The American tit follows Iranian tat: "U.S. military forces conducted precision strikes today on facilities in eastern Syria used by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iran-affiliated groups in response to continued attacks against U.S. personnel in Iraq and Syria. The strikes were conducted against a training facility and a safe house near the cities of Abu Kamal and Mayadin, respectively."
Good training is dangerous: "The Department of Defense announced today the deaths of five U.S. Army
Special Operations aviation Soldiers killed during routine flight
training as a result of a helicopter crash, Nov. 10, 2023 in the
Mediterranean Sea. There are no indications the crash was caused by
enemy / hostile actions." Going to war without training is more dangerous.
Second-class troops. I thought a generation of using our reserves as an operational reserve during the War on Terror fixed that problem.
Russia's plans to build their army up for large-scale conventional warfare is being undermined by feeding all available forces into the war against Ukraine. Note that America reorganized its Army to be more effective for counterinsurgency (more brigades deployable without division support) while we fought the war in Iraq. We're reverting back to focusing on large-scale combat operations.
Of course, his bureaucracy considers veterans latent deplorable insurrectionists: "President Joe Biden said America’s veterans are 'the steel spine of this nation' as he marked Veterans Day during a visit to Arlington National Cemetery." But hey, words were spoken.
Ukraine's navy-less campaign against Russia's navy is anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) in action. But Ukraine lacks a navy to exploit the attrition and push-back.
Good: "Germany's aid for Ukraine will be 'massively expanded' next year, the
foreign minister said Monday as Kyiv heads into its second winter since
Russia launched its full-scale invasion." I wonder if some American military aid will be changed next year from aid to purchases through European money.
Because Russia is a land power and Russia is in a grueling land war, the navy priority drops more: "By the end of this year the seventh of ten Russian Borei-class SSBN (ballistic missile carrying) nuclear submarines enters service. Three more are in various stages of completion and expected to enter service between 2024 and 2028. These may be the last SSBNs Russia can afford for a long time. While Russia allocated more of its defense budgets to SSBNs than any other type of ship, the post-Cold War Navy budget keeps shrinking. The Cold War ended in 1991 but Russia’s financial problems continued to get worse." I mentioned the Bulava missile for the sub last week. This post says they have a fail rate of 50%.
Ukraine adapts and merges their Soviet and Western weapons.
To repeat:
Good: "The United States and South Korea on Monday updated a bilateral security agreement with the aim of more effectively countering North Korea’s evolving nuclear and missile threats." Well, making bad less bad.
Why does it seem so common for people to claim fighting back when jihadis kill us is "falling into their trap"? Fighting a war rather than just maintaining an acceptable level of ongoing mutual casualties requires killing the enemy and breaking their things until they surrender their hopes of achieving their objective. Remember, we didn't try to win the hearts and minds of German Nazis or Japanese militarists. Unless you consider their current prosperity the result of falling into their trap.
Undermining China's subliminal war in Asia before it gets to the level of gray hulls.
I-10 in LA will be closed with reopening uncertain. Hmmm: "Shortly before 12:30 a.m. Saturday, the Los Angeles Fire Department received reports of a fire at a 200-by-200-foot storage yard 'with pallets, trailers and vehicles well involved in fire with buildings that were exposed,' Fire Chief Kristin Crowley said at a news conference Sunday." We have enemies, open borders, and law enforcement agencies either fearful of enforcing the law or too busy looking for phantom insurrectionists. It will at least give enemies ideas for targets.
America seems to be going through the motions of fighting the war on Islamist terror. So we have witnessed a decline in examples of Americans being honored to be the victims of the jihadis. But the embrace of Hamas monsters by American progressives and their Islamic allies after October 7th reminds us that goodlife still exists.
It doesn't seem like Israel is enduring heavy casualties in its slow campaign into Gaza City. I wonder if it is because Hamas and their jihadi allies aren't so much trying to defend the city as they are trying to survive within (including under) the city until Israel feels pressure to withdraw.
God is real and loves America. Actually, I assume she was making a joke. But her reputation for humorless scolding obscures that. And yeah, I'm joking, too. Tip to Instapundit.
Hopefully our submarine edge is maintained and that Australia extends the advantage.
China's anti-access/aerial denial (A2/AD) air defenses. The anti-ship systems usually get the attention.
Yeah, what Hamas is doing is one more war crime: "A US official with knowledge of American intelligence says Hamas has a command node under the Al-Shifa hospital, uses fuel intended for it and its fighters regularly cluster in and around Gaza’s largest hospital." That doesn't mean the hospital is a free-fire zone for Israel. but it does mean Israel can direct force proportional to achieving the military mission at it.
Huh: "The Israeli military is using remote-controlled quadcopters equipped with rifles to patrol the perimeter of Gaza’s hospitals, say doctors." A step toward fighter drones?
AUKUS timeline for US-designed boats: "The U.S. Navy intends to sell Australia used Virginia-class attack submarines in 2032 and 2035, plus a new boat in 2038, leaders said."
The Navy arrives: "Navy aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) and its escorts are operating in the Gulf of Oman after leaving the Red Sea earlier this weekend, USNI News learned."
Yeah, I believe I've long noted that daily usage is underestimated: "The
Ukraine War was yet another reminder that stockpiles of weapons
built up in peacetime tend to contain fewer artillery shells than are
required when there is a war. To make matters worse, the production
capacity for additional munitions is usually neglected too." To be fair,
America planned to supplement artillery with air strikes. So maybe our
estimates weren't grossly too low.
Well, assuming Israel doesn't agree to a ceasefire that saves Hamas (or "pauses" that grow into a fully formed ceasefire): "
Iran has been having a bad year. The most recent
disaster was the Hamas attack on Israel, which means the end of one of
Iran’s major paramilitary assets. The Israeli military is one of the
best in the world and did not expect Hamas to self-destruct like this,
killing as many Israelis as it could before Hamas was gone and their
base in Gaza severely damaged. "
And now for something completely different:
I've noted Western efforts to improve Ukraine's air defenses before the winter when Russia is preparing to bombard Ukraine's electricity grid again. I've also noted that Ukraine needs air defenses to protect crossing sites on the Dnieper River if it wants to conduct an offensive on the Kherson front. Finally, I've noted that if you want to fool an enemy you need to bolster the enemy's wrong belief rather than try to hide what you are doing. Just saying.
So about Gaza hospitals: "IDF Chief Spokesman R.-Adm. Daniel Hagari revealed late Monday night an underground Hamas command center under the Rantisi Hospital that not only contained suicide vests, rocket-propelled grenades and a variety of weapons but also indications, such as baby bottles, that Hamas had held Israeli hostages there." Tip to instapundit.
To be generous, perhaps the Biden administration has no intention of issuing the waiver but is dangling it in order to mute Iran's attacks: "The Biden administration may approve a sanctions waiver on Tuesday that
will allow Iran to access at least $10 billion in previously frozen
funds held in Iraq, a closely watched decision that comes just a month
after the Tehran-backed terror group Hamas launched an attack on Israel
that left 1,200 dead." But Biden might not be able to help himself. Tip to Instapundit. [LATER: The money is on the way. My generosity is destroyed. Adding insult to injury the administration remains ignorant of the concept of the fungibility of money.]
What happens if our military runs out of the minerals it needs to build it? We'd be as effed as I assumed. Pay attention to the raw materials of the Arsenal of Democracy.
China's PLA has two masters: its technical military leaders and the Chinese Communist Party. As I worry about woke political infection of America's military, by design the PLA is built to be infected by communism to sustain CCP control of China above all other objectives under Xi's control. If it comes to war, I like to think that China will be far more handicapped than America.
How George Floyd actually died. BLM lied. People died. Tip to Instapundit.
Nukes? "One of the U.S. Air Force’s nuclear missile programs is “struggling” and could see costs rise, the service’s secretary said Monday." Let's have a sense of urgency about our nuclear deterrent, okay?
China can't invade Taiwan by 2027? Even if true, how comforting is that given 2027 is only four years away?
Moscow can't assume the Caucasus is secure while it invades Ukraine. Is this some blowback from the collapse of the Pax Moskva in Armenia?
Russia likes throwing Third World migrants at Europe: "Finland said Tuesday it is considering closing its border crossings with Russia, accusing Moscow of deliberately turning a blind eye to illegal migrants."
The Moron-American community comes so close to understanding life. Tip to Instapundit.
Abiy has more territorial ambitions: "Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed claimed on October 13, 2023, that his landlocked country has a right to demand maritime access to a Red Sea port from its neighbors in the Horn of Africa — first through diplomatic means, he said, or by force if necessary." Why not use diplomacy for access. And build Ethiopian Queens to patrol the Horn of Africa region. Wouldn't that be more sustainable than capturing land from other countries and fighting to hold it against people who don't want Ethiopia to control them?
In my opinion, utterly defeating Russia in Ukraine would go a long way to reversing whatever gains Russia has made during the Winter War of 2022 with Third World middle powers based on Russian propaganda. Much like information operations against jihadis, I consider LeadOps to be the dominant action for successful information-based WebOps.
I don't know, I think federal policy is already getting exactly what it was designed to achieve: "The U.S. needs more natural gas pipeline capacity to maintain reliable gas supply during extreme cold weather, a trade group representing pipeline companies said on Monday in support of regulators who last week urged sought new rules to prevent a repetition of last winter's power outages." Tip to Instapundit.
Hey, why doesn't the federal government fire those 400 insurrectionists working to undermine American foreign policy. At least fire those who aren't in the State Department who have no business opining on foreign policy as government employees.
Has the Army rejected wokism? Hmmm. What do the senior leaders think?
The multi-war in Syria lingers on with a shattered economy keeping the government from doing much about it: "Given the current military situation, the government only controls most of the country in theory."
Israel's Arrow ABM system is in demand abroad now.
The Navy plans to arm the F-35C with four additional types of air-to-ground missiles.
Dive bombers were the first precision strike system. That's an excellent point. I've long thought of kamikaze planes as the first precision weapon, using human pilots because computerized sensors and controls were not yet available. Dive bombers were the same thing except that the pilots were supposed to survive and fight again by releasing the projectile at the target. You could say something similar about the torpedo plane that actually had to get suicidally close to the target before releasing their self-propelled projectiles.
Is China preparing for war? Well, yeah. The important question is whether China plans to use their new military to start a war. But is China's military over-rated? No doubt. But even a PLA capable of winning within 500 miles of their border will have global effects. Although I concur in an advantage India has to limit Chinese aggression on their border.
I wonder if China will insist: "The Maldives's incoming president Mohamed Muizzu has vowed to expel Indian troops after taking office later this week, but told AFP he does not want to redraw regional balance by bringing in Chinese forces instead."
Nobody can be that ignorant. I hate our teacher unions but I can't blame our teachers for this fail.
Good: "Supporters of Israel rallied by the tens of thousands on the National Mall under heavy security Tuesday, voicing solidarity in the fight against Hamas and crying 'never again.'" About 300,000 attended, I heard later. We've heard too much from the Progressive-Islamic alliance shrieking about October 7th that "it's a start!"
China won't comply because it would hurt them; and China know we will because it hurts us: "The United States and China have agreed to resume a working group on climate cooperation and pledged a major ramp-up of renewable energy[.]" Tip to Instapundit.
Lileks checks the Venn Diagram for hate and morons. Tip to Instapundit.
You think you hate and distrust communists enough. You don't. Via Instapundit.
For years, liberals ignored conservatives who said San Francisco needed to clean out its dangerous homeless camps. One foreign communist comes to town and the progressives leap into action.
Another "known wolf" kills. Once the FBI tracks down all the January 6th unarmed insurrectionists who crossed the velvet rope line, they'll get back to hunting our enemies and actual criminals. Via Instapundit.
Unless "the climate" has been plotting against us, WTAF? "While the Hamas terror group was working with Iran to launch its Oct. 7 attack on Israel, the Biden administration’s intelligence community was ramping up efforts to combat climate change, raising questions about America’s failure to detect the terror attack." Again, tip to Instapundit. I think we have a theme today: We're from the government and we're here to make things worse.
Washington, D.C. police cleared out pro-Hamas protesters outside the DNC headquarters: "Right now our officers are working to keep back approximately 150 people who are illegally and violently protesting in the area of Canal Street and Ivy Street, SE. " So it's "illegally and violently protesting"? Huh. They didn't get the "fiery, mostly peaceful" treatment? Well, attacking a Democratic Party building changes the rules, eh?
But don't you dare call Kaga an aircraft carrier: "One of Japan’s largest naval vessels took part in sea trials this week,
brandishing modifications that bring it closer to embarking
fifth-generation, U.S.-made fighter jets, local media reported."
That's new: "Soon brand new Army recruits will learn how to identify and counter small drone threats in basic training." Each squad will have an anti-drone weapon. I'm not against that. But I'd like the primary defense for infantry units to be drone fighter interceptors. That's the only way to handle drone swarms. Well, the only way short of area defensive bubbles of some sort.
Okinawa Marines: "The 12th Marine Regiment became the 12th Marine Littoral Regiment during
a sunlit morning ceremony on Camp Hansen’s football field." Good luck.
Goodbye E-3: "NATO’s next airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) platform will be the Boeing E-7A Wedgetail, the alliance has announced." I wonder if Ukraine will get the old E-3?
The clue bat really does seem to have finally worked: "The return of full-scale armed conflict to Europe has Germany dramatically reframing its security policy." Putin awoke a sleeping giant. How will the paranoid Russian society come to view Putin now?
Mapping the Hamas tunnels. I assume they aren't as grand as they are portrayed based on the reports about Osama bin Laden's sophisticated tunnel network that never existed. Enemies have reason to exaggerate, no?
Britain decides it can rely on imported steel rather than make its own. That can't possibly end well. Tip to Instapundit.
When Osama bin Laden struck America on September 11, 2001 and killed 3,000 people as a down payment for the death toll they dreamed of inflicting, a lot of the world at leas said "we are all Americans, now." Now, not even all Americans can work up that kind of solidarity. Again, we are seeing the intersection of the Venn diagram of hate and morons.
Via Instapundit. Media TDS is still strong--although one writer believes the media is insufficiently panicked. FFS, Trump is such a dictator that he didn't seize power when he was president for four years? And they really think their vigilance prevented the first unarmed coup in history? Which was a protest (with some breaking the law under strange circumstances) that simply hoped to delay Congressional proceedings until the election could be reviewed? Which even if successful could never have taken over because our government is not a game of Capture the Flag? Democrats aren't this gullible, are they?
Finally seeing the real evil: "The FBI has significantly intensified its investigations into individuals with ties to Hamas, the Palestinian terrorist group that attacked Israel on October 7, sparking the current war in Gaza. The move comes amid growing concerns about the possibility of terrorist attacks on American soil as the debate over the war grows ever more vitriolic." I've been worried about the home front. Maybe our military could remember the war on Islamist terror, too.
The people who invented the "dog whistle" theory of racist statements suddenly go deaf: "He filed a bias incident report to administrators on Nov. 11, after he
saw the campus SJP charter say in an online post that U.S. media is 'controlled by Zionists.' He said the school determined that the use of
the word 'Zionist' made the post acceptable." Sigh. The media has been busy pretending the use of the word "vermin" is a dog whistle for Nazism. Like I noted last week:
Was I wrong to think it would be funny to throw the pro-Hamas protesters into the bay to retrieve their car keys they tossed in there to make it harder to move their cars? I kid, I kid. At least they are doing this in a leftist city.
Manila says "no" to Peking's subliminal offensive: "The Philippines does not have to give China prior notice about resupply missions in its own territory in the South China Sea, saying the operations, including the 'upkeep' of a grounded navy ship, are legitimate, its foreign ministry said on Thursday." In fact, the Philippines demanded China get out of its subliminal conquests. America backs the Philippines. Second Thomas Shoal has long been China's target.
While I worry America isn't paying enough attention in Phase IX of the war to defeat Iran inside Iraq, luckily the Iranian mullahs hurt by the obvious effort by "Iran to gain control of Iraq, which has a large Shia Arab majority. Iran is losing influence inside Iraq. This is mainly because Iran is ruled by a Shia religious dictatorship that condones aggressive interference in neighboring countries. Iraq has long been the main recipient of this meddling. Iran seeks more economic and political influence in Iraq. This is made easier by Iraq’s internal problems, which are largely the result of rampant and persistent corruption. Historically, what is now known as Iraq was seen as the most corrupt region in the Middle East, if not the world."
And with precision weapons and persistent surveillance on the battlefield, loss of mobility might be a death sentence: "In Ukraine, landmines have once more proved to be the most common cause of armored vehicles being lost. The mines don’t destroy the tanks, they damage its track-laying mobility system, rendering the tank unable to move. As any experienced tank user will tell you, the major cause of tank losses is the loss of mobility in combat."
No! Way! "Special counsel Robert Hur is not expected to charge anyone in connection with the mishandling of classified documents at two locations connected to President Joe Biden, two sources close to the investigation told CNN."
Live by humiliation, die by humiliation? "Putin both stoked and exploited the widespread indignity instilled by the Soviet Union’s collapse. He sounded sincere because he was. Putin and his closest circle were 'overcome with feelings of humiliation and betrayal by the West,' contended a Kremlin insider. For Putin, Crimea was not about the territory: It was about the 'redemption of one’s own humiliation,' reported another well-informed Russian commentator." But the faltering war for glory against Ukraine is deepening the humiliation of being China's vassal. Might Russians react badly to a whole new series of humiliations?
I was luckily walking outside and got a number of videos before walking home in time to get my stadium flyover shot of a Navy P-8 familiarizing the crew prior to the upcoming Michigan-Ohio State game:
China is there to prevent action to stop even a forcefully worded common statement: "Defence ministers and officials from the United States, China, Russia and Southeast Asia gathered in Indonesia on Thursday for a meeting where they are expected to discuss geopolitical crises in and outside the region."
The E-8C airborne radar for ground situational awareness flies into the sunset: "It’s official: JSTARS is finished flying for the Air Force."
Vietnam is building up artificial islands in the South China Sea. America rejects any overly broad claims of territorial control just as it does for China.
Secretary of State Blinken: "The United States will be able to share equipment and material with the Philippines as they work to develop small modular reactors and other civilian nuclear energy infrastructure."
Does "ease tensions" mean China stops its subliminal offensive against the Philippines or does it mean the Philippines stops openly resisting? "Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said he will have a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping for a second time this year to discuss ways to ease tensions in the South China Sea that have escalated in recent months." Because the latter path doesn't work.
Tunnel warfare and drones. I remain skeptical that Hamas has 300 miles of tunnels in Gaza.
Aerial electronic warfare and eavesdropping: "The U.S. Air Force recently received the first of ten to fourteen EC-37B Compass Call electronic warfare aircraft. These are Gulfstream 550 business jets modified for military use."
Subs: "The U.S. Navy is pushing new technology to its undersea fleet to make it safer, smarter and deadlier, while also nearing a major step in developing its next-generation attack submarine." Also, anti-torpedo torpedoes. Oh what the heck, what about ASuROC?
Fingers crossed: "A powerful 6.8 magnitude undersea earthquake rocked the Philippines on Friday, Nov. 17, officials said. The quake occurred in the southern Mindanao region at 4:14 p.m. local time." I assume American and allied military assets will help if needed.
Does that mean China's subliminal offensive to control the South China Sea is over? "'China does not seek spheres of influence and will not fight a cold war or a hot war with anyone.' Chinese President Xi Jinping discusses the country's diplomatic policy during a speech in San Francisco." If China just doesn't like the attention it is getting lately and just wants to get back to business as usual, this is worse than meaningless.
I continue to hope Congress will pass new aid for Ukraine to defeat Russia's invasion. With future aid uncertain, that has to reduce Ukrainian military operations because they can't know how long they have to make what they have last.
We do seem to be past the "Israel is falling into a trap set by Hamas" theme. Nobody plans to get destroyed. And so far, that seems to be what Israel is doing to Hamas. But we'll see. Nothing is certain until it is over. And nothing is truly over, really. But you do what you can and have to do.
I miss the days when reporters told us what happened. Very few highly credentialed journalists have the ability to explain events. You think you hate and distrust our media enough. You don't. Tip to Instapundit.
Yeah: “There is no current basis under international law to validate the claim that Israel’s response to the Oct.er 7 attack is ‘genocide.’ Rather, if genocide has occurred here, international law indicates that it should be attributed instead to Hamas.” Tip to Instapundit.
She will have a well deck for vessels to move troops ashore: "The Navy awarded Ingalls Shipbuilding a $130 million advanced
procurement contract for the service’s next planned big deck
America-class amphibious warship, according to a Pentagon contract
announcement." You many recall the initial aviation-only ships of the class. In somewhat related news, a Japanese carrier helicopter destroyer will visit the American east coast to validate its ability to operate F-35Bs.
The Army replacement for ATACMS, the Precision Strike Missile, gets closer. The Army would like an anti-ship version, too.
A line in the sea: "The United States is not backing off its defensive support for Taiwan, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Thursday[.]"
If you can fake sincerity indigenous heritage, you've got it made.
Actual ethnic cleansing in the Middle East. Statistics for Christians in the Middle East would be similar if not as extreme.
The cyber domain lives in the physical world: "Deep below the waves runs the undersea cable spine of the global internet -- digital information pipelines carrying everything from bank transactions to live sports events to personal email. Currently between 95% and 99% of all transoceanic data traffic transits undersea cables."
Space: omelets and eggs. Tip to Instapundit.
India and Australia prepare to battle the Chinese navy in the Indian Ocean. And be able to monitor Chinese movement into the ocean.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 I have reminded readers of my incorrect assessment of Russia's willingness to endure casualties. Especially for a war on foreign soil. World War II set the foundation. Afghanistan showed how that affected popular opinion. So how is Russia enduring these casualties now? Well, Putin--after the retreat from Afghanistan that was the major data point for my endorsement of that theory--changed the popular image of World War II from necessary but unbearable death to one of pure Russian glory where the death is like so early 20th century:
Wag the Insurrection. It was a Democratic Party pageant.
You think you hate and distrust our media enough. You do not. Tip to Instapundit.
Say, let's talk about actual systemic misogyny and violence. In the name of god, of course. The sound of crickets from Western feminists is deafening. Tip to Instapundit.
