Wednesday, March 29, 2006

New Enemy Strategy?

Attacks on civilian workers in Baghdad appear to be on the rise.

Is this an admission by the enemy that attacks on religious targets won't inspire civil war? Why switch to these targets when so many think Iraq is on the verge of civil war? This seems to be more like an attempt to attack the economy rather than the religious division.

The press makes it sound like a successful ploy but I don't know nearly enough to make that call. It is something new, so is worrisome. But I don't know yet if I should be concerned about the latest apparent strategy.

Still, I keep in mind that the enemy doesn't seem to have enough discipline to stick with a strategy until it bears fruit. I've said from early on (at least summer 2004) that if the enemy had concentrated on attacking US troops despite the casualties the enemy endured, they might have broken our public's will to fight while avoiding angering the Shia majority. But the enemy has switched emphasis from time to time. This has been a weakness of our enemy.

Nothing else the enemy has done has stopped progress from being made in creating a government and building Iraqi security forces. But I think there is reason to wonder if we have turned over too much of Baghdad too soon to Iraqi control. Again, I don't know enough to judge whether this is a cause for worry. It may be that it will simply take time for Iraqi forces to adapt to the new threat.

But I will watch this trend, that's for sure.