As I note in my Sources and Methods page, if you visit only one page for defense and security information, go to Strategy Page. And subscribe to keep them going. They are one of my few subscriptions.
To review, American progressives think October 7th was justified "resistance"; and January 6th was an evil "insurrection". Dissent in America went from the highest form of patriotism during the Iraq War to the highest form of Nazism now.
Ukraine is buying more French Caesars: "Ukraine found that this novel truck mounted 155mm howitzer was more effective than towed or conventional self-propelled artillery systems that ran on tracks, like a tank." To be fair to tracked systems, it's a static front with roads behind the lines.
Good, if it spreads: "Since late 2023 Ukrainian troops have increasingly encountered Russian
troops who would surrender at the first opportunity and often do it in a
dramatic fashion." But Ukraine needs to hit the Russians hard to help that along. So far that desire to surrender is isolated.
So if you were just outside the Capitol Building standing around on January 6, 2021, and didn't hurt anybody, steal anything, or damage anything, our government will go after you. That doesn't sound fascist, or anything. Via Instapundit.
So Chinese "recreational" boaters in a tiny boat sailed to Guam of all places for fun? "The U.S. Coast Guard, Navy and Guam first responders worked together over the weekend to rescue six Chinese boaters in distress off Guam’s coast."
We don't have many shipyards. So faster construction is one solution: "As the builder of the U.S. Navy’s new Constellation frigates tries to ramp up schedules in Wisconsin, it is sending in the robots."
About Xi's military purges: "The corruption inside China’s Rocket Force and throughout the nation’s defense industrial base is so extensive that US officials now believe Xi is less likely to contemplate major military action in the coming years than would otherwise have been the case[.]"
Government job statistics have been rolled back for 2023. But the monthly headlines relied on the initial inflated false numbers. Tip to Instapundit.
Russia has been throwing elbows at Japan. So: "Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa met with top officials in Poland on Monday to strengthen ties with the NATO nation, which borders Ukraine." And she visited Ukraine.
Danger zone: "The Israeli military said Sunday that Hezbollah struck an air traffic control base in northern Israel and warned of 'another war' with the Lebanon-based militant group as tensions in the region rise." I suspect it would be a deep war.
I'm so old I remember when progressives wanted to be China only for a day.
Fight drones with fighter drones. Welcome to the party, pal. I argued for that in Army magazine in 2018.
No más "New York City has sued 17 charter bus companies that transported migrants from Texas, the mayor, Eric Adams, announced on Thursday." Shouldn't NYC--an illegal migrant sanctuary-- pay to rescue migrants from MAGA hell holes? Via Instapundit. And now for something completely different:
Monday was fun. And tense. In a long period from the 2nd into the 4th quarter, the game outcome remained on a knife's edge that Washington's passing game had the potential to decide until the game finally tilted and cascaded to a big Michigan win (a lesson that applies to long wars):
Math is hard. Yeah, I have not made up my losses in 2021 and 2022. Let alone see gains. And my horizon is getting close. Tip to Instapundit.
Via Instapundit, the Austin Affair. I had hopes for him. He needs to be fired. And he should merely be the first. Senior military leaders have willingly accepted the yoke on the progressive wagon. Americans have justifiably lost confidence in our senior military (and civilian defense) leadership.
Iran reinforces its Caspian Sea naval forces.
The war at sea: "Ukraine’s USV’s have also proved effective at destroying or disabling Russian warships in the Black Sea and forcing the surviving warships to move to more distant ports." But don't forget the Western ISR that identifies targets, without which the USVs are just a coastal defense weapon.
Fears grow of all-out war between America against Iran and its allies. We live in Bizarro World, so the fears are oddly not in Iran, which should fear taking on America and our allies.
The obviously inept pro-EU elites earned this: "The confidence of European elites was shaken in 2023 as national populist parties surged in popularity across the continent. Their dismay may soon deepen into despair, as 2024 is shaping up to be the year European populism goes mainstream." Tip to Instapundit.
Aiming high: "The Air Force is undergoing a top-to-bottom reorganization to transition from counterterrorism operations to competition with more powerful rivals, and its training and simulation systems will be a part of the overhaul." But close air support doesn't seem like a priority.
Killing a Hamas leader who is operating inside Lebanon is not an Israeli escalation. It is self defense. Otherwise, June 6, 1944 was Allied escalation. In fact, October 7, 2023 was the escalation. A new front against an existing enemy is not escalation. Ditto regarding Hezbollah leaders currently firing at Israel.
Pretty amazing considering how hard our government is undermining our economy: "The World Bank now estimates the world's second-largest economy, as represented in Beijing's official reports, was two-thirds the size of Washington's last year, down from 70 percent the previous year and 76 percent in 2021."
China is using its military to pressure Taiwan without shooting. While called "grey zone" tactics, only the terminology is new. I have a book from college called Force Without War covering that. I believe an updated version came out recently.
When you read about air defense identification zones don't confuse them with territorial air space. It's an area that a country has interest in identifying potential air threats:
China exploits our higher education institutions for research. A commission proposes a number of counter-measures.
I've read that the flow of Chinese men to America is a potential security threat. While we need to control our border to regulate immigration, is the flow actually something China should be worried about as young men flee? Are we missing an important signal of a significant problem in China?
Readiness: "The U.S. Navy’s surface fleet, still short of its readiness goal of 75
combat-credible surface ships at any given time, is pursuing new ways to
boost its readiness." You wonder why I worry about forward-deployed ships? We don't have that many available at any given moment.
So that's going on: "Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa
has declared an 'internal armed conflict' in the country, ordering
security forces to 'neutralize' several criminal groups accused of
spreading extreme violence in the Latin American nation." Video here.
Has Secretary Austin's covert medical disappearance delayed needed offensive action? "The U.S. Navy and the U.K.’s Royal Navy foiled a major Houthi attack Tuesday night in the Red Sea, shooting down 18 one-way drones and three missiles targeting commercial ships."
Related to the air defense story above, does America have a rule on recognizing pilots for shooting down drones and missiles? Being an ace (shooting down 5 enemy planes) doesn't seem right. Until the pilots face fighter drones, of course.
China's version of the X-37B space plane is at work in orbit.
Don't believe Russia's claims for the size of their military: "Because Russia is not officially at war, or being invaded, current laws limit how many soldiers they can conscript, and those conscripts only serve for one year. Few agree to stay longer because of the heavy losses in Ukraine."
I'm sure that will work out just swell for the Russian soldiers: "They are often led by officers who were transferred from the navy or air force and have received no training on how to lead soldiers in combat."
Biden's Valley Faux speech: I may have failed to earn re-election, but--HITLER! A malevolent mediocrity in action.
The Army wants to integrate space operations into its ground operations.
If I ever get in trouble I want Ray Epps' attorney. Epps "received no jail time, and there were no restrictions placed on his travel during his probation, but he will have to serve 100 hours of community service." Finally, someone is appropriately punished for just being at the January 6th riot.
If NATO loses the Ukraine buffer, we will have to spend a lot more on defense to stop Russia. The Belarus Anschluss is bad enough. Am I too hopeful about that?
That's a take: "Justin Trudeau could lose Canada’s next election because he’s just not as angry as the country he leads." His country is justifiably angry with him. It isn't a "communications problem" as his sycophants believe. Politico should get a room. Sheesh.
You think you hate and distrust the media enough. You do not. Nobody sees the correction.
Will Argentina's new president, Javier Milei, take a careful look at China’s potentially dual-use space activities station in Argentina? Its scope is poorly defined, with little oversight. Tip to Instapundit.
Welp, it's just a matter of time before Democrats make that illegal, too. LOL. Or is the origin more wistful in nature? Tip to Instapundit.
Back in the day I would have written a concurrent resolution for our state legislators to urge the Pentagon to put new planes at Selfridge. Now the governor sends a letter? Sad. And more sad is that members of Congress signed the letter rather than working from within Congress to affect that issue.
Don't let China exploit this: "The government of Papua New Guinea on Wednesday ordered the military to restore order in the capital, Port Moresby, after a dispute over the wages of police officers and other public servants led to angry protests and unrest."
EMS: "The U.S. Navy has ordered three Bethesda Class Expeditionary Medical Ships at a cost of about $300 million each. These 3,100 ton ships are smaller than existing hospital ships, able to operate in shallow waters and can provide rapid assistance to coastal emergencies or natural disasters."
Russia is sending the new 2S35 self-propelled artillery with a longer range to the war in Ukraine.
Navy sailor shortage. We want a bigger fleet. I guess we better not need crew. And if we can't get more big crewed ships we'd best upgrade what we have.
Threat: "U.S. officials assess that there’s a rising risk Lebanese Hezbollah militants will strike Americans in the Middle East — and even potentially hit inside the United States[.]" I'm worried. And Hezbollah has a web in South America. Nah! I'm just paranoid. Our border is totally secure. Biden says so.
Inflation ticked up in December but was still lower than the horrible rates of earlier in the year and the prior two years. But don't let anybody imply that lower rates going forward--even negligible inflation--erases the past surge in prices.
Progressives will justify Maduro's war for oil: "Guyana’s government said it is seeking help from the U.S. to improve its defense capabilities amid fears that neighboring Venezuela might one day seize a disputed region in western Guyana that is rich in minerals and oil."
Well yes. I believe it is well established that lifting suppressing artillery fire too soon on an enemy you are attacking--allowing them to come out of cover and shoot--is way more risky for your troops than risking friendly fire for a bit in order to close with the enemy.
I hear that the judge in the Trump fraud case is getting bomb threats. Does anybody honestly assume most of these threats come from Trump supporters?
As the Navy works to restore naval mine capabilities, old-style contact mines could complicate enemy mine clearing operations.
Tell them they are racist insurrectionists long enough and they'll eventually resent it: "The Army's recruiting
of white soldiers has dropped significantly in the last half decade, ... a decline that
accounts for much of the service's historic recruitment slump[.]" I see green soldiers:
I don't know what statistics had to be used for this lie, but it is obviously a lie: "A smaller Army is taking on a larger mission and training workload than during the peak of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan[.]"
China is losing Taiwan's KMT-descended citizens who no longer desire union with the mainland--regardless of who controls it. So what? If China conquers Taiwan they'll use 5 million troublesome Taiwanese as involuntary colonists to ethnically cleanse Tibet and Xinjiang of troublesome locals.
I've long thought the Russian Empire is vulnerable to another breakup. But is war making it imminent? "So, don’t be taken in by [Putin's] forced bravado. The tune he’s singing is his swan song. As to when Putin Russia will meet its end, it may be sooner than you think. Indeed, consider holding your breath."
Casus belli: "Oil prices have risen after Iran seized a tanker off the coast of Oman[.]" Iran periodically reminds us of their capabilities. But Iran did this while encouraging Houthi maritime strikes amidst Israel's war against Hamas rapists and murderers. Still, Democrats looove Iran. So Iran may escape repercussions.
I've long worried about the long-term threat of corruption for Ukrainian security. But these days I worry more about the effects of corruption in America.
They are not a ragtag resistance: "Iranian-backed Houthi militants have become the first in the world to fire anti-ship ballistic missiles in anger, a threat that has been a hot topic of discussion for years." Perhaps a review of breaking that kind of weapon's kill chain is in order.
Good question in Taiwan: "How long can it count on America in the event of an attack?" Well, we ran from South Vietnam. We ran from Afghanistan. We ran from Iraq (but returned after disaster struck). And we are thinking of running from Ukraine. China wouldn't point that out to the Taiwanese, right?
So, tip to BattleSwarm Blog via Instapundit, because of corruption, China's nuclear missiles supposedly have water instead of fuel in them and have silo caps that don't allow the missiles to be launched. Huh. What are the odds that Russian nukes are in better shape?
San Francisco calls for a Gaza ceasefire. Does that include the pro-Hamas and anti-Semitic disruptive activists in the city? Tips to Instapundit.
Russia accuses Latvia of oppressing "Russian speakers": "Russian officials have been increasingly asserting Russia’s right to protect 'compatriots abroad,' intentionally loosely defined as ethnic Russians and Russian speakers and not limited to Russian citizens." Russia has no limits on defining "compatriots."
Freedom of navigation: "Defense leaders from Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania formalized a pact Jan. 11 aimed at protecting Black Sea shipping from mines laid in the course of Russia’s attack against Ukraine."
Interesting: "Japan is the only foreign nation licensed to build Patriot air defense missiles for their own use."
I tried to get DALL-E to create this: "a color painting created in the style of hunter biden". It refused, saying "It looks like this request may not follow our content policy." But you can request the style of actual artists. I thought it would be a public service for getting affordable Hunter art.
The long goodbye to Russian-made MiG fighters.
Lawfare for another genocide. Tip to Instapundit.
Flat terrain in eastern and southern Ukraine plus lots of recon drones telegraph large armor-led assaults. Note that Ukrainian F-16s will have zero practical effect on the small drones flying in the "brown skies."
I think the important issue is a failure to react to higher threat levels: "Defense spending has fallen off a cliff under President Joe Biden, shrinking as a percentage of gross domestic product to pre-World War II budgets[.]" To be fair, our economy is way bigger. Our military is far superior to its 1941 version.
A responsible regional power: "Iran ordered the Yemen Shia rebels to make a maximum effort to disrupt shipping headed for the Suez Canal. ... Egypt and Iran are enemies and reducing Suez Canal income is a win for Iran, which supported the Yemen rebels for more than a decade to make that success possible."
They learned it from Kim Jong-Un: "South Korea has become the seventh nation to use Sea Launched Ballistic Missiles or SLBMs. The second version of the KSS-III submarines feature a number of firsts."
Canadian professional extras for the Hamas genocide. I'm sure they learned it from American progressives. Tip to Instapundit.
Fantasy: "If we want a prosperous Ukraine with a viable path toward liberal governance and European Union membership, we will have to concede that it cannot be a NATO or U.S. ally, and that this neutral Ukraine must have verifiable limits on the types and quantities of weapons it may hold." Putin will reload.
As progressives claim Biden is violating the Constitution by bombing the Houthi, let me repeat this post about how complicated that question is: "No, a president using military force isn't illegal notwithstanding the Constitution granting Congress the power to declare war."
A crusade against a mythical Substack Nazi infestation. Tip to Instapundit.
I wish Republicans could move on from Trump. He was absolutely unfairly demonized by the media. But it worked. He is demonized in the minds of too many voters. If he is nominated I will vote for him. But I think he will lose. Like Moses, he can show the way but can't enter the promised land.
Saying the Houthi won't back down after U.S-British strikes sounds like advice to just accept continued Houthi (Iranian) attacks on shipping. If the author is correct about that fanaticism, that is scary; the answer is to destroy their anti-ship capabilities and kill their leaders until they are incapable of mayhem.
Horns of a dilemma: "Hamas’ popularity has exploded in the Arab street, [yet] the Gulf states would be happy to see Hamas militarily defeated ... despite strong rhetorical support for the Palestinian cause, no Gulf state seems ready to put at risks their national interests to pressure the warring sides into a ceasefire."
Obama's Smart Diplomacy® lives on: "Hamas opened its political office in the Qatari capital Doha in 2012 at the request of Washington for the purpose of establishing a direct channel of communication with the group." Don't be shocked. Democrats looove mullah-run Iran and all its proxies. Obama was clear.
The Eloi need Morlocks. Tip to Instapundit.
The will to vote for freedom: "Taiwanese voters swept the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) presidential candidate Lai Ching-te into power on Saturday in an explicit rejection of China's warnings not to vote for him in an election Beijing framed as a choice between war and peace." But will they fight?
Thanks for journalisming that "Dick" Strocher is a fake name! What would we do without professional journalists educated by elite journalism schools? Tip to Instapundit.
Reversing America's World War II shipbuilding advantage. Could our allies build our ships for us in a war?
The mullahs who run the rump Persian empire are worried: "The religious dictatorship is not only hated, but also seen as corrupt, incompetent, untrustworthy and willing to kill any Iranians that oppose them too effectively." Yet they hang on to power and spread mayhem abroad.
The rise of lawfare over elections (via Instapundit): "We’re entering an unprecedented election season in which the fates of several candidates, including some independents to be profiled here, will be decided by legal battles instead of voters." You know Democrats looove mullah-run Iran by how they emulate it.
Damn: "Two Navy sailors are missing at sea off the coast of Somalia, U.S. Central Command said via a statement Friday." The sailors are SEALs. One fell in while boarding a vessel and the second went in for rescue, per SOP, during naval interdiction operations.
The Air Force wants to base new KV-46A aerial refueling tankers in Michigan. At this point I'm assuming that governor's letter I noted earlier was written knowing this decision was already made.
Useful: "Ukraine's ground forces commander said on Friday that Kyiv needed more military aircraft for its war effort, such as U.S. A-10 attack jets to support infantry and planes that could fire long-range cruise missiles." But if A-10s use their gun instead of precision weapons, enemy SAMs need to be suppressed.
Why is Russia effing around when they are too far away to intervene? "Moldova's pro-Russian separatist Transdniestria region accused central authorities in the ex-Soviet state on Friday of training Ukrainian soldiers to launch attacks on the rebel area's institutions and leaders." I guess for scaring the West.
Burundi closed its border with Rwanda and is expelling Rwandans, accusing Rwanda of supporting rebels. You may recall that 30 years ago in Rwanda how resistance went to tribal-based mass rape and genocide in a heartbeat. Burundi was part of the tribal conflict and killings on its side of the border in that era.
Another reason America is beefing up missile defenses on Guam: "North Korea fired a suspected intermediate-range ballistic missile toward the sea on Sunday[.]" China is the other reason.
Will Chinese forces move in? "The Maldivian president told India Sunday to withdraw its nearly 100 troops by March 15, a day after returning from China where he signed a raft of deals." The president claims it just wants freedom of action. But we'll see if even more debt to China traps the Maldives.
Sure, Reagan was demonized by elites in both parties just as Trump is now. But that doesn't mean a 1980 2.0 sweep is in Trump's future. The media was not yet a 24/7 propaganda machine then, so the demonization didn't spread through the public as it has now. Tip to Instapundit.
Progressives want Biden to rein in surging American natural gas exports. Because Russian gas is planet-friendly? Or because it weakens America? Or just because it weakens Red states? As always, the healing power of "and" is likely. Tip to Instapundit.
Don't be silly, trying to break through a security fence and storm the White House while yelling "F**k Joe Biden" is nothing like an insurrection! The black on yellow signs you may see in video are classic ANSWER (communists) fashion. Move along. Nothing to see.
I managed to hold the line at no more than three lines of text in the drafting screen per data dump entry. I'm hoping that kind of discipline builds character.
