America is absolutely pivoting its military to Asia. But that doesn't mean Europe and the Middle East aren't in need of our military might, too.
Robert Blackwill and Richard Fontaine demonstrate in their insightful new book, Lost Decade, [that] the United States has repeatedly failed to achieve its promised shift [to Asia and the Pacific]. The efforts of successive administrations to complete the pivot, they write, have “foundered on the shoals of execution.” The United States has continued to allocate more military resources and pay more attention to the Middle East and Europe.
Insightful? Hardly. They're foundering on the shoals of reality.
Since the Cold War ended, American military strength in Europe has been slashed. Even additional forces sent since Russia invaded Ukraine have barely dented that dramatic decline.
And American force levels in the Middle East are a fraction of what they were during the height of the war on Islamist terrorists. Hell, I'm suffering from whiplash after pondering the claim that we've abandoned the Middle East.
Even deployments to help Israel fend off the Iran-led war on Israel have not dented that decline. Hell, we pivoted away from the Middle East so thoroughly that we screwed the pooch in Afghanistan and needlessly lost that front in the war on terror.
Don't get me started on Africa, where sending Austin significantly increased our footprint.
The problem is that people claiming that we have not pivoted to Asia do not account for several factors.
First, our military has been slashed deeply for a "peace dividend." Remember the Ten Year Medium Term Rule that justified cutting military power? That also gutted our defense industrial base, as the Russian invasion of Ukraine has dramatically exposed.
So the pivot-blind don't count that America has basically kept its force levels in Asia and the Pacific intact even as overall military forces were cut since the end of the Cold War.
Nor do such critics account for the fact that America has allocated its best quality assets to Asia and the Pacific. Like this:
Fleets of new and updated fighter jets will be placed at U.S. military bases in Japan, a notable defense development and financial investment in the Pacific as tensions continue to rise with China.
Nor do they see that our allies and friends in Asia are increasing their military capabilities to oppose China, Russia, and/or North Korea.
And in some cases, the call for a pivot is simply a tactic to hide an urge to never confront the enemies we have now with a facade of resolve to face the nebulous more important enemy of tomorrow.
First I had to grind my teeth that people ignored our gradual shift to the Pacific since after the Cold War to praise Obama's pivot announcement as the greatest strategic utterance since Clausewitz. When it was minor except rhetorically and really about covering his retreat from the Middle East.
But I digress. Sort of.
FFS. Enemies are waging war on the West in Europe and the Middle East right now. But we're supposed to pretend this isn't a threat and reduce our forces and actions even more than we have in those regions?
A decade hasn't been lost failing to pivot. People have just lost their friggin' minds. Again.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.