The Kursk incursion is settling down with Ukraine not advancing much, seemingly hoping that it will cheaply gain border territory to the west of its salient by crippling Russian supply lines across a river. Russia is setting up blocking positions without appearing to want to spend the effort to drive the Ukrainians out. The Russians have prioritized the drive on Pokrovsk in the Donbas. Who wins that campaign?
Pokrovsk is a key crossroad. By all rights, Ukraine should have committed the resources to stop the Russian drive that has continued since Russia outflanked Avdiivka--rather than fighting a frontal assault through the city as at Bakhmut--and compelled Ukraine to retreat from the city. But Russia keeps slowly pushing its salient toward Pokrovsk while also widening the salient to reduce the risk of a Ukrainian counter-attack cutting off the troops at the tip of the salient.
Indeed, some Russian milbloggers speculate that Ukraine is drawing Russian troops into a trap.
Maybe. It's something that makes sense. Ukraine may hold the line at Pokrovsk against an exhausted Russian ground force. that force could lack sufficient reserves because Ukraine's Kursk incursion has compelled Russia to send forces on other sectors inside Ukraine back to Russia. If Ukraine has sufficient reserves, the Russian salient would be vulnerable to a sizable counter-attack.
This is something I've long wanted, since the salient was much smaller. Maybe the Russian milbloggers are on to something. Maybe Ukraine is slowly losing ground to punish the Russians while encouraging the Russians to continue attacking and dying. Maybe the Kursk incursion has soaked up needed reserves in Ukraine.
Heck, as long as I'm wishing,maybe the Ukrainians have buries explosives at a key site that the Russians capture. Maybe its a key supply intersection. Maybe a likely headquarters or supply location. If Ukraine blows that as the counter-attack begins, the Russian defenders might be thrown into confusion.
But this is sheer speculation, of course. It makes sense. But I have no idea if Ukraine has the troops and ammunition to pull off such an attack. Although Ukraine's Kursk incursion certainly served to demonstrate that Ukrainian units could penetrate a lightly fortified line held by shaky troops. Can Ukraine repeat that at the Avdiivka salient? Could Ukraine hide the movement of the units at Kursk that achieved the breakthrough to pounce on the Avdiivka salient?
But even as I look for the medium-sized victory at Avdiivka, my mind returns to the Kherson front:
At this point Russia just doesn’t have enough locomotives and rail cars to move everything it needs to move right now! One result of this is that the Russian 7th Guards tank division is being moved by its own vehicles from the Kherson area in southwest Ukraine 900 kilometers to Rostov and then another 900 kilometers north to Kursk. Given Russian truck drivers and roads, the 7th Guards will be incapable of combat when it arrives.
Interesting. The ground won't stay dry forever. I don't know how the war will develop this month.
Something is going to change. Either Ukraine pulls off something like my speculation(s). Or Russia captures Pokrovsk and places Ukrainian units east of the small city in danger of losing sufficient supplies to hold the line.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.