"Within a decade, Taiwan would be incapable of mounting any kind of credible defense, and the island would become nothing more than a security protectorate of the United States," said Ted Carpenter, a defense analyst of the Cato Institute in New York.
As a rule, I have little use for Carpenter's policy solutions since they tend to be acceptance of losing since winning will cost too much. Still, I think he notes the facts correctly: the current trend will in time leave Taiwan unable to defend itself.
But don't think that the problem is a decade away. Getting weapons is a long process involving purchasing, acquiring or building them, training the troops or sailors, and incorporating the weapons into the military to use them effectively. If Taiwan decided to buy them tonight, it will be years before Taiwan gets them and years more to be able to use them. And problems could arise earlier as one Taiwan military expert warns:
For the next two to three years, Taiwan is probably okay. But there is no doubt the balance is tilting in China's favor. We need to take action before it is too late."
The next two or three years? Hmm. What's taking place in 2008? Why yes, the Olympics in Peking. I've noted that I think the period before the Olympics would be an ideal time for China to invade Taiwan. The element of surprise would be great. And by the eve of the Olympics, as the above article notes, Taiwan might be in danger. And is the analyist counting on a Chinese crash building program that will add more capability than is readily apparent?
Even if China would need a full decade to virtually guarantee a win, internal developments might lead China to invade when they have a chance at success. Remember that Argentina invaded the Falklands while Britain still had the amphibious assets to liberate the islands. Had the Argentinians waited a few more years, Britain might have been incapable of invading at all since the amphibious ships were slated for retirement. But internal Argentinian political developments led to a premature attack. Given instability in China, the same could happen over Taiwan.
People who like to argue that China is too patient to invade mistake passive inaction with patience. China has waited more than fifty years. Doesn't that count as patience?
