Strategypage addresses Iran's role in Syria and the sanctions that are biting into Iran.
Syria's bad position is indicated by the fact that 5,000 Hezbollah and foreign fighters being paid for by Iran are having a major impact as shock troops for Assad.
And the money to pay these guys and substitute for the lack of an economy to pay for the Syrian government is hurting Iran. Syria is thinking about going back to a highly controlled economy to prioritize their shrinking resources, but that won't make people too happy.
Plus, sanctions on Iran are biting. Which leads to an interesting question.
Sanctions as a means of compelling a nation to do something don't have a good track record of success. The idea of sanctions is that they are an alternative to war.
But if sanctions don't bite enough, the target endures and does not change their behavior. So far Iran is enduring and still going nuclear, supporting terrorism, and backing Assad.
If sanctions hurt enough to make Iran ponder changing course, Iran is more likely to think of sanctions as an act of war rather than an alternative to war. Think Japan after our oil embargo but before Pearl Harbor.
If Iran decides to fight, would they fight America? That would be suicidal.
So how about the United Arab Emirates? The UAE has been a major supporter of Syrian rebels. Yet the UAE isn't as strong as Saudi Arabia. (And let's not speak of taking on the Turks.)
Iran would even have an excuse to go to war with the UAE:
An Iranian news agency says the foreign minister has called on the United Arab Emirates not to deport its nationals.
The Iranian media has reported that the UAE has repatriated an unspecified number of Iranians amid tensions between the two countries linked to Syria's civil war. Shiite Iran backs Syrian President Bashar Assad, a member of a Shiite offshoot sect, while the Sunni-majority UAE and Saudi Arabia support the mostly Sunni rebels.
Would Iran react to sanctions and the expense of Syria by deciding the pain is equivalent to war? And then choose to strike at the UAE rather than the protected Saudis or American directly?
