Monday, October 12, 2009

The Center Cannot Hold

Cordesman has a good column on framing the debates we need on Afghanistan.

I particularly like this (because, of course, I fully agree with the premise):

Accept the fact that the Afghan government is years away from being an effective partner that success in building effective capacity, integrity, and presence is a major challenge. The elections have become a serious problem, but they are only a symptom of a far more serious disease. Afghans care far more about the quality of governance than how it is chosen and the corruption in the election scarcely came as a surprise.

No strategy can succeed which does not accept the fact that the Afghan central government is corrupt and lacks capacity, that even the best Afghan ministries and institutions require constant support and aid, that provincial and district government suffers from similar problems and chronic underfunding, and that there is no meaningful local Afghan government presence in as much as 40% of the country. This makes the Afghan government as much of a practical problem for the US and its allies as the Taliban and Al Qa'ida.

It may be possible to work around this in "shape, clear, hold, and build" by linking all funding of the central government to performance, direct funding of provincial and district governance, and direct funding of the local leaders and authorities in population centers and tribal areas. This, however, requires clear plans and proof that the proper mix of resources at each level of Afghan governance can be made available over time, that suitable fiscal controls and effectiveness measures will be present, and that a combination of civil and military advisors will be available.


As I've repeatedly argued, stabilizing "Afghanistan" does not mean that the central government of the nominal Afghanistan state must rule all of Afghanistan's territory. It never has done more than reign over the distant tribes. We must stabilize Afghanistan through whatever legitimate organs of power exist--local, tribal, provincial, and even national--rather than try to insist that only the national bodies are legitimate.