Russia is restoring their military presence in the Arctic after leaving in 1993 in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union:
Two decades after abandoning it, Russia has sent 10 warships behind four nuclear-powered ice breakers to the base on the Novosibirsk Islands, a show of force as it resumes a permanent naval presence in the thawing region.
The flotilla was led by Russia's flagship nuclear-powered cruiser, Peter the Great, along the Northern Sea Route, which connects Europe to Asia across Russian waters from the Kara Gate to the Bering Strait. ...
"We will not only reopen the military base but restore the airfield to working order and make it possible for the emergency services, hydrologists and climate specialists to work together to ensure the security and effective work of the Northern Sea Route."
The New Siberia island group is in the Far East, allowing Russia to project power into the polar region.
I think NATO should shift its focus 90 degrees north (directionally--and temperature-wise, too, figuratively) to face Russia across this new point of dispute. Russia may not be able to march west, but they can certainly move north into a relative vacuum if they choose. And unless NATO countries want to abandon their Arctic claims and opportunities to Russia, NATO countries have to pay attention, too.
Canada and America, once the NATO rear area, become the new front line along with Norway and Denmark (because of Greenland).
As NATO military power shrinks (and European NATO naval power is clearly shrinking), an Arctic focus can fit with this trend. Arctic operations don't require massed forces. Operations there require smaller forces, well-equipped and trained to operate in the deadly environment of the region.
NATO could build smaller active power projection forces--some for the arc of crisis from West Africa to Central Asia and some for Arctic operations--while they retain a small core of conventional armored forces backed by reserves just in case Russia becomes a conventional threat one day.
