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Tuesday, January 09, 2024

Did Russia Frame China in the Baltic Sea?

Did China work with Russia to attack NATO in the Baltic Sea? Or is weakened Russia trying to drag China into its war against Ukraine?

Frenemies in need

A vessel known as Newnew Polar Bear appeared to be quite busy on the night of October 7. The Chinese cargo vessel is suspected of damaging at least two underwater telecommunications cables and a natural gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea before scurrying to the safety of Russian waters. The audaciousness of the sabotage, coupled with the ship’s murky ownership, suggests the depths to which China and Russia are now engaged in coordinated efforts to undermine the West.

It seems odd that China would cooperate with its vassal--leaving clear fingerprints at the scene of the crime--in an effort that only helps Russia and causes the West to grow increasingly suspicious and hostile toward an economically shaky China.

I wonder if an increasingly desperate Russia engineered the illusion of collusion to drag China into its war on NATO-backed Ukraine. 

And I wonder if the Baltic Sea incident kicked off some discussions in the CCP that rolled out of the bureaucracy's maw several weeks later:

There had been a spike in what the US deemed dangerous incidents in October and the Pentagon publicly condemned China’s behavior. But in a sign military tensions could be easing, the officials told CNN that there have not been major incidents since. 

Nothing says "don't blame us" like a little restraint, eh?

Or maybe my long skepticism about the sincerity and depth of China's alignment with Russia is making me interpret the news in line with my bias.

UPDATE: Interesting:

Finland's President Sauli Niinisto said on Wednesday he had held constructive talks with China's President Xi Jinping over the damage inflicted last year to the Balticconnector gas pipeline linking Finland and Estonia. ...

"The presidents noted the constructive dialogue between the countries regarding the case of the Balticconnector pipeline," the Finnish president's office said in a statement on Wednesday, following talks with Xi.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.