Sunday, December 10, 2006

Disillusioned?

The growing consensus is that the Baker Commission and the November election won't really change our basic strategy in the Iraq War over at least the next couple years. I figured that was the case right after the election, despite my own immediate discouragement of what the election and pending report might mean.

Now consider that the Iraqi Sunni terrorists and insurgents of both the Baathist and jihadi variety may have a lot invested in the idea that our will was broken and we will withdraw from Iraq. This would leave them the chance to somehow overcome the majority Shias and Kurds. The Sunnis may have been getting smashed up all over Iraq, but in the nick of time we will pull a withdrawal and save them.

So, with each passing month where our forces go out and kill terrorists and jihadis with no sign we are about to pull out, will the enemy foot soldiers get seriously discouraged?

I'm not trying to put a smiley face on the situation. But consider that the enemy may have worked themselves up into a supreme effort to attack and affect our elections the last several months. Having succeeded (in their minds even if not true objectively) in getting Congress to flip party control, have the enemy convinced themselves they won the war?

If so, as we continue to fight even with the opposition party controlling Congress, a sense of futility could infect the enemy and lead to elements quitting the fight.

I don't know. But it is a possibility considering that I think the Sunni Arabs are on the verge of being wiped out in Iraq and all their talk of ultimate victory is simply farcical.