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Wednesday, December 06, 2023

Does Europe Matter?

Is Europe so far gone that it cannot retain its culture and stand up for the West? A West that was birthed in Europe and exported to the Western Hemisphere and Asia?

Can Europe "become Western again"? 

Yet since World War II, Europe has played an increasingly reduced role in world affairs, despite its membership in the NATO alliance and the growth of the European Union.

Yes, World War II weakened Europe. On top of the damage World War I inflicted. But with America retreating from the world after a brief fling in Europe in 1917-1918, that weakness was masked.

The decline since then is at least caused by victory in the Cold War. The global importance of defending West Germany in that era hid the post-1945 decline

I'm optimistic that Europe can regain its confidence. It may be that Russia's attempt to push west and restore its empire--notwithstanding its even higher losses in World War II (and then post-Cold War losses)--has shaken Europeans from the EU belief it had invented a rules-based zone of peace immune to war. Wars both hot and cold that sapped European confidence.

Trying to create that rules-based peace in reaction to a long history of intra-European war has made Europe reliant on America for security and made the continent vulnerable to foreign threats. This Russian threat to Europe before the Cold War could even get going should be a warning. But I worry if the EU is the means to do that.

We need every swinging Westerner in these trying days. Even if Russia's failure to quickly conquer Ukraine proves Russia is too weak to threaten Europe--and it doesn't pose a threat of conquest except at the eastern frontiers--that is no reason to think America should pull out of Europe. As I wrote about Russian military power:

I have to now assume that Ukraine's survival of Russia's invasion was a close-run thing considering that Ukraine had no reserves for a major counteroffensive since September 2022. I'm guessing my pre-war estimation of what Russia could do with an actual invasion--not the parade Russia initially tried--was probably not far off at all. I kept assuming Ukraine held a strategic reserve as Russia sledgehammered forward slowly. Apparently not. And the delay to build that reserve force gave Russia time to call up new troops and to build defensive belts in their conquests.

Europe is a prize and not only a source of American allies. It is easy to forget that America does not defend Europe as a favor. So keep America in NATO to keep Europe in the West. NATO is America's wall to prevent our Atlantic coast from being our first line of defense.

I do have worries that Europe won't snap out of its lack of self-respect before it has to be extremely brutal to make up for the effects of its long self-loathing

The disaster of the two world wars and the re-evaluation of colonial history have sapped Europe’s belief in its right to exist—or at any rate the belief of a large part of its political class and intelligentsia.

We don't want Europe under the control of a hostile power. Let's buy the time Europe needs to fully rejoin the West. I think enough European states can.

NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.