Sunday, July 22, 2018

A China Survey

Strategypage looks at China.

Some highlights:

China's elimination of the one-child policy isn't working, and there is a shortage of qualified and loyal people for the military.

China's military--including their navy--isn't as effective as the shiny weapons indicate. (Although I fear recent ship-handling accidents show our Navy isn't as effective as we assume our training and experience should make it.)

China's military is dangerously (from the perspective of China's communist rulers) tilting toward loyalty to China and not the Chinese Communist Party.

Despite growing fear of China by North Korea, China is still in the position to move North Korean negotiating posture in ways China wants. China has eased the economic squeeze on North Korea.

China is more vulnerable than America in a bilateral trade war.

China's financial bet on Venezuela isn't likely to pay off.

China has territorial claims on Russia, don't forget. One can never tell when that becomes a "core" interest.

China's OBOR economic project (the New Silk Road) is hitting and missing. And expensive.

China's superiority over India on their common border is assured as India has abandoned their long-discussed plan to build up a new force of 90,000 troops (and the infrastructure to support them) trained and equipped for the poor terrain.

China continues to violate Japanese territorial waters around the Senkaku Islands.

And more on the port in Sri Lanka that China basically acquired. I mentioned this before. Sri Lanka's navy will lease space there, which is a nice way to make sure it could handle Chinese naval vessels, eh?

China continues to work on Dystopian State Beta Version in Xinjiang province.

And other stuff.