I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump items on my Substack "Notes" section.
Could North Korea in 2025 follow the logic of a Kooks, Spooks, and Nukes strategy that downgrades the army to save money by selling to Russia a majority of their 3,500+ old tanks in order to keep Russia's tank force in action against Ukraine?
Ukraine likes their M777 155mm howitzers despite losing half to destruction or damage: "Despite these losses both sides find their howitzers extremely useful and effective doing jobs drones can’t handle."
Win-win: "Russia accepted the Chinese proposals for allowing Chinese farmers to enter the underused central Russian and far eastern farmlands. The large number of Chinese farmers would produce a lot more food, which the Chinese were willing to pay for." Food safe from blockade. And colonists in place.
I was informed it was a "peace dividend": "When looking at the maritime industrial base, it was post-Cold War budget cuts in the mid-1990s that led to reduced maritime production and left the once-robust industry fractured and fragile."
More on the pogrom in Amsterdam. The attackers are scum, of course. But where were the police both during and after the soccer match when the organized assaults on Jewish fans took place? Shame.
Putting the Indian in Indian Ocean: "As India eyes the prospect of more Chinese and Pakistani warships and submarines traversing the Indian Ocean, Delhi is boosting its nuclear-powered submarine fleet."
Killing enemies is good: "US Central Command (CENTCOM) has conducted strikes against nine Iranian-backed militia targets in Syria since CTP-ISW's data cutoff on November 10."
Pre-boot camp training. School and play no longer routinely provide the raw material to turn into soldiers.
This is unnecessary. Of course soldiers are required to disobey unlawful orders. I was taught that as an enlisted soldier. No, this is bizarre panic. And the president can fire any soldier. If this is going on I think Trump can justifiably say he has a "loss of confidence" in a lot of officers. As have I.
Okay, I link this not for politics but to ask how are we not living in a simulation? "A batty professor named Arlene Battishill came to represent the disappointed female voter demographic ..." Battishill? Batty shill?? At least the designers have a sense of humor, eh? I really wish I wasn't playing on the free version.
A provider--not only a consumer--of Western security: "South Korea is the 10th largest defense manufacturer in the world. That’s up from 13th a few years earlier. In 2024 South Korea was number 8 with a 2.8 percent share of defense exports." South Korea exports to allies.
The wild blue yonder: Ukraine has 20 of 100 F-16s promised. "These jets stay at least
40 kilometers from the Russian border because of the massive number of
anti-aircraft missile systems stationed there." Ukraine doesn't have weapons to suppress air defenses. Or stealth planes.
Sure, fan the flames of my worries that the networked F-35 is vulnerable to hacking.
Which is the bigger clue bat, ongoing Russian aggression or imminent Trump pressure? "A majority of Germans support significant defense spending increases, an outlook that coincides with the imminent return of Donald Trump to the White House[.]"
Explain to me again why we had to retreat from Afghanistan because it cost too much: "The U.S. has spent more than $14 billion to rescue and resettle Afghans in the U.S. over the last three years[.]" And $6.5 billion to subsidize the Taliban with "humanitarian" and banking aid! Other costs will come.
I've long thought China can't assume North Korea is a firm ally. I think that while China benefited from North Korea developing nukes that worry Japan, South Korea, and America, China should worry about actual North Korean nukes as much as the others.
I heard a Times podcast guest call Russian soldiers "battle hardened." I think it is more like "battle shattered." I remember analysts calling the Iraqi army in 1990 "battle hardened" because of the long Iran-Iraq War. It was no such thing then and no such thing now for Russia.
Hopefully this is just Europhiles picking up on a European Union wet dream: "a Trump administration is likely to pull back and largely leave Europe to Europeans." We must resist "European" strategic autonomy. Euros want that regardless of the American president.
Don't over-hype the Russia-China partnership: "Russia will not long tolerate its increasingly [vassal]-like status to China." Yes, they are frenemies with temporary benefits. But Germany and Japan weren't tight, integrated allies in World War II. So what exists isn't insignificant if China tolerates this relationship.
Navy support ships need to be armed for self defense. And perhaps supplement their defense with modularized auxiliary cruisers through higher threat areas. And such ships would be good escorts for equally slow cargo ships, no?
Sh*t got real: "The US Army will begin producing locally manufactured Trinitrotoluene (TNT), often regarded as the world’s most powerful non-nuclear explosive, for use in bombs, hand grenades, and 155 mm artillery shells after nearly 4 decades [of only importing it]."
Subliminal war: "China is stepping up pressure on the Philippines to concede its sovereign rights in the South China Sea, Manila's Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said on Tuesday after meeting his Australian counterpart in Canberra."
The Philippines fights lawfare with lawfare: "Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. enacted on Friday two laws bolstering his nation’s maritime claims, drawing criticism from Beijing as South China Sea tensions persist."
The war on terror is not over: " On Nov. 4, CENTCOM announced that U.S. and partner forces in Iraq and Syria had conducted 95 missions against ISIS in the past 60 days, which led to 163 suspected terrorists being killed and another 33 captured." Will we really repeat the mistake of Obama's 2011 withdrawal?
Never mind? "The Qatari Foreign Ministry emphatically denied reports of Hamas’s expulsion from Doha, after U.S. officials said that Qatar demanded the Palestinian terrorist group depart." Tip to Instapundit.
I'm fine with U.S. military support for UN missions, as we've long done. But never put American troops on the ground in blue helmets between warring parties. Troops from other countries can be target practice if their governments decide it is in their interest. Our troops should win. Who else can defend the West?
Germany is effing up on a broad front: "All of these factors are responsible for Germany’s two consecutive years of recession. But even more significantly, its great manufacturing industries – chemical, engineering and automotive – are all in crisis at the same time." Can Britain avoid the same mistakes?
How brave to sail there during peacetime: "A Russian Navy warship equipped with hypersonic missiles has conducted drills in the English Channel, Russian state news agencies reported on Tuesday." That warship would lead a short but exciting life during war.
To be fair, Iran is our active enemy: "Today, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted strikes against an Iranian-backed militia group’s weapons storage and logistics headquarters facility [in Syria]. These strikes were in response to a rocket attack on U.S. personnel at Patrol Base Shaddadi."
Hmmm: "The Trump transition team is considering a draft executive order that establishes a 'warrior board' of retired senior military personnel with the power to review three- and four-star officers and to recommend removals of any deemed unfit for leadership." I never said all are worthy of dismissal.
Familiarization is the first step: "The personal relationships soldiers are building in dozens of training exercises each year with partners throughout the Indo-Pacific are the true strength of U.S. Army Pacific[.]" Crawl, walk, run.
Hmmm: "Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has accused Israel of carrying out 'collective genocide' in Gaza, in some of his strongest criticism of the country since the war began last year." Is this a shift against Israel or a sign that war is nearly over, so just a verbal point to cover his base.
Interesting: "The FSB failure in opposing the Ukrainian [Kursk] incursion was caused by FSB preoccupation with investigating internal enemies and those suspected of opposing Vladimir Putin." When you already know what the threat is, contrary information is obviously disinformation.
Iran wages war on America: "The US Navy defeated a complex attack launched by the Houthis on Monday that saw the rebels fire several missiles and drones at two American warships off the coast of Yemen, a Pentagon spokesperson said on Tuesday."
This wasn't enough: "US forces carried out precision airstrikes against multiple Houthi weapons storage facilities in Yemen over the weekend. He said the operation involved F-35 stealth aircraft[.]"
Taiwan's decommissioned Hawk air defense missiles may somehow end up in Ukraine.
China seized the shoal in 2012: "The Philippines has protested China’s baselines around the disputed Scarborough Shoal, as tensions between the two nations build up anew over their competing claims in the South China Sea." China's subliminal war continues under color of law.
Is the West emerging from its era of self-hatred to more confidently defend itself and its value?
It is true that the kill chain for destroying a carrier can go through the logistics vessels that keep it fighting. A logistics form of a mission kill still takes the carrier out of the fight.
Interesting: "The MQ-25 Stingray aerial refueler will be joining the new MQ-4C Triton sensor aircraft later in 2025, Vice Adm. George Wikoff, commander of U.S. Navy Central Command and Fifth Fleet[.]"
I believe framing this as a "loyalty review board" is propaganda: "Senior officers in the U.S. military are preparing after reports of a potential new review process for top generals, a review they fear will vet personal loyalty to President-elect Donald Trump." We need leadership focused on fighting and winning.
I hope Trump doesn't issue orders via social media for communications security reasons alone. But if he does, I stand by my position that they are valid orders. A new medium doesn't change that aspect.
The long farewell nears the end: "The U.S. Air Force will start withdrawing its A-10 aircraft from Osan Air Base, South Korea, the Thunderbolt II’s last overseas location, starting in January."
The Air Force's "force design is focused on identifying the best mix of capabilities, systems, technologies, and personnel to achieve all of the Air Force’s five core functions[.]"
Arming up: "The Latvian Ministry of Defence has selected the Ascod infantry fighting vehicle for the country’s armed forces[.]" ASCOD has many variants, including a "medium main battle tank," however that is defined.
Russia doesn't have control of the Black Sea and doesn't like that. Sure, Russia could use the sea more if it controlled it. But it has other means of conducting those missions. Ukraine is to be commended for sinking so many ships. But I suspect Russia decided no objective is worth further losses.
That's the $64,000 question: "Ukraine has a plan and so does Putin. When the plans collide, who will win?"
Russia's sledgehammer blows in the Donbas and Kursk--plus others?--could overwhelm Ukraine: "If Ukraine doesn’t find the solutions for these challenges, it seems that the war will enter into the dangerous stage of constant retreat of Ukraine." I worry about that. But I don't assume Russia can pay the price.
America's Aegis Ashore air defense system is online in Poland: "The Redzikowo base, 230 kilometers (143 miles) from the Russian border, has been operational since July but was officially inaugurated only on Wednesday."
The East China Sea gets less attention than the South China Sea, but China has territorial ambitions there, too: "Warships and aircraft from the United States, Japan and South Korea gathered in the East China Sea on Wednesday to kick off their second large-scale exercise of the year."
Looking North: "American, Canadian and [Finnish] officials committed to the joint development, construction and maintenance of polar icebreakers with the signing of the Icebreaker Collaborative Effort Pact in Washington today."
Israel believes its October strike on Iran reduced Iran's missile production capacity to 10% of pre-strike capacity. How long will that last? Can and will Russia make up for lost explosives production capacity? Tip to Instapundit.
Ukraine says it could build nuclear weapons if it has no other means to protect its security from Russia. But it cant' enrich to bomb levels any time soon. Maybe the better issue is whether Ukraine squirreled away some warheads--now inert, no doubt--from their old Soviet arsenal as a needed insurance policy.
From the "Well, duh" files: "Western sanctions and the war in Ukraine have deeply impacted Russia’s economy, as seen in the weakening ruble, increasing reliance on China, and signs of Russia potentially becoming a subordinate economic partner to China rather than an equal." China exploits Russia's need.
There will be a Block 8 Virginia SSN before a new sub: "SSN(X) is billed as a return to a prior generation of attack submarine optimized for blue water missions with a weapons room more in line with the Seawolf-class boats, USNI News previously reported.
Chinese-Russian Arctic cooperation. I don't see what China gains from strengthening Russia there. Sure, in peacetime China potentially gets a sea route to Europe. But that won't last during war. And if China fights Russia, Russian supply lines are better between west and east. Are they really more than frenemies?
Is this true? "The problem with [renting troops] is that Kim is probably not sending
personnel from unreliable families to Russia, fearing that they would
defect. Kim likely felt he could afford to send soldiers from
politically elite families." I think Kim can't risk survivors coming home to "infect" others.
After Ukraine, Russia may need a less defended front to pressure: "The United States and its allies in the Arctic need to increase the number of sensors, patrols and intelligence sharing in the region to contain the expansion of Russian and Chinese forces in the far north, defense leaders said at the meeting this week."
France is wrapping up the training of an entire Ukrainian brigade "armed with France-supplied tanks, artillery canons and other heavy weaponry." Will France sustain the brigade with replacement equipment and trained troops?
What's "Tora! Tora! Tora!" in Chinese characters? "For over a year U.S. Marine Corps F-35B vertical takeoff (VTOL) fighters have operated from one of the two new Japanese aircraft carriers to test their flight decks for heat resistance to the F-35 B's engines." But don't call them aircraft carriers.
Unlike the mythical underground lair of Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan, Hamas built well: "Years of effort has produced hundreds of kilometers of tunnels. ... When the IDF recently set out to destroy the tunnel system they were shocked at how extensive it was and how resistant it was to attack."
Thunder in their minds: "In late October 2024, Russia conducted its normally annual large strategic nuclear exercise. Russia frequently calls it Grom (Thunder in Russian) although this latest exercise was unnamed." It's supposed to scare us. But it doesn't reflect reality. Precedent suggests Putin is oblivious.
American special forces are reverting from the War on Terror direct action mission to the prior one of training allied troops. China is a big focus on Taiwan and I assume special forces training involves preparing the Taiwanese for irregular and insurgent fighting should China invade Taiwanese territory.
Sh*t got real: "Norwegian defense firm Kongsberg won a five-year contract from the US Navy worth around US$900 million to supply anti-ship missiles, in what the company says is its biggest missile contract ever."
Appeasement? "Indonesia’s new president, Prabowo Subianto, needed only three weeks in office to make three big concessions to China. ... The shift is all the more demeaning for Indonesia because it closely followed a series of Chinese coast guard intrusions in late October[.]" He cashed China's check, it seems.
It is important to reduce corruption in Ukraine. It seemed like patriotism muted corruption in the emergency of Russia's 2022 invasion. Is the war so routine that corruption is making a comeback? On the bright side, it was never muted in Russia.
Well that's interesting: "Israel's Oct. 26 retaliatory strike on Iran 'destroyed an active top secret nuclear weapons research facility,' according to an Axios report." A warning of future strikes that Iran can't protest because officially it didn't exist.
China says the Philippines resupplied the Sierra Madre outpost ship at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea and rotated the garrison with the permission of the Chinese. Has China established control with only the date of denial of permission to resupply the only question?
Sounds like an easy target in war: "China has achieved a milestone in renewable energy with the connection of its first 1-gigawatt offshore photovoltaic (PV) project to the power grid."
Russia intends to freeze Ukrainian civilians: "NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has called on alliance members and other Western partners to provide more support for Ukraine as cold weather looms."
Good: "Israel's new defence minister, Israel Katz, has confirmed the conscription of thousands of ultra-Orthodox men planned by his predecessor." Relying on others to protect them from being massacred is immoral. And this will end an incentive to falsely claim to be ultra-Orthodox to avoid military service.
India can calm things down but can't cope while India relies on China economically: "China and India have no desirable 'normal' status quo to return to. Challenges abound in the bilateral relationship, and China’s ambitions continue to circumscribe India’s ability to act at the regional and global levels."
#YouInvadedUs: "The Ukrainian drone attacks are a form of psychological warfare against Russia and its people. Despite regular Russian pronouncements of victories in Ukraine, the drones keep coming and proving that Ukraine is not defeated and still very visibly fighting."
Good: "Vladimir Putin has ordered MSF or Médecins Sans Frontières/Doctors Without Borders to leave Russia." MSF has served to lessen the problem of Putin stripping medical personnel from the civilian world to cope with high war casualties.
Plans on paper always work: "The Navy is refining its plan to create an 80 percent combat-ready surge force to meet the deployment goals included CNO Adm. Lisa Franchetti’s new navigation plan, the service’s second-highest officer said." A refined plan will be awesome. Still, it's nice to have a goal.
We win. He loses: "Washington must recognize that it would be negotiating from a significant position of strength. If there is to be any meaningful engagement with Turkey, Washington should be explicit in its expectations." We have an Erdogan problem.
Hypersonic missiles go to sea: "The Navy wants to start testing its Conventional Prompt Strike missile system aboard guided-missile destroyer USS Zumwalt (DG-1000) in 2027 or 2028, the admiral overseeing the effort said Thursday."
Tech. support for Ukraine: "NATO has moved its three decade-old reachback support operations to Poland. Reachback electronically connects troops in a combat zone with a large number of tech experts and other support personnel stationed anywhere else in the world, but generally in the US."
Has Israel developed the first working, mobile air defense laser?
