The reported numbers make no sense in reported Winter War of 2022 casualty figures. Especially with a largely static front where wounded can be pulled out for care relatively easily.
The Army is starting to receive the AMPV replacement for the M-113 APC: "The AMPV costs nearly $4 million each and has protection similar to the M-2 and even greater off-road mobility." There are many variants, including a 120mm mortar and a flatbed version. Oddly, even without a turret it is heavier than a Bradley IFV. Nearly 3,000 are wanted.
And now for something completely different:
Probably shot down by a Ukrainian Patriot missile: "A Russian robotic spacecraft that was headed to the lunar surface has crashed into the moon, Russia’s space agency said on Sunday[.]" Tip to Instapundit.
More evidence that Saudi Arabia is happy to sell China oil and use their help to calm down the Gulf, but aren't flipping away from the West: "Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman wants to turn the country into the Gulf’s manufacturing powerhouse as it moves away from oil and gas."
When insanity ruled policy. On balance, I wouldn't be shocked to learn that our government killed more people than it saved during Covid. And throw in the outcomes of children denied education and socialization for at least years.
Too many Republicans would rather see a Democrat win than Trump. And too many Trump supporters consider non-Trump backers mere "RINOs". Are Republicans determined to lose the presidency?
The Navy practiced fighting naval campaigns in two theaters at once.
Zumwalt will spend two years having hypersonic missile launch tubes installed.
The U.S. is struggling to keep up with Ukraine's use of artillery ammunition. This war has been a needed alarm about the inadequacy of the supposed Arsenal of Democracy. Be grateful that the alarms sounded while Ukrainians and not Americans are fighting for their lives.
This will total 42 aircraft: "The Netherlands and Denmark announced Sunday they will give F-16 warplanes to Ukraine[.]" If we want to speed this up.
Putting China on notice: "The United States, Japan and Australia are planning a joint navy drill in the South China Sea off the western Philippines[.]"
Chinese Communist Party: Remain calm. All is well.
Discussing Russia's Black Sea amphibious warfare ships. They're getting old. As are Russia's other major warships: "Only a few classes of submarines are exempt. The Russian surface fleet is fading into retirement and eventually most Russian naval power will consist of submarines." That is a bit of hyperbole. The small ships and vessels that can provide coastal defense are still being built.
Russia puts Norway on its sh*t list. How did NATO member Norway avoid that up until now? The list has 49 countries on it, now.
For a people supposedly just Russians with a funny accent, Ukrainians sure have been fighting to throw off Russian dominance for a long time. Remember, Russia expands by conquest. NATO expands by considering your application for membership. China's neighbors are beginning to wonder if they need their own version of NATO to survive.
I complained that paying Iran ransoms to free Americans will just incentivize Iran to kidnap more Americans. I underestimated the mullah regime. They kept some hostages throughout the current deal.
Sanctions are weakening Russia. Don't oppose Western sanctions because they aren't a silver bullet solution to all our problems with Russian aggression. Sanctions are part of defeating Russia. That's good enough to keep them.
Oh good Lord, could the Hawaii fire death toll have killed lots of children? Sadly, the governor's blaming of climate change rather than officials without a Goddamn sense of urgency to do their actual jobs supports that horrific possibility. I hope to God I'm furious for nothing and that the death toll is not that heartbreaking.
Exactly: "Don’t let anyone tell you transparency means surrendering your privacy to the state. It’s supposed to be the other way around." Tip to Instapundit.
The proto-imperial EU eager to remove the prefix is anti-democratic? "The European Union has long suffered from a democratic deficit, owing to the absence of a united European polity that can hold EU political institutions accountable. In recent years, three developments have all but destroyed the idea of the EU as an effective force for good within and beyond Europe." As the expression goes, a feature and not a bug. Thank America--not EU apparatchiki--for the national-level freedom that exists.
Reports that Russia will create a new army composed of new units to free up more experienced Kherson front units for commitment further east is interesting. If Ukraine has plans to assault across the Dnieper River, the time is coming. Can Ukraine use small boats and marines (I've heard Britain trained 900 in amphibious warfare recently) to cross? Does Ukraine have the helicopters to expand a bridgehead with troops? Has Ukraine built an underwater bridge to send heavy forces across to push southeast? Can more bridges be established with air defenses?
Chinese island and sea feature bases in the South China Sea placed at risk: "Standing before the backdrop of the frigate HMAS Warramunga, Defense Industry Minister Pat Conroy told reporters that Australia’s National Security Committee had approved the $1.3 billion AUD ($833 million USD) purchase of more than 200 Tomahawk cruise missiles and the $431 million AUD ($276 million USD) purchase of advanced long-range anti-radar missiles (AARGM-ER)."
A-holes: "Russia’s fighter jets are making dangerous head-on passes of U.S. jets over Syria, a U.S. spokesperson said, even as Russian media outlets are accusing the United States of doing the same. "
Thank goodness Pakistan is China's problem now and not America's.
Did I miss the repeal of the 25th Amendment in the last couple years? Tip to Instapundit.
China's broad spy recruitment campaign. Will the West impose consequences for the decades of theft?
This is an actual federal government responsibility so it will be ignored until a catastrophe in favor of battling climate change and proper pronoun usage: "While there have been no major U.S. plane crashes in more than a decade, potentially dangerous incidents are occurring far more frequently than almost anyone realizes[.]"
How is it possible that the U.S. is only warning Americans not stay in Belarus until now?!
A long-range Tu-22M was destroyed: "Ukrainian saboteurs coordinated by Kyiv’s military intelligence services carried out a pair of recent drone attacks that hit parked bomber aircraft at air bases deep inside Russia, Ukraine media claimed Tuesday."
Oh? "With Ukraine’s counteroffensive all but halted, the time has come for Washington to push for peace—particularly given that Russia might launch a new offensive in 2024." Why would Ukraine trust us in such an endeavor when the failure of our "peace" plan in Afghanistan rapidly devolved into a decisive Taliban victory? Let's internalize the thinking that there is no substitute for victory.
Ah, the Porcupinist view on focusing on one aspect to magically defeat a Chinese invasion. Yes, anti-ship weapons are important. But Taiwanese large warships are useful to keep Taiwan's sea lines of communication open in war or in Chinese "gray" operations that seek to slowly grab small Taiwanese outposts. Amphibious warfare ships are useful to supply outlying islands during Chinese pressure campaigns and to move troops and supplies along the east coast in war. Portraying Taiwan's admirals as pining for some kind of Battle of Jutland is ridiculous. And yes, spending more on defense is vital. But Taiwan has to fight in every avenue to make sure the PLA is ejected from Taiwan before a ceasefire.
Nice work if you can get it, I suppose: "The goal for the West ought to be to persuade China’s rulers that seeking domestic legitimacy in external aggression would be folly, and that their only real choice concerns their approach to the economy."
Let's not get bogged down in the weeds of what is a "woke" policy: "Risk of a government shutdown this fall is rising after a powerful bloc of House conservatives vowed to oppose any stopgap spending measure that does not roll back Pentagon policies they consider 'woke.'" Our senior military leadership has found many substitutes for victory and I've lost confidence in them.
To be fair, Iran needs to make room for new hostages: "The United States believes an understanding on Iran eventually releasing
five U.S. citizens remains on track, White House National Security
Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Tuesday but declined to offer any
timeline." And now for something completely different:
Much like Western Marxists claim every failed communist state hasn't practiced "true communism", we now find that the Taliban aren't practicing true Islam. To be fair, there's been a lot of that going on lately. If it's that widely misinterpreted, maybe some clarifying reforms are in order?
Republicans aren't happy Biden has released huge sums of money to Iran for American hostages. And they think there is more to worry about: "The letter also accuses the administration of reaching a secret nuclear understanding with Tehran in the agreement." To be fair, there's nothing in the Constitution about submitting a hazy "understanding" by unknown parties to the Senate for approval.
Republic, meet Banana. Via Instapundit.
I suspect this is American disinformation to mislead Russia: "Ukraine’s grinding counteroffensive is struggling to break through entrenched Russian defenses in large part because it has too many troops, including some of its best combat units, in the wrong places, American and other Western officials say."
If Korb says the military isn't too woke, that convinces me it is too woke.
Troublemakers: "Formation of a national government continues to be blocked by the refusal of Russia and Turkey to withdraw their troops until they receive guarantees that their interests in Libya are respected." Russia would like Libya to remain in chaos to be a portal for destabilizing migrants to reach Europe. Turkey wants the deal that one faction granted Turkey to expand its control over Mediterranean waters.
Amazingly, Russia hasn't been able to gain control of the Black Sea.
This author wonders why we aren't trying to use the LCS rather than get rid of them early. I thought the concept had promise. But it was screwed up as recent Navy surface ship programs have been. I'd have no problem retiring them if we put them in the reserve fleet to call up as expendable light warships during a major sea control war.
Huh: "The EU needs a Russia strategy that looks beyond the war in Ukraine." Every EU "strategy" is about increasing EU control over member states.
No! Way! "Two years after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, there is growing consensus that the country is again devolving into a hotbed of terrorism activity that is already beginning to affect the region, if not yet capable of reaching the West." I was assured the Taliban 2.0 were inclusive and not at all jihad-friendly! I never believed that. But our leaders acted as if it was true. And refused to work the problem to prevent a threat from rising after we screwed the pooch.
I reject the idea that Putin killed Prigozhin because Russia is losing the war. It is too convenient to explain everything that happens as being caused by that. I think Russia is losing the war. But not by a lot. I hope Russia's defenses are a tough crust that relies on bluff. I hope that if Ukraine can break through that crust that it will expose weakness behind it. As I've noted, you have to attack to win. Defending just means you are trying not to lose. Which grants the attacker opportunities.
I'm so old I remember when it was racist just to say the virus originated in China: "The Washington Post’s editorial board published a rundown today of how China’s entire system conspired to keep information on the coronavirus under wraps in the first weeks of 2020 (and beyond). The information in this piece isn’t new but it’s nice to see it presented in the context of how China’s one-party system was intentionally geared to lying, first to their own people and then to the entire world." Tip to Instapundit.
This will make it easier for American forces to help defend Australia and to project power north: "In what analysts said was a clear sign of its growing value as a strategic center to the Indo-Pacific, Australia has announced it plans to build a $100 million AUD ($64 million USD) factory to produce, apply and maintain the stealth coatings so critical to the F-35." I've long pointed out the shield and sword role of Australia for the Western alliance.
Many islands and the South China Sea stretching north as an avenue for an enemy attack make these good to have: "Indonesia has committed to buying Boeing-made F-15 Eagle fighter jets and Sikorsky-made Black hawk helicopters." The F-15EX can function as a powerful medium-range bomber. Related diplomatic angle.
Many tens of thousands of dead Ukrainians later, who will help Ukraine regain its lost nuclear status? "Ukraine and Britain thought they had solved the problem of ex-Soviet nukes and Ukrainian territorial sovereignty when the Kremlin agreed to the Budapest Accord of 1994. Ukraine would give up its nukes and Russia would respect Ukraine's borders, including the Crimean Peninsula." In time, I suspect China might. For reasons. But France is a wild card possibility because it would diverge from American thought.
Chinese organized crime follow Chinese businesses overseas. Fascinating: "The locals [in South America and the Caribbean Sea] often can’t tell the difference between Chinese businessmen and Chinese gangsters and adopt an anti-Chinese attitude that makes trouble for all Chinese in the area. Chinese firms came up with a solution; Chinese PSCs, or Private Security Companies. Am I wrong to assume this is a broader business approach? Or is it unique to China?
Hmmm: "Once the Ukraine War has ended, the Russian military may accept that the NATO tactics were a major reason for their failure in Ukraine." We'll need to go to the Definitions Section for "Failure". Does that mean "failure to conquer Ukraine" or "ejected from Ukraine"? Or, if Western resolve falters, "failure to conquer Ukraine at low cost"?
I heard someone speculating that Prigozhin might have pretended to be on that plane Putin shot down (if Putin--or any Russian--did in fact give the order). That occurred to me. The simplest explanation is that Prigozhin is dead. If Russia can't confirm his death with remains, I assume Putin wouldn't say that. The FSB would have a quiet priority job worldwide. I guess I wouldn't be shocked if Prigozhin turns up far from Russia.
Hmmm: "Iran and Saudi Arabia were among six countries set to join Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa in the BRICS economic bloc from next year, the bloc announced Thursday[.]" I'd say this is futile given Western strength. But that assumes we have leadership that isn't committed to destroying our economic dominance. China might need decades to see results. Yet I can't help but feel this expansion is intended to conceal Chinese economic weakness.
Arming Taiwan: "The State Department said Wednesday it had signed off on the sale of infrared search tracking systems along with related equipment for advanced F-16 fighter jets."
If I wanted to use amphibious forces to get past the Dnieper River in Kherson, I'd want to destroy S-400 and anti-ship weapons in western Crimea.
Yeah, I don't trust Google results on anything but obscure archival-type information. Tip to Instapundit.
Canada is just a step away from declaring you are crazy not to love Justin Trudeau and all his works.
Concerns in the West about Ukraine's counteroffensive. Even if Russia's defenses are a hard crust that could collapse if hit hard enough, if the Ukrainians are unable to deploy enough power to break the line before bad weather sets in, Russia wins. Getting close to breaking Russia's army won't count.
Welcome to the Moon! "India became the first country to land a spacecraft near the moon’s south pole on Wednesday[.]" Just leave are cars alone. We're coming back for them.
Odd, no? "Ukrainian special forces made an amphibious raid into the occupied
Crimean peninsula on Thursday, where they battled Russian troops and
planted the country's flag[.]" Were the attacks on Russia's air defense and anti-ship weapons in western Crimea--noted in an earlier entry--for the purpose of enabling this kinetic information operation? Or a plausible purpose to hide the real purpose?
No matter what I may think of Trump these days, Democrats always manage to act much worse and pose more of a threat to rule-of-law democracy: "Trump’s machinations — though impeachable and disqualifying — posed no real threat to the constitutionally mandated ratification of Biden’s Electoral College majority and the consequent transition of power." Trump's fate is a political and not a criminal question. Tip to Instapundit.
China's faltering economy may nullify worries that a power transition with America may produce a Thucydides Trap war between the two [wrong link corrected]. I noted early on that I had doubts about China passing America by. And I have had doubts about the Thucydides Trap in relation to America and China.
And now for something completely different:
The Chinese party/state control of its economy led Americans to embrace big government control even as China's control is failing to create economic growth. Will American fanboys (and girls) of state direction reverse course and let our free market system work? China's advances were based on technology theft and moving peasants from fields to factories. Once the economy got more complicated than those solutions could handle, things got sluggish. Sadly, both political parties here want the government to direct the economy.
Norway will donate F-16s to Ukraine.
A blast from the past: "UN peacekeepers in Cyprus were physically abused, or manhandled, by members of a Turkish Cypriot security force on August 18th. The incident took place in the village of Pyla, which is in the island’s 180-kilometer long buffer zone monitored by UN peacekeepers. The zone divides the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) and the Greek dominated Republic of Cyprus."
No instructions, different spare parts, and no on-site instructors: "The war in Ukraine now somewhat resembles the Spanish Civil War as a place for “neutral” countries to test their new military equipment."
I want to believe this is true: "A former senior Russian commander has claimed that some of Moscow’s forces are on the brink of abandoning their frontline positions in Ukraine due to 'collapsing morale.'" Which makes me wary of embracing it. As I've long said, Ukraine has to be able to hit the Russians hard enough to make that come true. Can Ukraine do that?
Yeah, can't rule that out: "Prigozhin may or may not actually have been on the plane, however. He, and perhaps Chekalov as well, may simply have been assassinated elsewhere. For convenience sake, a plane crash would have provided excellent cover for their elimination." The author says there is no evidence Putin is losing control. I still don't know if Prigozhin's murder (leaving aside he fully deserved that) strengthens Putin or makes him more vulnerable to foes fearful of the same fate.
While the Wagner jet appears to have been shot down, some question that dramatic method of killing Prigozhin. I think it makes sense to claim the military is with Putin on the Wagner question.
From the "Well, Duh" files: "Russian intelligence is operating a systematic program to launder pro-Kremlin propaganda through private relationships between Russian operatives and unwitting US and western targets, according to newly declassified US intelligence." Yes, and the Soviets did it, too. Back then Democrats and the left in general were the primary laundering path. But back then nobody suggested direct or indirect government censorship was the means to combat it.
Ukrainian drones struck the Russian naval base at Perevalne, Crimea, following the ground raid that destroyed Russian radars--that detail is new to me. The ground raid was more than an information operation.
Ah, here we go: "Saudi Arabia is considering a bid from China to build its first nuclear power plant, amid fears in Washington that the Gulf state is edging closer to Beijing." The Saudis want a reactor that they can use to build nuclear warheads--a feature no Western nuclear plant would allow. Saudi outreach to China makes more sense now, no? I assume the Saudis--who funded the development--already have access to the Pakistani warhead design. Watching America enable an Iranian drive for nukes while blocking a Saudi path must be frustrating. I don't want nukes proliferating in the Middle East. Including to Iran and Saudi Arabia.
At an unknown rate, Ukraine is breaking open cluster shells to use bomblets on drones. Taking an area effects round and turning it into multiple precision weapons is interesting. And very dangerous to the users, apparently.
I never thought home security cameras were of more use than identifying your killer. And it is worse than that. Tip to Instapundit.
I didn't need a report to tell me Russian morale could be their fatal weakness: "It may be elusive and difficult to measure, but morale decides battles, and a recent report from the Royal United Services Institute notes that 'the poor training and discipline of Moscow’s forces could see the defense become uncoordinated and susceptible to collapse.'" I've long felt Russian troops could be vulnerable to this. But Ukrainian troops need to stress the defenders enough to push them over the edge. Which is harder as long as the Russians are holding fortifications and have artillery support.
Washington Post: "The Washington Post Says Democracy Demands Less Freedom of Speech[.]" Via Instapundit. And now for something completely different:
Yes, I've experienced that enraging attitude.
Russia is rebuilding two of its depleted combined arms armies (18th and 25th) in the Donbas, I hear. These are more like our corps in size. On the small end of the range. But the state of the training and equipment is unclear. I've long expected Russia to build a strategic reserve. I suspect Putin will feel compelled to use it in a major offensive. Whether it can achieve something significant, or not.
After years of being in the China skeptic minority about the China, it's amazing how quickly the consensus has turned. China's economy is in serious trouble and China is doomed in its effort to become a superpower. Of course, there's a caveat in the latter assessment: "A combination of smart policies in Washington and deep-seated defects in China precludes the Middle Kingdom from ever being a true superpower." I'm not so sure America is capable of "smart policies" these days.
Is Ukraine on the verge of a major victory because all Ukraine has to do is advance another ten miles to place Russian ground lines of supply through conquered southern Ukrainian territory in jeopardy? I'm far more in favor of having your ground forces standing on the lines of supply than relying on firepower interdiction. So I have my doubts. Ukraine may have no choice but to accept that level of victory as time and troops run out. But it isn't ideal.
So no Taliban 2.0? "On Aug. 15, 2021, the Taliban returned to power and shattered the dreams
of Afghan women and girls who once envisioned a future of limitless
possibilities." This never gets old:
So ... Oppenheimer was a communist.
Ukraine's top general says Russia is gearing up to resume its offensive in the Donbas.
Testing the platforms: "This year, U.S. Marine Corps F-35B vertical takeoff (VTOL) fighters will operate from one of the two new Japanese aircraft carriers to test their flight decks for heat resistance to the F-35B’s engines. The two Japanese carriers are called 'helicopter destroyers' that look like small aircraft carriers, which is what they actually are." A peace constitution isn't a suicide pact.
Geopolitical Futures' tentative forecasts: "The geopolitical power of the United States will expand dramatically, and deep-seated economic and social pressure may force China to revert to a state of civil strife. And we had already predicted that Ukraine would lead to turmoil the likes of which Russia has not seen since 1991." And will the EU survive? Plus other tentative forecasts. More to follow as they examine the tentative forecasts.
This is portrayed as a sign that Iran was wronged by America: "In 2020, Iran's hardline parliament passed a law requiring the government to take measures such as stepping up uranium enrichment beyond the limit set under Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal if other parties did not fully comply with the deal." But if Iran has no intention of building nuclear weapons--as it formally claims--why would it enrich uranium well beyond what it needs for electricity generation?
Talking about GERD: "Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan resumed their years-long negotiations Sunday over the controversial dam Ethiopia is building on the Nile River’s main tributary, officials said."
