to balance China. Let's not get major cases of strategic stupid, okay? Despite Russia's outrage and real threat to NATO, China remains the primary foe.
Oops: "The [Russia-China] alliance is still rhetorically there, but the possibility of actual support is not. Russia has already been damaged by economic actions from the United States and its allies, and China, at this economic juncture, cannot afford to be caught in the trap Russia is in. Any military support would run afoul of sanctions. Put simply, Russia is a liability for China." Agreed.
Taliban 2.0 same as the original: "Taliban leaders in Afghanistan on Wednesday said that high schools
would remain closed to girls until a reopening plan that is compliant
with Islamic law was established."
From the "Well, Duh" files: "If current mission requirements — totaling nearly five ABCTs worldwide — hold without a change in force structure, their operational tempo could see a major increase[.]" The obvious solution is to restore a number of armored brigades. Until this century, about half of our active brigades were heavy. We have just 11 now (and only 5 in the Guard), an increase of 3 since 2016. So it could be worse.
Ka-ching: "Western spy agencies are getting ready to examine one of Russia’s most potent electronic warfare systems [the Krasukha-4] after a unit was captured in Ukraine."
I don't think Ukraine wants to be the anvil that teaches China not to invade Taiwan. We should all be satisfied with getting Russia to end the war and withdraw. Let Russians punish Putin.
For years I've worried that China might start a war because it wrongly believed it was stronger than its shiny new military hardware makes it seem. China approved Russia's invasion of Ukraine. China apparently believed Russia would quickly win, just as Russia did. Chinese certainty about its calculations about winning a war against Taiwan, America, Japan, and/or Australia surely took a big hit. And yes, I worry America is subject to the same problem.
More about the Switchblade suicide drone the U.S. sent to Ukraine. Honestly, with the explosive power of a hand grenade, it seems most useful for attacking enemy officers. But the post says they are good for taking out supply trucks.
The Army will formally adopt multidomain operations doctrine this summer. I have concerns. And that's on top of wondering how much support the Army will get from the air domain.
Egypt, Israel, the UAE--and maybe Saudi Arabia--met in Egypt in an apparent growing alliance to stop Iran. Sadly, the biggest obstacle to stopping Iran is the Biden administration.
The Russians aren't answering calls: "'We have tried on numerous occasions to connect Secretary Austin with his counterpart; Chairman Milley, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, has also tried to connect with his counterpart,' Kirby said. 'We have made multiple attempts here but they have not answered up. They’ve declined to take these calls.'" Maybe Putin ordered his generals not to answer. Maybe he is afraid that his officers will act like Chairman Milley did when he told the Chinese he'd warn them if America was about to attack.
There is little reason for Belarus to go to war with Ukraine. Given how badly bogged down Russia's army is in Ukraine, Putin can hardly order an invasion of Belarus as punishment.
This is funny. I'm hoping it is very serious. Tip to Instapundit.
Russian airlines are screwed. Via Instapundit. Russia needs aircraft to move troops around their huge country because the railroad connecting European Russia with the Pacific coast is not enough.
Huh: "China has seen investors pull money out of the country on an 'unprecedented' scale since Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, marking a 'very unusual' shift in global capital flows in emerging markets, according to the Institute of International Finance." Tip to Instapundit.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has persuaded Biden not to weaken America's nuclear deterrent with a no-first use pledge. Yeah, reality sucks.
More than two years ago, America focused on preventing Xi Jinping Flu (Covid-19) deaths. America became obsessed, in fact. So much so that only deaths from (or "with") Covid mattered. Deaths from the lockdown response to the pandemic weren't a factor in guiding public health policy. One day we'll know if the American response killed more than the virus did.
The former is good news if true (via Instapundit): "Daily coffee may boost heart health, lower mortality." But I don't buy the latter. I think all people have a 100% mortality rate. But I'm not a biologist.
FFS, only the willfully blind couldn't see this coming. But that's who leads us. They can't learn, can they?
What the Hell? It's not like Russia doesn't have other problems. Besides, Japan is hardly a threat compared to China: "Russia was conducting drills on islands claimed by Tokyo, Japanese media said on Saturday, days after Moscow halted peace talks with Japan because of its sanctions over Russia's invasion of Ukraine."
So that happened. "Undisclosed location." Try it. Via Instapundit.
No worries, America will make up for it by making Iran and Venezuela our friends.
While it is true that superior motivation provides Ukrainian troops an edge, don't forget the other side of the coin--poor Russian morale and training. In the Iran-Iraq War, Iran's Islamic revolution-inspired had far superior motivation to fight and die. But Iraqi firepower and ability to hold their line eventually broke the morale of Iran's poorly trained yet motivated troops. America sent the Islamist-motivated Taliban running in 2001. And the American-led Coalition did break the motivated jihadis in Iraq. Superior motivation is not the only factor.
LOL:
Because in a war with China, American Atlantic-based fleet elements would need to move to the Pacific: "Restrictions to the passage of traffic through the Panama Canal and the Strait of Magellan as China moves aggressively to expand its footprint across Central and South America are the top concerns of the current U.S. Southern Command head told a Senate panel."
In theory, the United Nations is supposed to rally the entire planet to halt aggression against a member state: "Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Friday took aim at the sanctions the United States and other countries have imposed on Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine, saying he believes that the West has declared 'total war' on Russia." So it could be worse, but for Russia's Security Council veto.
Lemonade? "Economic disruptions created by the current Russian invasion of Ukraine had some beneficial effects. Two examples are the accelerated demise of the American ULA (United Launch Alliance) monopoly and the elimination of Roscosmos, the Russian government organization controlling all space program activities, as a major competitor."
Uh oh: "A leaked document has revealed that China and the Solomon Islands are close to signing a security agreement that could open the door to Chinese troops and naval warships flowing into a Pacific Island nation that played a pivotal role in World War II." The Marines might want to review the last time they were sent there. Australia, too, of course.
I wish our enemies sabotaged themselves this way. Tip to Instapundit.
As if you had to ask, I do not participate in "Earth Hour."
Germany's path to NATO freeloader and its "oh sh*t" moment this year. It's a long and expensive path to fix what the Germans screwed up. But hey, I'm just grateful Germany decided to join the West and defend it.
Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water. Thanks Chinese Communist Party! Tip to Instapundit.
I worry that foreign policy decisions are being made to improve polling numbers and not for national security reasons: "Biden's job approval falls to lowest level of his presidency amid war and inflation fears[.]" Are my worries needless? Tip to Instapundit.
J and J vaccine recipients more likely to die from the Omicron variant than those with other vaccines. I thought I just read about another study saying it was good. But the rate is still really low (5 versus 2 out of 100,000). And it doesn't say if this is corrected for risk groups. I think the elderly were more likely to get it. So I'd expect a higher death rate. But I don't know. And honestly, the chance of death if unvaccinated is still low (20 out of 100,000). Via Instapundit.
