China may allow Taiwan, which the Chinese government considers a runaway province, to join world bodies including the World Health Organization through a process of talks, an official said.
Any attempt for Taiwan to join international bodies should be done through “a process of consultation, negotiation and mutual understanding,” the Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman Li Weiyi said today at a televised press briefing in Beijing. “That’s the overall direction that we’re progressing toward.”
China has been vigilant in denying Taiwan any type of role in any international body. Why relax that practice now?
Call me suspicious, but I have always expected a Chinese charm offensive prior to an actual offensive to conquer Taiwan in order to gain the element of surprise:
Surprise will be important. The Taiwanese military has problems but it is far from toothless. And US and Japanese naval and air power are capable of defeating the Chinese at sea and in the air. With tensions high over the obviously increased Chinese military capabilities and their long history of saying that Taiwan must be absorbed into China, a nice charm offensive will be in order to lull potential enemies. In late 2007, China could initiate or accept more cross-Strait talks on various issues. They might even—in the spirit of the Olympics—suggest talks on how to have the Taiwan athletes march in the opening ceremonies. Perhaps behind a symbolic contingent of all Chinese marching under the PRC flag, the remaining Chinese athletes will march in under flags of their home provinces, so the Taiwanese could march under the Taiwanese flag. Whatever the details, the point will be that the warm fuzzy of the Olympics will be used to create a false thaw after years of tension.
I was wrong on the timing, obviously. But the basic point remains regardless of when the Chinese decide to act. Before attacking, China would likely try to seem far less threatening. That's Sun Tzu 101.
The real problem for Taiwan is that Taiwan's belief that China is all warm and fuzzy now will dull their reaction to early signs of being attacked. Remember, gaining the element of surprise doesn't just mean hiding what you are doing from an enemy. It is in large measure manipulating the information so that your enemy believes they see what you want the enemy to see. The Taiwanese government could easily dismiss early ambiguous signals of a coming Chinese attack because the Taiwanese leaders fervently want to believe that their wise policy has ended the Chinese threat, and so reacting with even prudent defensive measures would jeapordize the thawing relations.
So what are the Chinese up to? Do you really believe they've abandoned their objective of absorbing Taiwan?
