Friday, February 18, 2011

Indian Ocean?

Somalia's pirates have not been defeated by the convoys at sea despite occasional periods of reduced pirate captures of ships. That success was only a pause as the pirates adapted to the passive naval tactics of protecting some ships and refusing to kill or imprison pirates captured. What incentive was there for pirates to stop?

A US admiral states the obvious:

Foreign navies have stepped up operations off the Gulf of Aden since 2008. But Willard said there was ultimately not a naval solution.

"I don't think you're ever going to defeat this threat at the far extremes of their operations on the sea lanes," Willard said.

"But rather you have to go to the centres of gravity -- the source on land in the Horn of Africa -- and put a stop to that," he said.

Well, yes. I've long felt that a mission ashore in Somalia would be the way to go. I once thought that Egypt, because of their interest in keeping Suez Canal revenue up, could form the core of an intervention force, along with our troops. The revolt in Egypt ends that idea for some time now as the Egyptians focus inward. The United States is highly unlikely to commit ground forces these days, given our fighting commitments, budget, and leadership.

With the pirates possibly heading for Asian waters to adapt to naval patrols closer to Somalia, perhaps India would be the nation to provide the core land force around which an intervention force would be organized. India is used to contributing forces for UN missions and has disciplined troops.

If India wants to be the power in the Indian Ocean, leading this mission would burnish their credentials.

UPDATE: Hmmm. Maybe I'm too quick to think we won't do anything:

The United States government on Saturday said it was assessing possible responses after Somali pirates hijacked a yacht with four Americans on board in the Arabian sea off the coast of Somalia.

One, yes the Americans are idiots for yachting in that area.

But that would be a pretext for action. I wonder if we and the Indian government could organize a coalition Of Indian Ocean rim states (like Australia and Kenya--and maybe the African Union to broaden the scope) to go ashore with the troops of our two nations providing the bulk of the force. I'm not thinking we should land and try to nation-build. Let's go ashore for several months to tear up the pirates (and jihadis while we are there), and set up locals who will hold the ports with our financial and offshore naval support (and special forces and drones in Djibouti).

Once we've cleaned out the pirates and gotten hostages from captured ships out (although some would die, I'm afraid, as pirates lashed out in defeat), it would be far easier to strike any regrouping pirates from the sea and air since there would be no hostages to stay our hand. In the long run, merchant ship crewmen would be safer even if there are casualties in the short run among hostages. If it makes you feel better, the pirates are getting worse anyway:

Pirates have recently tied hostages upside down and dragged them in the sea, locked them in freezers, beaten them and used plastic ties around their genitals, the commander of the European Union anti-piracy force, Maj. Gen. Buster Howes told AP this month.

This coalition approach would help cement a US-India-Australian alliance to our mutual benefit, relieve the stress of deploying as much of our Navy there and advance India's profile as an emerging power. African states would gain by knocking down piracy and jihadis that threaten their own neighborhood.