As the French, regional, and UN forces pull back, leaving only the government's favored Wagner mercenaries to protect the regime, the northern separatists step forward: "Fierce fighting has broken out in northern Mali with Tuareg rebels saying they have taken control of the town of Bamba from the army." Silly junta, Russia doesn't want stability in Mali! Russia wants migrants fleeing chaos to flood Europe.
The first break in the NATO chain of support: "The pro-Russia Smer-SSD party won the largest share of seats in Slovakia's parliament during weekend voting, vowing to cut off the country's support for Ukraine."
Yes, defeating corruption in Ukraine is very important to maintaining American support for aid. Mind you, letting the more corrupt Russia conquer Ukraine won't make that better. But yeah, Ukraine needs to reduce corruption to resist Russia in the long run.
Forty years since Urgent Fury. Important lessons were learned. I may have worries that we've gone too far under the multidomain operations (and its variants) label, but back then the service silos were appalling. The invasion was a major clusterfuck that nonetheless was victorious. It was the first application of America's refusal to go along with the Brezhnev Doctrine. Which some Americans want to revive.
When I read that Russia was forming a new army, I had some worries that it could be thrown into a renewed offensive against Ukraine's thin lines or thinly held northeastern front. Writers have been warning about that for over a year now. Here's that "army": "The newly created Russian 25th Combined Arms Army (CAA) is reportedly fully staffed with over 17,000 personnel." In the Cold War, American heavy divisions were that size. A Soviet CAA would have 4-5 smaller divisions (10,000 each). And Russia is committing parts of that CAA piecemeal to hold the line.
I understand why Russia is trying to promote instability in Africa and the Middle East to flood Europe with Third World migrants as a form of warfare. But why is Germany actively cooperating?
Science! "Scientific journals and preprint servers aren’t selective about research quality. They’re selective about the conclusions. If experts want to know why so many Americans don’t trust 'science,' they have their answer. Too many scientists no longer care about science." Don't be shocked when the self-destruction of standards leads to some form of Lysenkoism. Tip to Instapundit.
Japan: from a reason to create the UN system to defender of the system: "Japan has been striving toward making strategic use of the United Nations since 1956 when it became a member, to enhance its national interests and also to have a privileged place in international society. Last month, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited New York to deliver a speech at the UN General Assembly (UNGA), which widely focused on the current issues surrounding the security environment." America could easily grant its ally added heft in the U.N. Security Council with no changes to the existing structure.
Only fools claimed Bradley Fighting Vehicles can't be destroyed: "In June, the state-controlled Russian news agency Tass quoted a French media outlet reporting that out of just one contingent of nine Bradleys, six were wrecked, three were damaged and one was unscathed." Ah, Tass, accounting for 10 of 9 Bradleys its military encountered.
Is it possible China will collapse? And if it does, is it catastrophic for the world? "A total collapse of China in the near term, even with many Western firms reducing their exposure to China’s economy, would also collapse the global economy. It would precipitate the largest global recession—possibly even a depression—in decades." If a continent-sized country breaks up, its pieces might have enough heft to continue sustaining the global economy, in my opinion.
And now for something completely different:
Russia's increasing difficulty recruiting soldiers for the meat grinder. I have serious doubts that Russia has lost 200,000 KIA so far, however.
America's large and well-rounded air forces. Allies can focus on shooters because we have so many of the enabler airplanes (transports, aerial refuelers, special operations, command and control, surveillance, electronic warfare).
Laphonza Butler is obviously trans-Californian. You hater. If she wants to use Californian bathrooms, what's it to you? Tip to Instapundit.
Already punished? But what if Trump is found not guilty in the trial?? "The Bolshevik bloc of the Democratic Party is having its fantasy prosecution of Donald Trump play out in real life in New York City. There, in state attorney general Letitia James’s civil-fraud case against the former president, the trial will begin today even though Trump was already found guilty and sentenced to corporate death last week by a robed apparat named Arthur Engoron." Tip to Instapundit.
Marines and sailors are continuing a force rotation into the Philippines for exercises: "During the rotation, the force is expected to practice heliborne operations, amphibious raids, coastal defense, company- and platoon-level combined live-fire and naval operations."
I find it hard to believe this new casualty estimate (unless it is a typo from the number I noted just yesterday above): "The war in Ukraine has led to massive losses for Russian forces. So far, over 270,000 Russian troops have died in Ukraine and most of their modern tanks have been destroyed as well as many other armed vehicles and artillery systems. Aircraft losses have also been heavy, even though Russia sent few warplanes or helicopters into Ukraine because of the formidable Ukrainian air defense systems." But Ukraine does maintain the ability to produce and repair armored vehicles. I'd wondered about that.
When I hear complaints that somebody has taken advantage of a loophole, I hear that the person did something legal. Direct your complaints to the legislative body or executive that wrote the statutes or rules to allow that activity.
Kaaaannnn!!!!! "Turkey believes they can avoid the problems Russia and China encountered and deliver its Kaan stealth fighter by 2028. The first flight of the prototype is supposed to take place by the end of 2023." Well, they'll call it a stealth plane.
Subcontracting--secretly--the surveillance state push.
Syria: "On Sept. 23, U.S. troops captured Abu Halil al-Fad’ani; and five days later, American service members captured Mamduh Ibrahim al-haji Shaykh, CENTCOM announced in separate news releases." It's almost as if losing the war in Afghanistan didn't end the War on (Jihadi) Terror.
Good: "Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania have agreed on a plan they hope will help expedite Ukrainian grain exports, officials said Tuesday, with needy countries beyond Europe potentially benefitting from speedier procedures." Ukrainian grain will go directly to the world market instead of distorting the European market, hurting local farmers.
Pro-Russia Robert Fico's win in Slovakia will likely be another European Union crisis that the proto-imperial EU will not waste in it drive to remove that pesky prefix. Just watch the EU argue that decisions should not need unanimous consent to restrict EU actions to help Ukraine.
Undermining norms and the Constitution. Can't let that stop a historic first! But it is just moot trivia. Only a Republican would get the "Constitutional crisis" treatment by the media. As an aside, the Constitutional requirement is easier to evade in an age of air travel rather than dirt roads and sailing ships. Tip to Instapundit.
Obama accused Romney of getting calls from the 1980s for a foreign policy. Apparently, Putin was getting the calls. That Obama/Hillary! "reset" was futile and only served to get America to let its guard down.
"Polite" Canadians of the leftist variety routinely proclaim that fascism is descending on America. Well look where it actually landed: "'Canada has a really dark history with Nazis in Canada,' the immigration minister, Marc Miller, told reporters ahead of the prime minister’s apology. 'There was a point in our history where it was easier to get [into Canada] as a Nazi than it was as a Jewish person. I think that’s a history we have to reconcile.'"
Obviously, fighting in a Waffen SS combat unit against the USSR in World War II doesn't necessarily mean you are a Nazi. As is well known in any reputable news room or journalism school, supporting Republicans in modern America makes you a Nazi! Tip to Instapundit.
The Australian army will be with us when we island and littoral hop north through the South China Sea: "The Australian Army is slated to shift its focus to the littorals after announcing last week several major changes, which include the redeploying a sizable portion of soldiers and equipment across the country and optimizing several brigades for littoral and amphibious missions."
On the surface, China defeated India in the Maldives election: "The president-elect of the Maldives said he will stick to his campaign promise to remove Indian military personnel stationed in the archipelago state, promising he would initiate the process." Fingers crossed.
The anchor around our Afghanistan war effort: "In 2019 Pakistan admitted that for the last fifteen years it had lied about the presence of over 30,000 armed men in Pakistan and Kashmir working for 40 Islamic terror groups. That deception was one of the reasons the U.S. cut off all aid to Pakistan." It was a problem that became clearer over time. We probably would have made it through the Afghanistan danger zone if not for Pakistan. Now China can support Pakistan. And Pakistan can deal with the jihadis that hate them, too.
The war on Ukraine is making Russia's aircraft production problems worse.
Jamaal Bowman pulled a fire alarm to delay Congressional action. Matt Gaetz said, "Hold my beer." The Prigozhin Gaetz Revolt in the House of Representatives is embarrassing for Republicans, especially given that the Democratic-media complex will define it for the public. What was Gaetz thinking? Sure, Republicans could do more--assuming that doesn't erode its narrow margin in the next election. How does this help? Let me correct one misconception. Congress does not "govern" America. So stop saying this revolt proves Republicans can't "govern" America. Congress "legislates" for America at the federal level while the president governs under those statutes (supposedly, we'll set aside administrative rules for now). The left is confused about separation of powers. Don't go along with them. That said, I dream of restoring regular order budget bills. We're not getting that out of the revolt, are we? Or maybe there will be good long-term effects. Although it is looking like the Gaetz Group were just "useful idiots" for a Democratic information operation against Republicans.
The Navy's failed cruiser modernization effort. Wonderful.
Russia exits stage right: "France will send military equipment to Armenia amid escalating tensions with its neighbor Azerbaijan, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna said Tuesday evening."
Interesting: "The Biden administration has quietly entered into agreements with Ecuador that will allow the United States to send in military forces, both on land and off the coast of the South American country, which has been heavily affected by drug cartels operating in the region."
Ukraine is officially America's new forever war? Because we have no objective? No plan? The objective is to blunt Russia's drive to advance west and wreck NATO. The plan is to supply a willing Ukraine that wants to fight to eject Russia from Ukraine to protect its independence. Thank God nobody demanded Reagan put more detail into his plan to win the Cold War. Also, there is no blank check for Ukraine. That is reserved for "green" energy subsidies and paying for rich families' college student loans. Really, focus on the massive (70% of the budget, I believe) automatic "non-discretionary" federal spending that is beyond Congressional control once set in motion. As I have noted:
Ah, California. Idiocracy wasn't supposed to be a blueprint.
The little "big lie" the Democrat-media complex tells us. Is it clear why I haven't trusted the media for many decades now? Tip to Instapundit.
Hey, you set the rules. Don't blame us for playing the game. My laughter is muted by the foundation of stupidity the humor rests on. tip to Instapundit.
Mass is still important, especially with lack of space to trade for time to allow precision to wreak havoc before the enemy can win: "True, space can compensate for mass to an extent, but none of NATO’s flank countries has the advantage of geography to plan accordingly in the event of a Russian invasion, nor would the Indo-Pacific region offer favorable space in terms of terrain should China decide to invade Taiwan." Exactly.
After all this time? "Western militaries are running out of ammunition to give to Ukraine, NATO and British officials warned Tuesday" FFS, we're still failing the logistics test for large-scale combat operations. We've heard these stories for a long time. Sometimes I think these stories are the West's version of Russia's nuclear threats that are designed to dull the other side's escalation of means. That is, Russia may be persuaded not to escalate on the theory that the same level of effort will outlast the West's ability to sustain Ukraine. But I'm suspicious that way. On the other hand, such stories--even if Western information operations--bolster those who want to save our ammunition for Pillow Fortress America.
The Army is overhauling its recruiting strategy. I had thoughts in Army magazine some years ago.
Russia is willing to invade Ukraine with one hand tied behind its back to avoid a full-scale war with NATO. That is probably true. And if so, don't neglect the force beyond NATO that Russia has to worry about if engaged in full-scale war with NATO.
Yeah, things are definitely heating up at Scarborough Shoal as the Philippines openly resists China's subliminal South China Sea offensive.
Sweden may find that its biggest threat is internal rather than Russia: Immigrant gang violence--109 bombings through the middle of August!--is so bad that the Swedes want to use their army to combat it. The tragic part is that pending NATO membership may deter Sweden from fighting the gangs because too many in the West will demand Sweden celebrate their "diverse" gang problem. We'll see if Sweden will deport or imprison for life the fanatics turning Swedish cities into Islamist strongholds. The other migrants can hardly hope to assimilate if they simply brought their societies with them. And indigenous populism will rise until the main political parties admit and deal with the problem.
Interesting: "Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu celebrated an odd group of Russian armed formations operating in the western Zaporizhia Oblast direction during a conference call with Russian military leadership. Shoigu’s choice of units could indicate he seeks to highlight Russian commanders who continue to follow Russian military leadership’s orders for relentless counterattacks." You get what you incentivize. This is very helpful to Ukraine's attrition strategy to hollow out Russia's defense line.
Unclear on Biden's nuanced Smart Diplomacy®: "A group of 20 Senate Democrats sent a letter to Biden on Wednesday voicing concerns about the security guarantees Saudi Arabia is reportedly demanding from the U.S." I'm sure the U.S. is offering security guarantees to persuade the Saudis to refrain from getting nuclear weapons. And why would the Saudis want them? Because Biden wants Iran to have nukes. Have a super sparkly day.
I guess Crimea isn't as secure as Russia hopes: "Russia has signed a deal for a permanent naval base on the Black Sea coast of the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia[.]" Given how much Russia values Crimea as a power projection platform, it should be clear that Russia won't voluntarily end its serial wars against Ukraine until Russia at least controls both all of Ukraine's coast and a sufficient buffer north of the Black Sea.
Preparing for the big one: "Engineers with the 18th Airborne Corps based at Fort Stewart, Georgia teamed up with 3rd Infantry Division tankers there to complete a complex crossing exercise on Sept. 21. The once-routine training carries a stark urgency after a battalion of Russian armor was destroyed last year trying to do the same in Ukraine."
Preparing for the big one, Army air defense units return to Europe.
Russia's small ground forces are stretched thin across their long borders (well, they're all concentrated in southeastern Ukraine, now), so Sweden's decision isn't futile: "Sweden has taken decisive action to counter Russia’s growing presence in the Arctic region
by increasing land forces in the northern part of the Nordic country
and expanding military cooperation with Finland and Norway." Sounds good.
Learning from America: "The Kremlin is likely intensifying its use of tools of digital authoritarianism to increase domestic repression and tighten control of the information space." Eerily familiar.
Killing the goose that lays the golden eggs: "Hong Kong is a city that has for decades drawn in the best and the brightest of China and Asia. But it brought them into an open society, where the rule of law and human rights were secure. The national security law has changed all." Tip to Instapundit.
Russia is resorting to a recruiting measure that does not indicate the ability to throw (doomed) men at their battlefield problems: "Normally, men with HIV, Covid19, poor vision, diabetes, cancer and susceptibility to strokes were not taken into the military. Now they are and that means more medical expenses for the military and problems finding useful work for the partially fit in the armed forces."
Russia has overcome Western sanctions to resume cruise missile production. Move and counter-move will continue in the sanctions war.
A "cool" president? No. Approaching room temperature? Highly likely per actuarial tables.
Portland: When seconds count, the police are minutes away not coming. On the bright side, Portland residents are getting exactly what they voted for. Who says government isn't responsive to voters?
Putin believes--or claims to believe--the West is at fault for his invasion of Ukraine: "The former spies who wield power in Moscow have repeatedly warned of the risk of a Russia-NATO conflict as the West's post-Cold War dominance wanes, Russia lays to rest the humiliations of the Soviet collapse, and China rises to superpower status." Nonsense. Russia created hostility with NATO in order to hide Russia's appeasement of China. And now Putin is trapped in the wrong conflict.
Is the UN's new Haiti mission a mistake--waiting to be a disaster? All depends. Is the purpose to solve the problem or hold the lid on until after the American 2024 presidential and Congressional elections?
Huh: "The U.S. Army's M1 Abrams tanks will 'not be effective' or able to 'dominate' on the battlefields of the 2040s, especially in the context of a potential high-end conflict against China." The Army is actually thinking about land combat against China? Huh. The study: "An Independent Assessment of the 2040 Battlefield and its Implications for the 5th Generation Combat Vehicle (5GCV)"
We are probably assuming too few problems inside Russia because we can't see clearly. But this is possible: "The fighting is set to be vicious and prolonged. But the outcome
may not be decided by military power or even by events inside Russia,
but instead by the pace of geopolitical trends unconnected with the war –
and many of these are developing in Putin’s favour." I did warn that Ukraine needed a Battle of Saratoga to convince Western countries it is not futile to arm and support Ukraine beyond just hurting Russia. Unless Russia's concealed problems explode "out of nowhere."
As long as Canada sees dissenting truck drivers as their main enemy, I guess they don't care what they do to undermine their military.
Throwing elbows: "A US F-16 fighter jet has downed an unmanned Turkish drone close to a coalition facility in northeastern Syria, where 900 US special operation forces are deployed, a move that is likely to escalate tensions between the two NATO allies, the Pentagon has confirmed." We warned the Turks about our worries. Turkey will get F-16s for letting Sweden into NATO. But there are limits to how much Turkey can dick around with us. But I wonder if Russia will take this as a signal it can safely get more aggressive against Western drones over Syria and the Black Sea? We might see some mutual drone downings before (hopefully) we both step back.
If Trump is named Speaker of the House of Representatives after Democrats essentially provided the votes to vacate the office to harm Republicans, I would laugh very hard as they squirm at the thought of him third in line for the presidency. But I don't decide my views on what annoys Democrats. Sigh. Although it would provide Trump with a great reason for not running for president. And protection from politically motivated prosecutions? Hmmm.
Biden building a section of a southern border wall is pointless. As I've long said, a border can be defended with a decision to defend the border and enough personnel actually defending the border. Walls (or other obstacles) merely reduce the number of personnel you need to defend the border. Also pointless is Biden's demand for more funding for the border. That is just an excuse for the current mess Biden has created. The funding is intended to process illegal immigrants for entering America--not to defend the border. Still, I'm enjoying Democrats in "sanctuary" jurisdictions discovering that mass illegal immigration is a huge and expensive problem.
Hmmm: "Lawmakers are urging Navy Exchange officials to stop selling Lenovo computers and other products, because of their reported links to the People’s Republic of China government." I'm not really paranoid--just prescient. Say, about infected motherboards.
The Claymore mine. I did not know versions of it existed in World War II. I had to carry one around in basic training because I was the peer instructor for the platoon I was in.
Help: "Sweden will send Ukraine a new military support package worth 2.2 billion crowns ($199 million) - consisting mainly of artillery ammunition - and is looking into sending fighter jets, Defence Minister Pal Jonson said."
The demand for AUD (Anti UAV Defense) skyrockets. Will combat air patrol drones be next? And will area "bubble" defenses that disrupt drone control signals be countered by AI in drones?
The decades of warnings about our spending binge have been ignored as we seemingly fly along without consequences. This time for sure? This writer says we may "experience a full-blown economic and financial crisis before the November elections." Well, the pandemic response has supercharged the spending stupidity. And spiked a trend in telecommuting that turned a slow problem of lower demand for commercial office property into a sudden crisis over defaulting loans from banks. I won't be shocked. But I'll be shocked. The author says the Fed is being too stringent on fighting inflation and
should be easing off rate hikes to make a financial crisis less likely.
But isn't it good to get inflation firmly under control? Won't failure
on that front lead to disaster, too?And here I am three years from tapping my 401k or savings. Gulp. And worse, my children will be starting careers in the fallout from that debacle. Have a super sparkly day.
To be fair, if you can claim men are women and women are men, you can pretend anything is true in defiance of reality. Like gravity, their beliefs won't change the outcome. Who do Democrats think they are, the Road Runner?
China's subliminal war continues: "China has condemned a mission by four Philippine ships to re-supply Philippine troops on a disputed South China Sea atoll, saying the vessels had entered its waters in the Spratly Islands without its permission."
I'm going to guess this is nothing: "Months after leaving the White House, former President Donald Trump allegedly discussed potentially sensitive information about U.S. nuclear submarines with a member of his Mar-a-Lago Club -- an Australian billionaire who then allegedly shared the information with scores of others, including more than a dozen foreign officials, several of his own employees, and a handful of journalists, according to sources familiar with the matter." Ah, "potentially". The details in the article don't sound like anything not already known. I mean, we know a French and British SSBN collided with each other not long ago and didn't even know it. And an Australian was told. Trump probably knew AUKUS was possible. As did the Australian, it seems. Maybe Trump violated security rules. And maybe every other former government person will be similarly targeted for revealing information.
Once again, I find this an uplifting story of government giving voters exactly what they repeatedly said they want. Tip to Instapundit.
Does the European Union's new tiered membership signal the end of the proto-empire? I hope so. Kill it. Restore a free-trade region.
Sometimes I wonder if Democrats turned so viciously against Russia because Russia committed the crime of rejecting communism. Again, welcome to the party. But their switch is odd, no? I mean, Democrats do get oddly upset about attacks on communist China--which did in fact spread Covid to the world through malice or incompetence.
Well, this honor will ease the conscience of the Western left and allow them to get on with helping Iran get nuclear weapons: "Jailed human rights activist Narges Mohammadi, 51, has been awarded the 2023 Nobel Peace Prize in recognition of her fight against the oppression of Iran’s women and her fight to promote human rights and freedom for all."
"Deprogramming" political foes is just Science!, you deplorable deniers! Again, no matter how historians eventually judge him--when they stop frothing at the mouth, of course--Trump has my eternal gratitude for keeping Hillary! out of the White House.
Ukraine gets Western tanks and slowly gains an advantage on Russia in fielded tanks. Also, Ukraine will get 100 American Abrams tanks? When was that decided? I only recall the decision for 31. Hmmm.
A third "light carrier": "A new variant of the Navy’s classic, if even timeless 'well-deck' for
amphibious attack has now hit the ocean, as the Navy’s third
America-class amphibious assault ship launches into the ocean from its
floating dock." Let's review the initial ship class models. Restoring the well-deck makes it clear that being a light carrier is the secondary role of a ship designed as an amphibious warfare platform--although a different kind relying on air movement from over the horizon rather than slow surface movement from ship to shore.
Did America shooting down a Turkish drone over Syria deter Turkey from a ground operation inside Syria? Maybe a delay--Turkish air strikes haven't been deterred--but does anybody really believe America will go to war with Turkey over this?
In part, this briefly published disgusting State Department statement about the Hamas slaughter expedition is a problem created by the Internet when any government official can make a statement about an issue. The other is the general outlook of the pool of people recruited by this administration, of course. Tip to Instapundit.
The "sophisticated" take that none of the money America paid Iran to release American hostages was used to finance Hamas and its terror raid on Israel is silly, based on a technicality. Face it, America could be sanctioned for financially supporting the Hamas slaughter raid into Israel. Money is fungible. Money put in Qatar bank accounts--even if used for "good" things--substitutes for money that otherwise would be needed for them. And admit it, Democrats aren't very good at predicting Iran's use of our money for good things. Iran prioritizes terror despite Democratic insistence that it makes no sense to do that. That includes the latest $6 billion ransom that the Iranians insist they can use any way they want, as I quoted in updates to this post citing ISW. And toss in direct American funding of Hamas. If you wonder why a "blockaded" Hamas has so many rockets, this is why.
Good Lord, was Israel's intelligence too busy undermining Netanyahu to pay attention to actual enemies? Tip to Hot Air, via Instapundit. On the bright side, the Israeli intelligence agencies are probably very diverse with all the requisite pronouns in place. Can't let America enjoy all The Stupid, right?
TDR has peered into the future of the Hamas slaughter and kidnapping raid into Israel to see how Western apologists for Palestinians will get over the horror and--after a decent interval--tell us we shouldn't bicker and argue over who killed who, and support Hamas and the other terrorists in a very real and legally binding sense:
The Russians are already jumping on the propaganda line that helping Ukraine is distracting the West from addressing Middle East problems. It's so nice that Russia is interested in promoting the West's best interests. In reality, this is an implicit Russian threat to do more to push illegal migrants into Europe.
I always wonder how well China's artificial islands in the South China Sea can endure typhoons.
How long will it take Antifa and fellow traveler communist groups to start protesting to "keep hands off Hamas" in America? That will be a real dilemma for the Democrats and their pet FBI, no? I hate it that the FBI has forfeited the trust I once gave it. That's on its leadership, not me.
Monday is Columbus Day, when Americans across the spectrum of center-left to raving communist unite in condemning America and the West, in general. As for me: "I still observe Columbus Day. Any property owner in the Americas is free to give their property to Native American tribes to do their small part to make up for any lingering guilt those people feel. But remember that the tribes and empires in the Americas in 1492 were the winners of past wars between Native American entities. The Europeans of 1492 were the victors over past Europeans and were the people who beat the past victors in the Americas. That's how the world worked, and still does all too often. Also, isn't it interesting that only America and Canada are considered illegitimate while every conqueror of indigenous peoples south of the Rio Grande River--or in the rest of the world (other than Australia and New Zealand)--get a pass from the woke? This is a useful essay."
