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Sunday, September 01, 2024

Weekend Data Dump

I also post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Give in to the Dark Side and subscribe. Hell, share links! I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. 

Hey! Another good jihadi!

Sanctions are a struggle of imposing, enforcing, and evading them: "The U.S. imposed sweeping sanctions Friday on hundreds of firms in Russia and across Europe, Asia and the Middle East, accusing them of providing products and services that enable Russia’s war effort and aiding its ability to evade sanctions."

Holding a win a quarter century later: "More than 100 personnel from the Idaho Army National Guard deployed to Kosovo for a year-long mission on Thursday. The unit has been training for the mission since October 2022."

Still looking for answers to what happened when the Confederate "submarine" Hunley sank the Union warship USS Housatonic. That was no submarine. It was a USV with a crew instead of engines and remote piloting.

Asian states reach our for NATO ties. I addressed NATO's pivot to Asia recently.

Fiends in need: "North Korea has been chronically short of food since the 1990s and additional Russian food supplies pay for the North Korean munitions going to Russia."

The Army has funds to continue low-level production of the M10 light tank. I have concerns. Although sure, maybe its not that less vulnerable than M1 tanks given modern threats. But unless the M10 is mass produced its just as expensive.

Missing the defeat forest for the chaos trees: "Biden Pentagon spokesman insisted Afghan withdrawal wasn't chaotic but his emails say otherwise[.]" Well of course it was chaotic. Even victory is. The issue is that the administration tries to pretend we didn't lose the war. America needlessly lost.

Taiwan wants to expand its planned submarine fleet with its locally designed sub. I've long wanted Taiwan to get new subs.

Getting rough: "A China Coast Guard ship and a Philippine vessel collided in a disputed patch of the South China Sea on Sunday, the latest in a series of incidents fueling tensions between the two nations."

Economists: "'an economic catastrophe is lurking beneath Russia’s GDP growth as Putin "throws everything into the fireplace".' Life has gotten much worse for all Russians." Hmm. Putin thinks he is dividing his domestic enemies to conquer them. He might just be setting up dominoes.

Again with the "failed pivot to Asia" nonsense? Once more with feeling, the claim is wrong. On ice

"Liberté, égalité, fraternité." Well, one out of three isn't that bad--if you are in Macron's fraternity. 

Ukraine is having success with its Bradley Fighting Vehicles. As one analyst noted correctly, with 300 Ukraine can use them and accept losses as the price of doing business--unlike the scarce Challenger and Abrams tanks. I think that caution is one reason for the failure of Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive. 

China has more territorial ambitions: "Close US ally Japan said it scrambled fighter jets on Monday after a Chinese military aircraft 'violated' its airspace in a further escalation of regional tensions." Strategery.

War games: "Taiwan drilled Monday with anti-amphibious landing missiles as part of strategy to remain mobile and deadly in an attempt to deter an attack from China, which claims the democratically ruled island as its own territory to be brought under its control by force if necessary." "Drive them into the sea."

One small step for a lizard. A giant leap for lizardkind: "Matching dinosaur footprints found on opposite sides of the Atlantic Ocean[.]" Tip to Instapundit.

Sh*t got real: "The U.S. military is open to consultations about escorting Philippine ships in the disputed South China Sea, the head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said Tuesday amid a spike in hostilities between Beijing and Manila in the disputed waters."

That's needed: "The Air Force worked with Denmark and Norway to reprogram the EW systems on the F-16s those countries and the Netherlands are providing to Ukraine."

The claimed meat shortage should have been anticipated by leadership. The real story is slovenly cadets: "The Air Force Academy restricted all cadets to the base as classes were getting started in early August to reinforce standards of cleanliness and personal appearance." Still, the superintendent expects better. Good.

Good: "Ukraine says it has a new long-range weapon to strike deep into Russia without asking permission from allies — a homegrown combination of missile and drone[.]" I thought this should have been within Ukraine's capabilities to do. It's taken much more time than I expected.

I think it is a bad idea to have a Space Force National Guard. A Space Force Reserve is better. When will a state governor need to mobilize state Space Force assets for a threat to the state apart from a national threat? A National Guard role makes no sense to me.

Should this carrier rally train in the Pacific for China rather than deploy for active threats? "The Pentagon has extended the deployment of the [Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group to maintain two carriers] after a largely failed attack by the Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah on Israel over the weekend." 

Counter-measures for Russia's Iranian-made Shahed 131 and 136 suicide drones are having an effect: "Their effectiveness in the Ukrainian theater, however, seems on a declining trajectory." Being the first with the most has advantages. Exploit the edge while you can, but an enemy eventually learns to cope.

Hmmm. Tip to Instapundit. You have to admit the unrequited love for mullah-run Iran is weird.

Hackers, GPS, and INS.

Taiwan will store large numbers of small drones on their islands off China's coast: "From there Taiwanese forces could launch these drones against nearby Chinese ports and military bases." If Chinese ships sail "for exercises" past those islands, will Taiwan really shoot first?

Since Russia--not Iran--is doing this, perhaps the administration will fight for Iraq: "The Kremlin may be leveraging the leadership of the prominent Kremlin-linked Rybar Telegram channel to set cultivate increased Russian influence in Iraq."

Chinese propaganda and espionage centers may be be making a comeback after drawing scrutiny: "Under the Trump administration (2017-2021), this scrutiny dramatically intensified, resulting in a wave of Confucius Institute closures across the United States." You'll recall the Confuse Us institutes.

America didn't "end" the war in Afghanistan. America surrendered in the war to the Taliban. Yes.

The glorious "sorting out" rages: "Oilfields in eastern Libya that account for almost all the country's production will be closed and production and exports halted, the eastern-based administration said on Monday, after a flare-up in tension over the leadership of the central bank."

How can government leaders believe submitting to Russia is a good idea?! "Pro-Western opponents of Georgia's government describe what they believe is a hybrid war for control by Russia and fear that an election in October could be the last chance to reverse the shift."

Defeat: "the US has given up on Operation Prosperity Guardian. It wasn’t deterring the Houthis and it wasn’t reassuring shipping so they might as well go and do something else." We lost the war. But claiming "kinetics" can't work is BS. Resolve Theater is what doesn't work.

Navy strategery. I have worries about Navy leadership.

Via Instapundit, twisted facts about Israel's war against Hamas. Hey, I tried to set the media straight.

Ukraine has apparently used their newly acquired F-16s for missile defense.

Marines are unofficially looking at how they'd fight in the conditions of Ukraine notwithstanding their loss of tanks and other weapons that leadership thinks is the price of facing China's navy.

Back in the early days of blogging a seriously doubted the validity of Haditha massacre allegations against U.S. troops in Iraq. The details seemed very wrong. I was wrong.

Tanks.

Van der Leyen's challenges only matter if you think the European Union should be an empire rather than a free-trade zone.

A call for an Army Air Air Force 2.0 for close air support. I do wonder if the Army would build attack helicopters if it could build aircraft. Heck, if the Army could build all supporting fires--an Army Fires Corps 1.0, what would it want?

And the cruisers begin to exit stage right

He wants to make sure Russia is the one to reject peace on day one if Trump is president: "Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday that he would eventually present a peace plan to President Biden and the current White House candidates, Vice President Harris and former President Trump. "

Is France flipping Serbia or just making some cash while arming a potential enemy: "Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic on Thursday announced a $3 billion deal to buy 12 French warplanes, in a move that shifts his country away from its dependence on Russian arms." We had a close call with Mistral ships.

Indonesia could use help and Australia could use a shield: "Indonesia and Australia signed a defense agreement on Thursday that both sides described as a significant upgrade to their military relationship."

For all the talk of Taiwan learning lessons from Ukraine, I think they need to learn from Poland: "the defense spending proposal would constitute 4.7% of gross domestic product, compared to 4.2% this year[.]" Taiwan doesn't spend like their life depends on it.

It will come in handy for Japan: "Japanese military officials have been invited on board an Italian aircraft carrier visiting Japan to see how F-35Bs operate from naval vessels as part of growing defense ties between Rome and Tokyo."

Hmmm. Have 180,000 Russian troops died in the war compared to 34,000 Ukrainians KIA plus 11,000 civilians killed? And are the wounded just twice as high as KIA? That seems a low ratio. Unless "wounded" is being defined to ignore light wounds that heal rapidly. 

Huh: "By extensively parsing Russian social media and news outlets, it chronicles that the events in Kursk have impacted popular support for the war among ordinary Russians, as well as increased their dissatisfaction with the Kremlin."

Diversity is their--oh, never mind: "A cost-benefit analysis of the kind of migration Europe is experiencing at the moment reveals that it is almost all cost, with hardly any benefits."

Why doesn't Iron Dome win a war? Because you can't kill the rain and ultimate rocket defense means your troops stand on the enemy rocket-launching sites. Remember that Iron Dome was originally designed to protect only strategic infrastructure. Pesky voters demanded they be protected, too.

Russian elites view of "peace": "A large majority wanted an early cease-fire roughly along the existing battle lines. There is high confidence that the Ukrainian military will never be able to break through and reconquer significant amounts of Ukraine’s lost territories."

Yeah, I mentioned this issue last week: "The U.S. Air Force’s plan to operate from an expanded network of bases around the Pacific is facing a familiar but fundamental challenge: how to protect those locations from a Chinese missile attack." 

The Army goes big on small Switchblade suicide drones. Hopefully they can be quickly altered to cope with enemy counter-measures. 

Firing the air force commander after Ukraine lost a new F-16 seems to indicate Ukraine shot down their own plane, eh?

Is this true? "Putin has lost power and prestige since 2022 and now Russians and Ukrainians both agree that everyone would be better off if Putin were gone." I wouldn't count on that meaning anything. 

IAEA: "Iran has further increased its stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels in defiance of international demands[.]" The mullahs are nuts--not stupid: "If enrichment triggers an Israeli or even an American strike, Iran would want nukes before it can produce the warhead material itself."

Is anybody really shocked? "The Taliban has helped Al Qaeda build its infrastructure after the US withdrawal. [CIA] Deputy Director Cohen is either ignorant of the facts or politically compromised." Seriously.

No Taliban 2.0. But our best and brightest told me they were new and improved! Now with nuance!

Ultimatum? "China on Thursday told the Philippines to "immediately withdraw" its coastguard ship from hotly contested Sabina Shoal in the South China Sea after a helicopter airdropped supplies for the ship's crew."

Western sanctions are biting Russia's economy, military production, and standard of living. Putin maintains a Potemkin Village facade of inevitable victory fueled by what he wants the West to believe is inexhaustible recruits and an economy that spits at Western sanctions. If we fall for that, he wins.

The cart before the horse? "Back in mid-2023, NATO members agreed to work with Ukraine to achieve defensive capabilities that can deter future Russian aggression once the current war with Russia is over." It's necessary. But focus on winning this war, okay? 

Better an imperfect ally than an enemy helping jihadis: "United States and Iraqi military forces conducted a raid in western Iraq that targeted ISIS leaders and killed 15 ISIS militants, U.S. Central Command said in a statement." Too many don't appreciate this.

The sneaky saboteurs managed to infiltrate socialists into the entire government: "Venezuela Slowly Powers Up After Claiming ‘Sabotage’ of Grid[.]"  

China exploited Covid to complete its conquest of the city: "Hong Kong has become the major source for supplying sanctioned nations with weapons and munitions. A current customer is Russia."

Is the M1A2 SEPv3 the greatest tank ever? A good case. And it needs "explosive reactive armor and a Trophy Active Protection System ". But it's damn expensive. Can we ever have enough at that price? . Is it the tank we need for the future?

I hope our friends we abandoned in Afghanistan will fight the Taliban again--and win. I thought we should have persisted even after losing. But I also worry that people will rise up more interested in collecting money in exile than fighting the Taliban.

More territorial ambitions: "'Russia is talking about attacking the Baltic states just because they can,' former Russian Parliament member Gennady Gudkov told The Daily Beast." But how would Putin attack?

Collusion with an enemy or simply useful idiots? Tip to Instapundit.

I'm not really reassured: "To be clear, I do not think the U.S. and China will go to war. The U.S. has little to gain and much to lose. China has a more complex decision to make and may be open to a war in Asia but is wary of any naval war." Will needs for markets and investment push us to get along? Maybe.

Israel faces the dilemma of fighting around Gazans who fanatically support Hamas that kills in their name. I worried about this situation because we rely on a "hearts and minds" approach to defeating insurgents. Sometimes hostile  hearts only follow minds that fear their fate more than anything.