This article discusses China's efforts to build a "new Silk Road" to the interior of Asia and possibly all the way to Europe, as part of an effort to build energy pipelines overland to the Middle East.
Ports in Pakistan to receive tankers from the Middle East and Sudan would also bypass the choke point at the Straits of Malacca.
All this would lessen China's reliance on their energy imports that must run a gauntlet through the Indian Ocean and through the South China Sea.
The article wonders if this will affect China's policies to the east:
For countries east of the Malacca Straits, it remains to be seen how China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea and East China Sea will be altered by the completion of new supply routes.
Although it is unrealistic to expect China to abandon its goal of becoming a maritime power, one might reasonable hope that China will adopt a slightly more relaxed posture to its east once it has achieved new energy security via its west.
When Taiwan is a core interest and China seeks to dominate the seas and island chains off their coast, I highly doubt that China's policies will "relax" in any meaningful sense of the term.
What I expect is that an inland focus will dilute China's rising military power. Without the Soviet Union and with the Himalaya Mountains constraining land warfare with India, China has been free to focus on air and naval power to confront America and our allies at sea to China's east.
If China has major supply lines to Asia, China will need to divert air power to the interior and spend money on land power to protect those interests.
And this inland focus won't end China's need to protect sea lines of communication. China will still import energy by sea, either through the South China Sea to Chinese ports or even to Pakistan or Burma (Myanmar) for transport overland via pipelines to China. China will also still need to export by sea. So a blockade of China will still hurt China's economy even if China is able to import all the energy it needs.
And our air power will not be incapable of attacking those land-based pipelines.
Russia is bound to react eventually and reinforce their Far East and Central Asian forces rather than blather on about NATO plots to destroy Russia.
And China will put themselves into further confrontation with India which has a Look East policy of extending friendships and influence into Southeast Asia.
Nobody ever has enough power to do everything. But China's rising power makes them want all they've long been denied and which they believe is theirs.
So China will be both a land power and a sea power (with air power supporting both), meaning they will be less able to dominate either realm.
I do love it when a plan comes together.
